A Plausible Endgame to the War in Ukraine

BalkanizationAgreed to by Russia and the West. The Ukrainians will feel betrayed as they will have no say at all because this was never really their war. The people of Ukraine will have lost their way and died enmasse for US imperialism and banker/business interests.


Unlike in World War II, which ended with the allies capturing Berlin, no one imagines the Ukrainian flag one day flying over the Kremlin. If a comprehensive Russian defeat is ruled out, there will eventually have to be a political solution. The likeliest outcome is some sort of bastard compromise—an armistice or an informal line of separation—under which Russia will hold enough occupied Ukrainian territory for Putin to claim a modicum of success, while the U.S. will be able to argue that its support was decisive in enabling Ukraine to resist Russia’s attempts at subjugation.

Such an outcome is not predetermined but it is the most probable. If it happens, Ukrainians will see it, not without reason, as betrayal, but in the end Kyiv may have little choice but to accept. The West will sweeten the pill by providing massive reconstruction aid.

This is not a happy prospect. But most wars end badly. There is no reason to think that this one will be any different.

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