Categories
Uncategorized

Israel, Syria, Turkey and the US

Excerpts from a round up of related news articles;

Syria is about to find out if getting rid of Assad is enough to please Washington

By Ivan Timofeev, programme director of the Valdai Club.

The recent change in leadership in Syria raises questions about potential reforms of the US sanctions regime against Syria. Over the past two decades, Washington has imposed some of the most stringent restrictions against Syria. These include financial sanctions, extensive export controls, import bans, as well as visa and travel restrictions. However, the political transition now underway may be creating an environment conducive to easing sanctions pressure on Damascus. The minister of foreign affairs of the Syrian transitional government has called on the US to lift the sanctions. It’s highly likely that we will see a gradual easing of the restrictive measures. However, this process will be slow, and the legal frameworks underpinning unilateral US sanctions against Syria could remain in place for years or even decades, regardless of any political changes.

A country overwhelmed by sanctions

Syria was designated a “state sponsor of terrorism” by Washington in 1979

A comprehensive list of US claims against Syria was set out in 2003 in the “Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act” (SAA). Years before the militarized destabilization campaign
Former US President George W. Bush (R) invoked his powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and, in May 2004, through Executive Order 13338, restrictive measures were implemented against Syria

In 2006, following the assassination in early 2005 of then-Prime Minister of Lebanon Rafic Hariri, financial sanctions were expanded (Executive Order 13399). By 2008, corruption became a basis for imposing sanctions against specific Syrian individuals (Executive Order 13460).

From Republican Bush to Democrat Obama

In 2011, concerns over human rights violations and the suppression of the opposition led to further sanctions (Executive Orders 13572 and 13573). Alongside these blocking sanctions against Syrian officials and associated entities, US investments in Syria were also prohibited, as were the export or re-export of services to Syria, and any deals involving oil and petroleum products of Syrian origin (Executive Order 13582).

In 2012, human rights abuses and the use of digital surveillance systems against opposition members were added to the list of grounds for imposing sanctions (Executive Order 13606). A legal mechanism was also created to impose financial sanctions on individuals from third countries who helped Iran and Syria circumvent sanctions (Executive Order 13608). Finally, in 2019, the US Congress enacted the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, introducing restrictive measures on transactions with the Central Bank of Syria and establishing a new legal framework to impose sanctions against individuals from third countries (including Russia) who collaborated with the Syrian regime.

From Democratic Obama to President Trump (Republican)

The US imposed sanctions not only against Syria but also against its own allies. For instance, in 2019, then-President Donald Trump declared a state of emergency and created a legal mechanism for imposing sanctions against Turkish and other individuals engaged in “actions or policies that further threaten the peace, security, stability, or territorial integrity of Syria” (Executive Order 13894).

In any case, the process of lifting sanctions is expected to be cautious, and closely linked to the fulfillment of America’s political demands – if these requirements are not met, the sanctions will be quickly reinstated. Either way, sanctions will remain an important tool for influencing the political course of Syria’s new government.

No matter the party in power, each of them builds on the actions of it’s predecessor, which makes it very difficult to discern differences between parties other than of the most superficial kind

Germany calls for PKK to be integrated into Syria military

Germany’s Syria coordinator says Berlin shares the view that all armed groups in Syria should join Syria’s new government security forces.

“I want to make it very clear: The PKK is a terrorist organisation, also from Germany’s perspective, and the PKK militants in northern Syria must understand that we are now in a different situation than before the fall of Bashar al Assad,” Lindner told Table Media.

“Syria must not be used as an area of operations for the PKK to carry out attacks against Türkiye. A very clear distinction must be made between the PKK and the Syrian Kurds in the north,” he added.

Israel has declared war on the promise of a strong, democratic Syria

Israel has been very busy in Syria- In fact they were busy before the Assad government fell

When Israel launched its latest encroachment on Syrian territory in September, two months before Bashar al-Assad’s fall, there were no bullets fired. The Syrian president’s response was to ignore the expansion of the Israeli occupation and claim publicly it never happened.

From September to December, Israel added 500sq km (192sq miles) of Syrian land to the Syrian territory that it has already occupied since 1967. This area includes the entire demilitarised zone of the 1974 “separation of forces” agreement as well as areas beyond it as Israeli media claim Israeli troops control 95 percent of Quneitra province. The Israeli army has expelled scores of Syrians from their villages and towns and penetrated as far as Quneitra city and the town of al-Baath. The Syrians of the south could not celebrate the downfall of the regime they had long hoped for.

Beyond the intrinsic value of its newly “conquered” land, the expanded occupation aims to create a new factor of instability for the new Syrian government. This serves two purposes. Ideally, it becomes a pressure point on the new authorities to weaken Syrian solidarity with the Palestinian cause. But even if this fails, it will serve as a continued source of destabilisation, tension and pressure within Syrian politics that can deform the democratic trajectory of post-al-Assad Syria. Foreign occupation of territory often has this effect on domestic politics,

Israel’s entrenchment, once secured, will be very difficult to undo – and will affect the entire new political experiment in Damascus.
The approach of the new authorities has been to try to take away all pretexts for the Israeli aggression and rely on the international community to rein it in.

While declaring that Israel had “crossed the lines of engagement”, he also noted that Syria did not have the military capacity to confront the Israeli army at this point and would not allow any party to use Syrian territory to drag it into such a war.

Prospects of US withdrawal from Syria- It’s not going to happen

To prevent the resurgence of the Islamic State from northeastern Syria, the coalition’s military mission operating in Syria will continue, based on consultations with the High Military Committee, until September 2026.

Al-Ahmad asserted that Iran has left Syria with the fall of the regime, and there is no longer a need to block the area from Iran through military bases. With the regime’s fall, there is also no need to restrict eastern Syria’s resources from the Damascus government, in addition to the fact that the Islamic State no longer poses a significant threat.

He noted the presence of fighters from the Islamic State in prisons in northeastern Syria, along with cells that spread in the desert areas of Syria, but downplayed the significance of such a presence, believing that the new Syrian administration in Damascus is capable of dealing with such issues


Osama Sheikh Ali at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies believes that predicting Trump’s decisions is difficult, especially since he is a “dealmaker.” He recalled the previous experience when Trump decided in 2019 to withdraw from Syria but later changed his mind.

He added that it is unlikely that an American withdrawal will happen in the near future, especially with comments from US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who stated that the threat from the Islamic State still persists in Syria.

A delegation from the SDF, whose backbone consists of Kurdish fighters and is supported by Washington, met with the new leadership in Damascus, Ahmed al-Sharaa, on December 30, 2024, in the first talks between the two sides since the ousting of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

As mentioned the US/ PKK/YPG control of Syrian oil, alongside the heavy heavy sanctions- was the major reason for the failure of Syria’s government and the failure of it as a nation state

He added that the SDF is open to the idea of handing over the oil file to the central government in Damascus, on the condition of fair resource distribution.

They’re open to the idea…

He clarified that they are open to linking the SDF with the Syrian Ministry of Defense, provided that it is as a military bloc within the formation, not as individuals joining the Ministry of Defense.

Previously, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), which is the political umbrella of the SDF, announced in the Social Contract unveiled at the end of 2023 its conditions for establishing relations with what it called the “Democratic Republic of Syria.”

As always- share some thoughts.

2 replies on “Israel, Syria, Turkey and the US”

What’s incomprehensible to me is that the EU and UK leadership seem to want to expand the war(s)…they certainly have more to lose. With all this bluster about a Trump deal, it seems like any resolution will only be achieved on the ground, militarily. Both in Syria and the Ukraine. Meanwhile we don’t see much Israeli regime publicly expressed enthusiasm for a Gaza cease fire plan.
Here are some Russian claims, quoted from RT…

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/turkey-confirms-key-gas-pipeline-was-attacked-after-kremlin-accused-united-states

covered the Ukraine strike on the Turkish pipeline the other day

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.ca/2025/01/13/ukraine-targets-turkish-pipeline-to-eu-us-sanctions-inflationary/

It seems to me that yes, they want to expand the wars.

“it seems like any resolution will only be achieved on the ground, militarily. Both in Syria and the Ukraine.”

starting to really look as if that’s the case-

And Israel looks already to be breaking this ceasefire before it began
If Trump is claiming this as an accomplishment than Israel is already laughing in his face.

Leave a Reply

PFYT2