Just a few interesting reads… Recall Trump saying the attack on Iran was going to end “soon”
Trump says Iran war to end ‘soon’ as Israel claims no time limit
Not so much.
Behind the Curtain: Trump’s escalation trap
Why it matters:
Trump could wind up trapped between his caprice and the realities of war. He expects a quick, clear victory. But unlike tariffs that can be swiftly imposed and rescinded, the war’s outcome is beyond unilateral control and quick fixes. And Iran gets a say.
Trump is working to help break the Persian Gulf oil jam. But in doing so, he risks getting caught in an “escalation trap,” where a stronger force is incentivized to keep attacking to demonstrate dominance amid diminishing returns.
State of play:
Israel wants regime change in Iran and more dramatic military destruction as it weighs an invasion of Lebanon. Bibi Netanyahu has shown several times that when it comes to Iran, he has the ability to convince Trump to take his side.
Iran wants survival — and to prove it can impose pain, militarily and economically, to scare off future attacks.
And other nations want the free flow of oil and commerce through the Middle East's waters and air.What we’re watching: Averaging out the timelines mentioned by Trump and his aides, it’s fair to assume the administration expected an intense military operation lasting about 4-6 weeks. That makes April 1 (Day 33 of the war) a real gut-check moment.
But in Washington and in capitals around the world, officials are preparing for a much longer crisis. Axios' Barak Ravid tells us he's heard from three different people in the administration and in allied countries who believe the instability in the Middle East and U.S. involvement could continue until September, even if the war shifts to a low-intensity conflict.
Israel told journalists it plans at least three more weeks of attacks on thousands of additional targets in Iran.Behind the scenes:
Trump has grown accustomed to doing what he wants and then quickly improvising if things go south. But this time, some in his inner circle have what one official called “buyer’s remorse” — growing fears that attacking Iran was a mistake.
Iran and U.S. have been in direct contact in recent days, sources say
A direct communications channel between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been reactivated in recent days, according to a U.S. official and a source with knowledge.
Why it matters:
It’s not clear how substantive the messages passed between Araghchi and Witkoff were, but it’s the first known direct communication between the parties since the war started more than two weeks ago.
Behind the scenes:
The U.S. official and the source with knowledge said Araghchi sent text messages to Witkoff that focused on ending the war.
Drop Site News reported on Monday that Witkoff had sent messages to Araghchi and quoted Iranian officials who claimed the Iranian foreign minister was ignoring the White House envoy's messages.
The U.S. official claimed it was Araghchi who was attempting to engage, but told Axios the U.S. "is not talking" to Iran.
Neither of the sources spoke in detail about how many texts had been exchanged or about their content.Has there been contact? Perhaps?
Trump family profiteering-
Nothing new, in politics, however, Trump railed against Biden’s nepotism. Yet, it looks to me as if the entire Trump clan is using their political ties to make money and lots of it
The U.S. military desperately needs drone capabilities for President Donald Trump’s war in Iran, and fast. Coincidentally, his sons Eric and Donald Trump Jr., are on the case.
Indeed, the Trump brothers are pumping money into defense-tech oriented firms that have already secured Pentagon contracts, or have already put battle-tested products to market. For example, they’ve invested in Powerus, a new drone company aiming to harness its “strong relationship with Ukraine” as a means to acquire and leverage war-tried Ukrainian drone technologies in a competitive U.S. market. Having bought out several competitors, Powerus already does business with the U.S. military.
In other words, the Trump family stands to benefit financially from the war, and already are.
Eric Trump also invests in Israeli drone firm and DoD contractor Xtend, whose “low cost-per kill” attack drones have been used by the IDF in Gaza. Expanding to the U.S., the company opened an office near Tampa last summer.
Donald Trump Jr. has a $4 million stake in, and sits on the board of Unusual Machines, a drone parts startup. In December, it secured a $620 million DoD loan — the largest loan in the history of the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital — to make drone parts.