UAE Breaks OPEC- Israel cannot squander the opportunity

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YNET News

The UAE just broke OPEC — Israel must not squander this opening

Opinion: Abu Dhabi’s break with the Saudi-led oil cartel exposes a shifting Gulf order, giving Jerusalem a chance to deepen energy, security and trade ties with the UAE beyond the symbolism of the Abraham Accords

On paper, Abu Dhabi framed the decision as a matter of production flexibility, saying it wants the freedom to set policy according to its own long-term energy interests, without being bound by the cartel’s collective discipline. But in the Middle East, especially in the Gulf, nothing is only technical.

For decades, OPEC’s power rested not only on the number of barrels pumped out of the ground but on discipline: producers accepted limits, kept their disputes behind closed doors and projected a united front even as rivalries simmered beneath the surface. The UAE has now punctured that façade.

That is the first major consequence. OPEC becomes weaker not necessarily because oil prices collapse tomorrow, but because the mythology of control has been damaged.

The second consequence is aimed squarely at Saudi Arabia. The relationship between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has long been presented as a Gulf partnership. It is also a rivalry.

Wonder how Saudi Arabia will deal with this?

This is where Israel should pay close attention.

The UAE has just signaled that it is prepared to break old frameworks when they no longer serve its interests, and Israel should take the hint. Since the Abraham Accords, the two countries have built a relationship rooted in trade, technology, security cooperation and shared concern over Iran, but it has not yet reached its full strategic potential. Abu Dhabi’s break with OPEC is a chance to move beyond symbolism, business delegations and polite conferences, and turn the partnership into something far more consequential.

First, Israel should position itself as a regional energy and infrastructure partner. The UAE wants flexibility, diversification and resilience. Israel can offer technology in cybersecurity, port security, desalination, energy storage, grid protection and drone defense. The Iran war has shown that energy infrastructure is now a front line. Israel and the UAE should build a joint energy security framework focused on protecting pipelines, ports, tankers, refineries and offshore assets.
We have already seen early signs of this budding cooperation, with Israel deploying an Iron Dome air defense battery to the UAE during the war, along with Israeli personnel to operate it and help defend its Gulf ally.

Second, Israel should move quickly on trade corridors. A UAE less tied to OPEC discipline and more focused on independent global reach will be looking for reliable routes to Europe and the Mediterranean

Third, Israel should use this moment to strengthen the moderate regional camp

Fourth, Israel should coordinate with Washington. The UAE’s move is also a win for U.S. pressure on OPEC. Israel can help frame the development as part of a broader realignment: energy producers, technology powers and security partners working outside old cartel logic to contain Iran and stabilize markets.

Iran enters cold war like phase..

The Iran conflict has entered a Cold War-like phase of financial sanctions, gunboat interdictions and talks about having talks.

Why it matters: The tense stalemate has no immediate end in sight. So higher energy prices appear certain for months — and a hot war could break out at any moment.

The big picture: Several U.S. officials told Axios they’re concerned about America getting drawn into a frozen conflict of no war and no deal.

In this scenario, the U.S. would have to keep its forces in the region for many more months. The Strait of Hormuz would stay closed, the U.S. blockade would remain, and both sides would continue waiting for the other to blink or fire first.
With the November midterm elections now six months away, "a frozen conflict is the worst thing for Trump politically and economically," one source close to the president said.

Zoom in: President Trump is vacillating between launching new military strikes or waiting to see whether his “maximum pressure” financial sanctions make Iran more inclined to negotiate an end to its nuclear weapons program, according to five advisers who have spoken with him.

"All [Iran's leaders] understand is bombs," Trump recently told one adviser, who relayed the comment to Axios.
"I would describe him as frustrated but realistic," the adviser said. "He doesn't want to use force. But he's not backing down."

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