https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-15/oil-reserves-spent-imf-us-iran-war/106918074
In short:
The global economy was spared from the worst of the biggest oil shock in 50 years because of large oil reserves, according to the International Monetary Fund.
It says lower consumption in Asia and higher oil production outside of the Gulf helped absorb further price shocks.
What’s next?
Experts say global oil prices are likely to increase as reserves dwindle.
Depleted oil reserves have left economies vulnerable to soaring fuel prices as the US-Iran conflict resumes, the IMF has warned.
Before the war began, global oil supplies were at about 2 million barrels a day above demand.
The IMF the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had not led to a “full-blown price shock” because the reserves absorbed what the market could not.
It said that by the end of May oil reserves were estimated to be about 1.2 billion barrels, which was half the level prior to the conflict.
“That cushion, however, has been spent,” the IMF said.
“If the disruption were to persist at current rates, that lower bound would be reached by early 2027.“
“Well before that point, prices would likely move sharply higher, as the market would effectively be operating without a safety net.”
Trump and Bibi look like they want to keep this one going..