Original url

http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2010/04/deadheading-polish-government-pt-2.html

Monday, April 12, 2010

Deadheading the Polish government Pt 2

As I wrote the first part of this post, I realized it was going to be much longer then anticipated and was going to require a second part.

The first post contained background, a ‘whose who’ on the dead, and the many political ties of Poland.
I will admit wholeheartedly I can’t rule out some kind of coup or mass assassination plot at this time.

One really never should. The number of important people on one plane, could have provided an opportunity to rid oneself of an impotent or uncooperative government in a cleaner manner then a military coup or colour revolution. Who really knows?

I did some reading on the plane. The Tupolev Tu-154. Most often described as aged and prone to accidents. However, I came across a number of articles, here and below, that indicated the plane had been completely refurbished, new engines etc.,

The plane carrying Kaczynski was refurbished and repaired last year, according to Alexei Gusev, general director of Aviakor Factory, the company that performed the service.

“Speaking openly, we believe that this tragedy could not have been caused by equipment failure,” he said.

So unless there was some kind of sabotage, equipment failure seems to be a dead end.

How about the Pilot?
By all accounts the Pilot was repeatedly informed to not land. Yet, he persisted in landing.

It has been reported the crew of the plane were infact offered three alternative aiports to land at, as a result of the dense fog conditions. They opted instead to continue the flight in order to assess the weather situation.

Two Belarussian airports – Minsk and Vitebsk – as well as Moscow Vnukovo were suggested to the pilots said Russia’s presidential plenipotentiary representative Georgy Poltavchenko

Poltavchenko, who was among the delegates waiting to receive the aircraft, states that he was informed that the weather conditions were “difficult”, with visibility below 400m – and possibly as low as 100-150m.

But he says the flight crew considered they had sufficient fuel to continue flying to the Smolensk terminal area, to “look around, and then decide”.

“Then we were told that they were going to land,” he says, adding that the Tu-154 was not heard approaching before there was the noise of an impact. He says the sounds were “strange” and “not typical” of a crash.

Air transport regulator Rosaviatsia’s chief, Alexander Neradko, told Putin during the briefing that visibility was below the minimum of 1,000m.

Neradko says the Tu-154 struck an 8m-tall tree at a distance of 1,200m from the runway. At this distance the tri-jet should have been at a height of 60m, he says, the standard for a 3° glideslope.

“The aircraft proceeded to strike more trees, broke up in mid-air, hit the ground and exploded,” he adds.

No indication has been given, during the briefing, on whether the crew attempted to abort the landing. Earlier information had suggested that the Tu-154 had been executing a go-around.Strange sounds, not typical of a crash? Is this important?

Another possibility for the Pilot ignoring the orders from the air traffic controllers lies in the Polish Presidents’ previous behaviour. He may have ordered the Pilot to make the landing despite the dicey conditions. So was the Pilot being pressured to make the landing?

Still, attention has been drawn to the pilot’s state of mind because of a previous incident involving the Polish president, Lech Kaczynski.In August 2008, during Russia’s brief war with Georgia, Mr. Kaczynski got into a dispute with a pilot flying his plane to the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, according to reports at the time. Mr. Kaczynski demanded that the pilot land despite dangerous conditions, but the pilot disagreed and diverted to neighboring Azerbaijan.

Mr. Kaczynski threatened that there would be consequences for the pilot, the Polish newspaper Dziennik reported. “If someone decides to become a pilot, he cannot be fearful,” Mr. Kaczynski said. “After returning to the country, we shall deal with this matter.”

Was this crash the result of Kaczynski’s demands?

There is no way of knowing what was going on in the plane, or in the pilots mind. Because, like all the others he died in the crash.

I feel it is important to mention that a push is on to quickly name a central banker replacement. Despite all the pomp and circumstance over the death of the President, the absolute importance of the countries central banker cannot be discounted, ever.

Poland Must Name Central Bank Head Immediately, Official Says

Much more important then a new President!
Poland must immediately replace central bank Governor Slawomir Skrzypek, who died in the April 10 plane crash.The economy and concern for the country’s finances require a quick decision and the authorities have started handling the matter.

Bronislaw Komorowski, who assumed Presidency said “we need quick decisions, because the governor calls meetings of the Monetary Policy Council, and that body oversees exchange rates, a role absolutely essential to the functioning of government.”

Seems so odd…this priority.

By all accounts the Russian government is going out of their way to cooperate, to investigate along with representatives from the Polish government.

I spent some time surfing around on the net. A lot of fingers are pointing at Russia and the Russian government surely must be aware of how this entire situation appears to the public and possibly to other heads of state.

At this point in time, I will say, nothing may be as it seems. Given Russia’s warming of relations as of late, the newest natural gas deal with Poland. I would hesitate, if this was some kind of coup attempt, to point my fingers at Russia.

https://web.archive.org/web/20101020035129/http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2010/04/deadheading-polish-government.html

Original url

http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2010/04/deadheading-polish-government.html

Saturday, April 10, 2010

Deadheading the Polish government

Deadheading, is the act of removing the spent heads of your flowers and encouraging new growth.

The recent plane crash effectively dead headed the Polish government. So like a plant, there will be new growth, in the form of a new government.
What will the new government bring? Who will benefit from the new government?

Let’s take a look at who was lost, their roles and their allegiances-
The who’s who of the deceased.

Lech Kaczynski, 60. Poland’s president, a nationalist conservative who had been in office since 2005. A founder of the Law and Justice party, now in opposition, and the twin brother of its leader, former Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

_ Maria Kaczynska, 66, Poland’s first lady; an economist and translator of English and French, had carried out charity work in her role as first lady. Her uncle was killed at Katyn.

_ Gen. Franciszek Gagor, 58. Army chief of staff since Feb. 2006. From 2004 to 2006, was Poland’s representative at NATO in Brussels.

_ Gen. Andrzej Blasik, 47, head of the Air Force since 2007. Received professional military education in Montgomery, Alabama, in 2005.

_ Vice Admiral Andrzej Karweta, 51, Navy chief commander since November 2009. From 2002-2005 served at the Supreme Allied Command Atlantic, SACLANT in Norfolk, Virginia.

_ Gen. Tadeusz Buk, 49, land forces commander since Sept. 2009. Served in 2007 as commander of Polish troops in Iraq.

_ Slawomir Skrzypek, 46, president of the National Bank of Poland since 2007. A longtime colleague of Lech Kaczynski, served under him at Warsaw City Hall from 2002-5.

_ Aleksander Szczyglo, 46, head of the National Security Office, a former defense minister under Kaczynski’s brother.From this list, we can see the President is gone, the President of the National Bank is gone,
the head of the Army, Navy, Airforce, National Security etc., all gone.

Deadheaded. All the top people gone.
Is this a real political loss in terms of Western interests?
In terms of the interests of Russia?

The Polish President was a noted friend of a number of nations, as they proclaim it.

He was an admirer of India, noted critic of China. He also had a soft corner for the Dalai Lama. He is also recognized as a friend to Israel.

Though Poland joined the European Union in 2004, Mr. Kaczynski often preferred dealing with the United States. Often times annoying other European Union members, which I find odd. Why bother at all joining the EU, if one is not going to play ball with the EU and plot strategy with the US.

One must consider that Poland was part and parcel of a different political agenda.
A political agenda which may have it’s roots in the west.
One has to consider that the so called labour revolution in Poland, led by that spunky electrician Lech Walesa, may not have really been initiated as a people movement.

The revolution may have grown through the labour movement, but, quite realistically could have been seeded and nurtured by interests outside of the labour movement and outside of Poland. Realistically this early revolution could not have come about without some serious backing from outside political interests. Realistically this revolution may have been the progenitor of the modern day colour revolutions that many have witnessed sweeping through the former Soviet States.

That said, back to Mr Kaczynski.
As soon as Mr. Kaczynski took office in the presidential headquarters in the center of Warsaw, he forged close relations with Ukraine and Georgia determined to bring them into the NATO fold
He lobbied hard for the United States to deploy part of its controversial shield against ballistic missiles in Poland, arguing that it would enhance Poland’s security against Russia.

All of his actions demonstrate him to be a pro-western leader. All of his allegiances are the friends of his friends, as they say. India, Israel, Ukraine and Georgia.

While these alliances made him popular with the West, he was most definitely unpopular in Poland. He was up for election and was expected to lose.
So his political value to his western supporters was over.

“This is a political earthquake, a lot of leaders have perished, and first we have to let this moment of shock pass. But the reality is that the Kaczynski’s [President Lech Kaczynski has an identical twin brother Jaroslaw] are not very popular in Poland,” said Piotr Kaczynski, an analyst at the Center for European Policy Studies.

The unflinching support for American missiles in Poland, the missiles hated by the masses, no doubt played a role in his lack of popularity in Poland and his inevitable election loss.

So, did the West lose an important ally in the plane crash? Or was he an ally whose usefulness was coming to an end?

Especially considering news of a recent long term natural gas agreement signed between Russian and Poland

Poland and Russia had made long term natural gas agreements. With all relevant documents to be signed shortly.

Putin told journalists after the talks on Wednesday that the relevant documents would be signed shortly.

At the same time, he stressed that gas cooperation had not been discussed as a separate issue at the talks. “The Polish side has long been raising the issue of increasing Russian gas supplies, and business entities have generally come to agreement,” Putin said, adding that the documents formalising this agreement would be signed shortly.

He was referring to a long-term contract for gas supplies up to 2037 and a transit agreement up to 2045.

Is there someone in place to sign these documents?

Where does this leave Poland? What about this agreement?
Was the US/West unhappy with this?
How about another recent move on the part of Russia, a move to patch up, to reconcile old grievances ?

‘ Putin made an unprecedented gesture of good will on this issue, becoming the first Russian leader ever to commemorate Stalin’s mass executions of Poles alongside a Polish leader. Prime Minister Tusk had flown in to Smolensk that day for the ceremony in the village of Katyn, where most of the 22,000 political murders were carried’

The Polish President believed that ties between Russia and Poland could not be normalized without reconciliation without achieving reconciliation over these crimes.

Poland is a pivotal nation in the struggle between the east and the west. Right now it is pretty tough to tell which interests have lost an important ally.I am sure the coming weeks and months will give us all an indication. It will be interesting to watch how the new growth, in the form of a new government, flowers in the coming weeks.

2026**** We understand that Poland was pivotal nation in the struggle between the US led NATO nations and Russia. All these years later I can understand how concerned the US would have been should Poland had become increasingly dependent on Russia oil. And the overture Putin has made to Poland regarding Smolensk was substantive. You”ll notice Donald Tusk was already on the scene?

You really have to make the commitment to read all 3 posts- to understand why I said Tusk and Sikorski are shady.. and why I was not surprised to see both those players involved in the most recent coup attempt

Fool me once, shame on you.. Fool me twice, shame on me

Via archive.ph

This non existent doctrine has been used to justify many things

Everywhere, you’ll find scholars, pundits, and policymakers talking about the threat the “Gerasimov doctrine” — named after Russia’s chief of the general staff — poses to the West. It’s a new way of war, “an expanded theory of modern warfare,” or even “a vision of total warfare.”

There’s one small problem. It doesn’t exist. And the longer we pretend it does, the longer we misunderstand the — real, but different — challenge Russia poses.

I feel I can say that because, to my immense chagrin, I created this term, which has since acquired a destructive life of its own, lumbering clumsily into the world to spread fear and loathing in its wake.

Back in February 2013, the Russian newspaper Military-Industrial Courier — as exciting and widely read as it sounds — reprinted a speech by Gen. Valery Gerasimov. It talks of how in the modern world, the use of propaganda and subversion means that “a perfectly thriving state can, in a matter of months and even days, be transformed into an arena of fierce armed conflict, become a victim of foreign intervention, and sink into a web of chaos, humanitarian catastrophe, and civil war.”

It largely passed unnoticed, but Robert Coalson of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, the U.S. government-funded TV and radio service broadcasting to Russia and other unfree countries, picked up on it and translated it. He sent it to me and, with his permission, I published the translation on my blog, with my own comments.

A blog is as much as anything else a vanity site; obviously I want people to read it. So for a snappy title, I coined the term “Gerasimov doctrine,” though even then I noted in the text that this term was nothing more than “a placeholder,” and “it certainly isn’t a doctrine.” I didn’t think people would genuinely believe either that he came up with it (Gerasimov is a tough and effective chief of the general staff, but no theoretician), less yet than it was a “programmatic” blueprint for war on the West.

But then came the annexation of Crimea, when “little green men” — commandos without insignia — seized the peninsula with scarcely a shot fired. This was followed by the Donbass war, fought initially by a motley collection of local thugs, separatists, Russian adventurers, and special forces, accompanied by a barrage of lurid Russian propaganda.
Suddenly, it seemed that Gerasimov had indeed been describing what was to come, had we but realized it. Prone, as ever, to overcompensation, Western mainstream opinion swung from ignoring Gerasimov’s pronouncements to enshrining them as some kind of bleeding-edge blueprint for a new way of war.

The problems with this formulation are numerous, though. Gerasimov was actually talking about how the Kremlin understands what happened in the “Arab Spring” uprisings, the “color revolutions” against pro-Moscow regimes in Russia’s neighborhood, and in due course Ukraine’s “Maidan” revolt.

The Russians honestly — however wrongly (???)— believe that these were not genuine protests against brutal and corrupt governments, but regime changes orchestrated in Washington, (They were regime change operations) or rather, Langley. This wasn’t a “doctrine” as the Russians understand it, for future adventures abroad: Gerasimov was trying to work out how to fight, not promote, such uprisings at home.

But is this just a case of a pedantic scholar splitting hairs? There is no denying that the West is facing a multivectored, multi-agency campaign of subversion, division, and covert political “active measures” by Russia. Does it matter what we call it? Isn’t that “placeholder” term as good as anything else?

But words have weight; they frame our understanding of that campaign, of how it works, and what it does. Without being aware of it, clinging to this inaccurate moniker also limits and misdirects us in our attempt to grasp and thus combat it.

First of all, there is no single Russian “doctrine.” If anything, their campaign is dangerous precisely because it has no single organizing principle, let alone controlling agency. There is a broad political objective — to distract, divide, and demoralize — but otherwise it is largely opportunistic, fragmented, even sometimes contradictory. Some major operations are coordinated, largely through the presidential administration, but most are not.

Rather, operations are conceived and generally carried out by a bewildering array of “political entrepreneurs” hoping that their success will win them the Kremlin’s favor: diplomats and spies, criminals and think-tankers, oligarchs and journalists.

Secondly, we should not be thinking of this primarily in military terms. What we call “hybrid war” in Russian thinking is actually two separate things. What Gerasimov was talking about was the use of subversion to prepare the battlefield before intervention, precisely the kind of operations used in Ukraine. Breaking the chain of command, stirring up local insurrections, jamming communications — these are all classic moves that hardly began in Crimea.

However, if Gerasimov and the generals think of “active measures” as a prelude to armed operations, the Kremlin’s national security specialists also regard them as an alternative. The Russians may get much wrong, but they are aware that NATO is a formidable enemy, and the odds are that its Article 5 guarantee of mutual defense would hold. In effect, NATO member countries are out of bounds for direct military action. How can a country with an economy perhaps the size of Canada’s, an army that is still going through an expensive modernization and already bogged down in two wars, and precious little soft power compete with a larger, richer coalition of democracies?

The answer is precisely by turning its democratic norms and institutions against itself, by opening existing fault lines, and by taking every opportunity to neutralize the West. This is a textbook case of what George Kennan called political war: “the employment of all the means at a nation’s command, short of war, to achieve its national objectives. Such operations are both overt and covert. They range from such overt actions as political alliances, economic measures … and ‘white’ propaganda to such covert operations as clandestine support of ‘friendly’ foreign elements, ‘black’ psychological warfare and even encouragement of underground resistance in hostile states.”

The point is this: If the subversion is not the prelude to war, but the war itself, this changes our understanding of the threat, and therefore our best responses. Maintaining serious armed forces as a deterrent is still necessary, but perhaps more emphasis ought to go on counterintelligence and media literacy, on fighting corruption (always a boon for the political warriors) and healing the social divisions the Russians gleefully exploit.

Of course, the Gerasimov doctrine is an exciting term, and the man himself an unsmiling and craggy bruiser, an appealing frontman for those eager to portray Russia as a land of thugs and bullies. But by implying a military-led campaign and one with coherence and tight command, it also leads us to misunderstand the threat and miscalculate the response.

It also means we fail to appreciate how U.S. actions look to the Kremlin ( acknowledging destabilization tactics) and the extent to which they have inadvertently contributed to President Vladimir Putin’s grand narrative of a Russia under threat from an insidious West. He is largely wrong, but not entirely so. (Putin is not entirely wrong, which means he is largely correct) Either way, if we also want to try to end the current confrontation, as well as fight off Russia’s political war, we need to understand the motivations behind it.
The “Gerasimov doctrine” was never meant to mean anything, and it doesn’t. It’s time to move past it.

Give this interview a listen- I write about perception management all the time.. For a reason

It’s a coup attempt- CTV won’t say it. I will

Poland’s President Karol Nawrocki called off a visit to Africa in mid-flight as riot police deployed around the country’s constitutional court Friday following the suspension of its chief justice in a battle between the centrist government and the nationalist right.

Dozens of police guarded the entrance to the court as followers of the opposition right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) protested the ousting of constitutional court president Bogdan Swieczkowski.

The court’s official X social media account said there had been a “coup d’etat” and some demonstrators chanted “Tusk traitor” as they condemned the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Some said prayers while holding Roman Catholic rosaries and religious images. Police said they had arrested three people who had tried to enter the court complex.

Tusk’s government has been trying for weeks to force out the court’s judges, who were appointed by the previous PiS government that ruled from 2015 to 2023.

The court frequently ruled in favour of Polish legislation over European Union law and the EU accused Poland’s highest court of being too close to the nationalist political power of the time.

Mid-flight chaos

Tusk vowed to end the dispute with Brussels after winning an election in 2023. But the country’s president, a right wing independent, has blocked his nominations to the court.

Former PiS prime minister Jaroslaw Kaczysnki addressed the demonstration and called for Nawrocki to act. The president said he had called off an official trip to Senegal in mid-flight and ordered it back to Warsaw. He was to go to the court from the airport, media reports said.

The suspension of Swieczkowski was announced by another judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska who said the move was needed to restore the rule of law.

Justice Minister Waldemar Zurek, who is also the attorney general, told journalists he had requested the lifting of the legal immunity of Swieczkowski and his deputy Bartlomiej Sochanski.

“This court has become private property; we must restore its proper functioning,” he added.

Tusk justified the action in a comment on the X platform.

Tusk cannot be trusted to be anything but a servant to the EU/US.

I will not allow the right wing to take us out of the European Union. That’s what the game is about today.

Nie pozwolę, by prawica wyprowadziła nas z Unii Europejskiej. O to dziś toczy się gra. https://t.co/jLHXvRscYm— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) October 29, 2026

Restoring the rule of law is our duty,” he said.

“After years of PiS-led lawlessness, this is a difficult process, sometimes painful, and it requires decisive action. There is no other way.”

The constitutional court’s official website was not accessible on Friday evening.

Its X account said there had been a “coup d’etat” and that Swieczkowski remained in office.

Once you have the background and understand the patterns it becomes easier to discern.

The New Atlas

Especially important after the US puppet in Russia, Boris Yeltsin, fell from power. We can see the European screen still covering for the US dominance that is still at work today.

The dominance by the US of the EU is what contributes to it’s general dysfunction and leaves it’s citizens alienated from a leadership that does NOT serve Europe’s own.

Nothing has changed from what I can see.

Therefore we’re going down the forgotten history lane. As we did yesterday, remembering the Gene Sharp information- hope you all read it? Maybe it was new information to some of you? I don’t know.

For today let’s look back to the American policy that preceded the creation of the EU

President George H.W. Bush had ‘the vision thing’ in spades

President George H.W. Bush ascended to the presidency with a reputation for experience, judgement, integrity, and a steady hand. However, the looming question was whether he could inspire people with, in his own words, “the vision thing.”

That quotation, first reported by Robert Ajemian in a Time feature in 1987, dogged George H.W. Bush throughout his presidency. Yet, President George H.W. Bush – more than any post-Cold War president – successfully articulated a vision of a “Europe whole and free” that became an historically successful strategy guiding US policy for the subsequent twenty-five years. Indeed, his words, first spoken when I was a high school student gripped by the possibilities of the end of the Cold War, have inspired my own career for the past three decades.

On May 31, 1989, President H.W. Bush – speaking in Mainz to the citizens of a then still divided Germany – set out his vision for American leadership in support of a united Europe built on the foundation of lasting security and shared values of democracy, freedom, and prosperity.

He said, “For forty years, the seeds of democracy in Eastern Europe lay dormant, buried under the frozen tundra of the Cold War. And for forty years, the world has waited for the Cold War to end. And decade after decade, time after time, the flowering human spirit withered from the chill of conflict and oppression; and again, the world waited. But the passion for freedom cannot be denied forever. The world has waited long enough. The time is right. Let Europe be whole and free.”

Only four months into his presidency, he delivered remarks that shaped not only his administration’s strategy, but became an American bipartisan grand strategy for the coming decades. These remarks were an audacious challenge to those living behind the Iron Curtain and set a high bar for America’s aims in Europe – words all the more notable coming from a famously cautious US president.

The story of a Europe whole and free began as a united Germany, the restoration of the nations of the Central and Eastern Europe, the independence of Russian and other nationalities from Soviet communism. “Europe whole and free” at first embodied the hopeful future of the continent no longer divided by the Iron Curtain with half beholden to totalitarianism. Yet, soon, dramatic political and security shifts on the ground forced Washington and Brussels to define a set of policies toward Western Europe’s post-Communist, eastern neighbors.

President Bush drew on a common transatlantic grand strategy from much earlier, making it relevant for the dawn of the end of the Cold War. The United States fought World War II not only to defeat the Nazi menace, but to help Europe emerge from war in a way that would never force the United States to fight again in Europe. After forty-five years of Cold War, President Bush forged a bipartisan US policy to fulfill our original aims of 1945.

Give a listen to George H W Bush’s speech- You will understand he is talking about the creation of the EU

original url below- not accessible thanks to heavy handed internet censorship

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2020/10/un-registers-turkeylibyan-maritime-deal.html

Link to the original news story- still viable thankfully

UN Registers Turkey- Libya Maritime Deal

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday registered a Turkey-Libya deal on the delimitation of maritime jurisdiction areas in the Mediterranean.

The agreement “has been registered with the Secretariat, in accordance with Article 102 of the Charter of the United Nations,” said the certificate of registration dated Wednesday.

“Every treaty and every international agreement entered into by any Member of the United Nations after the present Charter comes into force shall as soon as possible be registered with the Secretariat and published by it,” reads Article 102.

The pact with Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) was signed Nov. 27, 2019 and passed by Turkey’s parliament Dec. 5.

It took effect Dec. 8 after the two countries published it in their respective official gazettes.

It is NOT a new agreement. Despite the latest media presentation.

Ankara applied to the UN to register the pact Dec. 12.

The memorandum setting marine jurisdictions rejects unilateral and illegal activities by other regional countries and international firms and aims to protect the rights of both countries.

Keep in mind which nation is in charge of the UN?

I asked in 2020. Who runs the UN? – https://www.un.org/en/sections/un-charter/index.html
Article 110

The present Charter shall be ratified by the signatory states in accordance with their respective constitutional processes.

The ratifications shall be deposited with the Government of the United States of America, which shall notify all the signatory states of each deposit as well as the Secretary-General of the Organization when he has been appointed.

Kind of makes you think….

Presently.. and I should add, as expected!

Why as expected? Because this agreement was never going to be accepted by Greece, Israel, Cyprus, the EU or the US. It does not fit into the remake the region plan of Usrael.

And of course Israel is not happy

Turkey’s maritime corridor in Libya threatens Israel’s Mediterranean shipping

The IDF Intelligence Directorate has begun focusing on the “Libya corridor” and Turkey’s growing military and diplomatic influence in the region, based on a maritime economic agreement signed in 2019 between the Turkish government and Libya’s politically and militarily divided government, and has expanded over the past two years.

I’m going to move a 2 piece post covering this specific agreement and other issues surrounding it from my former site. Those two posts will definitely give readers here a better understanding of the political machinations in this geographical area. Stay tuned

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Libya’s approval of the 2019 maritime boundary memorandum:

Some react because they feel they have to react. Others genuinely have strategic problems with this issue.

But both legally and politically, this is an entirely legitimate agreement. There is no need to debate it.

In fact, according to our lawyers, the agreement signed in 2019 was technically already in force. What parliament did was an act of acceptance, not ratification.

Our goal, as everywhere else, is to bring stability, peace, tranquility and happiness to the Mediterranean.

Our diplomacy has no other objective.— Clash Report (@clashreport) October 21, 2026

It is, IMO, a legit agreement.

European diplomats attacked by Israeli settlers amid rising violence in occupied West Bank

Masked Israeli settlers attacked a group of European diplomats on Saturday during a visit to the occupied West Bank on Saturday, Belgium’s foreign minister Maxime Prevot said.

The attackers targeted Belgium’s consul general, French and Polish diplomats and Catholic representatives in the village of Taybeh, 5 kilometres northeast of Jerusalem, according to Prevot.

“A French mayor was assaulted and a Belgian vehicle damaged. Our team is safe,” Prevot said.

He blamed what he called Israel’s “illegal settlement policy” for the attack and pledged to push for further European Union sanctions.

Sanctions? Israel has and continues to commit genocide. The situation has moved well past the sanctions stage.

Israeli settlers attack US photographer covering West Bank violence

Israeli settlers attack European diplomats, beat French mayor

Jerusalem (AFP) – Israeli settlers on Saturday attacked a convoy of European diplomats in the West Bank and beat up a visiting French mayor, witnesses said, a day after an American photographer was similarly set upon as violence escalates ahead of bitterly fought elections.

Netanyahu claims “no compelling evidence of the attack”

Of course.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed on Saturday night there was a lack of “compelling evidence” surrounding a violent settler attack on European diplomats in the West Bank earlier in the day, appearing to suggest the incident was part of a “coordinated smear campaign.”

There are photographs of the assault-

Image included with this article

Read below

DW

Where will diesel prices go from here?

Prolonged fighting in the Middle East or Russia could add to the problems for Europe and other diesel users. US export restrictions could make this situation even worse.

US diesel exports to Europe are up around 37% since last year and now account for about 8% of European demand, says York. This makes the country an important alternative to diesel from Russia and the Persian Gulf.

If the US blocks exports, it would be a big shock and mean even higher diesel prices, said Zachmann. The question is whether the EU would retaliate and export less gasoline to the US “making both sides worse off” by pushing up both US gasoline prices and EU diesel prices.

Additionally, winter is just around the corner for the Northern Hemisphere. Refineries may struggle to meet demand for both heating oil and diesel, further tightening supplies.

A wave of refinery closures in Europe and the US since 2019 has made the diesel market vulnerable, said York, and this has hit the buffer of spare refining capacity that used to absorb shocks.

“Essentially, the market has fewer ‘extra barrels’ standing by,” he underscored. “So, the loss of any barrel hits supply much more directly than it used to.”

Europe is especially vulnerable to diesel shocks

For Europe, more expensive diesel could have dramatic consequences.

“Decades of policy incentives, such as tax advantages, left Europe’s vehicle fleet far more diesel-heavy than regions like the US,” said Georg Zachmann, a senior fellow at Brussels-based Bruegel think tank.

“As a result, the EU is structurally long on gasoline, which it exports, and short on diesel, which it must import,” added Zachmann, who specializes in energy and climate policies.

Check the link to DW for an interesting graph that shows the increase in diesel prices so far.

In the EU, just over 38% of passenger cars are diesel and road transport, including freight, makes up 77% of total diesel and gas oil consumption, according to a briefing published by Transport & Environment, a Brussels-based advocacy group.

This reliance on diesel-powered transport “leaves drivers and businesses particularly exposed to oil and fuel price shocks,” wrote Juliette Egal, the briefing’s lead author.

The NGO calculated that EU drivers are paying €30 more for a 50-liter tank of diesel on average since the start of the war in Iran. An average German long-haul truck driver is paying an extra €236 a week.

Increased fuel costs for EU road transport add up to €270 million a day — of that, €203 million is for diesel, according to the briefing. Overall, the EU economy has seen additional costs of €40 billion from road diesel since the beginning of the war. 

Why are diesel prices climbing faster than oil?

In the near term, Russia’s crude oil processing volumes are the single fastest-moving lever, said Skip York, a nonresident fellow at Rice University’s Center for Energy Studies in Houston, Texas.

“Each new wave of Ukrainian strikes shows up in diesel prices within days, unlike Hormuz, which has been running at a depressed but relatively stable flow rate for months,” he added. 

Now refinery disruptions matter most, he said, because “both the Ukraine drone campaign and the Hormuz conflict are knocking out working refining capacity faster than anyone can replace it.” 

Still, the Strait of Hormuz “is the bigger structural risk” for diesel prices in the long term.

Globally, refinery capacity has “dropped substantially, and diesel is particularly affected,” agreed Zachmann.

Where will diesel prices go from here?

Prolonged fighting in the Middle East or Russia could add to the problems for Europe and other diesel users. US export restrictions could make this situation even worse.

US diesel exports to Europe are up around 37% since last year and now account for about 8% of European demand, says York. This makes the country an important alternative to diesel from Russia and the Persian Gulf.

If the US blocks exports, it would be a big shock and mean even higher diesel prices, said Zachmann. The question is whether the EU would retaliate and export less gasoline to the US "making both sides worse off" by pushing up both US gasoline prices and EU diesel prices.

Additionally, winter is just around the corner for the Northern Hemisphere. Refineries may struggle to meet demand for both heating oil and diesel, further tightening supplies.

A wave of refinery closures in Europe and the US since 2019 has made the diesel market vulnerable, said York, and this has hit the buffer of spare refining capacity that used to absorb shocks.

“Essentially, the market has fewer ‘extra barrels’ standing by,” he underscored. “So, the loss of any barrel hits supply much more directly than it used to.”

So, the Usrael attack on Iran is the biggest driver in increased diesel prices. Yes, there are other factors, but, the Straits of Hormuz being closed is the biggest driver in price increases. And inflation.

Judge Napolitano Interviews Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov – Part One

Judge Napolitano Interviews Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov – Part Two

Mr Lavrov is pretty much my most favoured diplomat.. So, in my view, these are absolutely worth listening to!