This is a long read, so it’s best to go to the link and read entirely
In its account of the deadly fire at CFB Wainwright, the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) describes an extraordinary chain of events on Oct. 17.
The base, it says, was monitoring a common grass fire that erupted in “uncommonly strong winds,” with flames soon devouring a kilometre in just 30 to 60 seconds.
The military called the event “entirely anomalous.”
A Global News analysis of satellite imagery and weather records, reviewed by seven Canadian wildfire experts, paints a different picture.
As soldiers continued their training on that day, satellites showed the fire had already spread. But the day before, Environment Canada forecast a cold front bringing powerful winds and later issued wind warnings for the area.
And experts say the flames were unlikely to travel at the speed the military suggests, although estimates made during a traumatic event may understandably be imprecise.
More importantly, however, experts say base leadership should have known the dangers posed by the incoming weather, even if they couldn’t predict the precise timing or consequences.
“This was not unexpected given the forecast cold front, the actively spreading fire and the wind warnings that were issued earlier in the day,” says Jen Beverly, an associate professor of wildland fire at the University of Alberta.
Satellite imagery and weather records show a two-kilometre stretch of fire at noon was likely spreading as winds picked up and a violent cold front approached.
An image from Copernicus, the EU’s earth monitoring program, showing the burn scar left behind after the CFB Wainwright fire on Oct. 19. Copernicus (at the link)
Weather records, satellite observations and decades of wildfire research already offer important clues about how the tragedy unfolded.
Global examined the evidence and had seven leading wildfire experts review its findings, reconstructing the hours before the disaster to better understand what happened — and whether the fire behaved as unexpectedly as the military has suggested.
The reconstruction traces how the fire may have spread throughout the day, what warnings were issued, and how a forecast wind shift changed the danger. It also raises questions about how quickly the flames advanced — and why soldiers remained in their path.
A sudden shift in ‘uncommonly strong winds’
Those vast, open grasslands face powerful winds, with few natural barriers to interrupt them as they sweep across the prairie.
While the precise combination of weather and fire conditions on Oct. 17 may have been exceptional, the area has seen destructive winds before.
Exactly nine years earlier, on Oct. 17, 2017, gusts exceeding 100 kilometres per hour derailed 13 railway cars at a trestle bridge west of town.
Local Wainwright residents told Global News the area is known for being windy, but the day’s gusts were extraordinary.
However, forecasts predicted those winds.
Since the previous morning, Environment Canada had forecast strong winds, with gusts expected to rise from 60 to 80 kilometres per hour by Oct. 17. The forecast also predicted a shift in wind direction, from southwest to west, that afternoon.
All this information was available well in advance of the incident at Wainwright.
Two hours before the soldiers were reportedly overrun, at 2:14 p.m., Environment Canada extended a yellow wind warning to Wainwright, indicating “hazardous” winds, and forecast gusts up to 100 kilometres per hour.
The base has its own weather station to monitor conditions, while CFB Wainwright’s
But it remains unclear who was monitoring the weather on Oct. 17.
In a tense exchange with a reporter days after the disaster, Maj.-Gen. Wade Rutland, speaking on behalf of the military, repeatedly declined to say whether Wainwright had a meteorologist or wildfire-behaviour expert, citing the ongoing investigation. Environment Canada provides meteorologists at some military bases, but confirmed none was stationed at Wainwright that day, adding that the base instead received remote forecasting support from CFB Gagetown in New Brunswick.
“You don’t want to be out in the field on a day like Saturday.”
A fire already burning
A grass fire ignited on the automatic grenade launcher range that Saturday, although the military has declined to say precisely when it began. At the time, the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System categorized the wildfire danger in Wainwright as “extreme.”
The military’s account of the blaze’s timing has changed. The morning after the tragedy, officials put the ignition time at around 4 p.m. Later that day, Rutland told a briefing that the fire started “several hours earlier,” adding that officials believed it was “contained.”
I had noticed the change in timing while reading previous news reports..
Asked how big the fire had grown, he declined to say: “I wouldn’t say it was small nor large.”
Four days later, military officials provided more detail, saying the fire was burning inside an area known as Permanent Danger Area 2, a restricted section of the base where live ammunition is fired, and unexploded munitions pose a hazard.
This “restricted the firefighters’ ability to conduct direct suppressive operations,” they said. (military claims)
However, the base’s standing orders explicitly exempt firefighting and emergency vehicles from certain restrictions on entering the area, including the grenade range impact zone, although the danger posed by unexploded munitions could still prevent firefighters from entering.
They also give Range Control authority to halt dangerous training and coordinate emergency responses. Units must also report changes in a fire’s intensity, direction and speed.
The military has declined to say whether those procedures were followed on Oct. 17, citing the ongoing investigation.
Military officials said Range Control and the base’s fire department monitored the blaze while soldiers continued training nearby.
But high above the Alberta prairie, satellites captured images of a fire far larger than a small patch of burning grass as early as noon.
U.S. Earth-observation satellite Landsat 8 showed active fire at 12:17 p.m., stretching roughly two kilometres in length across the grasslands, with scorched ground already visible behind the flames.
Using the co-ordinates of satellite-detected hotspots recorded in NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), Beverly estimates the blaze covered roughly 48 hectares — equivalent to about 50 football stadiums, including their surrounding grounds.
The military did not respond to questions about whether it agreed with that estimate.
So much more to read and view at the opening link
Two previous pieces below