Netanyahu’s Hole

Netanyahu did not have to dig this hole for himself and the populace of Israel- This was a choice he made. That said, what ever option he chooses at this time will probably result in the dissolution of the Israeli government. Israel as a nation state has lost global narrative control. It seems to me Netanyahu did not consider this a possibility. But, here we are today.

Gaza truce or Rafah assault? Netanyahu faces political dilemma

Far-right allies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are raising pressure on the embattled leader to reject a new Gaza ceasefire, jeopardising his government’s stability if he backs away from an assault on Hamas in Rafah.

Hamas representatives were due in Cairo on Monday as mediators step up efforts towards a ceasefire deal before a threatened Israeli storming of Rafah, an area by the Egyptian border where about a million Palestinians displaced by Israel’s military campaign elsewhere in Gaza are sheltering.

But Israel says four remaining battalions of Palestinian Islamist group Hamas are entrenched there — after more than six months of war triggered by Hamas’ cross-border strike on October 7 — and that it will attack them after evacuating civilians.

Israel is not going to evacuate civilians. There is nowhere to evacuate them to.

However, if a ceasefire is agreed, the attack plans will be shelved in favour of a “period of sustained calm”, according to a source briefed on the talks, during which a few dozen hostages of Hamas will be released in return for Palestinian prisoners.

On Sunday, Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich urged Netanyahu not to back away from a ground offensive against Hamas in Rafah, even as the premier is grappling with pressure from international allies to scrap assault plans due to the risk of high civilian casualties and a humanitarian disaster.

But a ceasefire would be a humiliating defeat, Smotrich said in a video he released to the press and addressed to Netanyahu. If it fails to stamp out Hamas “a government headed by you will have no right to exist”, he said.

Smotrich was swiftly followed by police minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who reposted on X a January 30 remark made during a previous round of ceasefire talks: “Reminder: An irresponsible deal = the government’s dissolution.”

Ben-Gvir is a hot headed extremist in my opinion. A vehicle he was driving, ended up over turned after he drove through a red light.

Video has surfaced of him pulling a gun on a parking attendant.

Itamar Ben Gvir, member of Israeli parliament and head of “Otzma Yahudit” party – pulls out a gun against a young Arab parking lot security man, who’ve asked him to move his car to a proper parking place. Apparently, Ben Gvir doesn’t have an official gun permit. https://t.co/iuGPfBkUQ8 pic.twitter.com/11cysMVIVf

— Matan Golan (@MatanGolanPhoto) December 22, 2021

But Benny Gantz, a centrist former defence minister who joined Netanyahu’s emergency war cabinet in October, offered his own rebuke, saying freeing hostages took precedence over an assault on Rafah.

The rejection of a responsible deal that would secure a hostage release, Gantz said, would strip the government of legitimacy, given its October 7 security failure and the clamour in Israel for the return of hostages.

Though his popularity has soared in the polls since joining the war cabinet, Gantz lacks the power to bring down the government because together with Smotrich and Ben-Gvir’s parties, Netanyahu controls 64 of parliament’s 120 seats.

Gantz threatens to topple Israel’s gov if hostage deal blocked

Netanyahu’s position of power at risk

Successive polls have attested to his steep loss in popularity over Hamas’ October 7 attack — the worst on Jews since the Holocaust and Israel’s single deadliest day. His coalition faces a resounding election defeat, polls suggest.

At the same time, Israel’s longest serving premier is on trial on charges of corruption, in which he denies wrongdoing, and facing mounting protests over his conduct of the war.