Immunity deficit/naivety Increases Flu and RSV

Flu and colds are back with a vengeance — why now?

Hensley says that this is because the population “is more immunologically naive than what we would expect in most years”. Normally, children get infected by their second birthday. Now, “you’re going to end up having kids that are three, four years of age right now who have never seen RSV”.

For older children and adults who have been previously infected, the problem is waning immunity. In the absence of exposure to a virus, antibody levels decline. In a typical year, “we might get exposed to a small bit of virus and your body fights it off”, says John Tregoning, an immunologist at Imperial College London. But “that kind of asymptomatic boosting maybe hasn’t happened in the last few years”.

Immunity debt

But COVID-19 restrictions started being lifted last year. So why is the surge kicking in only now? Hensley was concerned that flu and RSV would rebound last year. But the influenza season overall was mild in the Northern Hemisphere. And although RSV infections did rise, the peak was lower than in pre-pandemic years and came in the summer of 2021 — odd timing that might have helped to dampen the spread of the virus. Factors such as temperature and humidity play a part in transmitting the virus, and that peak “was not [at] a time that was environmentally favourable to RSV”, says Virginia Pitzer, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health in New Haven, Connecticut.

Hensley says that this is because the population “is more immunologically naive than what we would expect in most years”. Normally, children get infected by their second birthday. Now, “you’re going to end up having kids that are three, four years of age right now who have never seen RSV”.

For older children and adults who have been previously infected, the problem is waning immunity. In the absence of exposure to a virus, antibody levels decline. In a typical year, “we might get exposed to a small bit of virus and your body fights it off”, says John Tregoning, an immunologist at Imperial College London. But “that kind of asymptomatic boosting maybe hasn’t happened in the last few years”.

Rhinovirus mystery

There is also a lot that researchers still don’t understand about seasonal viruses. For example, COVID-19 restrictions seemed to have little impact on one type of seasonal virus, rhinoviruses — which are the most common cause of colds — for reasons that aren’t entirely understood. That might be because of their hardiness, Miller says. They’re less prone to desiccation and can persist for longer in the environment.

Whaaaat the masks didn’t stop rhinovirus from spreading?! Oh my goodness!

But she ( Miller) says: “I do expect that this winter is probably going to be the last unusual winter.”

Unless the covid cult creates conditions for continuity of the abnormal