At least 15 people were killed and more than 50 injured after Russia launched a large-scale overnight missile and drone attack on Kyiv and the surrounding Kyiv Oblast, causing widespread destruction, major fires, and extensive rescue operations.

The heaviest losses were recorded in Brovary district, where nine people were killed. Four more civilians died in Bucha district, while one person was killed in Fastiv district. Authorities said 12 people were injured in Brovary district, seven in Bucha district, and three in Fastiv district.

Emergency responders were deployed to seven locations across the three affected districts. Large warehouse fires broke out in Brovary, Velyka Dymerka, Kvitneve, and Peremoha. In Fastiv district, firefighters extinguished a blaze involving vehicles at a business site. In Bucha district, crews continued battling a warehouse fire in the village of Chaiky, while another fire at a logistics facility in Sofiivska Borshchahivka was brought under control.

In Kyiv, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said 15 of the injured required hospitalization, with four reported in critical condition. Search-and-rescue teams pulled two people alive from beneath the rubble of a collapsed warehouse in the Holosiivskyi district, although officials warned more victims could still be trapped.

Damage was reported in several parts of the capital, including the Holosiivskyi, Obolonskyi, Desnianskyi, and Sviatoshynskyi districts. In Obolonskyi, a ballistic missile struck a 20-story residential building, triggering a major fire. Another apartment building and two warehouse facilities also caught fire. In Desnianskyi district, a warehouse burned while missile debris landed near residential buildings. A large fire also broke out in the Kyiv-Sviatoshynskyi area outside the capital.

Ukraine‘s Air Force said Russia launched 24 ballistic missiles, four hypersonic missiles, and 115 Shahed-type attack drones during the overnight assault.

According to the military, none of the ballistic or hypersonic missiles were intercepted. Why?

No interceptors? Or refusal to use what they do have? I don’t know.

Read below;

Sweden Herald

During last night’s major attack on Kyiv, Ukraine appears not to have intercepted any Russian missiles, according to preliminary data from the country’s air defenses. That is neither surprising nor good, says military expert Joakim Paasikivi.

This could be a sign that Ukrainian missile stocks have reached a critically low level.

However, it cannot be ruled out that Ukraine is deliberately withholding information to further reinforce the message that the outside world needs to send more air defence, according to Lieutenant Colonel Johan Huovinen.

So, lack of air defence or holding out for more? Maybe a bit of both?

Ukraine’s former ambassador to US faces anti-corruption probe

Two days after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially dismissed Olha Stefanishyna as Ukraine’s ambassador to the US, she has been formally notified that she is a suspect in an anti-corruption investigation.

Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s former ambassador to the US, is under investigation in an anti-corruption case, with the High Anti-Corruption Court holding a hearing on the matter in Kyiv on Wednesday.

Two days after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially dismissed Olha Stefanishyna as Ukraine’s ambassador to the US, she has been formally notified that she is a suspect in an anti-corruption investigation.

Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s former ambassador to the US, is under investigation in an anti-corruption case, with the High Anti-Corruption Court holding a hearing on the matter in Kyiv on Wednesday.

Ukraine’s state broadcaster Suspilne reports that the National Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) served Stefanishyna with a new notice of suspicion on 5 August.

According to the SAPO prosecutor, Stefanishyna – a former ambassador to the US and ex–deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration – is accused of failing to declare two apartments and cash used to pay for renovations, airline tickets and the rent on another apartment.

She is also alleged to have failed to disclose her use of a car registered to one of her subordinates.

She hasn’t fled to Israel at this point in time.. Perhaps she can’t like so many other corrupt Ukrainian officials? Or she just hasn’t got there yet?

Most recent corrupt Ukrainian that headed straight to Israel

Legal proceedings expected to take place in absentia against entertainment tycoon Timur Mindich, who is accused of masterminding $100-million embezzlement plot at state companies

There is also..Alexander Tsukerman: A prominent businessman implicated alongside Mindich in the energy sector graft scandal, who also escaped to Israel

Denys Komarnytskyi: A former member of the Kyiv City Council suspected in separate land-related corruption schemes who also fled to Israel

But, I digress

First an oped from Maritime Executive;

The sanctions on Russia have transformed crude oil and refined product flows. Before the war, the vast majority of Russian seaborne crude went directly to European Union ports. Today, that flow has essentially dropped to zero, rerouting heavily toward Asia. China and India, who are not sanctioning Russia, now consume more than 80% of Russia's seaborne crude oil exports. This has led to a massive boost in long-haul Suezmax and Aframax employment. One would typically use VLCCs for these long-haul trips to Asia, but Russia does not have access to VLCC-capable export terminals. This has transformed Russia’s oil flows from using regional pipelines and short-haul voyages to long-haul trips on medium-sized, suboptimal tonnage.

The introduction and enforcement of price caps and trade bans has reshaped fleet ownership, vessel values, and maritime safety standards globally. The sanctions against Russia have also fractured the global oil tanker industry, splitting the maritime shipping world into two distinct, parallel markets: the regulated “mainstream” market and a booming, opaque “shadow” market.

Surviving The Sanctions

Despite the sanctions, Russian crude oil exports have largely been maintained. As a matter of fact, they have been rising in 2026 to date.

Russian crude oil exports are rising! Read the rest at the above link.

Finally;

Turkish cargo ship hit in suspected Ukrainian attack near Russian port (VIDEOS)

The captain said the Nadezhda, which reportedly carried fruit and vegetables, was struck by Kiev’s drones

A Turkish-operated cargo ship was hit in an apparent Ukrainian drone attack off the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk late on Monday.

The Nadezhda had a crew of 22, including 13 Turkish citizens, according to the DGM. Turkish media reported that the vessel was operated by Samsun-based Kalyoncu Shipping and had been carrying fruit and vegetables from Türkiye to Russia.

Lavrov had mentioned this was already happening and I’d covered it in this previous post

Russia hopes Türkiye will send a strong signal to Ukraine following attacks on Turkish vessels in the Black Sea, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, APA’s Moscow bureau reports.

RT

A key bridge serving as a strategic link for transporting cargo from Romania into Ukraine has reportedly been seriously damaged in recent Russian strikes.

The reports of damage to the Zatoka Bridge, which have not been confirmed by ( Russian) officials, come amid a major escalation in mutual attacks on logistics infrastructure. Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky initiated the exchanges last month when he announced a 40-day “pressure campaign” against Russia. Moscow’s retaliatory strikes have already paralyzed direct maritime shipments to and from Ukraine through the Black Sea.

The overnight attack on the bridge in Ukraine’s Odessa Region reportedly caused one of its sections to collapse. Russian military-themed online outlets published footage on Monday morning that they claimed showed the nighttime strikes and the damage recorded the following morning.

The bridge is crucial for cargo transported to and from Ukraine through Romanian ports. The route, an alternative to direct shipments through ports in Odessa and Nikolaev Regions, has limited capacity but remained operational after commercial companies were deterred from using Ukrainian ports by the threat of Russian attacks.

Ukraine media appears to be acknowledging this attack did indeed occur, in a round about way

Today, civilian vessels in the ports of Greater Odesa and the Danube region, as well as the transport infrastructure of Odesa region, again came under attack by the Russian Federation.

Transport infrastructure- Like a bridge?

Russia’s ministry of defense claims that its forces have struck two more ships near the port of Odesa, along with shoreside infrastructure.

As the ministry often does, it claimed that the vessels were carrying arms for Ukraine’s military.

Ukraine’s shipping corridor almost certainly serves the transport of arms, but its civilian usage is just as important to the country’s economy.

Russia claims they hit two ships carrying weapons.. In some sort of strange way of denying this reality the article says the corridor almost certainly serves the transport of arms, but, it’s also used for civilian imports. Sure. In a round about way the article is acknowledging Russia is hitting arms being transported..

Tit for tat

“Both sides have been taking aim at civilian grain ships in an effort to impose economic pressure and stretch the other side’s defenses.”

Iran mentioned in the article

Iran came close to joining the Russian campaign against Ukraine’s seaports, according to the New York Times, in hopes of retaliating for the recent Ukrainian strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Diplomatic efforts appear to have headed off an escalation

Ukraine has been involved in the fighting against Iran

The two sides are already engaged in an indirect fight. Ukraine has helped GCC nations to defend against Iran’s lower-end drones, which are slow, numerous, and very familiar to Ukraine’s experts

Lower end drones?

Poland suspects Russia violated airspace

Information on targets hit by Russia in Ukraine

On Thursday, the Russian Defense Ministry revealed the targets of the large-scale strike, which was carried out with long-range precision weapons launched from the air and from attack drones against Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities and infrastructure.

The Russian Defense said in a statement: “Last night, the Russian Armed Forces launched a large-scale strike with long-range, high-precision air, land and sea weapons, in addition to drones, against military industry enterprises, communications and logistics centers in the cities of Kiev and Lvov, the provinces of Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne and Dnipropetrovsk, and cargo ships in the port of Yuzhny.”

The Russian defense statement revealed the targets targeted by Russian forces in the city of Kiev, and explained that the Kiev artillery and rifle assembly plant (Mayak Factory) was targeted, which manufactures components, warheads, fuses and ammunition, as well as launch boosters for long- and medium-range drones.

The Kiev Industrial Corporation (Electrical Technologies Factory), which produces and manufactures medium-range reconnaissance and attack drones, was targeted.

In the city of Lvov, Russian Defense confirmed that the “Lvov-1” missile assembly and manufacturing plant (Lvov State Factory) was targeted, which produces the electronics on board missiles with various modifications, in addition to radar systems for long-range guided missiles of the “Neptune” type and the “S-300” air defense system (reproduction project).

The Ministry indicated that Russian forces targeted in Ivano-Frankivsk Province:

Industrial company “Kalush”, which is engaged in the production and storage of “Flamingo” missiles, operational and tactical missiles, “Neptune” missiles, long-range guided missiles, as well as testing of combat units of operational and tactical missiles “Thunder-2”.

Russian Defense explained that in the Rivna District, the Russian army targeted: the “Rovno” chemical plant (Rovnozot), which produces aggregate components and rocket fuel components for the “Flamingo” missiles, tactical missiles and “Grom-2” tactical missiles.

The Ministry confirmed that Russian forces targeted in Dnipropetrovsk Province:

Shipbuilding enterprise “Kryvyi Rih”, for the development, assembly, modernization and storage of aircraft and unmanned boats, in cooperation with the company “Energocomplex”, which manufactures and repairs self-propelled howitzers, including those made from foreign components.

According to the ministry’s statement, in Odessa Province, a cargo ship carrying military supplies was targeted in the port of Youzhny.

The war continues between Ukraine and Russia

More interesting reads below:

Russia warns coalition of willing forces in Ukraine would be ‘legitimate military targets’

Russia on Tuesday warned that the military contingents from the so-called “coalition of the willing” in Ukraine would be “legitimate military targets” if stationed there.

Commenting on remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron about plans for deploying forces in Ukraine at a press briefing in Moscow, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called this possible move “unacceptable.”

“In this context, we would like to once again emphasize that the deployment in Ukraine of any military contingents from the so-called coalition of the willing is unacceptable for our country,” she stressed.

Zakharova added: “This would, I repeat, de facto amount to foreign intervention and an increase in threats to Russia’s security. Such units will be regarded by us as legitimate military targets.”

The official also said that Western arms deliveries remained one of the main obstacles to a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.

She referred to previous remarks by former EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who said the conflict would have ended “within days, weeks, or a month” if Europe stopped arms supplies to Ukraine.

“If the Western Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe participating states genuinely want to end the confrontation, which is draining the resources of their own taxpayers, they simply need to stop supplying weapons to the Kyiv regime,” she said.

The spokeswoman urged Europe to “stop hiding behind talk of peace and openly admit that they want only one thing—aggression.”

Zakharova also said that Western-supplied weapons had been used against Russian civilians and warned that some of the arms had entered illicit circulation.

“Such cases have already been documented,” she said, adding that weapons had allegedly surfaced not only in Europe but also in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East.

Separately, Zakharova criticized military exercises conducted by Poland near the borders with Russia and Belarus, describing them as an attempt to “flex its muscles.”

She said the drills, held on July 13-14, reflected what she called Warsaw’s desire to strengthen its position as “the leader of Eastern Europe” and “the main bastion of NATO’s eastern flank.”

“The intensification of Poland’s military activity near the borders of Russia and Belarus once again demonstrates the complete irresponsibility of the Polish elite,” Zakharova said.

Russia and China are set to meet in Ankara

Russian Ambassador to Ankara Sergey Vershinin, will host an intriguing event on 16 July. In fact, it is a joint initiative with China’s Ambassador to Ankara Jiang Xuebin , though the venue has been set as the Russian Embassy. A conference will mark the 25th anniversary of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation between Russia and China.

The same program is being held in capitals around the world. In Australia, for example, the venue is the Chinese Embassy in Canberra. In some countries the conferences are hosted by Russian embassies, in others by Chinese missions.

Speaking at the conference held at the Russian Embassy in Beijing, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Liu Bin said that Russia and China regard each other as “foreign policy priorities” and “support one another on core interests.”

Ukraine has been attacking Turkish vessels in the Sea of Azov- Interesting

Lavrov: Russia expects Türkiye to send strong signal to Ukraine over attacks on Turkish vessels

Russia hopes Türkiye will send a strong signal to Ukraine following attacks on Turkish vessels in the Black Sea, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, APA’s Moscow bureau reports.
avrov described Ukraine’s attacks on civilian vessels in the Sea of Azov as terrorism.

The Russian foreign minister added that such actions could not even be described as piracy.

“Because pirates seize cargo, they do not destroy it,” Lavrov said.

He said Moscow expects Ankara to publicly assess Kyiv’s actions.

FETÖ members enjoy freedom in US after plot against Türkiye

Of course they do! At my censored blog there are many, many articles covering the US backed coup attempt on the Turkish leader.

Russia calls for immediate halt to military hostilities in Persian gulf/Strait of Hormuz

New US Sanctions Target Russian Oil Exports and Shadow Fleet

New U.S. Sanctions Bill Targets Russia’s Oil Exports and Shadow Fleet
By RFE/RL staff – Jul 15, 2026, 9:00 AM CDT

The revised bill replaces the earlier proposed 500% tariff with tariffs of up to 100% aimed primarily at the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas.
The legislation would impose broad sanctions on Russian officials, financial institutions, energy projects, oligarchs, and the shadow fleet used to evade existing sanctions.
Although the proposal enjoys strong bipartisan Senate support, it faces criticism in the House over the amount of tariff authority granted to the president.

Chinese FM rejects US unilateral sanctions targeting Russian energy buyers

Chinese Foreign Ministry (FM) spokesperson Lin Jian on Wednesday rejected a new US sanctions bill targeting countries that continue energy trade with Russia, saying China firmly opposes “illegal unilateral sanctions” that lack a basis in international law or authorization from the UN Security Council.

China will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of its enterprises and citizens, Lin said, warning that applying double standards and resorting to coercion and pressure will ultimately “end up shooting oneself in the foot.”

US issues new non-proliferation sanctions against those tied with Iran and Russia

The United States has imposed new non-proliferation sanctions targeting individuals and entities in Russia and Iran, according to a post on the US Treasury Department’s website, The Times of Israel reports.

Link

In recent days, Ukrainian Armed Forces have damaged three key bridges at land entry points into Russian-occupied Crimea.

In the early hours of June 11, Ukraine’s Defense Forces conducted an airstrike on the bridge spanning the Crimea Canal in Armyansk, currently under Russian occupation. 

Residents of Armyansk reported hearing explosions at around 1:57 a.m., with reports confirming a strike on the road bridge, which has since sustained damage. Initial information also indicates that another bridge, located at the entrance to Krasnoperekopsk from Armyansk, was damaged as well.

Prior to this, on June 9 and 10, Ukrainian forces launched missile strikes on the Chonhar Bridge and on another bridge connecting Russian-held Henichesk to the Arabat Spit. These actions have effectively rendered all major land entry bridges into annexed Crimea unusable.

Back in May, Ukraine’s Defense Forces began an operation aimed at isolating Russian troops on the occupied peninsula. As part of this campaign, missile and drone strikes have targeted bridges and key roadways connecting Russia-via Rostov-on-Don and Taganrog-to Crimea through other occupied cities such as Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol, and Dzhankoi.

The strategy to blockade Crimea’s land corridor appears to be working. The commander of Russia’s “Vostok” troop grouping has reportedly banned movement of military cargo along the Mariupol-Berdyansk-Melitopol-Simferopol route in occupied Ukrainian territory.

Ukrainian media is reporting on the work arounds

The first alternative route runs through the towns of Novooleksiivka, Askania-Nova, Chaplynka, and Myrne, from where vehicles can reach Armiansk.

The second detour option also begins in Novooleksiivka but then runs through Hromivka, Chaplynka, and Myrne, ending in Armiansk.

Both routes pass over the bridge from Myrne to Highway E97, which leads to Armiansk. This bridge was also under attack but likely sustained no significant damage.

Meanwhile, the Kerch Bridge, which connects the peninsula to Russian territory, remains operational, though traffic across it remains significantly restricted.

Strict restrictions on tonnage and vehicle types are in effect on the Kerch Bridge; in particular, electric vehicles are completely banned from using it.

That’s likely related to the explosive battery issue with EV’s.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed deeper peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a combative open letter on Thursday

Mr. Zelenskyy floated direct negotiations hosted by Switzerland, Turkey or “countries of the Arab world,” adding that talks could not take place in Moscow or Kyiv.

Mr. Zelenskyy said, is prepared to agree to a complete ceasefire for the duration of negotiations and insisted that Kyiv is not looking for a “permanent war.”

However, he insisted that Ukraine would not negotiate with Russia without the European Union leaders present and hoped that the U.S. would serve as monitors of a potential ceasefire.

“If you do not personally come to the conclusion that it is time to end this war, Ukraine will continue fighting for its existence. We will have those who support us,” he wrote. “It is a fact of Russian history that you know well: When Russia grows tired, change comes. We can work toward that fatigue. You can stop your war.”

So, Zelensky does some historical rewriting.. You can stop your war? Dictating terms for the meeting? Wanting the EU involved with negotiations and wanting the US to monitor the ceasefire (occupy Ukraine)

Mr. Putin has been briefed on the letter and reiterated that Mr. Zelenskyy is welcome to attend peace negotiations in Moscow at any time.

Mr. Putin, for his part, rejected the participation of EU officials in negotiations, arguing that countries involved in supplying weapons to Ukraine cannot be neutral (This includes the US)

President Trump expressed general support for the idea of direct talks between the two leaders, calling them both “very good people.” He also reiterated that Ukraine could not have withstood Russia’s advance without U.S. support.

“Without our military and our equipment, Ukraine would not be able to continue the fight today. Without the equipment that I provided them, Ukraine would not have lasted even a day or two,” Mr. Trump said.

Like I said, PR/Propaganda stunt- This was clearly not a serious offer

The Iran war and Hormuz disruption have turbocharged U.S. LNG exports, giving Washington a major short-term energy dominance boost as Asia and Europe scramble for alternative supply.
China, however, enters the crisis from a position of greater energy resilience after years of investment in domestic production.
The U.S. still has a major long-term opportunity, but sustaining dominance will require turning crisis-driven demand into lasting partnerships

*Oil Prices fall on hope for US Iran Ceasefire

We wonder why it is we are unhealthy? Our fertilizer is derived from gas (Thinking about Gary, here)

The war in Iran has done more than disrupt global hydrocarbon markets—it has quietly set off a crisis in the fertilizers derived from natural gas that feed the world.

The virtual standstill in marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also taken 50 percent of the world’s traded sulfur and 36 percent of the world’s traded urea off the market, all essential components of fertilizers that sustain global food production. The result is a cascading supply crisis—spanning natural gas, ammonia, urea, sulfur, and phosphates—that threatens food security worldwide and that the United States has a limited but real window to address.

*Gold recovers, for now

*Ukraine attacks– Zaporizhzhia Power Plant

They said they didn’t but they did. It’s always been them attacking the plant

IAEA issues Ukraine nuclear plant warning after Russia alleges Zaporizhzhia attack

“The IAEA has been informed by the ZNPP that a drone today struck a turbine building at the site, reportedly causing a hole in its wall,” the agency said in its statement.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, the statement added, “expresses serious concern about the reported incident which would endanger both the seven indispensable pillars for ensuring nuclear safety during the conflict as well as the five concrete principles to protect the ZNPP, which clearly state that ‘there should be no attack of any kind from or against’ the plant.”

*Ukraine strikes Russia

Ukrainian drones struck targets across several Russian regions overnight, including an oil pipeline pumping station, a refinery and a fuel depot, Russian and Ukrainian authorities said on Sunday, in an escalating campaign of strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s General Staff said it had struck the Saratov oil refinery on the Volga river, causing a large fire. Saratov regional governor Roman Busargin said on Telegram that “civil infrastructure” had been damaged in the strike, but gave no more details.

Some excerpts included below;

Russia controls a large swath of Ukrainian territory, and Kyiv has little chance of dislodging it, as Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive in 2023 demonstrated. To be sure, recent Russian gains have come very slowly and at significant cost; over the last three years, Russia has taken a mere one percent of additional Ukrainian territory. But that does not change the reality that Russia now holds almost a fifth of the land within Ukraine’s 1991 borders—or that Russia’s greater resources and population mean that Moscow can fight on for years to come. Overcoming those Russian advantages and clawing back lost land on the battlefield would require time and investment that Ukraine doesn’t have. Current circumstances are therefore pushing Kyiv toward a compromise peace—one that will necessarily include the surrender of Ukrainian territory.

I’m not going to address the casualty counts- because the author understands they are likely not accurate

…. the war is depleting a greater proportion of its manpower. Ukraine’s population today is just under 36 million, which is about 26 percent of Russia’s population of 140 million. Ukraine has just under 9.5 million men between the ages of 25 and 54, and it has lost between one and two percent of that cohort.For Russia, which has a little over 30.2 million men in the same age group, somewhat higher losses account for just 0.5 to 0.7 percent of the total. Ultimately, Russia, with its much larger population, can sustain larger total losses than Ukraine can.Moreover, Russia is fighting mostly with contract soldiers—people who have volunteered—and keeping conscripts away from the front. The result is more motivated Russian soldiers. So far, Moscow is not having much trouble meeting recruitment needs.

Ukraine, in contrast, relies heavily on conscription. Recent recruitment shortfalls and desertions have prompted increasingly draconian efforts to meet conscription a goal of 30,000 men per month. These include “busification,” the practice of grabbing men off the street and taking them in minivans to the local recruitment office. In addition to being unpopular, harsh methods are netting mostly older, less healthy, and clearly unwilling soldiers, many of whom desert at the first opportunity. Those who remain contribute little to the war effort.

When it comes to major weapons systems, Ukraine is outgunned across the board. As of 2025, Russia’s tanks outnumbered Ukraine’s at a ratio of nearly five to one.

Russia had more than three times as many infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers as Ukraine. It had 670 pieces of towed artillery to Ukraine’s 543. It had five times as much mobile artillery, nearly ten times as many multiple launch rocket systems, and nearly five times as many mortars. Russia had 163 combat aircraft; Ukraine had 66. Although Russia’s huge advantage rests, in part, on older, stored equipment, much of the Western equipment sent to Ukraine is also old, coming from partner countries’ stockpiles. But even excluding stored equipment, in most categories, Russia’s stocks are at least double Ukraine’s.

Economic power is foundational to military power, and Russia has an advantage there, too. Russia’s 2024 GDP (measured by purchasing power parity) was almost $7 trillion. Ukraine’s, in contrast, was almost $657 billion, less than ten percent of Russia’s. Nominal measures show the same substantial gap. Spending around seven percent of GDP, Russia can allocate $484 billion to defense. Even if Ukraine spends 30 percent of its GDP, it will be able to muster a defense budget of only $197 billion, less than half of Russia’s.

Admittedly, this figure underestimates Ukraine’s long-term military capacity because it excludes the substantial financial and in-kind assistance the country has received from western Europe and until recently (???) the United States. But Ukraine is more dependent on foreign partners than Russia is. Russia has a large indigenous defense industry and massive military stockpiles, although it, too, has come to rely to some extent on allies, including China and North Korea. Russia may not have all the cards, but it has big battalions and deep pockets.

Rampant corruption has undermined all aspects of Ukraine’s war effort.

Yet there can be little doubt that Russia can achieve more limited aims by force of arms. Roughly 2,866 square miles of Donetsk remain under Kyiv’s control. If Russian forces continue at last year’s rate of advance, they could take it in a year and a half, a reasonable time frame. They may also grab more chunks of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia. Doing so would cost Russia additional blood and treasure, to be sure, but it would impose greater relative costs on Ukraine, which Kyiv can ill afford.

The Ukrainians and their allies must now ask themselves what another year of war will achieve and at what price

Much more at the link included.

Just some food for thought.

For weeks the question animating the Washington D.C. commentariat has been this: When will President Donald Trump make good on his threat and launch a second round of airstrikes on Iran? So far at least, the answer is “not yet.”

Many explanations for Trump’s surprising (but very welcome) restraint have emerged. Among the most troubling, however, is that it is a lack of the necessary munitions, and in particular air defense interceptors, that is giving Trump second thoughts. “The missile defense cupboard is bare,” one report concludes based on interviews with current and former U.S. defense officials.

The idea of the US weapons cupboard being bare doesn’t hurt my feelings in the least. Far from it. It gives me hope that the US won’t launch an, utterly insane, completely unnecessary war against Iran.

Even those who hope Trump chooses to avoid military action in Iran altogether should be taken aback to hear that eight months after the last extended U.S. military campaign ended (the defense of Israel during the 12-day war and Operation Midnight Hammer), American missile defense arsenals could still be in such rough shape.

To be sure, slow production timelines and the deep materiel debt mean that any effort to fully restore U.S. stockpiles to their pre-2022 level will take time. But eight months should be sufficient to return stocks of some types of defense interceptors to less critical levels. If the missile defense cupboard is truly still bare, however, something else must be going on.

That something else, it turns out, is Ukraine.

Although President Trump and his advisers are quick to argue that the United States is no longer paying for the military aid supporting Ukraine’s ongoing war, (they would be lying) this is only one piece of a larger story. In fact, the United States is still sending billions in weapons to Ukraine, often diverting new weapons intended for the U.S. military directly to Ukraine instead. The implications of this reality are far-reaching — for U.S. military readiness, the Pentagon’s ability to respond in case of a real threat to U.S. interests, and diplomatic efforts to end the war.

To understand the scope of the continuing U.S. commitment to Ukraine, we need to look closer. There are two primary channels through which U.S. weapons continue to make their way to Ukraine instead of into U.S. military arsenals.

For starters, there is the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which the Trump administration tried to cut out of its most recent budget, before Congress saved it. The $400 million in aid allocated for 2026, however, is a small piece of resources currently in this aid pipeline. Something on the order of $19 billion in outstanding orders, contracts signed under the Biden administration, have yet to make it to Ukraine. This new production will flow into Kyiv and to Ukraine’s frontline over the course of 2026 and 2027. Among the weapons included are air defense interceptors as well as other types of valuable munitions, GMLRS and 155mm shells.

This money was appropriated before Trump came into office, so this is not new spending. But the orders themselves are filled from the same production lines as the ones that would go to replenish the U.S. military’s own stockpiles. In effect, Ukraine’s defense needs compete with those of the U.S. military for scarce U.S. defense industrial capacity.

The second way that Washington continues to arm Ukraine at the expense of production that might go to the U.S. military is through the PURL program. Promoted as a mechanism to force Europeans to pick up the bill for arming Ukraine, the program does not directly involve U.S. taxpayer funds. Instead, European countries buy new U.S. weapons that then go to Ukraine.

We talked about the PURL program last year

So far, NATO has pledged over $4 billion in funds for PURL and two $500 million shipments have already been sent through the program, which expects to grow to $15 billion in 2026. PURL has been heavily used for specific types of weapons, including especially air defense and munitions of all kinds. Reports suggest that as much as 75 percent of Patriot missiles used in Ukraine (and 90 percent of all air defense) comes through this mechanism. Reports say two additional packages (via Canada and Germany) at $500 million a piece were being readied, and more were being coordinated by the U.S., at the end of 2025.

PURL sounds good on the surface, since it shifts the cost of arming Ukraine from the United States to Europe. However, once again, the U.S. military likely comes out on the losing end.

What Europeans actually purchase through PURL is prioritized spots in the manufacturing queue, near the front of the line. This allows Europe, and by association Ukraine, to again skip the wait, receiving new missiles and military hardware originally intended for other buyers right away. The defense contractor gets money, but orders for the original buyers, including most likely the Pentagon, are necessarily delayed in part or in full. In some cases, PURL buys weapons directly out of U.S. stocks, meaning that PURL not only slows replenishment of U.S. arsenals, but drains them further.

On one hand, yeah to the idea of the US not having enough weapons to launch a full scale attack on Iran. On the other hand.. would Usrael resort to nuclear weapons??- Which causes me concern

I do wish my lurkers would let their thoughts be known?