Trump’s Iran deal has collapsed leaving the US with few good options- Russia & Iran make a gas deal

CFR

So much for the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), signed by Trump on June 18 at Versailles. It was essentially a lucrative deal for Iran to reopen the strait—the conduit for 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas. Trump pledged many billions of dollars in economic relief for Iran by lifting sanctions, unfreezing Iranian funds, and providing reconstruction assistance.

This deal was widely criticized as an act of appeasement on Trump’s part after failing to reopen the waterway by military force or to achieve his other military objectives—the overthrow of the Iranian regime and the abandonment of its nuclear program, its missile program, and its support for terrorist proxies across the region.

Yet, hardliners in the Iranian regime are apparently not satisfied to pocket the lucrative gains their country could accrue from this deal.

“Not satisfied to pocket the lucrative gains”

This is rubbish, because ships were attempting to negate the agreement by using Oman’s coastline to avoid Iran making any “lucrative gains” In other words, they were not following the MOU signed between the US and Iran

A fact that is acknowledged right in the oped and I quote

“Iran attacked merchant ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz near the Oman coast, rather than the Iranian shoreline.”

Trump has, predictably, responded by bombing Iran and reinstituting the U.S. blockade while claiming that the U.S. will charge its own tolls on traffic through the strait, thereby seemingly abandoning the United States’ age-old commitment to freedom of navigation through international waterways.

Trump’s threat to collect tolls is probably just bluster, but the bombing and the blockade are real. The question is what will they accomplish?

Yes, Trump is claiming he’s going to collect 20 percent fees on ships

President Donald Trump announced that the United States is reinstating a naval blockade targeting Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and said Washington would impose a 20% charge on cargo passing through the strategic waterway.

Back to CFR oped

The United States and Israel bombed Iran for thirty-nine days (February 28-April 8) without overthrowing the regime or forcing it to give in to U.S. and Israeli demands. Iran ultimately made Trump back down and agree to a humiliating MOU by holding the Strait of Hormuz and the energy infrastructure of U.S. Persian Gulf allies hostage. Trump is in a weaker position to pressure Iran today, after having let the regime cash in on his temporary lifting of sanctions; by one estimate, Iran earned at least $5 billion in oil exports since the United States lifted its blockade on June 17.

The fundamental problem, as I previously noted, is that for all of Trump’s bluster—and that of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth—they have no good military options to bring Iran to its knees. Truly defeating Iran and overthrowing its regime would require an invasion by hundreds of thousands of U.S. troops. This contingency is impossible to imagine given how unpopular the war already is with the American public. In one recent poll, 60 percent of those surveyed said the Iran war was not worth it.

Trump is left facing the same dilemma as many of his predecessors in the Oval Office: He is fighting a limited war with limited means and, not surprisingly, achieving limited results, at best. The most that can be said for Trump’s war is that it has degraded Iranian military capabilities, but Iranian drones and missiles remain as much of a threat as ever, and Iran has actually increased its ability to blackmail the world since the war began. Even after the signing of the MOU, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz never returned to prewar levels. Now, with Iran claiming the waterway is closed, even fewer ships are likely to pass through it.

Trump is left with an unpalatable choice: Either acquiesce to Iran charging a toll for traffic through the strait or else run the significant risks of military escalation. More than four months in, the Iran war once again shows why presidents should be wary of starting wars of choice based on wishful thinking and without an obvious exit strategy.

Russia, Iran said to be close to a gas deal

Russia’s Minister of Energy Sergey Tsivilev and Iran’s Minister of Petroleum Mohsen Paknejad met today as the two sides move closer than ever to finalizing a gas trade agreement between the two countries, Iran’s Shana agency reported on Monday, AzerNEWS reports.

Paknejad told the agency that this is a “subject whose negotiations have seen significant progress over the past months” and that “the main clauses of this contract have been agreed upon.”

According to the minister, only two clauses that require supplementary negotiations remain. The move comes as Russian chief diplomat Sergey Lavrov is preparing to visit Tehran.

Mr Lavrov’s visit is highly suggestive that Russia and Iran are going to make this deal.