Excellent explanation of the deal- I agree with this analysis!
On the Russia-US diesel arrangement This arrangement (or “deal”) could be read as a narrow transaction within an escalatory relationship: the US obtains a marginal supply buffer, maybe a slight political reprieve; while Russia obtains revenue, tactical relief, and temporary market access. Nonetheless, this episode also illustrates the still transactional and incomplete character of consolidation of states resisting US pressure. On the other side, it shows how the US-led core can use selective access, waivers and market management alongside military escalation. A form of armed trade, a characteristic of capitalism as is.
Now, I am not implying either that anti-hegemonic resistance has failed, and, neither implying that this is an inflection point for multipoarity.
Almost every country on earth still is part of this multilayered cage, they face US (and transatlantic) pressure. At the same time they are embedded in a field of domestic (differing) interests and (global) infrastructural dependencies. This, coupled with the incomplete formation of a counterforce, leads to tactical bargains.
Now, the United States may manage an energy problem in a very narrow and short-term manner; Russia may gain some room for manuevre, and Iran may face a temporary strategic disadvantage. The very divergence of these consequences shows us that a shared adversary does not yet amount to a shared horizon or project.
Multipolarity (and hence, the development of autonomous capcacities by different countries) is becoming more visible in the distribution of bargaining power. But a counter-hegemonic order would require something more: institutions capable of converting separate national survival strategies into durable mutual commitments, common capacities and a positive project for the international order.
Until then, selective deals may increase national autonomy while weakening collective solidarity. (After all, there are optics to these bargains. The US power elites knows this and uses this feature.)
The same principle holds domestically: shared hardship must be politically organized, there must be shared solidarity.— Nel B. (@noirnen) October 10, 2026