If this author is correct on Gambling for Resurrection theory- Netanyahu is overseeing what will inevitably be the downfall himself and of Israel. Unless the US throws him a lifeline. This also applies to Zelensky, who is in the process of destroying Ukraine. Both are looking for resurrection. Neither will get it, in my opinion.
Let’s cut to the chase rather than include all the spin and perception management the author included.
How, though, do we explain the choices of Benjamin Netanyahu—the democratically elected (??) leader of Israel — who is continuing on a course of action opposed by his own people, his nation’s most important ally, and, of course, most of the rest of the world? His choices may seem intractable, or illogical. They are not. They are, from a certain point of view, perfectly rational. They are, in fact, an excellent example of a phenomenon that political scientists have long studied, and that is a problem in areas far removed from the Middle East. It’s called “gambling for resurrection.”
When international relations theorists first theorized about it, gambling for resurrection was usually about dictators. ( Interesting attempt at excluding Israel’s leadership- Netanyahu is dictatorial in actions and deeds- the author acknowledges such above) Imagine you’re the leader of an autocracy. (Israel is not a democracy) You’re fighting a war, and you’re losing—by a lot. The best outcome for your country is for you to negotiate a settlement where you’ll lose, but you won’t get destroyed.
For you, though, admitting defeat might actually be the worst-case scenario. Dictators who lose wars usually don’t hold onto power for very long. So if you do admit defeat, at best, you’ll be overthrown and exiled. At worst, you’ll be overthrown and executed. What do you do? You gamble for resurrection. With a 10% chance of winning the war and a 90% chance of catastrophe, you’re naturally going to gamble on the 10% so you don’t get overthrown (or worse).
The best historical example may be Napoleon’s final campaigns. Facing the combined armies of Austria, Prussia, Russia, and the United Kingdom, all of which had made his overthrow a central war aim, he fought on long after defeat was virtually certain. Napoleon was perhaps the greatest military genius who ever lived. These final battles were among his greatest masterstrokes. But he still lost, and tens of thousands of French soldiers died for no reason other than to extend his hold on power by a few weeks.
Then, in 1815, he returned from his exile on the island of Elba and took over France once again, before his final defeat at Waterloo. Facing such tremendous odds, even Napoleon could not win. But he considered overthrow and exile to be such an awful fate that he had to try.
Usually, in a democracy, gambling for resurrection isn’t a problem. Al Gore didn’t need to gamble for the 10%. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does. (Because Israel is not a democracy)
Netanyahu’s essential problem is that when he leaves office, he is likely going to jail. He’s under indictment for corruption charges, and nobody really thinks—as far as I can tell—that he’s innocent. The only reason he isn’t in prison is because he is currently Prime Minister and the country is currently at war.
For Netanyahu, the writing is on the wall, and that’s the reason pressure on him from all quarters doesn’t seem to be having much effect at all: All of his incentives push him to gamble for resurrection. He can only steer clear of his fate if he pulls a rabbit out of his hat and turns his fortunes around before he is forced to call the next Israeli elections, which aren’t mandated to occur until October 2026.
If Biden wants to change Netanyahu’s course, the only avenue is to threaten his hold on power. Netanyahu’s majority in the Knesset is only 5 seats, and Netanyahu himself is extremely unpopular in Israel. Pressure from an American President who has established himself in the last few months as perhaps the best ally Israel has ever had might well threaten that narrow margin. That would change his incentives—and likely his behavior—in a way that nothing else could.
If Biden intends to shape Israeli policy in the war in Gaza, it is likely his only path.
Questions-
Is the US through it’s withholding of weapons attempting to force Netanyahu’s hand?
Is the US, by withholding the report mentioned in the post below, trying to force Netanyahu’s hand? As in, we’ve got the dirt and we’ll publicize it unless…
Are both measures being used to influence the Israeli governments plans in Gaza? A sort of carrot and stick measure?
4 replies on “Netanyahu Gambling For Resurrection??”
We are in no position to determine whether there has actually been a real “withholding of weapons” or how crucial any of those weapons might be. It may be all talk to make the US appear to have some small shred of humanitarian concern in their foreign policy and allow Netanyahu to blather on bravely about “going it alone…….”
The delay of the war crimes report is standard operating procedure when faced with bad news.
Both measures are being used to appear to influence the Israeli governments plans in Gaza. but there is no ‘good’ way to pulverize Raffa, the US has no mitigating plan that could ease the pain. Only cancellation of the plan could be significant.
The only good news might be that I believe that the rabid Israeli politicians appear to be having problems finding enough of the IDF willing to actually go into Raffa and engage Hamas in house to house (or rather ruin to ruin) fighting. The IDF took serious losses in Gaza City and Khan Younis before their withdrawal and do not wish to repeat that scenario in Raffa. Only the Air Force and artillery men remain brave.
“We are in no position to determine whether there has actually been a real “withholding of weapons” or how crucial any of those weapons might be.”
You’re correct on that Mark! All we can do is follow what is being reported and wonder if the reporting is accurate and/or what reason these things are being reported. It sucks.
“It may be all talk to make the US appear to have some small shred of humanitarian concern in their foreign policy and allow Netanyahu to blather on bravely about “going it alone…….”
Yup, there’s one reason. It could be being done so if the war crimes are made, or if Netanyahu is tossed the US is giving itself some kind of out (in a pr fashion)
“The delay of the war crimes report is standard operating procedure when faced with bad news.”
I see some early spin emerging on the report out of BBC and also take note that what is hitting the news cycle is coming out on a Friday night (easier to ignore) and is out of context.
“The only good news might be that I believe that the rabid Israeli politicians appear to be having problems finding enough of the IDF willing to actually go into Raffa and engage Hamas in house to house (or rather ruin to ruin) fighting.”
That’s going to be tough fighting for sure.
H Penny. Thanks for raising the questions. I’m finding some hope in numerous reports from Aljazeera:
“Why are thousands protesting against Netanyahu’s government in Israel?”
Israeli citizens have taken to the streets, calling for a Gaza ceasefire and the release of Israeli captives.
“No more war, no more bloodshed”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/2/israels-protests-amid-mounting-pressure-on-benjamin-netanyahu-all-to-know
It’s taken some time for Israelis to realize what an evil leader they elected, but let’s hope they keep up the momentum.
I was reading about the protests in Israel against Netanyahu
they are nearly round the clock, daily and when there is no one around there’s all manner of signs hanging everywhere (on posts etc.,)
Similar to the Al Jazeera article