Going long on this news round up- First, NYT’s
After meeting with Russian negotiators to discuss the future of the war in Ukraine, Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled a dramatic reset in relations with the Kremlin, trumpeting “the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians.”
Hours later, though, Mr. Rubio sought to reassure nervous European allies that the talks did not represent an abrupt departure from American policies, as many feared.
Rather, the talks this week in Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, were meant as a first step in a process, a test of whether the Kremlin was serious about making a deal, Mr. Rubio said in a call with several European diplomats.
European officials were not sure what to make of Mr. Rubio’s measured assessment, which came as leaders on the continent struggled to make sense of the apparent renewal of the relationship between Washington and Moscow.
Mr. Rubio told the Europeans that no, the Trump administration had no plans to impose the terms of any bilateral agreement with Russia on Ukraine and Europe, according to a summary of the call prepared by European officials.
No, he said, the administration would not lift U.S. sanctions on Russia absent a noticeable change in Moscow’s behavior, though he left the door open to easing some sanctions in limited ways if the Russians began taking steps that the administration was seeking.
How would the US define a notable change in Moscow’s behaviour?
And yes, Mr. Rubio said, the Trump administration was cleareyed that Russia could be attempting to use the talks to sow divisions in the West or to ease its isolation on the international stage, according to the summary, which was reviewed by The New York Times.
The State Department did not respond to a request for comment on Mr. Rubio’s discussion with the Europeans.
After years of working to isolate the Kremlin following its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the White House under President Trump has
appearedto flip the script.“I hear that they’re upset about not having a seat,” Mr. Trump said on Tuesday, speaking to reporters at Mar-a-Lago, his estate in Florida. “Just a half-baked negotiator could have settled this years ago without, I think, without the loss of much land, very little land. Without the loss of any lives.”
After meeting with Russian officials for more than four hours in Riyadh on Tuesday, Mr. Rubio provided few details publicly about what was achieved. He said Russia and the United States had agreed to work on a peace settlement for Ukraine, lauding Mr. Trump as “the only leader in the world” who could have pulled off such a rapprochement between longtime adversaries.
Part of the call was devoted to explaining why the Ukrainians and the Europeans were not included in the talks.
It was not, Mr. Rubio said, because the United States was sidelining its allies, as Mr. Trump’s remarks may have suggested. Rather, he said, much of the conversation had centered on bilateral issues between the United States and Russia. This included opening a discussion about lifting restrictions on their embassies, which have been effectively shuttered in both countries because of the many diplomats who have been expelled.
Mr. Rubio ended the call, according to the summary, by promising to keep America’s allies informed and by urging unity.
Russiamatters.org
-The U.S. signaled that sanctions relief for Russia could be on the table in talks over the war in Ukraine, Bloomberg reported. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Feb. 20 that the U.S. is prepared to either ramp up or take down penalties based on the Kremlin’s willingness to negotiate. Meanwhile, Putin has ordered his cabinet to prepare for the return of Western companies, according to FT. He also referred to “the economy, and our joint activities on global energy markets” when describing on Feb. 19 the agenda of his interactions with Trump. A handful of U.S. companies have expressed tentative interest in resuming their Russian operations, and France’s Renault would not rule out a return to Russia either, according to FT.
–Russia gained 190 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about 2 Martha’s Vineyard islands) in the past month, according to the Feb. 19, 2025, issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. The monthly rate of the Russian advance may have slowed down recently, but it is still nearly five times higher this winter than last, according to the card. –Moreover, Russian troops are now less than three miles from the borders of Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, “marking the fifth region to face partial Russian occupation and expanding Moscow’s control over the war-torn country,” according to NYT. As of the afternoon of Feb. 21, the DeepState map showed Russian forces approaching the Donetsk region’s Udachne settlement, which is less than 3 miles on a straight line from this region’s border with the Dnipropetrovsk region.
–Ukraine and Russia are likely to reach a ceasefire in 2025, according to Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence.
Under a new leader
–Russia, which has seen its air base in Syria attacked by UAVs this week, will likely keep a reduced military presence in Syria, according to Bloomberg.
I do think Russia will maintain a reduced military presence in Syria
Russian Oil Vanishes from Tracking in Gulf of Oman
How do they do this type of stuff?
(Bloomberg) — A cargo of Russian oil that’s under heavy US sanctions vanished from global tracking systems, evidence of how difficult it will be to keep track of — and enforce — the measures.
The 900-foot oil tanker Meru left Murmansk in the Arctic Sea on Jan. 20, ten days after the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed most-aggressive sanctions on Russia’s oil trade — especially those from the Arctic.
The Meru was initially destined for the Indian port of Vadinar, according to shipping information seen by Bloomberg — even if the tanker’s digital tracking system showed “Suez” until it reached the southern Red Sea. At that point, it was changed to “Persian Gulf.”
While the Meru is now visible again on the industry’s Automatic Identification System, it disappeared from vessel tracking systems for just long enough for its cargo to be switched onto another as-yet-unidentified ship.
The Meru’s signals show it arrived at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz — an area favored for the clandestine switching of cargoes from one vessel to another — on Tuesday, leaving again the following day and reporting a draft indicating that it had offloaded its cargo.
How about that peace making in the Middle East?
US Pressures Iraq to Resume Kurdish Oil Exports- This suggests that the US doesn’t want Iranian oil on the market, but, prices will rise as will inflation, so the US is pushing Iraq to resume these exports. The US has A LOT of leverage over Iraq. Iraq is, after all, still heavily occupied by the US.
ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – The United States is intensifying its efforts to push Iraq into resuming Kurdish oil exports, warning Baghdad that failure to do so could result in sanctions, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
This move is seen as part of Washington’s broader strategy to limit Iran’s oil revenues and curb its influence in Iraq and the region.
U.S. Leverage on Baghdad
The pressure from the U.S. comes as President Donald Trump’s administration seeks to counter Iran’s oil exports by increasing global supply from alternative sources, including the Kurdistan Region.
A resumption of Kurdish oil exports, which have been halted since 2023, could help balance global oil markets, especially amid Washington’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.
FDD is an Israel centric think tank and the slant is obvious.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei thrust a long-simmering hostage controversy into the headlines on February 19. Speaking with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Tehran, Khamenei requested that Doha release $6 billion frozen in a Qatari bank that the Biden administration unblocked in 2023 as ransom in exchange for American citizens imprisoned in Iran. After extolling Qatar as “a friendly and brotherly country” despite “unresolved issues,” the supreme leader encouraged Sheikh Tamim to sidestep the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign and open the faucet.
Iran Readies Military For Possible Attack
Iran’s armed forces are set to begin large-scale military exercises in a further signal of Tehran’s preparations for conflict as tensions escalate with Israel and the United States over its nuclear program. The maneuvers come as United States B-52 bombers carried out their second flyover in the Middle East within 48 hours, a show of force that underscores growing regional uncertainty.
Sure looks as if the US is on board with attacking Iran. To Israel’s benefit. To impede the belt and road project. To increase regional instability.
Iran threatens airstrikes on Iraq’s Kurdish region over opposition presence
Iran has warned Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) that it may launch airstrikes against Iranian opposition groups based in the Kurdish region if the security agreement between Baghdad and Tehran is not fully implemented, sources familiar with the matter told Shafaq News.
According to the sources, Tehran conveyed to Baghdad that its decision to proceed with military action hinges on the enforcement of the security pact signed by the two countries. In response, the Iraqi government is exerting diplomatic and political pressure on Iran to prevent escalation.
“Iranian officials have informed Iraqi security and political figures that they are preparing a military strike on opposition groups in the Kurdistan Region unless Baghdad and Erbil adhere to the terms of the agreement,” one source said.
The sources added that Iran has accused Iranian opposition factions in the Kurdistan Region of staging a military parade in recent days, viewing it as a provocation. “This development has prompted Iran to move forward with preparations for a potential attack,” the source said.
Iran has long accused Kurdish opposition groups based in northern Iraq of smuggling arms and fighters into Iran to conduct attacks and foment unrest. Some of these groups advocate for the secession of Iran’s northwestern Kurdistan province, which borders Iraq.
In an effort to create that Israel 2.0 that I’ve written about for years- The US is and has been fully on board with this project
In 2023, Iraq and Iran signed a security agreement aimed at tightening border control and enhancing security cooperation. Under the deal, Iraq committed to preventing armed groups from using its territory in the Kurdish region to launch attacks on Iran. As part of the agreement, Iranian Kurdish opposition parties have been relocated to camps away from the border.
Lastly, Hundreds of Iraqis and Iranians including top leaders head to Beirut for Nasrallah Funeral
Hundreds of Iraqis and Iranians, including senior leaders, are heading to Beirut where Lebanon’s Hezbollah will bury its former leader Hassan Nasrallah on Sunday nearly five months after he was killed in an Israeli airstrike, in a mass funeral aimed at showing political strength after the group emerged badly weakened from last year’s war.
Nasrallah was killed on September 27 in an Israeli airstrike as he met commanders in a bunker in Beirut’s southern suburbs, a stunning blow in the early phase of an Israeli offensive that has left the Iran-backed group a shadow of its former self.
The funeral in Beirut’s southern suburbs will also honor Hashem Safieddine, who led Hezbollah for one week after Nasrallah’s death before he was also killed by Israel, underlining how deeply Israeli intelligence had penetrated the terror group. He will be buried in the south on Monday.
“The funeral is a launchpad for the next phase. A great funeral that draws hundreds of thousands is a way of telling everyone that Hezbollah still exists, that it is still the main Shi’ite actor in Lebanon,” said Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
Where’s the change? Anyone? Share some thoughts, please?
One reply on “Rubio Reassures Europe, Russia Review, Oil Tanker disappears- Iran, Iraq, Israel, Nasrallah’s funeral..”
Late Kissinger once told: „To have the US as ennemy is dangerous. But to have the US as friend is lethal“.
So all about is said! In France we say about our main foe „Perfide Albion“ (meant are the Brits, angle-saxons, and US is angle-saxon by the mind). And in Germany we say: „Traue nur einem Angelsachsen so weit wir Du einen Amboss werfen kann“ (Trust only one Anglo-Saxon as far as you can throw an anvil).
Best regards