Armenia, Azerbaijain: Nagorno Karabakh-

Doing a round up of news stories- Keep in mind Nagorno Karabakh is Azerbaijani territory. That’s the fact, the reality. Any deviation from that reality is spin.

The US and France have been meddling for a good long while in Armenia- Nagorno Karabakh is Azerbaijani territory- They took it back three years ago and Armenia acknowledged this as such

The US and France failed in Armenia: Azerbaijan got what it wanted

I’m going to cite the factual points

Thanks to this Aliyev-Pashinyan, or Baku-Erivan equation, Azerbaijan reclaimed its territories under Armenian occupation in 2020 and made Armenia (Armenia agreed to recognize that this is not their territory It was stolen through an ethnic cleansing that took place 20 yrs ago- ) recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory.

The (most recent) ceasefire announced on September 20, following a day-long military anti-terror operation, seems to have ensured the disbandment of the separatist armed forces in the local administration area of the Armenian population in Karabakh, who did not recognize the agreement, and brought that region to the table with the agenda of full integration with Azerbaijan.

Pashinyan made three mistakes during the Karabakh crisis.

  • First, he applied for membership in the International Criminal Court, which has ruled the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin for the war in Ukraine. Moscow warned of “very serious consequences”.
  • The second was Pashinyan’s decision to hold a military exercise in Armenia with the US on September 11-20.
  • The third was Armenia’s rejection of the Red Cross’ September 18 declaration that the Agdam-Hankendi (Stepanakert for Armenians) corridor secured by Azerbaijan could also be used for humanitarian transports to Nagorno-Karabakh together with the Lachin corridor. Thus, it became clear that Yerevan’s motivation was not humanitarian but political, the control over the Lachin corridor being the target.

Going to check back and see if I did cover # 3 previously

Iran, the US, and France

On September 19, when Armenian militants killed four Azerbaijani policemen with a road mine, Azerbaijan launched an operation.

Türkiye was the first to support Azerbaijan. In his speech at the UN General Assembly, President Tayyip Erdoğan said that this was a security operation within Azerbaijan’s own borders because Nagorno-Karabakh is Azerbaijani territory. (Yes, it is!)

The first and the biggest alarmist against Azerbaijan was France. ( Of course) The French Foreign Ministry urged Azerbaijan to stop the operation immediately, claiming that it jeopardized European security. Together with the United States, they called for a meeting of the UN Security Council to stop the operation.

However, two other things happened in the meantime.

First, Russia, which had military observers in Nagorno-Karabakh, announced that it would not intervene. Angered by this, Armenians took to the streets in Yerevan against Pashinyan.

Second, Iran said that Armenia had complained that Azerbaijan was going to attack it, but that it had contacted the Azeri government and was told that this was not the case. With a third of its population being Azeri Turks, Iran apparently did not want to get too much involved.

Iran took in many, many Azeri refugees when Armenia ethnically cleansed NK. Iran does not want more refugees and does not want destabilized borders- this isn’t hard to understand

Consequences for Armenia

On the phone, Aliyev told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who asked him to stop the operation, that this would only be possible if the Armenian militants laid down their arms. Within hours, before the sun had risen on September 20 at the UN headquarters in New York, it was first reported by Russian news outlets that the Armenian militants had laid down their arms, followed by the Azerbaijan Defense Ministry’s declaration of a ceasefire. On September 21, negotiations on the full integration of the Armenian region of Karabakh into Azerbaijan were to begin in the Yevlakh town in Azerbaijan.

The US and France probably thought that Russia would not be able to deal with Azerbaijan while it was busy with Ukraine, but they were wrong. This time Russia remained passive and frustrated the Armenian leadership, while Türkiye declared that it would stand by Azerbaijan militarily as it did in 2020.

In other words Russia left Armenia to it’s own foolishness. Again. Russia has no obligation to protect NK because it’s Azerbaijani territory.

Russia confirms peacekeepers were killed- but is not stating which party may be responsible

On 20 September 2023, while returning from an observation post of the Russian peacekeeping force near Dzhanyatag, a vehicle carrying Russian servicemen came under small-arms fire,” the statement read.

“As a result of the shelling, the Russian servicemen in the vehicle were killed.”

I’m uninterested in what the Armenian Ambassador stated because he’s said exactly what would be expected at this time. Maybe it’s true and maybe it isn’t

A representative from Russia’s EU press service said in a statement to Brussels Signal that they could not verify the Ambassador-designate’s claims, saying that they had “no information on the incident”.

France warns Azerbaijan against any attempt to call into question the territorial integrity of Armenia

“We will remain very vigilant against any attempt to use current events as a pretext to call into question the territorial integrity of Armenia,” Minister Colonna stated.

Strawman- this isn’t about Armenian territory

I’m of the mind that militants in Nagorno Karabakh were responsible for the deaths that kicked this latest round of instability off
Some of these militants are undoubtedly Armenian military (can’t prove it, but, it’s what I think) There are Armenian terror groups that may be present? Some are likely PKK- who have had a long affiliation with Armenians

Kremlin says all preconditions in place for Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty

Now it is unlikely that anyone will undertake to outline a time frame (for entering into a peace treaty), but given the main issue of Karabakh’s affiliation has now been resolved… it has been resolved and settled by Armenia’s decision to recognize Karabakh’s affiliation… then we can say that significant progress has been achieved,” he said.

However, there are still many technical issues before the agreement is finalized, the spokesman said.

But all the preconditions for this are there, and if there is goodwill, it will be possible to reach the finish line,” he stressed.

Relations between Baku and Yerevan have been tense since 1991, when the Armenian military occupied Karabakh, a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, and seven adjacent regions.

In the fall of 2020, Azerbaijan liberated several cities, villages, and settlements from Armenian occupation during 44 days of clashes. The war ended with a Russia-brokered cease-fire, and talks for normalization of ties began.

I would like to see Armenia stick to it’s agreements and keep the peace, but, in much the same way as Ukraine didn’t keep their agreement…I’m seriously doubtful Armenia will keep the agreement moving forward

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