What is happening between Azerbaijan and Russia: A struggle for corridors

You may have heard there are issues between these 2 nations?Below is an opinion piece that may shed light on the situation.

Engin Ozer is a Turkish political scientist. The article expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the view of News.Az.

In recent months, relations between Azerbaijan and Russia have grown increasingly strained. Beneath the surface of diplomatic formality lies a complex geopolitical struggle centered on control over key transport routes and participation in global initiatives—most notably, China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Azerbaijan today holds one of the most strategic positions in this project, serving as a crucial transit hub connecting China with Europe and the Middle East. Of particular importance in this context is the anticipated launch of the Zangezur Corridor, the final missing link in the creation of a direct overland route from Asia to Europe. The corridor is expected to open in the near future.

Adding to the tensions are recent developments in Armenia, where authorities have initiated criminal proceedings against former National Security Service chief Artur Vanetsyan, General Karapetyan, and several clerics. Many experts interpret these actions as signs of a broader effort to eliminate pro-Russian elements within the Armenian establishment and accelerate Yerevan’s political realignment toward the West and closer regional cooperation with Türkiye.

Yes, I think the arrests in Armenia are part of a broader effort to eliminate pro- Russian elements with Armenia. Not sure if this is about realigning towards Turkey.

Against this backdrop, Russia is taking steps to obstruct the development of the Belt and Road Initiative in the South Caucasus by advancing its own alternative: the North–South Transport Corridor. This route is intended to run through Azerbaijan, Iran, and India, linking Russia to the markets of South Asia. Moscow has already proposed that Georgia join the project, with specific reference to the development of the Anaklia port on the Black Sea—currently under effective Chinese control.

In essence, all major developments currently unfolding in the South Caucasus—from high-level diplomatic visits to high-profile arrests—are tied to the broader contest over Eurasia’s future logistical architecture. Control over these corridors represents not only economic prosperity but also far-reaching political influence.

While an outright military confrontation between Russia and Azerbaijan remains unlikely—neither Moscow nor Baku is interested in open hostilities—diplomatic and political tensions are expected to rise. It is entirely plausible that Azerbaijan may reconsider or even annul the Declaration on Allied Interaction signed with Russia in 2022, and continue to deepen its military partnership with Türkiye.

I’d personally be surprised if Azerbaijan would annul the Declaration.

The possibility of a so-called “Special Military Operation 2” against Azerbaijan can be ruled out. If Russia were to resort to military action in the region, it would most likely occur through Georgian territory and target Armenia, not Azerbaijan. Baku is well-armed, closely allied with Türkiye, and increasingly influential on the international stage.