(Bloomberg) — Israel sees Donald Trump’s dramatic US election victory as freeing its hand to press on with the wars against Hamas and Hezbollah and even contemplate strikes aimed at disabling Iran’s nuclear program.
“You do what you have to do,” Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month when asked how to handle the showdown with Iran and its regional proxies. That carte blanche contrasts with calls by outgoing American leader Joe Biden for Netanyahu to show restraint and ensure more aid is dispensed to Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip, even as he’s stepped up military support to Israel.
The likelihood of Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities has increased, said Nadav Shtrauchler, a former Netanyahu adviser. “Bibi is the son of a historian and quite the historian himself, and he knows how to track big events for the right opportunity,” he said, referring to the Israeli leader by his nickname.
Netanyahu’s office said he called Trump on Wednesday night and they had a “warm and cordial” conversation, during which they discussed Iran and agreed to work together on Israel’s security.
An Israeli official familiar with the thinking inside the nation’s security cabinet said the handover period in the US could provide Israel with a window in which to attack against Iran’s nuclear program, which Netanyahu considers to be an existential danger.
Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think-tank in Washington, sees Israel as having the capability to attack Iran’s Natanz and Isfahan enrichment facilities, although it may struggle to destroy them without American participation and weaponry.
“The Fordow enrichment facility will be more complicated as it is buried deep underground and heavily fortified,” he said. “But Israel has demonstrated its deep penetration of Iran’s nuclear, security and intelligence apparatus, and may have some unpleasant surprises in waiting for the ayatollah.”
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House in London, is skeptical such an Israeli strike will happen without Biden’s direct support.” She expects Israel to step up its military campaigns in case it does come under pressure from the new US administration to de-escalate the situation.
“I do think that Israel will take the next 76 days as a license to weaken, if not break, Iran and the Axis of Resistance to the best of its abilities,” Vakil said, referring to Iran’s network of allies. “Israel wants to be in the strongest possible position on Jan. 21, should President Trump call time on this metastasizing war. Netanyahu is preparing for that outcome.”
JD Vance, Trump’s presumptive vice president, has said the US interest “very much is in not going to war with Iran,” while acknowledging that Israel may have other ideas.