Washington Post article making the rounds today
— As Russia steps up airstrikes and once again advances on the battlefield in Ukraine … President Volodymyr Zelensky’s options for what to do next — much less how to win the war — range from bad to worse.
Zelensky has said Ukraine will accept nothing less than the return of all its territory, including land that Russia has controlled since 2014. But with the battle lines changing little in the last year, militarily retaking the swaths of east and south Ukraine that Russia now occupies — about 20 percent of the country — appears increasingly unlikely.
Negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war — something Zelensky has rejected as long as Russian troops remain on Ukrainian land — is politically toxic
Continuing this fight is politically toxic
Ukrainian and Western officials view Zelensky as largely stuck.
“How will Zelensky get out of this situation? I have no idea,” said a Ukrainian lawmaker who, like other officials and diplomats interviewed for this article, spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid about the highly sensitive politics. “And of course it concerns me.”
Most tricky for Zelensky will be managing his own country’s expectations. Support for him among Ukrainians remains high, (doubtful, very doubtful) but after two years of war and steep casualties, the “solidarity is fraying,” a Western diplomat in Kyiv said.
Kidnapping people off the streets- Increasing protests against the Zelensky mode of recruiting soldiers- Ukrainians fleeing to avoid being kidnapped and sent to the front lines- Solidarity is frayed.
This was supposed to be an election year for Zelensky, but Ukraine’s constitution prohibits elections under martial law, and some officials here worry that Russia will try to cast Zelensky as an illegitimate ruler once he is serving longer than his elected five-year term
Zelensky will also have to live up to his own promise — which he restates regularly — of returning Ukraine to its 1991 borders, including Crimea
Pessimism about Ukraine’s battlefield chances has increased in recent months as Russian forces have regained the initiative on the battlefield, largely because Ukrainians are short on troops and ammunition.
“Look, we have been without ammunition for half a year already. Not enough of it, at least,” a senior Ukrainian official said. “Well okay, it will get worse. And so what? What other options are there? If partners who have promised to give us ammunition don’t give it, of course the situation gets worse. But the image of the U.S. will get worse in the world.”
Between the mess in Ukraine and the ethnic cleansing of Palestine/Gaza can the US possibly look worse?
“Ukraine does not have the power to make another offensive,” said one Western ambassador. “There are two scenarios. One scenario is they get the support to maintain defensive lines. … The second is there is not enough support and Ukraine will defend itself anyway, desperately and with less manpower.”
If Kyiv faces Russian forces with inadequate support this year, the ambassador said, there will be increased casualties and territorial losses, putting Ukraine on the back foot.
Ukraine must meet some needs on its own. Field commanders have reported troop shortages along the front line, especially infantry who deploy at the forwardmost positions. Military commanders have pushed for a large-scale mobilization but Zelensky has voiced doubt even as Kyiv says Moscow is planning to conscript 300,000 more soldiers.
Zelensky recently signed a law that lowered Ukraine’s minimum draft age to 25, but he has said mobilizing some 500,000 more troops, as Ukraine’s former commander in chief suggested, won’t happen. Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the new military chief, has said the 500,000 figure was “significantly reduced” after a personnel audit. Meanwhile, a draft law in parliament to widen the parameters of who can be conscripted has undergone thousands of amendments.
A large-scale mobilization would also pose economic challenges. The money for soldier salaries cannot directly come from foreign aid, and some industries already face labor shortages. Ukraine’s economy is under strain from repeated missile and drone attacks targeting energy infrastructure, which also scare away foreign business investment.
So how long can Ukraine withstand being at war? The Ukrainian lawmaker said the country will not survive the status quo for another 10 years. Others, however, think the fight could go on even longer.