Here comes the admission Soledar has fallen and Bakhmut is not far behind. As well as admitting that Ukraine does not have the man power or resources to keep up this fight. Quoting from the Washington Post article while excluding as much spin and unnecessary gibberish as possible. Just the facts
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/01/15/bakhmut-wagner-battle-strategy/
Ukraine faces difficult choices about how much deeper its military should get drawn into a protracted fight over the besieged city of Bakhmut, as Kyiv prepares for a new counteroffensive elsewhere on the front that requires conserving weapons, ammunition and experienced fighters.
Russia has escalated its assault in the area in recent days, unleashing savage fighting that has underscored the high cost of the battle. Russian mercenaries and released convicts from the Wagner group pushed into the neighboring salt-mining town of Soledar and inched closer to Bakhmut
“Although they storm in small groups, people are constantly replenished, which creates an opportunity for them to storm positions very often — sometimes five, six, seven times during the day,” Kryshchenko said.
This say’s Ukraine is outmanned. And outgunned as you will read below
The Ukrainian military must now decide how many more forces and how much more ammunition and weaponry it can expend to continue defending Bakhmut
Bakhmut is set to fall sooner rather than later
The decisions come as Ukrainian officials…are preparing to launch a new counteroffensive in the coming months to try to wrest back more territory from the Russians
Contrary to western media spin, Russia has captured more territory
“They need to have units out of combat that they are equipping and training up for this offensive,” said Michael Kofman, a Russian military analyst at Virginia-based CNA. “This is why Bakhmut is a battle that I think was advantageous to Ukraine, but now there are questions about how much the cost of fighting for Bakhmut could impede Ukraine’s overall strategy for this winter or spring.”
–Was advantageous but not any longer
“Ukraine is under pressure to launch a new counteroffensive in coming months — and fend off any new campaigns by a Russian force buttressed with newly mobilized soldiers — at a time when attrition is testing its reserves of trained fighters and ammunition.”
–Ukraine is under pressure? Vague. From who? Internal? External? When attrition is “testing it’s reserves of fighters and ammunition”- the admission of lack of capability. Of loss. Contrary to every bit of spin we’ve been exposed to.
Mason Clark, a senior analyst and Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War, said he would be surprised if Ukrainian military officials allowed their force in Bakhmut to suffer a level of attrition significant enough to impact their ability to launch a counteroffensive elsewhere’
Statements below are from unnamed military source likely because no one wants their names attached to them
The Ukrainian military is cognizant of the need to preserve forces for a coming counteroffensive.
“They are still fighting, but they aren’t fighting with the same amount of resources that they originally were, because they likewise share concerns about sustainability here,”
The Ukrainians are not “giving up the ghost,” the official said. “They are marshaling their forces appropriately.”
Soledar and Bakhmut are not insignificant as is being claimed
The senior U.S. official cautioned against completely dismissing Bakhmut or neighboring Soledar as nonstrategic places that Kyiv can simply relinquish, noting that the salt and gypsum mines give the area economic significance. Theoretically, the Russians could use the deep salt mines and tunnels to protect equipment and ammunition from Ukrainian missile strikes
The official added, “Bakhmut is not going to change the war.”
It will.
5 replies on “Bloody Bakhmut siege poses risks for Ukraine”
In the video from The Duran about this battle. They are reporting that bakhmut is getting surrounded. The only open road is to the west of bakhmut which Russia is trying to close now.
Also they report that most of the experienced personal in soledar / bakhmut are deceased.
And that the Russian force with the exception of the the Airborne division was not touched in these battles.
The longer this goes on the higher the chance of a spillover. Because this is just revving up the war engine.
Hi Kaz
‘The longer this goes on the higher the chance of a spillover.”
Yes, that is a real risk! And scary, scary, scary!!
My hope is still Ukraine is balkanized- It’s the least worse scenario. Effectively freezing the fighting.
I’m sure Poland would relish the expansion of territory. Hungry would probably take some territory as well. That scenario is not without problems but it could freeze the war, possibly permanently?
Turkish leadership had better be on their toes! Changing the leadership there, could change the outcome in the Black Sea/Ukraine/Russia etc
I fear I cannot be that optimistic about the outcome.
The price that has been paid is too much.
Hi Kaz
I’m not sure what you mean by ‘the price that has been paid is too much’ So, I won’t assume anything unless you want to clarify?
I will however say none of this needed to happen. The west was duplicitous (Merkel acknowledged that) When there were options to work this out with realpolitik.. this did not happen.
The US/UK encouraged Ukraine to fight on behalf of NATO- this shouldn’t have happened. France has backed off of this stance recently
One thing that could happen is Zelensky could be assassinated by how own crowd.
The price that I am referring to is. Are the human lives and the relations bound to those lives. The grudges they hold will be directed somewhere. This counts both for Ukrainians and Russians.
Besides this reflecting on the events of the past month. I somehow made the parallels to WW2 where USA with its lend-lease program send material and resources to USSR so it can stay afloat against the Germans and later the USA invaded Nazi Germany in its weakened state.
Now the US army is doing a lot of logistics close to the Ukrainian border. (To assure their allies)