*New Sanctions on Russian Oil-” Because Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war”

The Trump administration slapped sanctions on two major Russian oil companies Wednesday, upping the pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin as the war in Ukraine drags on.

“These are tremendous sanctions against their two big oil companies and we hope that they won’t be on for long,” Trump told reporters Wednesday. “We hope that the war will be settled.”

“Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine,” Treasury Secretary Scott said in a press release. “Treasury is prepared to take further action if necessary to support President Trump’s effort to end yet another war. We encourage our allies to join us in and adhere to these sanctions.”

My own impression of the Hungary meeting was one of a Trump admin ruse. Let’s sit down and negotiate, but, really… there was little to no chance of the meeting taking place because of the sanctions regiment in place. So it was an easy pr move for Trump’s gov.

While Rubio and Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov did speak, the White House called off the meeting between Trump and Putin afterwards.

“President Putin has not come to the table in an honest and forthright manner, as we’d hoped. There were talks in Alaska, President Trump walked away when he realized that things were not moving forward,” he said. “There have been behind-the-scenes talks, but I believe that the president is disappointed at the — where we are in these talks.”

President Putin has always been straight foward regarding the intent of the special military operation-

U.S. Lifts Key Restriction on Ukraine’s Use of Western Long-Range Missiles— Archive.ph

Trump denies this report is true- I’m of the mind Trump is, of course, lying. Just another piece from Trump’s Fabrication repertoire

WASHINGTON—The Trump administration has lifted a key restriction on Ukraine’s use of some long-range missiles provided by Western allies, enabling Kyiv to step up attacks on targets inside Russia and increase pressure on the Kremlin, U.S. officials said Wednesday. Ukraine used a British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missile on Tuesday to strike a Russian plant in Bryansk that produced explosives and rocket fuel, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces announced on social media. It called the strike a “successful hit” that penetrated Russian air defenses.

The unannounced U.S. move to enable Kyiv to use the missile in Russia comes after authority for supporting such attacks was recently transferred from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon to the top U.S. general in Europe, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, who also serves as NATO commander.

France 24 Another strike on alleged drug trafficking kills two

The US military launched its eighth strike against an alleged drug-carrying vessel, killing two people in the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday, marking an expansion of the Trump administration’s campaign against drug trafficking in South America.

The attack Tuesday night was a departure from the seven previous US strikes that had targeted vessels in the Caribbean. Hegseth said on social media that the latest strike killed two people, bringing the death toll to at least 34 from attacks that began last month.

The strike marks an expansion of the military’s targeting area in South American waters as well as a shift to Colombia, where much of the cocaine from the world’s largest producer is smuggled. Hegseth’s post also draws a direct comparison between the war on terrorism that the US declared after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and the Trump administration’s crackdown.

“Just as al Qaeda waged war on our homeland, these cartels are waging war on our border and our people,” Hegseth said, adding “there will be no refuge or forgiveness – only justice.”

Republican President Donald Trump has justified the strikes by asserting that the United States is engaged in an “armed conflict” with drug cartels and proclaiming the criminal organisations as unlawful combatants, relying on the same legal authority used by President George W. Bush’s administration when it declared a war on terrorism.

In a brief video Hegseth posted Wednesday, a small boat, half-filled with brown packages, is seen moving along the water. Several seconds into the video, the boat explodes and is seen floating motionless on the water in flames.

The administration has sidestepped prosecuting any of the occupants of the alleged drug-running vessels after returning two survivors of an earlier strike to their home countries of Ecuador and Colombia

Ecuadorian officials later said they released the man that was returned to their country, saying that they had no evidence he committed a crime in their country.

The US- Rogue State and Global Outlier

PBS

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The United States once again vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution Thursday that had demanded for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages after saying that the effort did not go far enough in condemning Hamas.

All 14 other members of the United Nations’ most powerful body voted in favor of the resolution, which described the humanitarian situation in Gaza as “catastrophic” and called on Israel to lift all restrictions on the delivery of aid to the 2.1 million Palestinians in the territory. The outcome further highlights U.S. and Israeli isolation on the world stage regarding the nearly two-year war (ethnic cleansing/genocide) in Gaza.

The vote came just days ahead of the annual gathering of world leaders at the U.N. General Assembly, where Gaza will be a major topic and where major U.S. allies are expected to recognize an independent Palestinian state. It is a largely symbolic move that is vehemently opposed by Israel and the U.S., dividing the Trump administration from close allies, including the U.K. and France.

The resolution, drafted by the council’s 10 elected members who serve two-year terms, goes further than previous drafts to highlight what it calls the “deepening of suffering ” of Palestinian civilians.

It also reiterates demands from previous resolutions, including for the release of all hostages held by Hamas and other militant groups following their Oct. 7, 2023, (not a) surprise attack in southern Israel that launched the war in Gaza.

In opposing similar resolutions since November, the U.S. has complained that the demands, including a ceasefire, were not directly linked to the unconditional release of hostages and would only embolden Hamas militants.

Israel was always going to use October 7 as the catalyst for the desired expansion. Cui Bono?

There’s a near media blackout in Gaza, but, the little information I’ve seen… Israel is going big on the attacks- It’s going to be a slaughter- Israel knows this and they are proceeding anyway

Washington Times

The new plan, which was approved in an early morning vote by Israeli Cabinet ministers, also calls for hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to move to Gaza’s south. That would likely amount to their forcible displacement and exacerbate an already dire humanitarian crisis.

From my censored site- 2009

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2009/10/israel-not-after-real-peace-with.html

An unapproved document outlining Israel's future foreign policy states that the government should not attempt to reach a permanent settlement with the Palestinians but should focus instead on a temporary accord to prevent US and European frustration.

This means, just buy time, that’s all. Buy time-try to fool the international community and then continue on our merry way.

This is more of the same old, same old. Israel has never wanted peace with the Palestinians nor have they ever wanted to see a two state solution.

This is playing out in real time. Now. And for the past decades.

Link

Israel’s Channel 12 said Smotrich made the comments at a conference on settlement policy in the illegal Ofra settlement in the occupied West Bank.

“Within a few months … Gaza will be totally destroyed,” he said. “The Gazan citizens will be concentrated in the south. They will be totally despairing, understanding that there is no hope and nothing to look for in Gaza, and will be looking for relocation to begin a new life in other places.”

More than 15 yrs ago at my censored site

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2010/03/israel-set-to-export-natural-gas-but-is.html

Sadly the links are no longer viable, save for one at the end.

Israel, a country that is notoriously empty of natural resources.
Set to become an exporter of natural gas?
Two undersea gas fields? Belonging to a country notoriously empty of natural resources?
This doesn’t make any sense. Unless you realize that the natural gas, is also off the coast of Gaza.

My next question would be why would the Israeli Government and Noble Energy select to drill right on the Gaza (Palestinian) border?”

This link is still working

Global Research

More than 36 billion cubic meters of Gaza’s natural gas have been stolen for two decades amid systematic closure of the enclave to protect the interests of American and Israeli gas companies.

Since the early occupation of Palestine, Israeli occupation authorities adopted systematic policies to control land and water resources in cooperation with the British government including the use of military overpower to set realities on the ground and enact laws and military orders to shape the future of the occupation.

One more for your reading pleasure? Or displeasure?

The Other Reason Trump Wants Gaza: Getting Its Off-Shore Gas

But there is another deal Trump has in mind. In the waters off of Gaza are untapped gas fields, which may interest the U.S. president even more than hotels and beaches. The “Gaza Marine” field in the Eastern Mediterranean, discovered by British Petroleum in 1999, is located 36 kilometers west of the Gazan coast, spaning an area exceeding 1,000 square kilometers, according to official Palestinian figures.

There are massive gas fields in the Mediterranean- A very large one of the coast of Gaza- Of course Israel claims it as their own. There are also gas fields off the coast of Lebanon- Israel also claims that as their own.

We can understand that the Greater Israel expansion is a land and resource grab. Fully backed by the US.

Part of this plan is to cut Turkey out of the picture as well as Russia. Hence the Gene Sharp type protests in Turkey. Calculated in an attempt to delegitimize Turkey leadership. Also to interfere in Black Sea shipping by forcing Turkey’s hand despite the Montreaux Accord. If Israel, Cyprus and Greece can succeed with their planned pipeline- they will be the providers of gas to Europe, thereby rendering Russia unnecessary as a resource provider. It’s a big plan, that’s been in the works for a while now– Birth pangs. We are witnessing this in real time, as the plan, long in the process of being carried out, proceeds or advances.

original url

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2017/01/greece-israel-stars-aligned-italy.html

 Government representatives from Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Israel plan to meet in February to discuss a natural gas pipeline from the east Mediterranean fields to Greece and Italy, according to a report in Globes, a business daily.

Israel energy minister Yuval Steinitz has already met Enel CEO Francesco Starace (pictured below) to discuss possible gas deals with the Italian power generator as production in northern Europe is declining. Enel also buys gas from Algeria.

An EU-sponsored survey last year found the 2,000-km pipeline would cost $5.7bn. The project will connect the Israeli Leviathan gas field, the offshore Cypriot Aphrodite gas field and possibly other gas fields to buyers in southern Europe.

A map on the European Commision's website shows a line starting east of Cyprus and running to Crete and from there up the west coast of mainland Greece to the Adriatic and then to Italy.

Map accessible via the wayback

https://wayback.archive-it.org/12090/20171219234014/https://ec.europa.eu/inea/en/connecting-europe-facility/cef-energy/projects-by-country/multi-country/7.3.1-0025-elcy-s-m-15

 The pipeline would have a 12bn m³/yr capacity and the idea is for the project to be built by private-sector companies without public funding (lie, the public funds the wars that make the areas usable..), although with the moral support of the European Union.

There is always public funding for big oil. What the heck does everyone think the carbon tax is really about?

Gas experts, however, are not convinced that the project can be achieved. An Israeli expert who was asked about the project's feasibility said the chances were zero as the project cost calculations were far too low and the project is just a PR stunt.

I’ve read this elsewhere also- unsure of the actual reserves- high, high costs. But there is all that public funding (debt enslavement) to help keep costs down- for big oil

Russian oil major Rosneft has also talked about piping gas from Egypt to Europe, an idea unlikely to meet with the same degree of support from the European Commission given the strong position Russia already holds in gas supplies. Egypt's own gas demand is also growing.

EU

 A key part of ensuring secure and affordable (?) supplies of energy to Europeans involves diversifying supply routes. This includes identifying and building new routes that decrease the dependence of EU countries on a single supplier of natural gas and other energy resources.

Israel sees ‘stars aligned’ for new gas pipeline to Europe- The Guardian via The Cypriot Puzzle

From 2014:

Israel and Cyprus have launched a new push for EU funds to build a pipeline that could bring about 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) of their natural gas to Europe annually, and ease the continent’s energy security anxieties. 

But Palestinians are warning that without a broader resolution of regional disputes, the pipeline risks becoming a source of conflict.

The Cyprus-centred project could be the world’s longest pipeline if built, stretching up to 1,530km, and passing through depths of up to 3,000m.

The Israeli energy minister, Silvan Shalom, raised the issue at a ministerial conference in Rome last week and held talks on the margins with the EU’s vice president for energy union, Maros Sefkovic, Israeli sources say. 

Israel, Greece and Cyprus expect a formal meeting with Sefkovic to discuss ways of actualising the project, on the fringes of an EU energy ministers’ summit on 9 December.

“The three countries involved intend to raise this issue [on the 9th] as it involves funding from the commission,” an EU diplomat said. Israel, as a non-EU member, will depend on its partner countries’ powers of persuasion. 

With energy diversification and security both rising up Europe’s political agenda, “it looks like the stars have aligned in one position now and that might be good for our timing,” Guy Feldman, an advisor to Shalom told the Guardian. 

But the Palestinian Authority cautioned the EU against signing any contract until territorial gas disputes with neighbouring countries such as Lebanon were resolved.
“The objective of energy security starts with a clear cut boundary of all the gas fields,” said the PA’s energy minister, Omar Kettaneh. “Otherwise instead of being a source of security the pipeline will be a source of conflict.” 

In 2010, the US Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that the Levant Basin, could hold more than 3,455bcm of gas, which is comparable to Iraq’s reserves.

But until now, political instability has hindered its exploitation, with Israeli and Cypriot claims to overlapping gas fields contested by Lebanon and Turkey, respectively.
In 2012, Israel, Cyprus and Greece signed a deal to promote exports of their gas to the EU through an eastern Mediterranean corridor. 

The planned offshore pipeline, which diplomats say could transport between 8-15bcm of natural gas annually, has already been selected for “project of common interest” status by the EU. This potentially gives it access to a €5.85bn fund, and preferential treatment from multilateral banks.

Clearly you can see the why of the conflict Israel has opted to engage in with Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.

When you read the 2nd repost- You’ll notice that Russia was left out of these talks although Russia has strong connections to Cyprus.

The US and Israel have rejected an Arab plan for the post-war reconstruction of the Gaza Strip that would allow the 2.1 million Palestinians living there to stay in place.

The proposal, endorsed by Arab leaders at a summit in Cairo, is their alternative to President Donald Trump’s idea for the US to take over Gaza and permanently resettle its population.

The Palestinian Authority and Hamas welcomed the Arab plan, which calls for Gaza to be governed temporarily by a committee of independent experts and for international peacekeepers to be deployed there.

But both the White House and Israeli foreign ministry said it failed to address realities in Gaza and stood by Trump’s vision.

Israel has blocked aid from entering the territory to pressure Hamas to accept a new US (Israel) proposal for a temporary extension of the truce, during which more hostages held in Gaza would be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.

The $53bn (£41bn) Arab plan for rebuilding Gaza once the war ends was presented by Egypt at an emergency Arab League summit on Tuesday.

A statement endorsing the plan stressed “the categorical rejection of any form of displacement of the Palestinian people”, describing such an idea as “a gross violation of international law, a crime against humanity and ethnic cleansing”.

Middle East Eye for additional reading

And yes Israel reneged as expected, with Trump on side.

Regarding the ICC arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant?

I have my doubts they will be arrested. However, from a public relations/perception management point of view. This is very bad for Israel’s reputation in the world. And the over reaction of some parties suggests to me, this is a blow out in the court of public opinion to Israel, US and UK, in particular.

From the Economist via Archive.ph

Both the prime minister and the court that issued the warrant will suffer

FOR MONTHS the decision seemed both inevitable and improbable. On November 21st it finally came. The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and Yoav Gallant, until recently the defence minister (pictured right).

They are accused of overseeing war crimes during Israel’s year-long war in Gaza against Hamas, a Palestinian militant group. The court also indicted the top commander of Hamas, which carried out a massacre of Israelis that triggered Israel’s assault on Gaza. But it is the charges against the two Israeli politicians that are the real earthquake: a diplomatic disaster for Mr Netanyahu, and perhaps also for the court itself.

This decision is vastly worse for Mr Netanyahu, but the ICC will come under attack, particularly by the US.

Karim Khan, the ICC’s prosecutor, requested the warrants in May. The case he brought is separate from allegations of Israeli acts of genocide against Palestinians pending before the International Court of Justice, which hears disputes between states (the ICC prosecutes individuals). The type of charges brought against Messrs Netanyahu and Gallant are easier to prove than a charge of genocide against Israel would be: they are accused of using starvation as a weapon of war in Gaza, and of directing attacks against civilians in the territory.

A three-judge panel found “reasonable grounds to believe” that such crimes had occurred. Recent events no doubt bolstered Mr Khan’s case: the United Nations continues to warn of imminent famine in northern Gaza, which has been largely cut off from humanitarian aid for the past 40 days. The panel rejected a procedural challenge from Israel, which argued that the court has no jurisdiction in Gaza. Palestine, of which Gaza forms a part, is a signatory to the Rome Statute, the legal framework for the ICC. The judges ruled that gave them authority to investigate crimes committed there.

The ICC is meant to be a court of last resort that steps in when a country’s own courts fail to prosecute abuses. Israel’s attorney-general told Mr Netanyahu this year that forming a state commission of inquiry might stall the ICC’s probe. But he has yet to appoint one, and the judges noted Israel’s failure to do so in their decision.

The ruling drew near-universal condemnation from Israeli politicians. Bezalel Smotrich, the far-right finance minister, called it a “mark of Cain” on the ICC, while Yair Golan, the head of a left-wing party, called it a “shameful decision”. Many Israelis argued that it was the result of antisemitism: Mr Netanyahu himself called it a “modern Dreyfus trial”, referring to the wrongful prosecution of a Jewish officer in the French army in 1894.

But the charge of antisemitism cheapens the term. Nothing about the court’s history suggests a fixation with Jews. Since it was founded in 2002 the ICC has mostly prosecuted African warlords and despots, the likes of Omar al-Bashir, a Sudanese dictator, and Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son of Libya’s longtime tyrant. Over the past two years it has issued warrants for a number of Russian officials, including Vladimir Putin, for the invasion of Ukraine. This is the first time it has indicted Israelis.

Along with Messrs Netanyahu and Gallant, the ICC issued a warrant for Muhammad Deif, the longtime Hamas military chief. He is accused of directing the murder, torture and rape of civilians on October 7th 2023, among other offences. Mr Deif probably cannot stand trial: Israel believes he was killed in an air strike in July (the court issued a warrant because it could not confirm his fate). Mr Khan had also requested warrants for Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the massacre, and Ismail Haniyeh, the group’s leader at the time. Those requests were withdrawn because both men were killed by Israel this year.

There is no risk that Israel will extradite Messrs Netanyahu or Gallant to The Hague, since the country is not a member of the ICC. But 124 other countries are, including many of Israel’s closest friends. The most immediate consequence of the judgment is that both men will be unable to travel to those countries for fear of arrest. Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign-policy chief, said the court’s decision was binding on all EU members. “Netanyahu has ended his journey as a legitimate leader in the international arena,” wrote Eran Etzion, a former deputy national security adviser under Mr Netanyahu.

The main exception, of course, is America, which is not a member of the court. The decision has thrown a bombshell into America’s presidential transition. It will embarrass Joe Biden’s outgoing administration, divide Democrats and outrage Republicans as they prepare to take control of the White House and both houses of Congress in January.
Leading Republicans have warned that America will impose sanctions on the ICC—with support from Democrats if possible or without it if necessary. Mike Waltz, whom Donald Trump has chosen to be his national security adviser, promised a “strong response” to the court’s “antisemitic bias”. John Thune, the Senate’s incoming majority leader, denounced the ICC’s move as “outrageous, unlawful and dangerous”. He said that its actions, left unchecked, “could pose a threat to the United States in the future”.

He urged Chuck Schumer, the Democratic majority leader in the Senate, to take up a bill passed by the Republican-controlled House in June that would apply sweeping economic sanctions and visa restrictions to judges and others linked to the ICC, including their family members. If not, he warned, Republicans would do so in January as a “top priority”.

The writing was on the wall- the US knew this. Hence a bill passed in June to apply sweeping sanctions etc.,

Democrats, for their part, are increasingly split over the war in the Middle East. On November 20th the Senate firmly rejected three motions calling on Mr Biden to halt various weapons shipments to Israel, but 17 of the 47 Democrats, and two independents who support them, voted for at least one of the critical motions. The Biden administration is in a quandary. It has opposed legal action against Israel, but it has supported the court in issuing an arrest warrant for Mr Putin and has resisted the House sanctions bill as going too far.
Ironically, it may be the court that suffers the most immediate consequences in the form of sanctions imposed by America. Mr Netanyahu is not about to end up in the dock, nor is Israel about to end its war in Gaza. But the judgment will have long-term consequences: both Mr Netanyahu and the country he leads will be more isolated and more dependent on the United States. ■

The US loved the ICC when it was issuing arrest warrants for African warlords and Vladimir Putin- who were, not coincidentally, being targeted by the US. Now it is the US alone that stands unquestioningly beside Israel as it commits very obvious and open war crimes. Israeli leadership doesn’t hide what they are doing. Israeli soldiers do not hide what they are doing. The rest of the planet is aware of what is being done by the Israelis against the Palestinians.

The world is changing. The US refuses to accept the change. Pax Americana is weaker and more dangerous-

Re: Orban and Netanyahu- This is politics. He hasn’t supported the arrest warrant for Putin, so he’s not going to support this one.

Nov 20 (Reuters) – The United States on Wednesday vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza, drawing criticism of the Biden administration for once again blocking international action aimed at halting Israel’s war with Hamas.
The 15-member council voted on a resolution put forward by 10 non-permanent members that called for an “immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” in the 13-month conflict and separately demanded the release of hostages.

Only the U.S. voted against, using its veto as a permanent council member to block the resolution.

Members roundly criticized the U.S. for blocking the resolution put forward by the council’s 10 elected members: Algeria, Ecuador, Guyana, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, South Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia and Switzerland.

“It is deeply regretted that due to the use of the veto this council has once again failed to uphold its responsibility to maintain international peace and security,” Malta’s U.N. Ambassador Vanessa Frazier said after the vote failed, adding that the text of the resolution “was by no means a maximalist one.”

Can Ukraine’s Deadly Land Mines Approved by Biden Stop Russian Advancement?

The U.S. will send antipersonnel land mines to Ukraine in the second major policy shift from the winding-down Joe Biden administration in only a few days, although it remains to be seen just how much of a difference these mines will make in the face of Moscow’s advances. President Biden, who is in a last-ditch effort to supply Ukraine in his final two months in office, greenlit the supply of antipersonnel land mines to Kyiv, a U.S. defense official told Newsweek. The mines will become inactive after a predetermined period of time, the official said. Ukraine has committed not to use the mines in densely populated civilian areas, the official added. U.S. officials told The Washington Post, which first reported on the approval, that the Pentagon assesses the mines could be one of the most effective ways to slow Russia’s attacks, which have yielded battlefield gains in the east throughout the year.

Land mines can be effective military tools, but are controversial among human rights groups as they can pose a danger to civilians for a long time. They are banned by over 150 countries, although this does not include Russia or the U.S. The latter has already furnished Ukraine, which is the most mined country in the world, with land mines designed to take out armored vehicles and tanks. Russia has reportedly used more than a dozen types of antipersonnel land mines in Ukraine, according to Human Rights Watch.

You can also read more at Defense One

Storm Shadow Missiles fired into Russia for the first time

UK-made Storm Shadow missiles fired into Russia for the first time

Dan Sabbagh in Kyiv and Andrew Roth in Washington report on the use of Storm Shadow missiles

Ukraine has fired UK-made Storm Shadow missiles into Russia for the first time since the beginning of the conflict, the Guardian understands according to multiple sources.

The decision to approve the strikes was made in response to the deployment of more than 10,000 North Korean troops on Russia’s border with Ukraine in what UK and US officials have warned was a major escalation of the nearly three-year-old conflict.

The Guardian earlier this week reported that the UK would soon approve Storm Shadow missiles for use inside Russia after the US president, Joe Biden, agreed to do the same for the similar American Atacms weapon.

It was not immediately clear what Ukraine used the Storm Shadow missiles to target. Unconfirmed images distributed via the Telegram messaging app appeared to show fragments of the missile at a location with the Kursk region. One weapons expert, Trevor Ball, formerly of the US Army said the images circulating did show Storm Shadow fragments though he could verify if they were current or old pictures.

Biden says he has good idea of how and when Israel will respond to Iranian attack

US President Joe Biden said Friday that he has a good understanding of how and when Israel plans to respond to Iran’s recent ballistic missile attack.

How are we defining “good understanding”?

Pressed by reporters during a visit to Germany, Biden declined to share any details regarding Israel’s planned response to the October 1 attack missile attack, though his remarks appeared to mark the first time the US indicated it has reached an understanding with Israel on the nature of the retaliation.

Asked by reporters about the prospects of “Middle East peace,” Biden said he sees an “opportunity…that we can probably deal with Israel and Iran in a way that ends the conflict for a while… stops the back and forth.”

“We think that there’s a possibility of working for a ceasefire in Lebanon. It’s going to be harder in Gaza, but we agree that there has to be an outcome, what happens in the day after,” the president added, without elaborating why he thought this way.

For nearly two weeks, Israeli officials said they were still deliberating how to respond to the roughly 200 ballistic missiles fired by Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted to consult first with Biden, which didn’t happen until October 10.

Since the call, the US has dispatched a THAAD air defense battery to Israel to protect the country in case of an Iranian reaction to Israel’s reprisal. US soldiers were deployed to operate the system, underscoring US support for Israel’s defense while also undercutting the Jewish state’s long stated position that it will defend itself by itself.

On Wednesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned UN chief Antonio Guterres that Tehran is ready for a “decisive and regretful” response if Israel attacks his country.

Israel has never and was never going to defend itself alone. (Unless it used nukes) The Israeli leadership can make such claims, but, they are just empty words-

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said this week that Israel “will soon respond” to the missile attack, vowing it will be “precise and deadly.”

According to reports this week, Israel has decided on the targets it could potentially strike in Iran.

Channel 12 said the military presented a list of targets to Netanyahu and Gallant as it finalizes preparations, which include “sensitive coordination” with other countries in the region.

2nd- Why Israel Won’t Take the Win ( The killing of Sinwar etc.,)

An interesting opinion peace

Select excerpts,

So maybe, if Biden finally uses his full leverage as Israel’s arms supplier, he can compellingly argue that, as he put it at an earlier juncture, Netanyahu should “take the win.”

But there’s little chance that much of this will happen, and this week’s second big development—the deployment to Israel of that American anti-missile battery—helps explain why. The deployment symbolizes with particular power the longstanding tendency of America’s Israel policy to create what economists call “moral hazard.” (Moral hazard=Lack of incentive to guard against risk where one is protected from its consequences.) The basic idea is that being shielded from the adverse consequences of your actions can encourage risky behavior.

Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute argued in Zeteo this week that Biden has over the last year repeatedly provided such shields for Israel. Whenever Netanyahu escalates the conflict—by, say, invading Lebanon or bombing Iran’s embassy compound in Syria or assassinating (relatively moderate) Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh on Iranian territory—Biden “rushes to defend Israel from the consequences of its own escalation,” Parsi writes. The result is to encourage more escalation.

Bear hug approach?

The Biden administration has argued that this “bear hug” approach allows US policymakers to influence, and sometimes restrain, Israel. But evidence for that argument is sparse.( Actually it’s non existent)

As Biden has continued to arm Israel and defend it on the world stage—and has helped it fend off two rounds of missile strikes from Iran—Netanyahu has opted to expand the war. Parsi writes: “Had Biden refrained from adding additional defensive capabilities to Israel after it needlessly intensified the conflict, the cost of escalation would have been higher for Israel—perhaps even prohibitive.”

Biden officials might argue that they pulled off a successful bear hug this week. Media reports suggest that agreeing to send the missile defense system to Israel, along with those 100 troops, played a role in getting Netanyahu to agree that in striking Iran he will avoid particularly sensitive targets, like nuclear facilities and oil refineries.
At least: Those targets won’t be hit this time around. But Netanyahu knows that Tehran will feel compelled to respond forcefully to any powerful Israeli strike, so he can assume there will be a next time. And, with US troops in Israel, he can then feel even more confident than he otherwise would that America will help him deal with blowback from a strike on Iran’s refineries or nuclear facilities. Moral hazard.

The US, Parsi argues, has strong incentives to change course. One is that Iranian missiles could kill US soldiers. If that happens, America could find itself drawn deeply into an intensifying and expanding war. (Of course, from Netanyahu’s perspective, direct American involvement is a feature, not a bug. And note that it could further heighten moral hazard.)

Netanyahu has wanted American troops and American involvement to target Iran for as long as I can recall.

Other main stream media outlets, see below, are stating quite openly that Netanyahu is not going to “take the win” He was never going to- He was always going to escalate and the US, despite it claims to the otherwise, will aid the escalation- I’ve no reason to this situation differently. Perhaps you do?

finally: U.S. hopes Hamas leader’s death will end Gaza war. Israel may have other ideas

WASHINGTON —

President Biden and his senior leadership hailed Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar as an “opportunity” to end the yearlong war that has devastated the Gaza Strip and killed thousands of Palestinians.

Speaking Friday in Germany, Biden said he telephoned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and told him the elimination of the radical “terror mastermind” Sinwar meant it was time to find peace.

Israel’s next steps will largely depend on Netanyahu’s own political calculations and those of his ultra-right coalition government, some members of which want to reoccupy Gaza and expel large numbers of Palestinians.

Sinwar’s death “gives Israel sort of the ladder to climb down from the total victory tree and say, ‘OK, we have won the war.’ We can … move toward a different reality on the ground in Gaza,” said Shira Efron, a former Rand Corp. fellow and Israel-based analyst with the Israel Policy Forum in Washington.

But it could also go the other way, she said. Netanyahu can conclude he is on a roll, Hamas is irreparably crippled, and “we should double down on fighting and continue this endless war.”

It is also difficult to predict Hamas’ next actions — defiant rhetoric aside. Much will depend on who succeeds Sinwar and what kind of game plan, if any, he left behind.

It became increasingly clear that Netanyahu and his government repeatedly ignored U.S. advice, or agreed to it but then didn’t follow through. This included entreaties to allow more food, water and medicine into a starving Gaza Strip and minimizing civilian casualties.

Bruce Hoffman, an insurgency expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Israel often disregarded U.S. military advice because “Israel was looking for a new status quo, not a return to the status quo ante … which I’m not sure was understood in Washington.”

I believe Washington understood this- If this geopolitical devotee, that’s me, understood this, Washington simply had too!

“The conventional wisdom is that Sinwar’s death is a potential off ramp for Netanyahu, but that assumes he wants one,” Khaled Elgindy, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington, said in an interview. “He just doesn’t have the same calculations and intentions” as the Americans. “Trying to align American rhetoric with Israeli action has led to total contradiction.”

Late Thursday, Israel released a video of Sinwar’s dying moments. He sat in an armchair in a destroyed building, covered in dust and debris, an arm apparently amputated by mortar fire. A drone moves in to observe him. He uses his last strength to shakily hurl a pole at the drone.

Israelis celebrated these images as a final humiliation to a man whom they saw as evil. But for Palestinians, the video sealed a kind of folk-hero status for the dying Hamas leader, who was seen as defiant to the end, fighting on the front lines.

The video that sealed Sinwar’s heroic status- Agree or disagree with the man and his actions. An individual, mortally wounded, at deaths door, still hurling a large stick at an IDF drone- speaks of a fearlessness that is rare. He was clearly prepared to die alongside other fighters in a way that western leaders are not. It’s usually young men who died in wars fighting for old men. But Sinwar was not a young man, he was an old man who could have been expected to direct battles from a bunker-

The media is presenting this as Israel vs Hezbollah in the same way it was Israel vs Hamas. This is actually, Israel attacking Lebanon as it was Israel attacking Gaza. When the media presents, with the intent to manage minds, the unwitting specifically believe – Israel against terrorists vs Israel attacking nation state or regions and their civilians.

The original headline was Can Israel pull off it’s attempt to cow Hezbollah? You can see this in the url

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/can-israel-pull-of-its-attempt-to-cow-hezbollah/

Israel has carried out its largest-scale operation against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon since the summer war of 2006. Wave after wave of Israeli aircraft struck at 1,600 targets across Lebanon yesterday with the aim of targeting Hezbollah weapons stores. Nearly 500 people were killed, according to figures issued by the Lebanese authorities. After nearly twelve months of controlled escalation on Israel’s northern border, we are now potentially on the cusp of all-out war.

Despite the severity of the Israeli (attacks, not really a) response in recent days, Hezbollah has yet to carry out the kind of action that would make all-out war an inevitability. Its target area is creeping southwards. On Sunday, its missiles struck at Kiryat Bialik, a town just north of Haifa. But despite its losses, the movement has not yet, for example, launched its precision-guided ordnance in a large-scale attack on Tel Aviv. Such a move would certainly result in all-out war.

Hezbollah and its patrons like the strategy of a long, drawn-out war of attrition against Israel, intended according to their theories to end in its implosion. Iran still doesn’t want to spend its 40 year investment in Hezbollah on protecting a junior client in Gaza. For this reason it is at present absorbing the losses, seeking neither to climb up, nor climb down the escalation ladder.

The immensely fragile remaining edifice of mutual deterrence is now teetering on the brink. It will hold until such time as Israel decides that only ground action can bring about its desired goal, or Hezbollah calculates that it has nothing left to lose from a broader response, which will itself make such a ground incursion inevitable. We will soon know.

At the very least it’s good to read the acknowledgment that Israeli is the aggressor. Vox is reporting that Lebanon is being attacked, opting at least in the piece, to not spin Israel vs Hezbollah.

Vox– The Israeli attacks in Lebanon could lead to the wider war we’ve been fearing

More than 450 people were killed and 1,500 injured in Israeli airstrikes targeting southern and eastern Lebanon, as well as the country’s capital, Beirut, on Monday. The airstrikes mark a significant and threatening escalation of hostilities following an apparent Israeli attack that used explosive pagers (and other electronic devices) to kill members of the Shia militant and political group Hezbollah, which is based in Lebanon.