Thinking about reality vs the presentation. Just reading the piece below it’s pretty clear Avdiivka is lost to the Ukrainians, barring anything spectacular or unexpected.
The ruined coke and chemical plant, once an economic pillar in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, is likely to be the last Ukrainian stronghold in Avdiivka, which has been embattled since 2014. Ukrainian troops say it is just a matter of time before they will have to surrender the city, and on Thursday the military said forces had already pulled back from some positions as the Russians have begun advancing rapidly.
Capturing Avdiivka would mark Moscow’s most significant battlefield victory since the failure of a Ukrainian counteroffensive last year — and would be the clearest sign yet that Russian forces are regaining the initiative as Kyiv runs short of soldiers, weapons, ammunition, morale and money.
“It all comes down to logistics,” said Serhiy, 41, an infantry platoon commander with Ukraine’s 53rd Brigade fighting in the area. “Roads, interchanges, everything: A lot of logistics is tied up in the streets of Avdiivka.”
My understanding is that the streets are tied up. No resupplying. Retreat. Surrender. Or die.
Russia captured Bakhmut in May. Ukraine’s military and political leadership said continuing to defend Bakhmut cost Russia tens of thousands of casualties. But the battle also depleted Ukraine’s forces
Bakhmut depleted Ukraine’s forces- Oddly enough that had been presented time and time again as a stroke of genius battle.
Most recently in the article embedded in the relinked report
keeping the Russians physically and psychologically committed to a battle of attrition for such a meagre prize may have been a masterstroke.
Masterstroke? To lose all those Ukrainians for such a meagre prize
By Wednesday, the road Alpha used to get to the plant was under Russian fire control.
From what I’ve read today, Thursday, Avdiivka is lost
3 replies on ““Ukraine on Verge of Losing Avdiivka” Is it already lost?”
Hi Penny:
I think the Russian army’s march west will be done with caution to minimize the loss of Russian lives. There is no need to rush as Ukraine will not be winning any of these types of battles. It appears to me that not only has Ukraine lost the ability for a counter offensive but they also don’t have the ability for a successful defence. They don’t have enough properly trained personnel, they lack sufficient ammunition for the job and Russia has the superior weapons and control of the air. I have been against this proxy war because I am against the inhumane loss of Ukrainian lives. Also, I don’t think war is a way to resolve disputes. Diplomacy is better, I think.
Hi Gary,
This is a war that didn’t need to happen. And came very close to not happening had the UK not interceded. Boris Johnson was pivotal in shutting down diplomacy, had he not, the US would have done so anyway.. For the simple reason it was the US that wanted this proxy war. Diplomacy is better,always. Ukraine is lost.
I don’t know that Russia will move to far west? I’ve never considered that as a possibility, but, who knows. I do think they will go to Odessa.
And likely use the Dneiper river as a natural buffer.
Poland may take a chunk of territory back.
Possibly Hungary?