Cold calculations: Freezing Transnistria while Moldova Loses?

Keep in mind this is from the European Council on Foreign Relations and is a POV attributed to Andrew Wilson

Russian gas has stopped flowing to Europe, leaving Transnistria without an energy supply. Moldova, dependent on electricity from the breakaway region, is now facing soaring inflation months away from a crucial parliamentary election

Why has Russian gas stopped flowing to Europe? Well, when we read the above linked oped we may conclude that this stoppage just happened. It did happen, but, it happened because Ukraine stopped the transit. That's right Ukraine stopped the gas from flowing.

Russian gas era in Europe ends as Ukraine stops transit

Russia’s gas firm Gazprom said it had stopped at 0500 GMT after Ukraine refused to renew a transit agreement.

No agreement, no contract, no gas.. It’s on Ukraine. I’ll say it again the gas does not flow because Ukraine refused to renew a transit agreement.

Back to ECFR oped;

Problem

Transnistria has so far refused Moldova’s help. Russia could also supply Transnistria through the TurkStream pipeline. But by leaving Transnistria out in the cold, Moscow is hoping to weaken the pro-European government in Chisinau in the run-up to the parliamentary election due by the summer. Because Moldova proper is now not getting its normal electricity supply from Transnistria, it has been forced to buy half its electricity from Romania. Tariffs have already doubled. Moscow hopes this will trigger a second wave of inflation after Chisinau successfully reduced it to 5%. While pro-European president Maia Sandu was narrowly re-elected in November, her party is not as popular and faces a difficult election campaign – especially up against the Kremlin’s latest push.

To boost its efforts, Russia is also running a coordinated disinformation campaign to blame the government – as with recent coordinated statements by the Russian embassy in Moldova and Transnistrian ‘Ministry of Foreign Affairs’. These statements blame Ukraine and the West for the crisis, claiming that “some ‘hotheads’ are proposing to resolve the Transnistrian issue by force”.

Solution

The European Union should be aware that this is a part of Russia’s broader destabilisation of Moldova. To convince Transnistria to accept help and supply Moldova’s electricity, the EU could support Moldova in energy round-tripping: Moldova can buy gas for Transnistria, which helps it make electricity, which Moldova then buys. To finance the added cost, the EU could top up Moldova’s Energy Efficiency Fund and donate more to the EU- and UN-led Energy Vulnerability Reduction Fund. In previous crises, this has helped Chisinau compensate for higher tariffs.

Above all, Moldova needs more resources to combat Russian election interference, particularly in information warfare. Moldova has produced some excellent pro-EU videos; but the government and civil society needs to operate on a much bigger scale to compete with pro-Russian efforts on Telegram and through local influencers. The EU can achieve a lot by helping Moldova blame the right people for the current crisis.

The right people to blame are in Ukraine. That’s obvious enough

Context

Transnistria was unprepared for the cut-off. The authorities talked about large reserves and switching to coal; but its main electricity station uses specific coal from the Donbas in occupied Ukraine and reserves are likely to run out by the end of January. What began as one or two hours of power cuts are now reaching eight hours a day. Industry and water supply are also affected. School holidays have been extended to 20 January. For the moment, Transnistria seems to have been told to suffer. Russia will then likely provide humanitarian relief, just as electricity supplies were resumed to Abkhazia in December. The narrative of ‘saving’ Russian-speakers will swing into action, as will the narrative that this option was denied to Moldova proper by its government. Or Russia may continue the crisis to further pressure

Eight hours a day with no electricity? This article say's it's 5 hours daily. All players are going to spin to their own advantage. Either way it’s got to be difficult.

Atlantic Council- Moldova is the real loser from the end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine

I guess Ukraine’s leadership just didn’t care enough about Moldova?

A combination of circumstance, Russian malign influence, and its own failure to prepare has left Moldova the country hardest hit by the end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. Upon the January 1, 2025, cessation of transit, Moldova finds itself in an energy crisis and facing political instability. The Russian-backed separatist region of Transnistria is experiencing major power cuts and is without an alternate source of gas, having rejected bailout offers from the European Union (EU) and Chișinău. The rest of Moldova is suffering from its reliance on Transnistria for electricity, as well as Chișinău’s consolidation of its gas market under the majority Russian-owned company Moldovagaz. Neither the Moldovan government nor Transnistria were prepared for the long-anticipated post-Russian gas transit reality.

The five-year natural gas transit contract between Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz expired on January 1, ending a long history of Russian gas reaching Europe—and Moldova’s 2.5 million citizens—through Ukrainian pipelines. Kyiv elected not to extend the contract because, although it was earning approximately $800 million per year in transit revenue

Kyiv elected not to extend the contract because, although it was earning approximately $800 million per year in transit revenue

Apparently Kiev doesn’t need the 800 million dollars, yearly?? Since they’re being propped up by western governments?

But whereas Moldova proper, on the “Left Bank” of the Dniester, can import both electricity and gas from Europe—at a massively higher price than it was paying for Russian gas—the Right Bank has refused offers of in kind aid, including humanitarian aid and generators, as well as financial support from Europe with which to get through the winter. Buoyed by foreign assistance funds, Chișinău offered to help Transnistria buy gas and power imports from Europe, but the Right Bank has thus far declined any assistance. Instead, Transnistria seems to be waiting for Russia to turn the gas taps back on

Failure to prepare

This situation is years in the making. Moldova is one of the world’s most energy insecure countries and has long been reliant on Russian gas transited through Ukraine. Despite Moldova’s declaration of independence at the fall of the Soviet Union and much more recent disavowal of Russian gas, Russia’s majority state-owned gas giant Gazprom owns a 51 percent stake in Moldova’s state-owned gas company, Moldovagaz, and it has remained the country’s sole source of gas, whether directly or indirectly supplied. 

Meanwhile, Transnistria houses Moldova’s only power plant, the Ciciurgan gas-fueled station, which it sold in 2004 to a Russian state-owned enterprise. Chișinău does not recognize the sale. Although Moldova has been importing some electricity from the EU, it is nonetheless dependent on Transnistrian electricity for about 70 percent of its needs. Moreover, the only high-voltage transmission line through which Moldova can import European electricity passes through Transnistria, although a new transmission line to Romania is currently under construction. In practice, this means that the Left Bank depends on the Right Bank for power, and the Right Bank depends on the Left Bank for the gas to generate that electricity. Historically, each has found this arrangement convenient for less than strictly above-board reasons. It was also a very affordable arrangement so long as Russia was providing the gas, so both sides have therefore long been dependent on Russia.