Suddenly articles are appearing covering the many groups that have been backed by the NATO “defense organization”, CIA , Mossad, MI6 etc.,
Recently I’d mentioned the Kurdish group that has been working with the US
But they aren’t the only ones- Covered in an oped at the Royal United Institute for Defense and Security Studies
The Shah’s heir and a U.S. (Israeli) favorite
Much of the media’s focus has centered on the supporters of Reza Pahlavi, the heir to the throne of the monarchy that was abolished by the 1979 revolution. The Pahlavi clan is openly supported by Israeli prime minister Netanyahu, and in return, they supported Israel’s attack. They are also close to the Americans, not least because Reza is based there and has been actively lobbying American policymakers and congressmen. Much of the Iranian diaspora is made up of people who are associated with the monarchy in one way or another, so it is no surprise that Pahlavi enjoys high support among them.
The Pahlavi clan is openly supported by Israeli prime minister Netanyahu
The old opposition
There are several other older opposition groups that operate in much the same way as the Pahlavi supporters — that is, just beneath the surface, lacking any real underground structure (or at least, that’s the way they operate according to sources in the IRGC). Among them are various groups inspired by the figure of Mohammad Mossadeq, the prime minister who was overthrown in 1953 via an allegedly UK- and US-sponsored coup, which eventually led to the restoration of the absolute monarchy.
The most important of these movements are the Jabhe Milli (National Front) and the Nezhat Azadi Iran (Freedom Movement of Iran), though it does not appear that either are influential outside of some select intellectual circles. The same applies to the various groups that split off from the Islamic Republic, such as the Sazman Mujahidin Enqelab Islami Iran (Organization of the Mujahedin of the Islamic Revolution of Iran), a leftist-Islamist group that was outlawed in 2009. More influential appears to be the reformist Green Movement, which was the protagonist of the 2009 protests. The security apparatus of the Islamic Republic monitors these groups, but up to now it has not made any noticeable effort to eradicate them.
Then there are the remnants of the old left, which did not take up arms against the Khomeinists in the early 1980s but were outlawed nonetheless. Of these groups, the Tudeh (Communist Party) might have the largest underground networks, with perhaps 2,000 members, according to an IRGC source.
One component of the ‘old opposition’ that has long been ready to join hands with the Americans — and which might accept an opportunity to discreetly cooperate with the Israelis, though not with the Pahlavis — is the Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK, lit. “People’s Mujahidin”), which was the most active violent opposition group against the Islamic Republic in the early 1980s before being crushed and forced to flee to Iraq, where it allied with Saddam Hussein until the end of the Iran-Iraq war.
‘old opposition’ that has long been ready to join hands with the Americans — and which might accept an opportunity to discreetly cooperate with the Israelis,
The MEK – definitely an interesting terrorist/not terrorist group
Ethnic movements
All these groups compete for the support of the 60% or so of Iranians who are Persian speakers. There appears to be no significant organised opposition group active among the country’s main minority, the Azeris (16%).
Turkiye’s Grey Wolves have long tried to infiltrate the region and might have gained some support among those harboring anti-Kurdish sentiments (Kurds and Azeris co-exist in Iran’s West Azerbaijan Province). There is also a long tradition of opposition to the central powers in Tehran coming from among smaller minorities, such as the Kurds and Baluchis.
I could be mistaken, but, the Grey Wolves have long struck me as a “stay behind” army- Tied to NATO. Recall their assassination attempt on Pope John Paul II? If anyone has a different opinion, feel free. I view them as the “right wing” to the Kurdish PKK “left wing”
The Kurds have a significant underground presence among the Sunni Kurdish population and also boast a number of armed groups based in Iraq. Among those believed to be most popular inside Iranian Kurdistan is the Hizb Demokratik Kurdistan Iran (Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan), even if it is well past its peak period of influence.
It mostly operated in the tribal parts of Iranian Kurdistan but also in the city of Mahabad. The IRGC reckoned in 2019 that the party maintains a strong presence, especially in the Shno area (where Iran’s borders with Turkiye and Iraq meet), with up to 900 activists. Up to 2,000 of its most active members have taken refuge in Iraq, according to Kurdish opposition sources.
Similarly, the leftist KOMALA is based in Iraq and maintains underground activities in Iran. According to the IRGC, the latter group controls around 450 armed militants along the border. Notably, KOMALA played a significant role in the 2005 urban uprising in Mahabad.
Among the Kurds, the two groups that have the best prepared fighters are the PAK (Parti Azadi Kurdistan) and the PJAK (Partiya Jiyana Azade Kurdistane, or Kurdistan Free Life Party). The PAK, which was formed by radical leftists in 1991, participated in the campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq. The IRGC estimates the group’s strength at 400 fighters, who are based in Iraq. Inside Iran it has engaged in some underground activities in the areas of Kermanshah and Illam, but it has not been active there militarily.
Conversely, the PJAK is the only Kurdish group to have carried out significant armed activities inside Iran over the last 20 years, but it is mostly known to be linked to the Turkish PKK. The IRGC in 2019 rated the PJAK as the best-resourced and most active armed opposition group, with 2,400 members. The problem is that while the other opposition groups tend to cooperate with each other, they all have poor relations with the PJAK, which they accuse of having ambitions that go well beyond Iranian Kurdistan.
Israeli sources say that some Kurdish groups have approached Jerusalem for support, and the PAK has let it be known that it is available to participate in an uprising.However, it is not clear whether Israeli direct engagement is feasible, nor whether the Americans would want to get drawn into an overt regime change operation. Moreover, the PAK has no sympathy for Reza Pahlavi. Other Kurdish groups have distanced themselves from the Israelis. All Kurdish groups have stated their support for demonstrations and popular revolts against the regime.
Israeli sources say that some Kurdish groups have approached Jerusalem for support, and the PAK has let it be known that it is available to participate in an uprising.
There are also several Baluchi groups active against the Islamic Republic, but most of them seem to be more concerned with smuggling than with fighting.
The one that appears to have significant military capabilities is the Islamist Jaysh al-Adl, whose members do not hide their connection to Israel.In 2019 the IRGC believed that the group had 900 fighters, but IRGC sources later acknowledged that this might be an underestimate. Moreover, the group appears to have been arming in recent months. There is no doubt that Jaysh al-Adl would be game for an offensive against the regime, but it is far from clear that it would be interested in cooperating with other opposition groups in undertaking such an effort.
The one that appears to have significant military capabilities is the Islamist Jaysh al-Adl, whose members do not hide their connection to Israel.
Collapse instead of revolution
Before launching its strikes on the night of June 21-22, the U.S. government reportedly assured Iran that Washington’s aim was not regime change. However, the Netanyahu government’s main aim is clearly the downfall of the ayatollahs. On 18 June, Iranian state TV was jammed and an invitation to rise up against the regime was broadcast in place of regular programming. However, it will take more than that to fragment the pro-regime forces inside the country.
Some within the opposition doubted the Israeli agenda all along. After all, Israeli media outlets like the Jerusalem Post openly tout the fragmentation of Iran into a Libya-like state. Some note that looking at the Israelis’ treatment of Gaza’s residents makes it hard to believe that they might have good intentions concerning Iran.
Looking at the Israelis’ treatment of Gaza’s residents makes it hard to believe that they might have good intentions concerning Iran.