Another major geopolitical shift is happening in Europe, this time in the South Caucasus.. This was stated by former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen in an op-ed for Le Monde daily, in which he called on Brussels to leave its policy of maintaining neutrality between Armenia, which has preferred the line of the West, and Azerbaijan, which is establishing itself in the camp of aggressive autocracies under Russian influence.
This claim that Azerbaijan is establishing itself under the autocractic influence of Russia explains most of the perception managing narrative presented via the media lately.
“Despite a historic, economic, energy, and military dependence on Russia – and the physical presence of thousands of Russian troops on its soil – the Armenian government has made a bold and concerted effort to consolidate Armenia’s democracy and build closer relations with the democratic West.
It should come as no surprise that this op ed was published in Le Monde, given the outsized role France has been playing in Armenia- for some time now.
This reorientation takes time, but it also requires the European Union to adopt a more ambitious strategy towards Armenia’s democracy. This must start by ending the misguided idea that the European Union (EU) should be a neutral actor between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Europe should play a role in mediating negotiations towards a lasting peace agreement. But its approach must reflect the reality that Armenia has chosen the community of European democracies, while Azerbaijan sits in the camp of aggressive autocracies. A lack of European clarity and ambition could endanger Armenia’s young democracy and jeopardize its geopolitical pivot.
The EU hasn’t been neutral for a while- not that I’ve noticed.
This new approach should start at the April 5 trilateral summit in Brussels, where European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will host Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Armenia has already frozen relations with the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, organized military exercises with the United States, and sought to expand its economic ties with democratic economies.