Economist via archive.ph
After days of rocket and missile exchanges between Israel and Hizbullah, on October 1st the confrontation took an even more ominous turn, in two ways: Iran launched direct missile attacks on Israel, as Israel unleashed a ground invasion of Lebanon. The full-blown regional war that many have feared ever since the attacks of October 7th 2023 now looks closer than ever. One possibility is that Israel now responds with air strikes on Iran, perhaps targeting the facilities used for its nuclear programme, a highest-stakes mission that Israel has been planning for two decades.
Just to be clear. As the Economist article states Israel has been planning to attack Iran, for decades. And they’ve wanted US assistance to do so. So, it’s not hyperbole when that fact is stated here.
The missile attacks by Iran began on the evening of October 1st, following warnings by the American government and by the Israeli authorities. In Tel Aviv and Jerusalem people crowded into shelters
Still, the Iranian attack has a significance that goes far beyond potential Israeli casualties. Many within Israel’s political and security establishment believe there is a moment to transform the strategic picture in the region, given the weakness of Iran’s proxies. It is even possible that the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbullah’s leader, along with a senior Iranian general, in Beirut on September 27th, was designed to provoke Iran, luring it into a strategic trap. Either way the Iranian strike, they argue, gives Israel the justification to deal with Iran’s nuclear threat.
Israel and the US are, as expected, conferring on the response
Israel could target Iranian oil refineries in retaliation for Tuesday night’s attack, in which Tehran launched an estimated 180 ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv and other targets across the country in a dramatic escalation of the conflict between the two countries.
The US website Axios has reported that Israeli officials are considering a “significant retaliation” to the Iranian attack within days that could target oil production facilities inside Iran and other strategic sites.
Israeli officials are understood to be conferring with the US on how to calibrate their military response, which could propel the Middle East closer to the brink of a regional war.
Analysts have also suggested that Israel could target Iranian nuclear programme facilities, although the US may want to rule out that option because of the likelihood it would escalate the conflict further.
“There will be severe consequences for this attack and we will work with Israel to make that the case,” the US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said on Tuesday evening, adding that the US would have “ongoing consultations with the Israelis this afternoon and this evening”.
We understand the US and Israel are working hand in glove? Which is why, personally speaking, the claims of Israel defying the US fell onto deaf ears.
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, convened a security cabinet meeting on Tuesday night to discuss a military response to the attack. According to Axios, Israeli officials agreed in principle to launching a retaliation but needed to confer with US officials on defensive cooperation from US Central Command, as well as supplies of munitions and other operational support.
US lawmakers have backed a strike against Iranian oil production. Senator Lindsey Graham, of South Carolina, said he would “urge the Biden administration to coordinate an overwhelming response with Israel, starting with Iran’s ability to refine oil”. In a statement, he said Iran’s oil refineries should be “hit and hit hard”.
I see inflation taking a big jump if this occurs as the global economy takes a dump.
Contrary to 5 eyes media reports..
- It appears Iran hit some strategic targets in Israel yesterday.
- Hezbollah, is not as weak as has been claimed as they’ve repelled a ground incursion with the IDF’s special forces taking casualties and the remaining forces retreating.
Last 2 paragraphs from the Economist
As long as the Israeli operation remains close to the border, it seems to have America’s support. The operation “is in line with Israel’s right to defend its citizens and safely return civilians to their homes”, a spokesperson for the White House said. “We support Israel’s right to defend itself against Hezbollah and all Iranian-backed terror groups.” However, the spokesperson warned also of “mission creep”.
Some Israelis are wary of the enthusiasm of Mr Netanyahu and his far-right coalition to take the fight to Hizbullah. “Lebanon is a vortex that has swept us in before,” warns Tamir Hayman, a former IDF general and the head of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “Israel needs to make its objectives clear in Lebanon and set out what kind of ceasefire it will be willing to accept with Hizbullah. Things have so far been going well against Hizbullah, but the potential for disaster in Lebanon is great.” A high-risk invasion is now taking place alongside an even higher-risk direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, raising the stakes for Israel—and the entire Middle East