Gallier the Eldersays:

December 28, 2025 at 6:04 am•Edit

I love to look at the whole picture rather than get lost in details.

Under this link you will find a text that shows a good overall picture. Have fun looking at it. (linked above)

I wish you all a smooth transition into the new year and all the best for you and your families.

Gallier the Elder

It’s the type of piece that would be characterized here as a dot connector. Much like the post from the other day– I like the overall picture as well, but, there are times the devil is in the details and those details require a bit more examination– Over my many years of reading, writing and reporting a wide range of topics have been examined. Gallier’s link gave me an opportunity to review previous work & refresh everyone’s memory on these topics that contribute like trees to the formation of the forest. As we enter into 2026, a year that is looking to be potentially very dangerous for the planet- It seems a good time to review.

I’m including excerpts from the linked piece while adding in additional information and perspectives. If you take the time to read the entire piece, which is worth reading, you’ll realize we’ve talked about much of this here. Some of my views differ from Gregorz, but, it’s all good

This is not the collapse of the Roman Empire; this is more like the collapse of the Roman Republic.

This is the collapse of the phase of the entity in which ordinary citizens have a say in their own government. This is the period before the rise of an empire and a protracted period of expansionist, destructive, warlike insanity. You thought it was bad before? Just wait until they don’t have to have a pretext anymore. Wait until they don’t have to have any checks on their ambition. Wait until they can do whatever they want right out in the open without having to explain it to the public—because that is what we are looking at next.

I see the collapse of the empire and that is not naive. Not in my opinion. But it won’t be fast or easy due to the powerful and deeply interconnected global military assets of the US. Alongside the US dollar being the currency of global trade. It is the beginning of an era of belligerence. But not expansionism. It's a belligerence brought about by the understanding that ones global relevance is shrinking. And it is the last dangerous effort to retain the status of global empire.

In fact here’s a report from the other day pointing out just how much the Empire’s dollar superiority has slipped globally- Wired.com– The dollar is facing an end to it’s dominance, via archive.ph

”2026 will be the year when US dollar dilution—the quiet erosion of its global dominance as countries trade and pay in alternatives—starts to build momentum. The more Washington uses the dollar as a weapon, the more the world builds ways to circumvent it.

America’s share of global trade has fallen from one-third in 2000 to just one-quarter today. As emerging economies trade more with each other, the dollar is less central to the flow of goods. Indian and Russian trade now settles in rupees, dirhams, and yuan. More than half of China’s trade now moves through CIPS, China’s own cross-border payment system, instead of SWIFT—the global messaging network long dominated by Western banks. Other trading partnerships like Brazil-Argentina, UAE-India, and Indonesia-Malaysia are also piloting local currency settlements.
At the same time, central banks around the world are starting to accumulate currencies other than the dollar as reserves. The dollar made up 72 percent of global reserves in 1999. Today, it’s down to 58 percent—and falling.”

This erosion of the US dollar supremacy, which has been ongoing for decades- is NOT lost on the US leadership.

If you are imagining a scenario where the United States simply shrinks from its position as the dominant global superpower without first lashing out at everyone, you are out of your minds. That is what they are stress-testing right now.

Yes, that is what the US is doing. Pushing buttons. Stress testing. Lashing out. The tariffs are a form of economic warfare- Never mind the rabid and blatant war mongering!

Notice how the Democrats are just going along with it and there is no public pushback.

So, once they have finally eliminated the last republican institutions, once they have finally eliminated the last traces of public involvement in the government, this is what we will be left with. That is the better analogy. It is not the fall of the Roman Empire; rather, all the window dressing is gone, and we are moving into straight imperialism.

To me this statement applies more to the internal American populace- those outside of the US understand what the US is, having been subjected to it’s vagaries for decades. It is Pax Americana. And has been for a very long time. But the Americans themselves may finally come to understand this reality.

Unfortunately, I completely agree with this statement. Things are only going to get worse. A global war and, or a global techno-feudal prison is coming. Because people live in a world of naivety, not understanding that the US is a superpower and a world hegemon acting like a global terrorist, they don’t understand what is coming.

Maybe more people do live in a world of naivety? But, I’m not one of them.

I explain, as does Brian Berletic, that all this talk about a divide between America and Europe is nonsense.

It is a colony. By design. The EU and the US are on the same page no matter the presentation of disagreement

In 2014, I did a post at my former site. It has since been relinked here.

2014; From my former site- more then a decade ago. Contrary to the recent claims of Donald Trump – the EU was created to be both subordinate to the US and act as thorn in Russia’s side. Hence the “whole and free” agenda. That’s obvious enough isn’t it? The EU was not created to do damage to the US as Trump claims.

You can access the entire report via the web archive

https://web.archive.org/web/20170411091333/http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2014/05/toward-europe-whole-free-via-nato.html

Including Recall?-   Trigger a cold war to make it easier (for the US) to annex Europe

And so it happened.

Therefore, I’m 100 percent in agreement with the statement the EU is a US colony

How is America allegedly against the war in Ukraine while it still provides intelligence, and while Congress just approved the Pentagon budget, which allocates money for weapons for Ukraine? If Europe is a weak vassal and Kallas is too afraid to even name the US, and when Trump imposed tariffs on Europe they gave America everything it wanted, then how can anyone tell me with a straight face that there is a meaningful divide between America and Europe? America holds all the cards and could simply impose tariffs again, saying they will only be lifted if Europe agrees to peace with Russia. The US could also cut intelligence sharing with the Ukrainian army, which would lead to its collapse — yet it does neither. And we are still supposed to believe America wants peace with Russia while continuing to fund and support Ukraine militarily?

I don’t believe America wants peace or it would have had peace.

Some people will still reject what I say and claim it is speculation, insisting Merkel was not lying in 2022. To them I point out one thing: Poland built one of the largest LNG ports in Europe and constructed the Baltic pipeline from Norway through Denmark — all in preparation for a Ukraine war. I live in Poland, and even I didn’t know that Poland now produces 90% of the West’s TNT supply used by Western armies. Poland was clearly informed by the US that war was coming, and positioned itself to profit from it.

I’ve written on this subject, previously. Numerous times. Here and at my censored site- The push to have Poland replace Germany as the most important state on the NATO frontline

Originally published in 2014 moved here in 2022

2023- Poland, home of Russia’s government in waiting

2022 Poland Europes Newest Military Power

Use the search bar to find many more reports on Poland’s growing dominance- It’s not been happenstance, it’s been planned for quite some time now

I’m not on the same page as the author and his contentions regarding Northstream and Poland. They wanted Northstream blown, because Polish leadership wanted to be the dominant power player in Europe. But I can see Merkel not wanting the pipeline destroyed or the war with Ukraine, understanding Germany would be destroyed in the process.

I argue that Germany — especially Merkel’s faction — did everything they could to prevent the war until the very end. America knew this, and that Germany did not want war because it would destroy German industry, so the US felt compelled to destroy Nord Stream. Blowing it up was risky: if the public realized America had sabotaged German infrastructure, it could cause massive political backlash. Yet the US did it anyway, because if Nord Stream remained intact, Germany might still return to Russian gas, even during the conflict.

NATO is based on a few simple concepts. The US leads. Keeping Germany down and Russia out. And never to allow for German/Russian cooperation That would be one powerful partnership.. Not just militarily, but economically that would be a strong challenger to American hegemony.

Gregorz broaches the eastern mediterranean pipeline projects ; IMEC corridor, energy

Big piece of the global puzzle. Most recently talked about the other day in the dot connecting post where the economic deal between Turkey and Libya is mentioned

Gregorz moves onto Azerbaijan and Armenia

Now we come to Azerbaijan and the “Azerbaijan Trump Corridor.”

“The “Azerbaijan Trump Corridor,” officially the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), is a U.S.-brokered transport corridor agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It links mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia, featuring roads, railways, pipelines, and fiber optics. The corridor promises regional peace and trade by providing new East-West transit routes while reducing Russian and Iranian influence, with the U.S. holding development rights for 99 years.”

Already covered here multiple times and at my old site

The author writes about the dispute between Pakistan and Iran

Recently, there was a conflict between Pakistan and India, which I discussed in my posts. This war was provoked by the United States, which conducted a terrorist attack in India using our McJihadists, giving India an excuse to attack Pakistan. Many people believe Pakistan won the conflict, but I disagree.

As do I. Pakistan did not win.

Pakistan was heavily beaten by India and, in desperation, asked Trump to intervene and make India stop its attack. For the first time in history, immediately after this conflict, the military leader of Pakistan — the actual power in the country — visited the White House.

Yup.

This feels too much like a contrived ”feather in the cap” situation for the Trump administration.

Then there was the dust up between Afghanistan and Pakistan- Instigated by the Pakistan at the behest of the US

That’s my view on what has happened between both nations- Pakistan egged on by the Trump administration has attacked Afghanistan. To be clear Pakistan and the US have been fast military friends for a very long time.

Thanks to Grzegorz Ochman for an interesting read, which gave me an opportunity to fondly reminisce on the many years of global machinations that have been covered by yours truly starting way back in 2008.

If your interest has been piqued- use the search bar to enlighten yourself

2026 will soon be here.

The Guardian

The suspected shooter of two national guard members in Washington DC on Wednesday worked with CIA-backed military units during the US war in Afghanistan, the agency has confirmed.

The alleged gunman, identified as Rahmanullah Lakanwal, 29, came to the US in September 2021 under an Operation Allies Welcome program that gave some Afghans who had worked for the US government entry visas to the US. He was granted asylum in April this year, under the Trump administration, Reuters reported.

Lakanwal’s ties to the Central Intelligence Agency, which worked alongside US special forces in Afghanistan, were confirmed by the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, to media outlets.

The New York Times reported that the shooting suspect had worked for several US government agencies in Afghanistan, including CIA-backed units in the southern province of Kandahar, a stronghold of the Taliban.

The Washington Post, citing anonymous sources, said those CIA-backed units included counterterrorism squads known as the “Zero Units”, which were involved in combat missions to seize or kill suspected terrorists.

“The Biden administration justified bringing the alleged shooter to the United States in September 2021 due to his prior work with the US government, including CIA,” Ratcliffe told Fox News digital, adding that Lakanwal’s involvement with the agency was “as a member of a partner force in Kandahar, which ended shortly following the chaotic evacuation”.

The two wounded guard members have been named as Sarah Beckstrom, 20, and Andrew Wolfe, 24. Both are members of the West Virginia national guard and are listed in critical condition.

They had both been sworn into service less than 24 hours before they were ambushed at a bus stop by the suspect.

Other national guard members at the scene had engaged and neutralized the suspect, she said.

The suspect is under arrest and being treated at a hospital.

The FBI director, Kash Patel, told the news conference the agency is investigating the shooting as an act of terrorism. Law enforcement agencies had executed search warrants at the suspect’s home in Washington and in San Diego, California.

“This is a coast-to-coast investigation,” Patel said.

Patel also confirmed the suspect’s relationship with US forces in Afghanistan. The investigation, he said, would include any known associates of the suspect overseas and in the US.

Patel said the suspect was in the US “for one reason and one reason alone – because of the disastrous withdrawal (from Afghanistan) by the Biden administration and the failure to vet this individual and countless others”.

The suspect was in the US because he was an ally of the US and tied to the CIA- that’s why he was in the US

12 years ago- Hamid Karzai wanted to curb CIA operations in Afghanistan

President Hamid Karzai is determined to curb CIA operations in Afghanistan after the death of a US agent and 10 Afghan children in a battle he believes was fought by an illegal militia working for the US spy agency.

The campaign sets the Afghan leader up for another heated showdown with the US government, and will reignite questions about the CIA’s extensive but highly secretive operations in the country.

Karzai’s spokesman Aimal Faizi said the CIA controlled large commando-like units, some of whom operated under the nominal stamp of the Afghan government’s intelligence agency, the National Directorate of Security (NDS), but were not actually under its control.

“Some of them are said to be working with the NDS, but they are not armed by the NDS, not paid by the NDS, and not sent to operations by the NDS. Sometimes they only inform the NDS minutes before the operation,” Faizi said. “They are conducting operations without informing local authorities and when something goes wrong it is called a joint operation.”

Woodward said the unofficial commando units were known as counter-terrorism pursuit teams, and described them as “a paid, trained and functioning tool of the CIA”, authorised by President George W Bush.

They were sent on operations to kill or capture insurgent leaders, but also went into lawless areas to try to pacify them and win support for the Afghan government and its foreign backers. Woodward said the units even conducted cross-border raids into Pakistan.

In the wake of the Kunar battle, Karzai has also ordered his security officials to step up implementation of a presidential decree issued in late February abolishing “parallel structures”. Faizi said this order was aimed primarily at dismantling CIA-controlled teams.

“The use of these parallel structures run by the CIA and US special forces is an issue of concern for the Afghan people and the Afghan government,” he said.

The use of parallel structures run by the CIA and US special forces is very likely an issue of concern, or should be an issue of concern, to the American people.

Strategy of Tension vibe. Gladio. The Years of Lead

Trump met Shehbaz Sharif and General Asim Munir in the Whitehouse a couple of weeks back. In a CLOSED to the PRESS meeting

What else may be going on?

Trump admin has been pushing to retake Afghan base from the Taliban for months, sources say

President Donald Trump has been quietly (not so quietly) pushing his national security officials for months to find a way to get Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan back from the Taliban, three people familiar with the matter told CNN.

Pakistan would be the most convenient proxy to use in to achieve this goal

Trump hinted at those discussions publicly for the first time on Thursday, telling reporters that his administration is working to regain control of the base, which lies an hour north of Kabul. The Taliban took it over following the collapse of the Afghan government and the US military withdrawal in 2021.

“We gave it to (the Taliban) for nothing,” Trump said during a joint press conference with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday. “We’re trying to get it back, by the way.”

He did NOT say we’re going to get it back- He said “We’re trying (presently) to get it back, by the way“

Afghan Taliban says Pakistani troops killed in ‘retaliatory’ border attacks

The Taliban government has confirmed that it attacked Pakistani troops in multiple mountainous locations on the northern border.

A Taliban spokesman said 58 Pakistan military personnel had been killed in what it called “an act of retaliation”. It claimed Pakistan had violated Afghan airspace and bombed a market inside its border on Thursday.

Afghan’s foreign minister said in a press conference in New Delhi that “we have no problems” with Pakistan’s people and its leadership but added “there are some groups in Pakistan that are trying to spoil the situation. Afghanistan has a right to keep its territory and its borders safe, and so it has retaliated to the violation.”

Not a market- A square- Like some sort of town square, read below

Link

A blast struck before 10 p.m. local time on Thursday in the Abdul Haq Square area of Kabul, close to several ministries and the national intelligence agency. Security forces sealed off the site.

The government’s chief spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, said at the time that there were no reports of injuries or damage. He described the explosion as an accident and said an investigation was underway.

Unsurprisingly, India, Russia and China do not agree with Trump‘s Plans

India, Russia, China Back Afghanistan Against Trump’s Play for Bagram Air Base: Why US Wants it Back & What’s the Opposition About?

Few weeks after US President Donald Trump expressed his intention to take over Afghanistan’s Bagram air base, India has joined the Taliban, Pakistan, China and Russia to oppose Trump’s move. This comes just few days before the scheduled visit of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi later this week.

Releasing a joint statement, the participants of Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan said on Tuesday, “They (the participants) called unacceptable the attempts by countries to deploy their military infrastructure in Afghanistan and neighboring states, since this does not serve the interests of regional peace and stability.”

The seventh session of the Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan was held in Moscow and saw the presence of special representatives and senior officials from Afghanistan, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. A delegation from Belarus also attended the meeting as guests.

“For the first time, the Afghan delegation headed by Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi participated in the meeting as a member,” the statement read.

Pakistan attacked Afghanistan. Afghanistan retaliated. As of today, that’s my best assessment- This was an event one could have predicted.

It was 2014 and ISIS Khorosan was being targeted in Syria by the US. Coincidentally. But, not really, in the exact area where US backed PKK was working to destabilize both Turkey and Syria.

KurdIShIS, was my label for this crew of thugs backed by the US, Israel and UK, largely, but not entirely. Canada, France and if I’m not mistaken Germany were also involved

Ten years ago not only was it very clear to this follower of geopolitics, it was acknowledged, that all information about ISIS Khorosan or ISIS K, was being provided (created) by the US.

Going down the memory hole to my censored site-

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2014/11/us-strikes-khorasan-again-in-syria.html

Where is this Khorasan story line going to take us? To Iran? Lebanon? Or into Turkey?
Options. So many options…..
BBC

The US military says it has carried out air strikes against the al-Qaeda-linked Khorasan group in north-western Syria.

The US hit five targets related to the group, including several vehicles and buildings, near the border with Turkey.The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the violence, said several militants and two children had died in the attack.

It is the second time US strikes have targeted Khorasan, whom it accuses of planning attacks on the US and Europe.
In a statement, the US Central Command (Centcom) said Thursday’s strikes near the town of Sarmada had hit vehicles and buildings used for training and to produce bombs.

Little is known about Khorasan other than information released by US officials.

Centcom said the group was using Syria as a base to attack the West, rather than seeking to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad or helping the Syrian people.

Little is known about Khorasan other then whatever the US claims.

Ynet is reporting “the group was plotting to attack Europe or the United States.

 As claimed by the US.

Killing a “key bombmaker” 

The U.S. fired at a vehicle it believed carried David Drugeon, a skilled bomb-maker in his 20s who also has ties to core al Qaeda members in Pakistan, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

 I don’t know….???? Who is David Drugeon?

Took the time to do a bit of digging on David Drugeon. Not much prior to his alleged killing today?
I did manage to find this from October 30/14

Translated from Italian via google translate

Isis: US intelligence leader Khorasan not killed in raid

October 30 19:29

(ANSAmed) – WASHINGTON, Oct. 30 – The US intelligence believes that two key leaders of jihadist group Khorasan are still alive, although the target of the first US raids on Syria, and that they are plotting attacks in Europe. This was reported by CNN.

The two are the group’s leader, Muhsin al-Fadhli, given up for dead in September, and David Drugeon, a jihadist French and key member of the group, expert in bomb-making; according to the US are still alive even though they may be injured in the raid. “At 99.5% are alive,” he told CNN an intelligence analyst.

According to the United States, and Drugeon ‘involved in facilitating the movement of fighters to and from Europe and in planning attacks in Europe. His identity had not previously been disclosed.

As al-Fadhli and the rest of the group Khorasan, US officials argue that Drugeon has links to al Qaeda in Pakistan and it supposedly arrived in Syria from Pakistan in the past two years. Intelligence believes that it is an expert in making bombs and may have been involved in the creation of bombs easily nascondibili which led to increased security at airports last summer.

According to the US, and ‘it is still possible in Syria.

Drugeon reads like a western (NATO) intelligence asset. French? How did he make his way from France to Pakistan then onto Syria? The TTP has sent fighters to Syria. But they (the TTP) appear to be a western intelligence asset- NATO jihadi group- so if this Drugeon came via Pakistan he came with the TTP

TTP = Tehrik Taliban of Pakistan- There is information on them at the censored blog

FDD

While it is not news that Zawahiri is alive, well, and communicating comfortably, some terrorism analysts previously claimed Zawahiri was dead as recently as Nov. 2020. While not explicitly stated, Zawahiri is likely operating inside Afghanistan.

#exclusive #breaking

Ayman Zawahiri, al-Qaeda leader & Osama bin Laden successor, died a month ago of natural causes in his domicile. The news is making the rounds in close circles.

– I realize the issue wt such claims but corroborated it wt sources close to AQ (Hurras al-Din)— Hassan I. Hassan (@hxhassan) November 13, 2020

Nearly two years ago he was reported to have died. In his home. Of natural causes. A month after he had died. There were reports he was unwell.

SO…….

I can’t take this claimed assassination as truth. It absolutely feels like a rerun of the OBL hit. Nothing catapults propaganda better then repetition. The assassination of Osama Bin Laden, on Obama’s watch, didn’t ring as true either.

The US needed some kind of distraction/win scenario. So they created one. This feels like a psyop.

Potentially useful as well for justifying more US activity in Afghanistan.

How you interpret it is entirely up to you.

Biden’s “Over the Horizon Plan”- Would you believe that was reported on at my prior residence July 2/21. Just over two months ago..

Went to get this report through the Wayback Machine. Over the Horizon missions are flown for the sole purpose of supporting “forces” that remain in Afghanistan. Clearly the withdrawal didn’t occur, but a relocation definitely took place! Perhaps the US will support the Northern Alliance led by Masoud Jr (son of Masoud Sr), yet again.

From the Daily Signal- (above wayback machine link)

With the 20^th anniversary of 9/11 upon us—and having been a Pentagon official that day—excuse me for being a little on edge about Team Biden’s plans for beating down any terrorist threat that might be brewing in the new, hard-line Afghanistan.

With the anniversary of 9/11 coming fast we might be wise to anticipate some serious underhandedness on the part of the US. The fight will continue in Afghanistan. The US shifted policies, but, they did not and will not give up their hold on this nation state.

With the fall of the Afghan government, in some ways, it feels like we’ve come full circle to those fateful days before 9/11, when the Taliban largely ruled Afghanistan and al-Qaeda planned, trained, and operated for attacks abroad.

There’s a very good chance the U.S. would be square in the sights of Afghanistan-based terrorists—again.

Though the Taliban claims its policies will be different from the days before 9/11, it has long been affiliated with several international and domestic terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda and the Haqqani network.

Those terrorist ties will almost certainly continue under this latest Taliban regime. Those groups have fought for years with the Taliban against the Afghan government and its partners, including the United States.

I’ve noticed the name Haqqani being bandied around quite a bit.. That’s another ‘blast from the past’- Same as Masoud. Propaganda repeats for a reason.

Like before our invasion in the fall of 2001, al-Qaeda will want protected places in Afghanistan from which it can freely recruit, radicalize, and rejuvenate for terrorist plots in South and Central Asia—and further abroad.

While an enemy of the Taliban, the South/Central Asian branch of the infamous ISIS, Islamic State Khorasan (aka ISIS-K), also will be looking for ungoverned spaces to set up camp for the same purposes as its competition, al-Qaeda.

The Taliban’s Afghanistan might become just the place for that.

Panjshir, Afghanistan- Readying the Separatist Region?

Pentagon Confirms Explosion Outside of Kabul Airport

Khorasan Appears/Reappears in Afghanistan!

Aljazeera

For the last three weeks, Ahmad Massoud, the son of the late anti-Taliban commander Ahmad Shah Massoud, has been leading the armed resistance against Taliban rule in Panjshir, the only province to evade the Taliban’s rapid takeover of Afghanistan last month.

The 32-year-old, who was trained at the British military academy Sandhurst, is following in his father’s footsteps – the elder Massoud also led an armed resistance against Taliban rule in the 1990s.

Trained at Sandhurst British military academy?

The Royal Military Academy Sandhurst (RMAS) is where all officers in the British Army are trained to take on the responsibility of leading their soldiers. During training, all officer cadets learn to live by the academy’s motto:

‘Serve to Lead’

Other Nations choose to send their personnel to RMAS for Officer training because it is recognised as a world-leading military training academy.

But whereas the father’s resistance was able to relay constant updates in several languages, Ahmad’s National Resistance Front (NRF) has faced great difficulty in sending out information from the northeastern province since the Taliban cut off phone and Internet access last week.

This virtual media blackout has led to an imbalance in information from the front lines of the battle against the Taliban in Panjshir. In recent days, Panjsheris in Kabul and abroad have faced great difficulty in getting updates from their families back home.

One Panjshiri civilian in his twenties, who did not want to reveal his identity for safety reasons, told Al Jazeera by telephone that the situation in the province was “dire” and “troubling” for the 130,000 people trapped there.

He said that Panjshir is currently facing a massive shortage of basic necessities. For the last week, the Taliban have blocked the road from Kabul to Panjshir, which makes it nearly impossible for goods to get into the valley.

“Whatever food people had in their houses, that’s what they’ve been eating for weeks, now, the stores and bazaars are all empty,” he said.

The young man, who like thousands of others fled from districts in the heart of the province to mountainous areas as Taliban forces advanced in recent days, said medical facilities in Panjshir have also experienced shortages.

“I have sick people in my family and I have no way of helping them,” he said.

Meanwhile, unverified voice messages and posts detailing claims of “massacres” and warning of a possible “genocide” have circulated on social media in recent days. Al Jazeera was not able to independently verify any of the claims, which have caused alarm among Panjshiris outside the province.

Breakaway province with fighter tied to US/UK intelligence… so familiar

The US did nothing to impede this re establishment from taking place likely because they have their own reasons for staying out of the fray.

Interesting oped on 3 other players of influence below:

War on The Rocks- Excerpts

An old proverb says that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend,” but the success of Taliban forces in wresting control over most of Afghanistan from the government of President Ashraf Ghani may complicate matters for three countries whose relationship with the United States is always fraught, and often antagonistic. Leaders in Beijing, Ankara, and Moscow likely shed no tears while watching Ghani’s American- and NATO-backed regime crumble, taking with it any lingering hope that the two-decade mission in Afghanistan could create in the troubled country a durable regime sympathetic to America and the West. But the rise of the Taliban creates its own set of challenges for leaders in China, Turkey, and Russia, each of which see themselves as important regional powerbrokers.

China and the Taliban: A Match Made Under Heaven?

Having cultivated a good relationship with the Taliban for the past decade, and with a recent high-profile official visit by a Taliban delegation led by the group’s number two leader Abdul Ghani Baradar on July 28, Beijing sees itself as having finally bet on the right horse in Afghanistan. Since the Taliban’s takeover of the country, China has demonstrated an unprecedented level of positive reception, political endorsement, and diplomatic support of the Taliban. However, there are ferocious debates ongoing in China as to what the best strategy is moving forward vis-à-vis its poor, unstable, and destabilizing neighbor.

Having proclaimed the Afghan Taliban a “critical military and political force in Afghanistan,” China’s abandonment of the former Ghani government, and of its balancing diplomacy, was swift despite high-level engagement with both parties as recently as July. Beijing has not moved to recognize the Taliban, or the Taliban-led regime, yet. However, such recognition is implied in the many messages Beijing has sent. On Aug. 18, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson subtly commented that recognition of a government must wait until after the government is established, implying that, after the Taliban establishes its government, China’s recognition will ensue. One day later, the foreign ministry complimented the Taliban’s “good, positive and pragmatic behaviors” and called for the international community to abandon its stereotyped perceptions of the organization.

Beijing appears to have concluded two preliminary assessments about the future.

The first is about the Taliban’s victory and its sustainability. There may be pockets of territory and opposition forces that remain outside the Taliban’s control, but Beijing doesn’t see them as posing critical challenges….. (I’m not so sure that is Beijing’s view)

The second concerns the Taliban’s improved behavior. China sees the Taliban as becoming more rational and pragmatic, based on the group’s recent outreach to neighboring countries and the policies it has announced so far, including its vow to respect women’s rights. The implication of the two assessments is that Chinese leaders believe the Taliban is here to stay and is no longer as radical and extremist as it was 20 years ago. Translating this belief into practical policies, Beijing will likely give the Taliban the benefit of the doubt and endorse the group as long as it does not repeat anything outrageous….

Interestingly, a sharp difference of outlook exists between strategists and country/regional experts. Strategists see Afghanistan as a golden opportunity for China to expand its influence and replace the United States as a responsible and effective leader to help the country. As argued by Zhou Bo, a retired People’s Liberation Army senior colonel, China is ready to step in to fill the void left by the United States and exploit Afghanistan’s natural resources and critical location for the Belt and Road Initiative. In this blueprint, if China treads carefully and supports the Taliban at this opportune moment, there is a potential for China to engineer and create useful loyalty in Afghanistan as a strategic asset.

However, many country and regional experts have major reservations over this bold proposal. Having long witnessed the endless conflicts, ferocious tribal politics, religious and ethnic divisions, and economic difficulties of Afghanistan, they advocate for a sober understanding of Afghanistan’s fame as a  “graveyard for empires” and a much more cautious attitude toward any hasty adventures. Mei Xinyu, a prominent economist from the Ministry of Commerce, has argued that, after the Taliban takeover, China should not rejoice over the post-U.S. Afghan economy and should refrain from large equity investment. Ye Hailin, a veteran South Asia expert at the China Academy of Social Sciences, quickly questioned the Taliban’s ability to absorb the consequences of its easy and swift military success. Most people in this group advocate for China’s “constructive involvement” in Afghanistan, but with a thoughtful approach against hasty decisions to rush into the country.

Turkey: The Middle Man of Europe?

The Turkish government has adapted to changing events in Afghanistan and is prepared to de facto recognize the Taliban and engage with the new leadership in Kabul to advance its own interests. Before the rapid collapse of the Afghan army and the Ghani government, Turkey had sought to formalize its presence in a post-American Afghanistan. To do so, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sought to walk a fine line of engagement with the United States and NATO, on the one hand, and seeking Taliban acquiesce to a long-term Turkish role on the other.

I know some would disagree with me however time and time again I’ve found that Turkish and Russian leadership, both, operate in a similarly pragmatic fashion.

Turkey’s engagement with Washington revolved around a (US) request for the Turkish military to retain a non-combat presence at the Hamid Karzai International Airport, where it has had soldiers based for more than a decade. These soldiers would help the post-U.S. withdrawal Afghan government run the airport, including to help oversee flight operations at the only international airport in the country. From the outset of these negotiations, the Turkish government demanded financial compensation from NATO and the United States to subsidize the mission and requested that a contingent of American combat forces remain at the base to protect it from external attacks. Ankara had also requested a European presence, approaching both Hungary and Georgia to deploy forces, according to interviews with NATO officials.

Ankara also sought to negotiate with the Taliban, working with its two allies, Qatar and Pakistan, to win support from the group before finalizing the agreement to take over airport operations. Turkey’s engagement with the Taliban before the fall of Kabul foreshadowed Ankara’s policy decisions following the Taliban’s takeover of the country. Since the fall of Kabul, the Turkish-NATO agreement to run the airport after the completion of the withdrawal has collapsed. Ankara, however, has proposed a similar agreement to the Taliban, offering to operate the airport and provide technical support if the Taliban leadership expresses interest in working with Ankara. The Taliban turned down Ankara’s offers to retain troops at the base, and Turkish forces began their withdrawal on Aug. 25. Despite the withdrawal, the Turkish leadership has retained an interest in retaining a civilian presence in the country and is continuing to negotiate with the Taliban about retaining a presence at the airport, with some international support.

The US requested agreement fell apart, possibly before it had ever been realized. Turkey made an offer to the Taliban they turned down the offer, but, Ankara continues to negotiate a deal on retaining civilian presence in the country some presence at the airport.

Erdoğan’s de facto recognition of the Taliban is part of a broader strategy linked to longstanding Turkish foreign policy and tethered to negative domestic feelings about irregular migration.

Afghanistan- Birthing a New Order– Weaponized migration was mentioned specifically regarding Turkey’s stance.

The AKP has rapidly begun to build a wall along its border with Iran, matching the wall it has built on its border with Syria, and has signaled to European and Russian leaders that it will not serve as a way station for Afghan migrants.

A Dual Track Approach From Moscow: Containment and Engagement

With the recent Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, Russia finds itself in somewhat familiar historical territory. Moscow is no stranger to Afghanistan, having fought its own bloody war there for 10 years, from 1979 to 1989. Yet, from a Russian perspective, this Taliban conquest is markedly different from when Taliban forces took over the country in the mid-1990s. Russia’s ambassador to Afghanistan reported from a recent meeting with the Taliban that they see relations with Russia as very friendly and have taken up guard outside of the Russian embassy. A Taliban spokesperson claimed that they have “very good relations with Russia.” The contrast with Western reactions, seeing the Taliban’s ascendance as a marker of defeat in the conflict, places Russia’s strategy in stark relief.

What is Russia looking for specifically? No spread of instability from Afghanistan to bordering Central Asian states, no terrorist attacks against Russia from groups based in Afghanistan, and no support for radicalism in Russia. As the takeover appeared imminent, a Taliban delegation visited Moscow in July to assuage Russian concerns on these grounds. At the meeting, Russia’s envoy Zamir Kabulov emphasized the importance of tensions not “spreading beyond the country’s borders” and claimed he had received assurances from the Taliban that they wouldn’t violate the borders of Central Asian states or allow the use of their territory for attacks against Russia. Moscow would also like to see an inclusive government formed, but, in truth, it cares less about the internal workings of Afghanistan and has few interests in the country. An inclusive government would make the Taliban regime less of a pariah state, render it easier to engage, and perhaps present other opportunities. Russia would also like to see a reduction in drug trafficking headed north, but this is a tertiary goal.

Moscow had opened channels with the Taliban as far back as 2015 and has held multiple rounds of inter-Afghan talks in the capital since 2018. While Russia had justified this reengagement based on a common goal, the fight against the metastasizing Islamic State-Khorasan Province, it was also hedging against the Afghan government, assuming it might fall whenever U.S. forces withdrew. These ties only grew more visible and stronger in recent years, though Russia is unlikely to have much trust in Afghanistan’s new rulers. The Russian government did not care for the U.S.-backed regime, but significantly, Russia also has no alternative options to dealing with the Taliban. Ironically, the Taliban came back quite stronger in 2021 than it ever was in 2001. Forces opposed to the Taliban in the Panjshir valley are now mounting a resistance, but Ahmad Massoud, son of the famed mujahedeen fighter Ahmad Shah Massoud, is not a serious challenger to Taliban control of the country.

Massoud may not be a serious challenger, but, ISIS-Khorasan will fill that role

Khorasan Appears/Reappears in Afghanistan!

Russia also seeks to deter further Taliban encroachment, containing their movement to Afghanistan. Moscow held several recent military exercises in Central Asia, including a joint exercise with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on the Afghan border. The message to the Taliban is for them to not overplay their hand and pursue any ambitions beyond the Afghan border, which Moscow has signaled will be fiercely defended. Across the way is the 201st Russian military base, a sizable force responsible for backstopping Tajikistan’s security forces. Hence, Russian forces are forward deployed in the region and can facilitate the arrival of further troops from its Central Military District, or supporting airborne units. Russia has substantial capacity for power projection in the region, exercises with Central Asian states regularly, and could respond quickly to a military crisis, perhaps in collaboration with China.

Nearby Turkmenistan is a well-armed hermit kingdom, featuring a personalized authoritarian regime, and it has amicable relations with the Taliban. Here Russia’s task is made easier in terms of local capacity. Central Asia today is not composed of newly independent states, or weak teetering regimes, but rather authoritarian governments that have proven capable of maintaining independence and securing their own interests among intervening external actors. Some have undergone power transfers, and the region as a whole is more stable and consolidated than it was in the 1990s. As Alex Cooley writes, “far from a political vacuum, there is a patchwork of structures that Central Asian actors are increasingly convinced they should use to govern the region.”

Conclusion

All three countries are adopting certain hedging strategies. Among the three, China appears most eager to venture into Afghanistan, followed closely by Turkish eagerness to retain a presence at the airport. Turkey, it appears, is the only one of the three eager to have a military presence in the country. However, Chinese enthusiasm is still subject to strong calls for caution. There is a similar dynamic in Turkey, where the population is concerned about an open-ended military deployment to support the airport but is also determined to stem illegal migration. If the Taliban’s victory proves unsustainable, China and Russia will most likely join hands to develop a common security strategy to seal off any spillover effect from Afghanistan. Recent proposals of building a buffer zone in Tajikistan reflect preparations in this direction. The Turkish strategy is not necessarily in tension with those of China and Russia, but it is more focused on cultivating economic links and retaining control over the airport. Between China and Turkey, policy consultations are likely, but cooperative actions do not appear imminent. Moscow won’t be returning anytime soon, with the 1989 Soviet withdrawal still fresh in the collective memory of its political leadership. Engagement and containment characterize Russia’s approach, with Moscow well-positioned to coordinate a regional security response.

There is much more at the opening link. As always share some thoughts!

Earlier today there were warnings issued by US/UK that this was a very real possibility and they had specifically named Khorasan. I could barely believe my eyes! And yet I could!

CBS

“The U.S. and Britain have warned citizens not to go to Kabul’s airport, citing a terror threat to the sprawling facility outside of which thousands of desperate people have gathered since the Taliban’s retaking of Afghanistan. The U.S. Embassy in Kabul sent out an alert on Wednesday evening advising U.S. citizens in Afghanistan to avoid traveling to the airport, citing an unspecified security threat amid frantic efforts to evacuate Americans and vulnerable Afghans. 

It wasn’t immediately clear what specific intelligence prompted the U.S. embassy’s advisory, but President Biden warned this week of the ongoing threat posed by the ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan, ISIS Khorosan or ISIS-K. A senior British official did indicate that ISIS-K was behind the latest, urgent threat in Kabul“

Pentagon confirms explosion outside Kabul airport as U.S. rushes toward Afghanistan evacuation deadline

The Pentagon on Thursday confirmed an explosion near Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, where Western forces are rushing to evacuate as many people as possible out of the country.

It was unclear whether there were any casualties, according to the Pentagon’s top spokesman, John Kirby.

A White House official told NBC News that President Joe Biden was briefed on the blast.

Deja vu? 9/11 anniversary just two weeks away..

The name Khorasan has reappeared. And it’s caught my eye! Why?
Let’s go wayback to 2014. Sept 23/2014 at the my prior abode

Oh and btw- the new terror group- Khorasan?

    Greater Khorasan, a historic region which lies mainly in modern-day Iran. It was previously known as Parthia; later, during the Sassanid era, it was changed to Khorasan.

Why are they called Khorasan?

   Khorasan was an ancient province of eastern Persia, which the group aims to recreate. The territory encompasses present-day Afghanistan, eastern Iran, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. According to jihadists, this the place where they will defeat their enemies.

Oops I mean Khorasan, yeah, yeah, Khorasan the terrorist group:

While the army also known as ISIS continues to seize land in the region, Khorasan seems to have its sights set on attacking the U.S.

Link above

This name reappearing right before the 20th anniversary of 9/11?

November 06/2014: US Strikes Khorasan,in Syria,again?! Dead bombmaker and an update

Where is this Khorasan story line going to take us? To Iran? Lebanon? Or into Turkey?
Options. So many options…..
Quote below came from BBC:
“The US military says it has carried out air strikes against the al-Qaeda-linked Khorasan group in north-western Syria.”

The US hit five targets related to the group, including several vehicles and buildings, near the border with Turkey.

Little is known about Khorasan other than information released by US officials.

October 30 19:29

(ANSAmed) - WASHINGTON, Oct. 30 - The US intelligence believes that two key leaders of jihadist group Khorasan are still alive, although the target of the first US raids on Syria, and that they are plotting attacks in Europe. This was reported by CNN.

The two are the group's leader,* Muhsin al-Fadhli, given up for dead in September, and *David Drugeon, a jihadist French and key member of the group, expert in bomb-making; according to the US are still alive even though they may be injured in the raid. "At 99.5% are alive," he told CNN an intelligence analyst.

Taliban and the “ISIS in Khorasan” any Confrontation in Afghanistan?
Levant News

Before I get to the news article want to share the information for this primary source

“Levant an independent media organization that broadcasts daily news on the Internet, and a printed newspaper published in London and distributed in European capitals in both Arabic and English.”

Very spooky…

The controversy still exists about the nature of the relationship between the Taliban and the “Khorasan Province – ISIS” in eastern Afghanistan, i.e., will there be operations for the Province of Khorasan against the Taliban in the wake of the movement’s control of Afghanistan?

It seems that there is competition and the possibility of the Khorasan Province carrying out terrorist operations. Khorasan is hostile to Taliban, who seized power in Afghanistan in mid-August 2021.

Sullivan, US National Security Adviser said that the expulsion of Americans from Afghanistan by Taliban is a “risky process” as it depends on whether the Taliban will continue to allow safe passage to the airport and other emergencies such as a possible attack from a militant group such as Khorasan Province. .

A great number of Salafist and jihadists joined the Khorasan Organization, (ring any bells?) in order to fight other armed movements such as the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, as well as the regional governments. The “Khorasan Province” includes all of Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, but the organization is still known as ISIS in Afghanistan.

The Afghan security forces arrested the leader of the ISIS branch in Khorasan Province in Afghanistan, Islam Farooq, also known as *Abdullah Orakzai, during an “intelligence operation” in early April 2020. The Afghan branch of ISIS escalated its attacks in the Afghan capital, often targeting religious minorities.The Khorasan organization has been facing operations launched by the US forces, and by Taliban movement.

The “Khorasan” organization is considered one of the most powerful branches of the “ISIS” organization, because of its ability to spread, especially in the Pakistani tribal areas and the province of “Nanjarhar”, and some areas of “Kunar” province; and strength its control over a number of areas, and imposing its strict laws .

It is expected that Afghanistan-Khorasan will witness more polarization to extremist groups, especially joining the Khorasan Province from Iraq, Syria, Africa and Europe, and this means that the Khorasan Province may witness a wide growth of terror in near future.

Doesn’t that all read with a familiarity?

The competition will remain between the Taliban and the Khorasan Province, because the latter includes large numbers of defectors from the Taliban movement. The possibility of the Khorasan Province carrying out terrorist operations in Afghanistan remains high perhaps targeting the corridors leading to the Kabul airport.

20th anniversary of 9/11 less then 3 weeks away……* wonder if the names mentioned will reappear?

Related: Afghanistan- Birthing a New Order