So many opinions. Variations in headlines. The meeting hasn’t taken place as of yet, but, the speculation runs wild!
So, just a few things to consider from two articles- Canadian and UK.
There are no certainties when dealing with Donald Trump, but you can take this to the bank: Whether the U.S. President is on his best behaviour or his worst when meeting Mark Carney on Tuesday, the Prime Minister wins.
If the President is civil, and calls his guest “Prime Minister,” then Mr. Carney’s trip to Washington will be hailed as a success. Same thing if the confab results in a walking back of some U.S. tariffs, or even something as modest as talk of future talks about tariffs.
The PM has rightly set expectations low, saying last week that nobody should look for the meet-and-greet to produce the “white smoke” of a papal conclave. If the only result of the meeting is that nothing bad happens, Canadians will see Mark Carney as having scored.
But if Mr. Trump is at his worst – if his Oval Office walk-up music is Enter Sandman and his guest is subjected to the full Zelensky – then Mr. Carney also wins. His campaign line about the old relationship with the U.S. being “over” would be proven right. A Trump ambush of the PM would be an attack on all Canadians, who would rally ‘round the flag. Elbows up and join the donnybrook.In the short-run, Mr. Carney is in a no-lose position.
Another advantage Canada has in dealing with Mr. Trump is that, as part of his action-before-thought approach, he has started a trade war against the entire world. We’ve got lots of company.
Mr. Trump’s faithlessness, even to policies he touted five minutes ago, is good news for Canada. Everything is potentially up for negotiation and reconsideration. But that very faithlessness, extending of course to things he negotiated and celebrated – hey there, United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement – means that any deal made with him may not be worth the paper it‘s printed on.
Still, Carney’s “antagonistic” rhetoric towards Trump might be something he might regret when faced with the economic realities of Canada’s dependence on the United States, said Ryan Hurl, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto.
“I suspect he backs away from the idea that our relationship with the United States is ‘over’ and he might modify it to say that our relationship is ‘changing’,” said Hurl. “Trade negotiations are never completely static and hopefully he can present his negotiations with Trump as something that is better for Canada, and not simply as bending the knee to President Trump.”
The headwinds the prime minister faces in Tuesday’s White House meeting are already sufficiently strong, on both the economic and partisan fronts.
“If Carney presents himself as making concessions to Trump to preserve the trading relationship between the two countries, the Conservative party will be able to take advantage of this,” said Hurl. “But if no agreements can be made, Canadians are going to start feeling the political the economic fallout very quickly.”
Carney ran much of his brief federal election campaign on the idea that Canada needed to seek out new trade markets. And while a pledge to reshape Canada’s economic structure was welcomed by voters, many of the structural changes implied by such a policy shift – including eliminating internal trade barriers and getting more Canadian products to foreign markers – will take time. “You can’t just snap your fingers and change port capacity. That is a generational project,” said Hurl.
Meanwhile, Trump is also starting to face domestic pressure: his decision to launch a trade war with allies and foes alike has started to harm him in public opinion as American companies warn they were prepared to raise costs for consumers.
“Trump has probably overreached on trade issues and we’re really starting to see the push back now. With questions over consumer confidence and the direction of the country, we can be part of the solution to Trump’s self-inflicted problem,” said Robertson.
He pointed to Canada’s “relatively strong” bargaining position as the two delegations meet at the White House.
Canada’s federal government has invested in increased border checks, and fentanyl interceptions – the supposed pretext for Trump’s tariffs – have dropped further from a low starting point.
The Fentanyl at the border was just that, a pretext for Trump’s tariffs. If Trump was serious about punishing the perps for the opioid crisis the Sacklers (Purdue Pharma) would all be imprisoned and their vast wealth confiscated.
Trade officials anticipate the United States will request changes to the USMCA free trade agreement, which is due for negotiations in 2026. And despite Trump’s repeated assertions that the United States doesn’t need Canada’s resources, experts say potash, steel and aluminum remain key purchases for American farmers and manufacturers.
“And if, for example, they raise the issue of dairy and supply management, we can ask, ‘What do you want here? Do you want more access for dairy products? Because you’re not using your quota right now. And you also practice supply management when it comes to rice and sugar and cotton. So if you want to negotiate this, then we’ve got the process,” said Robertson. “At the end of the day, what’s really important about this meeting, as my kids would say, is the ‘vibe’ between the two. That’s almost more important than whatever processes are committed to moving forward.”
Those close to the prime minister say he was approaching the meeting like he did during debate preparations in the federal election: preparing for all possible iterations of the unpredictable president.
“With Trump, you’re just never sure on any day where he is, what’s going on in his head and who was the last person to talk to him before in the meeting,” said Robertson. “But one thing we know about Carney, he has always been two things: disciplined and prepared.”