Afghanistan- Birthing a New Order

Some of you may recall the “birth pangs” topic from my previous place? Afghanistan was the kick off for that entire remake project. 20 years ago. This symbolic withdrawal was undertaken to misdirect in advance of the anniversary date. Perhaps the 20 year mark could signify a return to Afghanistan? Repetition is so good for catapulting propaganda… Just thinking aloud.

Afghanistan Destabilizes Turkey, Challenges India. Targets Iran.

We can’t see the situation in Afghanistan as if it’s in a vacuum. It is not! As the Syrian refugees caused Turkey to falter. The Afghanistan refugees will do the same. Greece has got it’s big fence built in short order. Bearing in mind Greece is a big NATO spender. Amazing, I know!

Interesting as well as we are again witnessing the weaponization of refugees

Turkey: Turkey Can’t Take a New Migrant Wave from Afghanistan

“Turkey would not be able to cope with an influx of Afghan refugees, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday, noting his country already hosts five million migrants within its borders.”

Greece’s Response:
Greece builds 25-mile fence at Turkey border over migrant fears

“Greece has put up a 40km (25-mile) fence on its border with Turkey over growing concerns about a wave of migrants fleeing Afghanistan. New surveillance systems were also installed to beef up the security around the country to help monitor the situation.

Thousands of desperate people have been trying to escape Afghanistan after the country fell into the hands of the Taliban and the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani made a getaway to the UEA.”

Greece got this barrier built in lightening speed!

Pakistan’s interest in Afghanistan is to counter Indian influence

Pakistans strategic interest in Afghanistan lies in countering India’s influence”

History Repeats: “New Northern Alliance Against the Taliban is Forming in Afghanistans’ Panjshir Valley If you’re a tad older and recall the lead up to 9/11 some of this may sound familiar.

“Now, a resistance movement is forming there, led by, among others, Amrullah Saleh, who had been First Vice President of Afghanistan until the collapse of the internationally-recognized government this past weekend, and now claims to be the legitimate leader of the country.

Yesterday, in a post on Twitter, Saleh declared himself “the legitimate care taker [sic] President,” citing the constitution of the now all-but-defunct Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, which says the First Vice President assumes this role “in absence, escape, resignation or death of the President.” The Islamic Republic’s last President, Ashraf Ghani, fled the country as the Taliban advanced toward Kabul and unconfirmed rumors are swirling that he and his entourage escaped with $169 million in cash. His whereabouts were uncertain

Saleh says he is still in Afghanistan. Video footage had emerged on Aug. 16 that reportedly showing him, along with Ahmad Massoud and others, boarding an Mi-8/Mi-17 Hip-type helicopter at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul as the relocated to the Panjshir, which only lies some 70 miles north of Afghanistan’s capital.

Ahmad Massoud is the son of Ahmad Shah Massoud, who fought against the Soviets in the 1970s and 1980s and then against the Taliban in the 1990s. The elder Massoud, who became known as the “Lion of Panjshir,” was a prominent member of the Northern Alliance, which the United States leveraged to help oust the Taliban from power in 2001 following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Ahmad Shah Massoud was assassinated on Sept. 9, 2001, in a suicide attack carried out by individuals linked to the Taliban and Al Qaeda, who were posing as journalists who had come to interview him.

Amrullah Saleh was also a member of the Northern Alliance, as was Bismillah Khan Mohammadi, who had just taken up the post of Defense Minister of Afghanistan in June.

Mohammadi has endorsed Saleh’s claim as the country’s legitimate leader and has also called for the arrest of Ashraf Ghani. Saleh was also head of Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS), the country’s main intelligence agency, which had deep and controversial ties with the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), between 2004 and 2010.

History, it has a way of repeating, doesn’t it?

Militarily speaking, the Panjshir Valley, despite being currently isolated and so close to Kabul, could present a challenge, simply due to the complex nature of the terrain, for the Taliban to capture. That group was notably never able to take control of the valley during its first rise to power. Of course, at the time, the Northern Alliance also controlled other surrounding provinces, including ones that provided overland access to neighboring countries, such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to the north, through which outside support could more readily flow.

The current size of the Panjshiri Resistance is unknown, while the total size of the Taliban has been estimated to be more than 200,000, including around 60,000 core militants and another 90,000 militiamen aligned with the group.

However, no matter what the precariousness of the new Panjshiri Resistance’s physical disposition might be, its existence at all presents significant geopolitical complications for the Taliban, as well as outside powers, even just in the near term.

It’s worth noting that Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum, who had been the Fourth First Vice President of Afghanistan, and Ata Mohammed Noor, a Tajik powerbroker who had been Governor of Afghanistan northern Balkh Province, both managed to flee with forces under their command into Uzbekistan last week

Found at the wayback machine: An overview which hits on some similar themes

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