I’m going to be blunt- The news about the most recent situation in Syria is best characterized as hyperventilating hyperbole especially on social media. It’s mind numbing, truly. So, my intention for this report is the same as always. Less dramatics, more rational.
Like Lavrov in his recent interview

Pretty sure I’ve been clear with readers here that Syria is a nuanced situation with having many shades of grey and many parties pursuing their own interests. I noticed Lavrov being exasperated in the interview with Tucker Carlson and that same feeling of exasperation is felt by myself when Syria is broached.

I’m going to start out by clearly stating that each nation has a right to a secure border. Russia is entitled to secure border. Canada and the US are entitled to a secure border. The very idea that it is okay for some nations to have massive destabilizing forces on their border, because they are unfavoured doesn’t fly. So yes Russia can and should have stability on it’s border. And it has not since Maidan. Turkey should have stability on their border and they have not since the first violent protests broke out in Syria’s Daara in 2011- And 3 to 3.5 million Syrians fled to Turkey. And Syria was entitled to stability as well, but, they’ve not been able to have it because of Israel, largely. As Israel continues to occupy Golan and has bombed Syria for as long as I can recall! Including an alleged nuclear power plant in Syria, in 2007

Two spectrums represented in the recent rebellion

Valdaiclub- Borderless manipulated terrorism in Syria

Apparently, various groups were present in the recent rebellion, which can be divided into two general spectrums.

The first one is the internal (Syrian) dissidents, including the Free Syrian Army, who have chosen armed action for various reasons to share power. The goal of this group is national and they are ready to compromise with the central government under certain conditions.

However, the second spectrum, whose core is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (considered a terrorist organisation in Iran, Russia, the US, the EU and many other countries), consists of radical (non-Syrian) forces that pursue transnational terrorist goals.

Although Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has tried to distance itself from ISIS-like clothing and behaviour by rebranding and changing its appearance to that of a guerrilla force, its terrorist nature cannot be denied. Radicals and terrorists continue to be active within this group. The important thing is that on the sidelines of the riots and instability caused by Tahrir al-Sham, other terrorist forces will also have the opportunity to become active.

Oddly enough CNN chose to interview the head of HTS- Al Golani.

Abu Mohammed al-Golani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaida affiliate, said in an interview Friday that his goal is to topple the regime of Bashar al-Assa

You think it’s a coincidence his name de guerre is Al Golani? It’s not.

Starting the saga

The first report I’d ever written on Syria was March 24 of 2011. So more than 13 years ago.

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2011/03/western-backed-social-media-revolution.html?zx=eccd30e49876a470

A statement posted Thursday on the Facebook page “The Syrian Revolution 2011” held Syrian authorities led by President Bashar Assad responsible for the violence and called on the Syrian people to hold protests in all Syrian provinces on Friday, which it dubbed “Dignity Friday.”

Videos posted by activists on Youtube and Twitter showed dead and wounded people lying on a street in Derra, as heavy gunfire crackled nearby and people shouted in panic.

So let’s take a look at the geography of Derra-

Deraa is a border town, located right next to Jordan. Conveniently, it is also located very near to the Golan Heights, which are presently occupied by Israel.

Not to mention that Deraa is not far from Israel itself.

What is that saying in real estate? Location, location, location.
Located 120km (75 miles) south of Damascus, just a few miles from the Jordanian border, it has long been Syria’s gateway to the south.

"It has long been Syria's gateway to the South"

Which also means, it is the gateway in from the other direction. From the South (Jordan, Golan Heights, Israel) into the North.

Deraa is a city that the Syrian government simply cannot afford to lose. It is the main city of the historic Hawran region, which includes the provinces of Deraa, Sweida and Kuneitra - the last of which is partly occupied by Israel.

As Aangirfan said at the time

AnonymousMarch 24, 2011 at 11:26 AM

Well done. You seem to be the first person to have noticed what is going on in Syria.

Aangirfan

That is when and where it all began.
We’ve nearly come full circle. But it ain’t over till the fat lady sings, as the saying goes. From Derra the violent protest spread and the US jumped to action, immediately- And wow, the spin, lies, perception management came fast and furious

Shortly after reporting the above news there were reports of Americans being arrested in Syria, Americans who had just come from Egypt of all places- Where that government had just been overthrown.

The Syrian destabilization carried on and on and it expanded engulfing the entire nation. Oh and the psyops were over the top- we had the so called gay/lesbian blogger who was allegedly being persecuted, but, turned out to be a man in the UK. I’m serious!

From my censored site

Have we all heard the one about the Syrian lesbian blogger who was treated very, very badly in Syria?? Well if you did and were outraged. You have been suckered! It was a hoax. A psyop. A perception management operation pulled on you!!
Created by an American Student at a British University

Here’s the link to the Telegraph story of the day:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8572435/Man-behind-A-Gay-Girl-in-Damascus-blog-defends-hoax.html

You can read the article at the link below
Man Behind A Gay Girl in Damascus blog defends the hoax via Archive.ph

Anyway- memory lane walk done for now- Hoping you all understand much of the news out of Syria is exaggerated, fabricated and intended to manage our perception. That explains why I have opted for a more careful, cautious less sensationalized analysis.

Psyop rerun

Speaking of psyops, it should not come as a surprise that the UK government is again throwing more money at the White Helmets- Yup, announced today.

New funding for White Helmets in Syria in response to escalation

UK announces new funding to support White Helmets’ response to the current escalations in Syria

Today, I am announcing an additional £300,000 to support the White Helmets at this critical time. This funding will help the White Helmets meet the humanitarian challenges arising from the ongoing escalation.

This has been an op that has run for some time- The UK backs the fighters and then they fund the alleged saviours- It’s sick, but, there it is. It’s Perfidious Albion

Where were the White Helmets in Gaza? Lots of humanitarian challenges presented and yet no funding from the UK.

Lavrov Says Moscow Has Evidence of Backers Behind Syrian armed Offensive

In a televised interview, Lavrov responded to questions about the sponsors of factions that recently seized control of Aleppo and Hama. “We have information about this and wish to discuss it with all our partners in this process, focusing on how to cut off their funding and arms supplies,” Lavrov said.

He added, “Publicly available information points, in particular, to the US, the British, and some other parties. Some suggest Israel has an interest in escalating the situation to divert attention from Gaza.”

Lavrov described the situation as “a complex game involving many actors.”

Turkey freezes assets of late Islamic militant leader linked to HTS

Turkey has frozen the assets of Maysar Ali Musa Abdullah al-Juburi, also known as Abu Maria al-Qahtani, a senior leader of the Islamist militant group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) who was killed in Syria in April, the ANKA news agency reported on Friday.

Turkey’s asset freeze list, updated to include the HTS leader in line with United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions targeting individuals, entities or organizations linked to terrorism, was published in the Official Gazette on Friday.

Astana

Iran, Türkiye agree not only on Syria, but on many other regional issues

Tehran, IRNA – Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in an interview with Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed newspaper, said that Iran and Turkiye agree not only on Syria, but also on many other region issues and beyond, and it is natural to have differences of opinion.

“The two countries discuss two types of situations, where we have a consensus, we cooperate. Where we have a difference of opinion, we try to find a solution through dialogue, or if we don’t have a solution, we finally understand each other well to avoid misunderstandings,” Araghchi said.

Of course the US backed Kurds/PKK/YPG are grabbing more territory for themselves

Syria’s US-backed Kurdish forces seize Deir ez-Zor as Assad hangs by thread

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces confirmed on Friday that its forces had entered the city of Deir ez-Zor, administered by the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Albu Kamal border crossing with Iraq — used by Iran-backed Shiite militias funneling men and weapons to their units in Syria — also fell under its control. The US-backed umbrella group said in a statement Friday that the Deir ez-Zor Military Council, staffed by mainly Arab forces, had moved into the city and into other areas lying on the western banks of the Euphrates River in order to protect its people from Turkish-backed Sunni militants who have been at war against the SDF as well as from the Islamic State.

The US backed Kurds appear to be preventing Iran’s ability to aid Syria

BBC

On 23 June 1985, an Air India flight travelling from Canada to India via London, exploded off the Irish coast, killing all 329 people on board. The cause was a bomb in a suitcase that was transferred to the flight even though the ticket holder had not boarded. The victims included 268 Canadian citizens, mostly of Indian origin, and 24 Indians. Only 131 bodies were retrieved from the sea.

While the flight was still in the air, another explosion at Tokyo’s Narita airport killed two Japanese baggage handlers. Investigators later said that this bomb was linked to the attack on Flight 182 and intended for another Air India flight to Bangkok but it exploded prematurely.

Of course you could say it was just a tragic mistake, but, it wasn’t. One has to wonder if the bombing took place off the coast of Ireland as symbolic ? Given the toxic history between England and Ireland? Keeping in mind the PM of Canada at the time was “when Irish eyes are smiling“, Brian Mulroney.

Anyway, curiosities aside.

Canadian Government response

Canadian police believed that one of the suspects, Talwinder Singh Parmar, the Vancouver-based founder of the Babbar Khalsa terrorist group had masterminded the attack, but charges against him were ultimately dropped. He was later killed by police in India. Two suspects who were put on trial, Ripudaman Singh Malik and Ajaib Singh Bagri, were alleged to be involved with a Sikh separatist movement fighting for an independent Khalistan, or the Sikh homeland, in India.

As mentioned in my previous post CSIS dropped the ball, completely, and in my opinion intentionally.

The inquiry, read cover up, was launched by PM Stephen Harper

On May 1, 2006, (the Conservative) Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced the launch of an inquiry into the investigation of the Flight 182 bombing, by retired Supreme Court Justice John C. Major. The Commission of Inquiry into the Investigation of the Bombing of Air India Flight 182 submitted its final, 5-volume report.

The inquiry concluded that the bombing was “a Canadian Tragedy” and “the largest mass murder in Canadian history” with recommendations to make amends to victims’ families for the poor treatment they received in the tragedy’s aftermath.

Obviously it was a tragedy, and a Canadian one, and yes it was the largest mass murder in Canadian history. Token amends were made and the whole incident was swept away.

That relationship between Khalistani terrorist/separatists has continued to this day- And the PM Justin Trudeau (Liberal) is leading the 5 eyes campaign to target India.

Separatists admit to being in touch with persons in the Trudeau government

Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, the general counsel of the secessionist group Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) and a designated terrorist in India, has admitted to communicating with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s office over the past several years. Speaking to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), Pannun acknowledged that the SFJ had been in contact with Trudeau’s office

He’s making claims of Indian espionage, but, wouldn’t he have a political agenda to do that? Of course he would!

As mentioned in my previous report the separatist issue is a non issue in India- However the 5 eyes are the big player in targeting India

UK joins US and Australia in backing Canada over India assassination row

All Five-Eyes alliance members have come out in support of Canada urging India to cooperate

This is political pressure being applies to India by the 5 eyes nations.

“We are in contact with our Canadian partners about the serious developments outlined in the independent investigations in Canada. The UK has full confidence in Canada’s judicial system,” the British government said in a statement.

London was the last member of the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing alliance to put its weight behind Canada. The alliance, whose primary goal is to enhance security of its member countries by sharing intelligence, is made up of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US.

The US State Department appeared critical of India’s stance on the allegations and said New Delhi has not taken the allegations seriously.

“We have made clear that the allegations are extremely serious and they need to be taken seriously, and we wanted to see the government of India cooperate with Canada in its investigation. Obviously, they have not chosen that path,” spokesperson Mathew Miller said in a regular briefing on Tuesday.

The relationship between India and Canada has hit rock bottom in recent years. Canada has accused Indian government proxies of targeting its Sikh citizens while India has repeatedly raised the issue of Ottawa giving space to the Khalistan movement that demands a separate homeland for Sikhs within India.

“The concerns have exacerbated where some 2 per cent of the population is Sikh“

As explained in my previous post the separatist issue in India is dead in the water- India has become more prosperous and there’s just no political support for this movement. But as a destabilization tactic, from outsiders, using a proxy, this is the same divide to conquer strategy that the British Empire was so well known for- Perfidious Albion– Adapted by the 5 eyes nations, born out of and rebranded after the collapse of the British Empire

England or Britain considered as treacherous in international affairs, in a rendering of the French phrase la perfide Albion, said to have been first used by the Marquis de Ximenès (1726–1817).

Although Canada’s role in the Empire has become more obvious- or should be obvious? Still too many Canadians are blissfully unaware of the role Canada plays in empire- Probably because it is well obscured by the ever obfuscating media.

Empire- an extensive group of states or countries under a single supreme authority

Archive.ph original article from the Economist

WHEN INDIA gained independence from Britain in 1947, few outside the country believed that a union of such diverse states could hold together. India has survived—but not without threats to its unity. One of the most enduring has been the Khalistan movement, which seeks to establish an independent homeland for Sikhs. On September 18th Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, alleged that Indian government agents were behind the killing, in June, of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian Sikh leader who supported independence for Khalistan. India’s government, which denies any involvement, has accused Canada of harbouring “terrorists and separatists”. How serious is the Khalistan movement?

The origins of Khalistan lie in Sikhism, a religion practised by 23m people in India and 3m more around the world. The faith emerged in the 15th century in Punjab, a region in northern India, then ruled by the Mughals. In 1699, frustrated by life under Muslim rule and corruption among Sikh priests, Guru Gobind Singh, the faith’s leader, reformed the religion. The khalsa (or pure) tradition he initiated radically changed the way Sikhism was practised and organised. It also came with a political vision: to ensure Sikh rule in Punjab.

At independence, some Sikhs tried to realise that vision by carving out a separate country. But the group was small (in the 1941 census, Sikhs accounted for 15%of the Punjab province in British India). The British partitioned Punjab between India and Pakistan. Most Sikhs living on the Pakistani side chose to move to India.

The Sikhs opted to live in India rather than Pakistan.

The dream of Khalistan survived. In the late 1970s and early 1980s the movement re-emerged, fuelled by growing Sikh diasporas in places like Britain and Canada.

In 1980 Jagjit Singh Chauhan, a doctor in London, declared himself president of the “Republic of Khalistan”.

Undoubtedly he had lots of British intelligence footing to stand on to make that type of declaration.

Violence by Khalistani militants surged. In 1985 Khalistani terrorists planted a bomb on an Air India flight between Montreal and London, killing 329 people, most of them Canadians.

One does wonder if any intelligence agencies had their hands in this bombing that killed so many Canadians- British, American or Canadian?

Gee why would CSIS do that? Any chance they were covering for intelligence proxies?

Back to the Economist article

Eventually, though, the movement lost steam in India—partly owing to a government crackdown and economic growth. Many Sikhs still consider Bhindranwale a martyr, but few try to emulate him and those who do are quickly stopped. The only remaining party that advocates Khalistani independence secured less than 3% of the vote in the latest state election.

So where is this separatist movement being instigated from?

I’m going to repeat that and point out clearly that the 5 eyes nations (excluding New Zealand) are at the heart of this separatist movement

It is not a coincidence that the 5 eyes nations, including Canada, are feeding a separatist movement to change the politics of another nation. It’s the business of empire. It’s also state sponsored terrorism, defined in Canada as “the unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims.”

This incident caught my attention immediately for many reasons- Not the least of which is the amazing number of “coincidences” involved. Now, I’m not a coincidence theorist by nature. Yes, there are coincidences, but, not so many that it becomes completely absurd and impossibly improbable

When I first posted info on this topic, Mark said “Lynch seems the type of person who had ‘dirt’ on powerful people in the intelligence community.” Mark was correct. Based on the information from media sources he would have had intelligence on people AND nations.

Here’s another report- This time from CTV

I’m going to bold the points of interest.

ROME, Italy –

Specialist divers surveying the wreckage of the US$40 million superyacht that sank off Sicily in August, killing seven people including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch, have asked for heightened security to guard the vessel, over concerns that sensitive data locked in its safes may interest foreign governments, multiple sources told CNN.

The specialist divers are Italy’s own super secretive, special forces divers. And they’ve asked for heightened security to guard the vessel to keep this sensitive data away from other interested parties

Italian Prosecutors who have opened up a criminal probe into multiple charges of manslaughter and negligent shipwreck think the 56-metre (184-foot) yacht, the Bayesian, may contain highly sensitive data tied to a number of Western intelligence services, four sources familiar with the investigation and salvage operation said.

Lynch was associated with British, American and other intelligence services through his various companies, including the cyber security company he founded, Darktrace.

Israeli ties had been previously mentioned

That company was sold to Chicago-based private equity firm Thoma Bravo in April. Lynch, whose wife’s company Revtom Limited owned the vessel, was also an adviser to British prime ministers David Cameron and Theresa May on science, technology and cyber security during their tenures, according to British government and public Darktrace records.

The sunken vessel, lying on the seabed at a depth of some 50 metres (164 feet), is thought to have watertight safes containing two super-encrypted hard drives that hold highly classified information, including passcodes and other sensitive data, an official involved in the salvage plans, who asked not to be named, told CNN. Specialist divers with remote cameras have searched the boat extensively.

Initially, local law enforcement feared that would-be thieves might try to reach the wreckage to find expensive jewelry and other objects of value still onboard the yacht, according to divers with the Fire Brigade who spoke with CNN. Now they are concerned that the wreckage, expected to be raised in the coming weeks as part of the criminal investigation into the tragedy, will also be of interest to foreign governments, including Russia and China. They have requested that the yacht be guarded closely, both above water and with underwater surveillance.

“A formal request has been accepted and implemented for additional security of the wreckage until it can be raised,” an official with the Sicilian civil protection authority who is assisting with the criminal investigation confirmed to CNN.

Lynch, his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, American attorney Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda, British banker Jonathan Bloomer and his wife Judy, and the yacht’s onboard chef Recaldo Thomas died when the ship sank in a violent storm in the early hours of the morning.

Take note that the autopsy results for Mike Lynch and his daughter are less clear on cause of death.

Preliminary results from autopsies suggest that the Bloomer and Morvillo couples died of suffocation or “dry drowning” when the oxygen in an air bubble in a sleeping cabin ran out. Autopsy results for Lynch and his daughter were less clear.

The chef, whose body was found outside the vessel, died by drowning, the coroner said. Toxicology reports on the dead have not yet been released, but none had suffered any physical injuries when the boat went down.

Lynch’s wife Angela Bacares and 14 others survived, including the captain James Cutfield, who, along with a deckhand and the yacht’s engine room manager, is under investigation for multiple manslaughter and causing a negligent shipwreck. They have all been allowed to leave Italy.(??)

Some of the 15 survivors, of whom nine were crew members and six were passengers, including a one-year-old girl, reportedly told prosecutors that Lynch “did not trust cloud services” and always kept data drives in a secure compartment of the yacht wherever he sailed, a source with the prosecutor’s office told CNN. None of the crew or passengers who survived the incident were tested for drugs or alcohol because they were in a “state of shock,” authorities said during a news conference following the recovery of the bodies.

Morvillo represented Lynch when he was acquitted in a criminal fraud case in the US in June tied to the takeover by Hewlett Packard of his software company Autonomy, and survivors told investigators that the cruise was a celebration of that acquittal, according to the assistant prosecutor, Raffaele Cammarano. Though Lynch was acquitted of any criminal wrongdoing in the US, Hewlett Packard has indicated it will not drop its bid to collect a US$4 billion civil payout from Lynch’s estate, awarded by a British court in 2022.

In what appears to be a tragic coincidence, Lynch’s business partner Stephen Chamberlain — who was his co-defendant in the US fraud case and the former chief operating officer of Darktrace — died on August 19, the same day the Bayesian sank, after being hit by a car while out jogging two days earlier. A spokesperson for the prosecutor’s office told CNN that Cutfield told them Lynch had learned of Chamberlain’s serious condition and had planned to cut the cruise short to return to the UK to see his business partner, who had been on life support.

The Bayesian sank a few hours before Chamberlain died in the hospital, his lawyer said. Lynch would not have known of his partner’s death, and Chamberlain was in a coma so would not have known about the shipwreck, Chamberlain’s legal counsel said.

Local prosecutor Ambrogio Cartosio said no personal effects, including computers, jewelry or Lynch’s hard drives had been recovered from the vessel. However, the onboard hard drives and surveillance cameras tied to the yacht’s navigation system have been brought to investigators to determine if there is any usable data that might indicate how the yacht sank within 16 minutes of the storm hitting. The vessel did not have a traditional black box or voyage data recorder to record navigation data or audio on the bridge.

After divers complete surveys of the wreck this week, they will make suggestions for how to best raise the 473-ton vessel without spilling any of the 18,000 litres of oil and fuel still onboard, and how to make sure any sensitive data does not fall into the wrong hands. The costs of raising the ship will fall to its owner, Lynch’s widow, as is mandated by Italian maritime law.

The Italian Navy’s secretive Comsubin unit are combing the yacht for any electronic devices that might offer clues to why it sunk – as well as checking to see if any doors were left open on board.

Could they be looking for anything else? It seems that might just be the case!

la Repubblica- Palermo ( a local/ regional news article)

Un tesoro di gioielli, ma soprattutto un tesoro di informazioni contenute nei due hard disk dai quali Mike Lynch non si separava mai. A 49 metri di profondità nelle casseforti del veliero potrebbero esserci documenti di enorme valore per le intelligence di tutto il mondo.

A treasure of jewels, but above all a treasure of information contained in the two hard drives from which Mike Lynch never separated. At 49 meters deep in the safes of the sailing ship there could be documents of enormous value for intelligence around the world.

These two hard drives hold very valuable intelligence.

More info reported in the Palermo article from here

Sources told the paper the disks held: “the great digital archive of the IT entrepreneur whose clients included the British MI5, the American NSA and the Israeli services”.

The Italian newspaper said the “super drives” are protected by “cutting-edge encryption”.

Lynch reportedly did not trust the cloud to save his high-level business secrets so always had the hard drives on him.

The billionaire partly made his wealth by creating algorithms and software widely used by top Western security agencies.

His company Autonomy won high-profile contracts with governments, including a deal to provide infrastructure to the US Homeland Security for the post-9/11 war on terror.

Lynch also co-founded the cybersecurity company Darktrace and employed high-ranking intelligence agents for the firm.

There is no reason to question the existence of these hard drives or doubt they are an intelligence mother lode- all things considered.

Darktrace has developed a reputation as a sleek AI cybersecurity startup with ties to spy agencies like MI5 and the U.S. National Security Agency.

Lynch founded Darktrace in partnership with former British intelligence officials in 2013.

One of the co-founders was Stephen Haxter, a senior member of MI5’s cyber defence team, who became Darktrace’s chief executive. Then Haxter, according to Politico, hired 30-year veteran of the secret service GCHQ (the British government’s communications headquarters), Andrew France,

Former MI5 chief Jonathan Evans also served on Darktrace’s board for a time, while Jim Penrose, a 17-year US National Security Agency veteran, was in charge of the company’s US-related business. Other former spies at the company included technology director Dave Palmer, who previously worked at MI5 and GCHQ, and security director John Richardson, who worked in cyber defence for the UK government.

It’s been obvious, to me anyway, that there has been more to this incident then met the eye– Still no word on why the unsinkable ship sank

To me the narrative creation, and it is a creative narrative, is intended as a misdirection. Yes, misdirection, the action or process of directing someone to the wrong place or in the wrong direction. Misdirection is a form of deception. An intentional deception A manipulation.

The facts of this story contradict the misdirection. Questionable business dealings. Criminality. Ties to intelligence agencies. The unsinkable yacht. The preposterous and highly questionable storm? The timely killing of the co- conspirator in crime?

The only thing missing from this tall tale is a sea monster. A Kraken or a Leviathan- The Leviathan is often an embodiment of chaos, threatening to eat the damned when their lives are over

A Leviathan is equally as plausible as freak storms, climate change and the copiousness of coincidences

So check the excerpts from the linked article and tell me what you thing?

The sinking of tech billionaire Mike Lynch’s yacht in a freak storm off the Sicilian coast last week certainly has to rank among the most bizarre fatal celebrity accidents in years. There was the weird coincidence that Lynch had just gotten acquitted after a years long legal battle over a multibillion-dollar fraud; the eerie synchrony of the same-day death of his co-defendant after being struck by car while jogging;

the fact that the $40 million vessel had been described as virtually unsinkable; the fact no vessel that size had been sunk by a waterspout in centuries; and the fact that the area where it struck is not known for waterspouts.

But perhaps the wildest thing about the whole saga is the yacht’s name, Bayesian.

Bayesian, refers to a method of statistical calculation that was originally devised by an 18th-century Presbyterian minister, Thomas Bayes. Lynch named his yacht after Bayes’s method in recognition of its role in building his fortune. In short, he had honored a method of calculating probabilities — only to be killed aboard its namesake by an accumulation of wildly off-the-chart improbabilities.

Not to mention the death by water symbolism

“The irony is tragic,” says British science journalist Tom Chivers, who writes for Semafor and published a book this year on Bayesian statistics called Everything Is Predictable. “It’s not a subtle irony. Bayes is the maths of prediction. This sequence of events is just spectacularly unlikely.”

It’s as if Charles Kane had been crushed to death under a giant rosebud.

How did we get here? In statistics, total probability is calculated by multiplying together all the component probabilities. So let’s look at the individual parts of the case.

The name

Mike Lynch was something of a black-swan event in himself. Until he came along, the U.K. had never before had a software billionaire.In 1990, while still a student, he founded his first company at the age of 25 with a loan of £2,000 from an eccentric acquaintance he made in a bar.

An unnamed eccentric acquaintance, in a Soho bar, makes a loan of £2,000

Well that certainly adds to the mystery?

The Trial

The trial took a long time to unfold in part because Lynch waged a years long battle against extradition from the U.K. to the United States, a battle he finally lost in 2023. This past March, his trial began in San Francisco. The New York Times noted that “Mr. Lynch’s odds do not look good.” (Former Autonomy CFO Sushovan Hussain had already been convicted on similar charges and sentenced to five years in prison.) But Lynch and Chamberlain beat the odds. On June 6, a jury found both men not guilty on all counts. “Lynch’s win is extremely unusual in federal criminal cases,” as the New York Post reported. “In fact, only less than 1% of federal cases ended in acquittal in 2022, according to the Pew Research Center.”

What are the odds?

The unsinkable yacht

In interviews with Italian media, Giovanni Costantino, chairman of the company that built the Bayesian, said that his firm’s sailing yachts are “unsinkable” and among “the safest boats in the world.”

How about those waterspouts?

Like tornadoes, waterspouts are more likely to be found in areas where the meteorological conditions are favorable for their development, such as the Florida Keys and Lake Erie. ( I live very near Lake Erie, and water spouts are reported regularly including holding the world record for them- sinking ships are not part of that equation!) As for the region where the Bayesian sank, “I wouldn’t say that this is a hot spot” for waterspouts, says Szilagi.

Even assuming gross negligence on the part of the crew, the sinking of a vessel as large and robust as the Bayesian by a waterspout is vanishingly improbable. Such events are simply exceedingly rare, and none has been so deadly in centuries. In 2004, a waterspout in Greece picked up a boat and flung it onto a 10-year-old boy, killing him. And last year, a waterspout struck a 50-foot boat on Italy’s Lake Maggiore, killing four. The last reported time a waterspout claimed as many victims as died on the Bayesian was back in the 16th century, when one struck a crowded harbor in Malta, killing hundreds.

The death of a partner in crime-the same day!

The same day that the Bayesian sank, U.K. police reported that Chamberlain had died in hospital of his injuries. He became one of the 165 pedestrians between the age of 25 and 59, out of a U.K. population of 42 million, to be killed each year by vehicles.

The bizarreness of this string of unlikelihoods has been lost on no one. “This sequence of events is just spectacularly unlikely,” Chivers notes. “There is this Bayesian-probability aspect to it, this building of unlikeliness upon unlikeliness.”

If you wonder why it is this story is simply not credible after read the excerpts above as well as the entire article, revisit the two previous posts.

The only thing that really makes any sense to me is that some interested party/parties took action/s causing this ship to fail, catastrophically. Mr Lynch surely had made enemies.

All the gobbledygook narrative creation around this improbable sinking really strains credulity

I’m thinking a sea monster really did it!

Excerpted from a lengthier article focusing on intelligence ties..

It’s safe to conclude, in my opinion, that Mike Lynch and his coincidentally killed partner Stephen Chamberlain were both former intelligence officials.

The members of the Darktrace company were former intelligence officers

Lynch founded Darktrace in partnership with former British intelligence officials in 2013, after selling the software company Autonomy in 2011. The company was set up to combat cyberattacks by using software that learns the patterns of behaviour of every agent in an organisation and detecting any unusual activity.

One of the co-founders was Stephen Haxter, a senior member of MI5’s cyber defence team, who became Darktrace’s chief executive. Then Haxter, according to Politico, hired 30-year veteran of the secret service GCHQ (the British government’s communications headquarters), Andrew France, as the company’s CEO – who later joined the board of directors. Lynch served on the board until 2018, when he resigned after being accused of fraud.

Lynch served on the board until 2018

In addition, former MI5 chief Jonathan Evans also served on Darktrace’s board for a time, while Jim Penrose, a 17-year US National Security Agency veteran, was in charge of the company’s US-related business. Other former spies at the company included technology director Dave Palmer, who previously worked at MI5 and GCHQ, and security director John Richardson, who worked in cyber defence for the UK government.

Lynch’s links with intelligence agencies go back 28 years

Lynch’s connections to the intelligence sphere predate Darktrace. His first company Cambridge Neurodynamics, which specialized in computer fingerprint recognition, had contracts with British intelligence agencies, Politico reports.

Lynch spun Autonomy out of Neurodynamics in 1996. The company, which Chamberlain joined in 2005, used machine learning to analyze data from sources such as intercepted phone calls and emails.

Autonomy also won high-profile tenders from UK and US government agencies, including a contract to provide infrastructure to the US Office of Homeland Security to analyse intelligence in the context of the post-9/11 war on terror.

The company reportedly held other contracts with US government agencies such as the military, NASA and US intelligence agencies. GCHQ and MI6 are also believed to have been clients. Furthermore, Richard Pearl (Richard Perle) a former Pentagon appointee, served as one of the company’s directors.

The name was spelled incorrectly in the article, but, there is little doubt the man being referred to is this Richard Perle- How interesting that name keeps popping up from time to time. Yup, this Richard Perle. Neo Con extraordinaire and Clean Break author for Benjamin Netanyahu

The fraud charges and the acquittal

Lynch had been in the headlines in recent months because of a high-profile fraud case. According to Sky News, on 15 June he was cleared by a US court of all charges relating to the sale of Autonomy to Hewlett-Packard in 2011.

He was extradited to the US to stand trial in May last year and spent 13 months under house arrest in San Francisco as he awaited trial on 17 charges of conspiracy and fraud – later reduced to 15 – brought against him by the US Justice Department.

In 2021 Microsoft and Darktrace partnered up

Microsoft is partnering with Darktrace, a leading autonomous cyber security AI company that uses self-learning artificial intelligence to respond to threats at machine speed.

The business, which was founded in Cambridge, UK, in 2013, provides best-in-class cyber AI to protect organisations against attacks of all kinds – including insider threats, espionage, supply chain attacks, phishing and ransomware.

Suddenly it all went to hell!

In April it was being reported that Putin and Zelensky would likely be meeting in Turkey suggesting a deal was soon to be at hand.

“Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia told a local TV station that the two leaders could soon meet as draft peace-treaty documents reach an advanced stage, reported the Interfax-Ukraine News Agency.

Arakhamia said that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan “called both us and Vladimir Putin yesterday, and he seemed to confirm for his part that they were ready to organize a meeting in the near future.”

Additional coverage of negotiations

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.ca/2022/03/28/russian-ukraine-delegations-arrive-in-istanbul-for-peace-talks/

I see my thinking at the time was Russia moved troops away from Kiev as a gesture of goodwill-

Pennysays:
March 29, 2022 at 4:30 pm

Hi Brian
listening right now- my first thought regarding Russia’s move away from Kiev…
Russia offered Zelensky a face saving measure- threw a bone to him.
He could then take it back and pound his chest about a gain.

On March 21/22

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.ca/2022/03/21/russian-ukrainian-delegations-maximally-converge-positions-on-ukraines-neutral-status/

It was reported that Ukraine and Russia had converged (come together) on Ukraine’s neutral status and non-accession to NATO

Quoting from the information of the day

“The topic of Ukraine’s neutral status and non-accession to NATO is one of the key points at the talks and this is the point on which the sides have brought their positions maximally closer,” Medinsky said.

I can only agree with the fact there was movement to settling this situation diplomatically.

So let’s read from Foreign Affairs
Or https://archive.ph/ajonZ#selection-1611.71-1611.965

The gist of the linked article is, yes, there were intense talks to bring this situation to an end. Saving many, many lives in the process. According to this report the British leader put the brakes on it. Thanks Boris Johnson aka Bojangles, you definitely do the death dance impeccably (I’d assumed the US was the biggest player in damning the deal)

“What is less understood is the simultaneous intense diplomacy involving Moscow, Kyiv, and a host of other actors, which could have resulted in a settlement just weeks after the war began.

By the end of March 2022, a series of in-person meetings in Belarus and Turkey and virtual engagements over video conference had produced the so-called Istanbul Communiqué, which described a framework for a settlement. Ukrainian and Russian negotiators then began working on the text of a treaty, making substantial progress toward an agreement
What happened? How close were the parties to ending the war? And why did they never finalize a deal?

We have examined draft agreements exchanged between the two sides, some details of which have not been reported previously. We have also conducted interviews with several participants in the talks as well as with officials serving at the time in key Western governments, to whom we have granted anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters. And we have reviewed numerous contemporaneous and more recent interviews with and statements by Ukrainian and Russian officials who were serving at the time of the talks. Most of these are available on YouTube but are not in English and thus not widely known in the West. Finally, we scrutinized the timeline of events from the start of the invasion through the end of May, when talks broke down.

When we put all these pieces together, what we found is surprising—and could have significant implications for future diplomatic efforts to end the war.

Interestingly it looks as if Ukraine was concerned with guarantees from their western allies

But on March 10, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, then in Antalya, Turkey, for a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, spoke of a “systematic, sustainable solution” for Ukraine, adding that the Ukrainians were “ready to discuss” guarantees it hoped to receive from NATO member states and Russia.

What Kuleba seemed to have in mind was a multilateral security guarantee, an arrangement whereby competing powers commit to the security of a third state, usually on the condition that it will remain unaligned with any of the guarantors.

Skipping through the article, but, please read entirely at link provided

There, they appeared to have achieved a breakthrough. After the meeting, the sides announced they had agreed to a joint communiqué. The terms were broadly described during the two sides’ press statements in Istanbul. But we have obtained a copy of the full text of the draft communiqué, titled “Key Provisions of the Treaty on Ukraine’s Security Guarantees.” According to participants we interviewed, the Ukrainians had largely drafted the communiqué and the Russians provisionally accepted the idea of using it as the framework for a treaty.

The treaty envisioned in the communiqué would proclaim Ukraine as a permanently neutral, nonnuclear state. Ukraine would renounce any intention to join military alliances or allow foreign military bases or troops on its soil. The communiqué listed as possible guarantors the permanent members of the UN Security Council (including Russia) along with Canada, Germany, Israel, Italy, Poland, and Turkey.

Although Ukraine would be permanently neutral under the proposed framework, Kyiv’s path to EU membership would be left open, and the guarantor states (including Russia) would explicitly “confirm their intention to facilitate Ukraine’s membership in the European Union.” This was nothing short of extraordinary: in 2013, Putin had put intense pressure on Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to back out of a mere association agreement with the EU. Now, Russia was agreeing to “facilitate” Ukraine’s full accession to the EU.

WHAT HAPPENED?

So why did the talks break off? Putin has claimed that Western powers intervened and spiked the deal because they were more interested in weakening Russia than in ending the war. He alleged that Boris Johnson, who was then the British prime minister, had delivered the message to the Ukrainians, on behalf of “the Anglo-Saxon world,” that they must “fight Russia until victory is achieved and Russia suffers a strategic defeat.”

There are large excerpts of the article omitted, so do read it entirely and then share some thoughts?

In closing, at that time, at least in my opinion, it looked as if some sort of deal was close and then it was all gone.

Finding this a curious oped, published in WSJ, from Liz Truss.
I don’t dispute the existence of a deep state. Her oped includes a a good description of the existence of the deep state and the problems it brings – “shift of power away from democratically accountable officeholders to unelected bureaucrats and technocrats.”

The EU is an extreme example of this type of deep state apparatus running rough shod over nation states and their elected leadership- But the US and Canada have their own share of embedded bureaucrats and technocrats. Seeing Mark Carney everywhere is a perfect example of the kind of technocrat wielding power/given a mass audience for no apparent reason

We’ll read the last few paragraphs, but, the entire piece should be read

Unelected bureaucrats caused this market turmoil, but elected representatives were blamed. Neither I nor Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng had been given any warning before the liability-driven investment fund situation blew up. When the Bank of England announced it would buy gilts to support the pension funds—a move that everyone knew would prompt investors to unload their government bonds—I knew they had me at gunpoint. We had to ditch our program or risk a market meltdown that would leave the government unable to finance its debt. There should be an independent investigation into what happened, but the establishment would never allow it.

The U.S. economic establishment already is arming against Mr. Trump and his economic program. After the disaster of Bidenomics—with its ballooning subsidies, tax hikes, burdensome regulation and more than $34.6 trillion of debt—a program of supply-side measures like oil and gas exploration, spending cuts and tax reform is desperately needed. In March, CBO Director Phillip Swagel explicitly warned that the mounting U.S. fiscal burden threatened a crisis of the kind that brought me down. Corporate borrowers are also reportedly preparing for market volatility.

Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan has warned the federal debt is pushing the economy toward a financial cliff. This isn’t a fight only to return to fiscal responsibility, but also to return power to the people’s elected representatives. My Republican friends must be ready for the fight of their lives.

While railing against the technocracy she quotes Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan- A technocrat, with in the bureaucracy she claims is threatening democracy–

Thoughts?

A few headlines based on a very superficial search- Certainly many, many more examples can be found

The Telegraph- Overthrowing Putin is a legitimate war aim

The race to overthrow Putin and take his Kremlin crown has begun

Biden contradicts aides and reaffirms his call for Putin’s overthrow

President Biden contradicted his own staff Monday by insisting he did not regret or retract his spontaneous call from over the weekend for Russian President Vladimir Putin to be removed from power in response to his invasion of Ukraine.

“I’m not walking anything back,” Biden told reporters

The most likely perps. What makes the most sense all things considered? Western Intelligence groups have the means, motivation and assets enabling the carrying out a terrorist attack like the one that took place- I'm referring to CIA, MI5, Mossad, HUR, and others. The claim by ISIS is a smoke screen. It distracts from and gives cover to the most likely and realistic perpetrators.

CNN- Appalling Terror Attack Blow to Putin

Barely a week since Vladimir Putin secured his fifth presidential term, Russia has been plunged into carnage and disarray.

The appalling attack on the vast Crocus City Hall concert venue and shopping complex near Moscow, which has been claimed by ISIS, has left hundreds of innocents killed or injured.

The four men suspected of carrying out the attack were arrested near Russia’s border with Ukraine, Russian authorities said. Putin said they had planned to cross into Ukraine – Kyiv has denied any link with the attack and warned Russia could use it as an excuse to escalate its invasion.

This is hardly the stability and security for which so many Russians voted for President Putin.

For years, the Kremlin strongman has been cast as a leader able to guarantee order in this vast, turbulent country.

But Russia today seems more insecure and volatile than at any point in Putin’s 24 years in power

The CNN article is coming off as gloating

Let’s talk about ISIS taking responsibility. ISIS Khorosan to be specific.

ISIS Khorosan first reared it’s head in Syria. ISIS Khorosan was located in a part of Syria that had been taken over by Kurdish fighters allied with the US. Until Russia and Turkey cooperated to clear them out. In 2014. Yes, in 2014 I’d written about that topic at my former site. The biggest problem with the ISIS Khorosan narrative is that it originates entirely with American intel.

Original url below

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2014/11/us-strikes-khorasan-again-in-syria.html

One of the sources used in that piece was from the BBC- Nov 2014

Little is known about Khorasan other than information released by US officials.

I’m going to repeat that

At the time the Khorosan narrative emerged the US claimed they killed a Khorosan bomb maker named David Drugeon

https://www.cnn.com/2014/11/06/world/syria-strike/

A U.S. airstrike in Syria appears to have killed a key French jihadist who is part of the militant Khorasan Group, a U.S. defense official said Thursday morning.

It needs to be understood the the US created the ISIS Khorosan narrative and they control all aspects of it.

What makes more sense in this situation?

The CIA and other intelligence groups are stationed in at least 12 locations along the Ukrainian/Russia border.- The gunmen at the concert hall were attempting to cross the Russia border and enter into Ukraine- Where, they would have met their contacts and been spirited away..

Let’s go back to this previous report

The Spy War: How the CIA Helps Ukraine Fight Putin

The C.I.A. and other American intelligence agencies provide intelligence ,track Russian troop movements and help support spy networks.

But the partnership is no wartime creation, nor is Ukraine the only beneficiary”

Supported network of spy bases constructed in the past eight years that includes 12 secret locations along the Russian border.”

head of one of Russia’s main spy services, who told him that the C.I.A., together with Britain’s MI6, were controlling Ukraine and turning it into a beachhead for operations against Moscow.”

The relationship was so successful that the C.I.A. wanted to replicate it with other European intelligence services that shared a focus in countering Russia

The head of Russia House, the C.I.A. department overseeing operations against Russia, organized a secret meeting at The Hague. There, representatives from the C.I.A., Britain’s MI6, the HUR, the Dutch service (a critical intelligence ally) and other agencies agreed to start pooling together more of their intelligence on Russia.

The result was a secret coalition against Russia — and the Ukrainians were vital members of it.

the C.I.A. and MI6 had trained their Ukrainian counterparts on recruiting sources, and building clandestine and partisan networks

Mr. Burns’s visit to Kyiv last week, a C.I.A. official said, “We have demonstrated a clear commitment to Ukraine over many years and this visit was another strong signal that the U.S. commitment will continue.”

Lastly- Israel may have been motivated to have Mossad participate in this attack because Russia had met with Hamas officials regarding the Gaza situation. Or Israel may have cooperated because they have motivations of their own- perhaps to get the US on board with their cleansing of Gaza?

Bottom line this was the work of multiple intelligence agencies working cooperatively on the Russian, Ukrainian border. As they have been for many, many years