Perhaps more hopium is needed?
Aid and politics
Another year of war in Europe has undoubtedly drained Western military resources and the political appetite to maintain massive amounts of military aid for Ukraine.
Ongoing funding for Ukraine is far from secure in 2024 given the fact that the U.S. presidential election could herald a seismic change in the attitude toward, and support for Kyiv.
Specifically, all eyes are on former U.S. president and Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, who cultivated close relations with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during his presidency.
There are concerns that, given Trump’s previous good relations with Moscow and “America First” policy, aid for Ukraine could be shelved rapidly. Defense analysts agree that much of the outlook for Ukraine is dependent on the outcome of the U.S. vote.
“I think it’s important to understand the extent to which Ukraine is reliant on the U.S. right now, because it’s quite significantly more reliant on the U.S. than it is on the EU,” Sam Cranny-Evans, defense analyst at the Royal United Services Institute defense think tank told CNBC.
“If the U.S. election goes in a way that is not in Ukraine’s favor, coupled with the fact that the EU is not really stepping up to the plate — it’s ammunition production is so far off what it should have been by now to give Ukraine a hope of surviving and a hope of victory — it’s not a very cheery prediction for 2024.
“In the case of a Republican winning the presidential election next year, especially if that’s Donald Trump, who seems to be the front runner, and [if] funding is decreased substantially, then there will be increased pressure on Ukraine to negotiate,” Mario Bikarski, a Europe and Russia analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), told CNBC.
I’d welcome less warfare for 2024. How about you?