Link

In recent days, Ukrainian Armed Forces have damaged three key bridges at land entry points into Russian-occupied Crimea.

In the early hours of June 11, Ukraine’s Defense Forces conducted an airstrike on the bridge spanning the Crimea Canal in Armyansk, currently under Russian occupation. 

Residents of Armyansk reported hearing explosions at around 1:57 a.m., with reports confirming a strike on the road bridge, which has since sustained damage. Initial information also indicates that another bridge, located at the entrance to Krasnoperekopsk from Armyansk, was damaged as well.

Prior to this, on June 9 and 10, Ukrainian forces launched missile strikes on the Chonhar Bridge and on another bridge connecting Russian-held Henichesk to the Arabat Spit. These actions have effectively rendered all major land entry bridges into annexed Crimea unusable.

Back in May, Ukraine’s Defense Forces began an operation aimed at isolating Russian troops on the occupied peninsula. As part of this campaign, missile and drone strikes have targeted bridges and key roadways connecting Russia-via Rostov-on-Don and Taganrog-to Crimea through other occupied cities such as Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol, and Dzhankoi.

The strategy to blockade Crimea’s land corridor appears to be working. The commander of Russia’s “Vostok” troop grouping has reportedly banned movement of military cargo along the Mariupol-Berdyansk-Melitopol-Simferopol route in occupied Ukrainian territory.

Ukrainian media is reporting on the work arounds

The first alternative route runs through the towns of Novooleksiivka, Askania-Nova, Chaplynka, and Myrne, from where vehicles can reach Armiansk.

The second detour option also begins in Novooleksiivka but then runs through Hromivka, Chaplynka, and Myrne, ending in Armiansk.

Both routes pass over the bridge from Myrne to Highway E97, which leads to Armiansk. This bridge was also under attack but likely sustained no significant damage.

Meanwhile, the Kerch Bridge, which connects the peninsula to Russian territory, remains operational, though traffic across it remains significantly restricted.

Strict restrictions on tonnage and vehicle types are in effect on the Kerch Bridge; in particular, electric vehicles are completely banned from using it.

That’s likely related to the explosive battery issue with EV’s.

Interesting information- quite contrary to western media presentation

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s remarks on relations with Azerbaijan, delivered on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, became one of Moscow’s most notable regional signals. The Russian leader not only offered an emphatically positive assessment of bilateral ties but also revealed that the two countries are holding talks on specific areas of cooperation, primarily in the energy sector, and announced a forthcoming meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

Putin spoke about Azerbaijan on June 4, 2026, during his traditional meeting with the heads of leading international news agencies at the Konstantinovsky Palace. Responding to a question from Vugar Aliyev, Chairman of the Board of AZERTAC, the Russian president described bilateral relations in distinctly positive terms.

“We have good relations with Azerbaijan. They have always been good and remain so, both in the economy and in the political sphere,” Putin said.

He placed particular emphasis on the role of President Ilham Aliyev, noting his efforts to give practical substance to the agreements on strategic cooperation between the two countries. Putin was referring to the Declaration on Allied Interaction signed by the two leaders in Moscow on February 22, 2022.

The document covers a broad range of areas, including political dialogue, security, trade, energy, transport and humanitarian cooperation. Putin’s reference to this framework is significant. Moscow is thereby signalling that it continues to view relations with Baku not as a collection of separate economic contacts, but as a structured interstate partnership. This is particularly important against the backdrop of complex regional developments, growing competition over transport routes and the continued transformation of the economic architecture of Eurasia.

The most intriguing part of the Russian leader’s remarks concerned energy. Putin said that Russia and Azerbaijan were conducting negotiations “across a whole range of specific areas,” although he considered it premature to disclose the details.

“This primarily concerns energy. We will meet with President Aliyev and will certainly discuss all of this,” he said.

Such wording suggests that the two sides are discussing not merely general prospects for cooperation, but practical projects that may require political approval at the highest level. At the same time, no exact date has yet been announced for the upcoming meeting between Aliyev and Putin.

Energy dialogue between Azerbaijan and Russia is multilayered. Both countries are major producers and exporters of hydrocarbons, yet their interests are not limited to competition. Baku and Moscow cooperate in the oil and gas sector, electricity, energy exchanges and regional infrastructure. Russian companies operate in the Azerbaijani market, while SOCAR has longstanding experience of working with Russian partners.

Potential new agreements could relate to energy supplies and swap operations, the processing of raw materials, the use of energy infrastructure or the balancing of regional markets. However, until official information is released, any more specific assumptions should be regarded solely as possible scenarios.

A substantial part of the Russian president’s response focused on economic relations. Putin said that bilateral trade was growing and that additional opportunities were emerging for mutual supplies. The latest full-year figures indeed confirm the long-term expansion of trade.
According to Azerbaijan’s State Customs Committee, trade turnover between Azerbaijan and Russia reached $4.92 billion in 2025, an increase of 2.5% compared with $4.799 billion in 2024. Russia remained among Azerbaijan’s three largest trading partners, behind only Italy and Türkiye

So, Israel… not a big trading partner with Azerbaijan?

Azerbaijani exports to Russia reached $1.184 billion in 2025, rising by 0.5%. Imports of Russian goods increased by 3.2% to $3.736 billion. Bilateral trade therefore continues to show a significant imbalance in favour of Russian supplies. For every dollar of Azerbaijani exports to Russia, more than three dollars’ worth of goods were imported from Russia

The use of national currencies is also expanding. According to figures presented in April at a meeting of the intergovernmental commission, the Russian ruble accounted for 42% of settlements for Azerbaijani exports and 83% of payments for imports from Russia. This reduces dependence on third-country currencies and simplifies transactions amid a changing international financial environment.

The International North-South Transport Corridor remains the key project in this regard. Its western branch runs through Russia and Azerbaijan toward Iran. The corridor’s full-scale operation requires the completion of missing infrastructure sections, the modernisation of railways and border crossings, and the improvement of customs procedures. For Russia, the route represents an alternative gateway to southern markets, while for Azerbaijan it offers an opportunity to strengthen its position as one of Eurasia’s principal transport hubs.

Read the rest at the link provided

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed deeper peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a combative open letter on Thursday

Mr. Zelenskyy floated direct negotiations hosted by Switzerland, Turkey or “countries of the Arab world,” adding that talks could not take place in Moscow or Kyiv.

Mr. Zelenskyy said, is prepared to agree to a complete ceasefire for the duration of negotiations and insisted that Kyiv is not looking for a “permanent war.”

However, he insisted that Ukraine would not negotiate with Russia without the European Union leaders present and hoped that the U.S. would serve as monitors of a potential ceasefire.

“If you do not personally come to the conclusion that it is time to end this war, Ukraine will continue fighting for its existence. We will have those who support us,” he wrote. “It is a fact of Russian history that you know well: When Russia grows tired, change comes. We can work toward that fatigue. You can stop your war.”

So, Zelensky does some historical rewriting.. You can stop your war? Dictating terms for the meeting? Wanting the EU involved with negotiations and wanting the US to monitor the ceasefire (occupy Ukraine)

Mr. Putin has been briefed on the letter and reiterated that Mr. Zelenskyy is welcome to attend peace negotiations in Moscow at any time.

Mr. Putin, for his part, rejected the participation of EU officials in negotiations, arguing that countries involved in supplying weapons to Ukraine cannot be neutral (This includes the US)

President Trump expressed general support for the idea of direct talks between the two leaders, calling them both “very good people.” He also reiterated that Ukraine could not have withstood Russia’s advance without U.S. support.

“Without our military and our equipment, Ukraine would not be able to continue the fight today. Without the equipment that I provided them, Ukraine would not have lasted even a day or two,” Mr. Trump said.

Like I said, PR/Propaganda stunt- This was clearly not a serious offer

The Iran war and Hormuz disruption have turbocharged U.S. LNG exports, giving Washington a major short-term energy dominance boost as Asia and Europe scramble for alternative supply.
China, however, enters the crisis from a position of greater energy resilience after years of investment in domestic production.
The U.S. still has a major long-term opportunity, but sustaining dominance will require turning crisis-driven demand into lasting partnerships

*Oil Prices fall on hope for US Iran Ceasefire

We wonder why it is we are unhealthy? Our fertilizer is derived from gas (Thinking about Gary, here)

The war in Iran has done more than disrupt global hydrocarbon markets—it has quietly set off a crisis in the fertilizers derived from natural gas that feed the world.

The virtual standstill in marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also taken 50 percent of the world’s traded sulfur and 36 percent of the world’s traded urea off the market, all essential components of fertilizers that sustain global food production. The result is a cascading supply crisis—spanning natural gas, ammonia, urea, sulfur, and phosphates—that threatens food security worldwide and that the United States has a limited but real window to address.

*Gold recovers, for now

*Ukraine attacks– Zaporizhzhia Power Plant

They said they didn’t but they did. It’s always been them attacking the plant

IAEA issues Ukraine nuclear plant warning after Russia alleges Zaporizhzhia attack

“The IAEA has been informed by the ZNPP that a drone today struck a turbine building at the site, reportedly causing a hole in its wall,” the agency said in its statement.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, the statement added, “expresses serious concern about the reported incident which would endanger both the seven indispensable pillars for ensuring nuclear safety during the conflict as well as the five concrete principles to protect the ZNPP, which clearly state that ‘there should be no attack of any kind from or against’ the plant.”

*Ukraine strikes Russia

Ukrainian drones struck targets across several Russian regions overnight, including an oil pipeline pumping station, a refinery and a fuel depot, Russian and Ukrainian authorities said on Sunday, in an escalating campaign of strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s General Staff said it had struck the Saratov oil refinery on the Volga river, causing a large fire. Saratov regional governor Roman Busargin said on Telegram that “civil infrastructure” had been damaged in the strike, but gave no more details.

Washington Times- this feels like stock market manipulation

But, who knows?

The U.S. and Iran are expected to announce the finalization of a draft proposal of a peace deal to end the fighting on all fronts by Sunday afternoon, a source close to the negotiations told The Washington Times.

A draft proposal was agreed to early Saturday and expected to be announced within 24 hours, the source said.

Top negotiators, including Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalifbaf, Vice President J.D. Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, have approved the draft.

The draft version of the peace deal has been sent to leaders of both nations for final approval.

If successful, the deal would transform what has been a fragile six-week truce into a permanent peace, even as Mr. Trump has hinted fresh strikes would be possible.

_ Issued a couple of hours ago…US Embassy Kiev

Location: Ukraine, all districts

Event:The U.S. embassy in Kyiv has received information concerning a potentially significant air attack that may occur at any time over the next 24 hours. The embassy, as always, recommends U.S. citizens be prepared to immediately shelter in the event an air alert is announced.

The intentional strike on the school in Russian territory…. May be a factor in the warnings issued by the US Embassy

At least 18 people have been killed and dozens more – most of them students – have been injured in what President Vladimir Putin has described as a deliberate Ukrainian “terrorist attack” on a school dormitory in Russia’s Lugansk People’s Republic.

The attack on the main academic building and dormitory of the Starobelsk Professional College, which teaches students aged 14 to 18, was carried out in three waves, with 16 drones launched at the same target by the “neo-Nazi regime in Kiev,” according to Putin

Undoubtedly Starlink played a role..

*Inflation risk for this year

“Before the war, before we got the oil shock, I’ve been on the optimistic side of the rate — I believed rates could come down even multiple times in 2026,” Goolsbee said.

The energy shock “complicates that picture for me — that if we’re truly not going to see any improvement in inflation, to me that starts pushing these decisions off to 2027 at the earliest,” he said.

*Two US Military planes were shot down in separate incidents

Two US military planes were shot down in separate incidents on Friday, and while one crew member was rescued in Iran, the whereabouts of at least one other was unknown.

The incidents marked a dramatic escalation since the war began nearly five weeks ago.

It was the first time US aircraft had been downed in the conflict and came just two days after President Donald Trump said in a national address that the US has “beaten and completely decimated Iran” and was “going to finish the job, and we’re going to finish it very fast”.

*Iran rejects US proposal for a 48-hour ceasefire

Tehran: No truce in sight as long as US military operations continue

*Simple flying.com- A-10 Thunderbolt down- F-15 Strike eagle down

Here is a fact-based summary of the story contents:

The United States Air Force (USAF) lost an A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft near the Strait of Hormuz, in an incident that occurred almost simultaneously with the shootdown of an F-15E Strike Eagle over Iran. The crash occurred amid a high-risk combat search and rescue operation conducted by the US Air Force for the downed F-15E crew.

According to The New York Times, US officials said the A-10 crash occurred around the same time an F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down over Iran. According to initial reports, the A-10 went down over waters near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important waterways. US officials confirmed that the pilot ejected and was recovered safely. However, the cause of the crash remains unclear, and it is not yet known whether the aircraft was shot down, suffered mechanical failure, or crashed after sustaining damage.

Trump expressed frustration over fighter jet downing

NBC News said that Trump complained about the coverage during an interview on Friday.

“In a brief phone interview, President Donald Trump refused to discuss the specifics of ongoing search and rescue efforts in Iran after an American jet was downed,” Garrett Haake wrote. “But he expressed frustration about some of the coverage of what is plainly an intense and sensitive rescue operation.”

Trump would rather lie

Iran hits Gulf refineries as the war wraps its 5th week

Blasts and sirens rang out across the Middle East from Iranian drones and missiles since overnight. Kuwait’s largest oil refinery was hit, setting some of its units on fire

The Brent crude oil price went up by almost 8% on Friday to around $109 per barrel. The war has also pushed up the cost of gas and fertilizer.

Russia pounds Ukraine with hundreds of drones, dozens of missiles

Hundreds of Shahed combat drones and dozens of missiles against our cities and towns,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote in a social media post after a telephone conversation with Pope Leo XIV. Zelenskyy said this was Russia’s response to his offer of a ceasefire over Easter, though churches in Ukraine, as in Russia, mark Easter next week, in line with the Orthodox calendar, on April 12. At least one person was killed and another injured in the area surrounding Kyiv. The attacks, carried out in broad daylight, also caused power cuts in the Ukrainian capital that is home to 3 million, plus in other areas, local electricity suppliers said. Earlier, the Ukrainian Air Force said the Russian military deployed more than 500 drones and 37 missiles overnight and during the day. Most of the missiles were intercepted in time, though there were strikes at 20 locations.

I think it was more than 500 drones..

Lastly;

Michael Hudson: World Will Not Be the Same After the Iran War

**Good read- War, Inflation, and the Hidden Costs of Closing the World’s Most Important Strait

The article actually talks about 2 chokepoints, excerpts below, read entirely at link above

I want to talk about the thing nobody in Washington seems willing to say out loud, which is that the cost of this war is going to show up at your kitchen table before it shows up in any congressional budget hearing.

But I’m not writing about the war. Not really. I’m writing about what the war is doing to the invisible infrastructure of the global economy, the shipping lanes and insurance markets, fertilizer contracts, and airfreight corridors that nobody thinks about until they break.

Because they’re breaking right now, in ways that will take months to repair, and the people who will pay for it aren’t the ones making the decisions.

The Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Through that gap moves roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil, about 20.9 million barrels per day. It also carries a significant share of global liquefied natural gas, a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer exports, and a meaningful slice of container traffic linking Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

It is, as of right now, essentially closed.

Not formally. Nobody has dropped a chain across it. But Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the waterway shut to allied shipping.

Protection and indemnity insurers pulled coverage. War-risk premiums, which had already tripled in the days before the strikes, became irrelevant once insurers stopped offering any coverage at all.

And without insurance, no shipowner will send a vessel through. It’s not the missiles that closed the Strait. It’s the actuarial tables.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from an average of 138 vessels per day to roughly two.

One hundred and fifty tankers are sitting at anchor in open Gulf waters.

One hundred and forty-seven container ships are trapped inside the Persian Gulf, unable to exit.

Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, every major container line, has suspended operations. Maersk paused two key services linking the Middle East to Asia and Europe and halted all trans-Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Houthis, who had eased up on Red Sea attacks in recent months, announced they’re resuming. So now both chokepoints are closed, and the only way around is the Cape of Good Hope, which adds 10 to 14 days to every voyage.

This is what a dual chokepoint crisis looks like. It’s never happened before in modern container shipping.

Let me put this in dollars.

LNG shipping charter rates went from $40,000 a day to $300,000 a day in less than a week. That’s a 650 percent increase.

Asian spot LNG prices doubled.

Qatar halted all LNG production at its Ras Laffan hub, the largest LNG export complex on Earth, after Iranian drones hit facilities there, and declared force majeure on its contracts.

Qatar and the UAE together supply roughly 20 percent of the world’s LNG, and 85 percent of Qatar’s exports go to Asia.

The Oil Shock You Were Promised You’d Never See Again

Crude oil has risen roughly 50 percent since February 28. That’s not a typo.

Brent was trading around $70 a barrel before the strikes. It touched $119 overnight. (it has since come down)

WTI has moved from $67 to over $115.

Iraq, the second-largest OPEC producer, has seen output from its three main southern oilfields collapse by 70 percent, from 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million, because there’s nowhere to put the oil.

Kuwait has cut production preemptively. The UAE is “carefully managing offshore production levels.”

Everyone in the Gulf is producing less because the tankers can’t get out.

Meanwhile, Israel struck a major fuel storage facility near Tehran over the weekend.

Saudi Arabia’s 550,000-barrel-per-day Ras Tanura refinery has been hit twice. Drones even targeted Saudi Aramco’s million-barrel-per-day Shaybah oil field.

We are watching the physical destruction of energy infrastructure in real time, which means this isn’t just a shipping problem. Even when the Strait reopens, some of this supply isn’t coming back quickly.

Did Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu consider these realities before striking Iran? Or was their hubris so great, they didn’t consider the possibility that Iran wouldn’t fall immediately?

Did Trump consider he would end up having to ease Russian oil sanctions in an attempt to try to keep global oil prices down?

**Trump eases Russian oil sanctions as Iran war sends prices spiking

The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil, a boost to the Kremlin as Washington tries to contain energy prices sent soaring by the American-Israeli assault on Iran.

The announcement failed to immediately calm oil prices, which have spiraled since Tehran effectively closed the vital Strait of Hormuz oil chokepoint and began attacking energy facilities across neighboring Gulf countries.

The international benchmark of Brent crude rose again overnight, sitting just above $100 a barrel as of 6 a.m. ET. Markets worldwide slipped, with U.S. stock futures down following slumps across Asia and Europe.

Announcing the move Thursday evening, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that until April 11 countries would be able to buy Russian oil that was already at sea.

That moves seems really at odds with the US sanctions regime.

**Europe Negotiating With Iran For Oil Access Through Strait—As U.S. Still Blocked—Report Says

Specifically France and Italy.

France and Italy have reportedly opened talks with Iranian officials in hopes of negotiating a deal to allow their vessels through the Strait of Hormuz after a weekslong standstill in the shipping lane has wrecked havoc on global energy markets.

**Drone attacks strike Italian and French military bases in Iraq amid Iran’s regional retaliation

Italy and France have maintained occupying forces in the Kurdish territory of Iraq for decades now

In a surge of violence linked to Iran’s broader retaliation against U.S. and Israeli strikes, drone attacks targeted military bases hosting Italian and French forces in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region on Thursday.

While the strike on the Italian base at Camp Singara in Erbil caused only material damage with no casualties, a subsequent attack in the nearby Makhmour area wounded six French soldiers and killed one officer, escalating concerns over the safety of international coalitions in the region.

The Italian incident occurred overnight on 11-12 March, when a drone struck Camp Singara, a facility near Erbil International Airport that hosts 141 Italian soldiers as part of Operation Prima Parthica. This mission, integrated with the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition and NATO’s Iraq operations, focuses on training, assisting, and supporting Kurdish Peshmerga and Iraqi forces, alongside logistics and protection duties

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto confirmed via X no victims or injuries among military personnel, though the attack caused material damage, including the destruction of a logistics vehicle.

***U.S. to send 2,500 Marines to Middle East as Iran, Israel continue to exchange attacks

Meanwhile, a U.S. official told The Associated Press that roughly 2,500 Marines and at least one amphibious assault ship were headed for the Middle East in a major addition of troops.

The US military has seen more casualties..

Did Trump and Bibi even consider any alternative scenarios, costs, damage to the global economy and worse before launching this attack? The fact they have made the offer to Russia to ease up on sanctioned oil, suggests, they didn’t consider all possibilities.

Thoughts, please?

1- Trump and Bibi are going to cause a global economic catastrophe. If they didn’t think through what their attack on Iran was going to lead to they should have. Thinking of order out of chaos and the make America great again has me entertaining the idea that chaos was what they were after. They likely assumed Iran would back down like last time and Iran didn’t. Now things are getting out of hand. Trump is all over the place. Contradictory and bizarre claims. Including one of an impended Iranian drone attack on California. Alongside reports of drones stolen in November 2025
Do you all recall some time back there were all these reports about drones in the sky- December 2024- Leading to a bit of a hysteria?
And then no more reports- what was that all about, really?

Keep in mind as mentioned in a previous post- The US reverse engineered an Iranian drone

2- There have been a number of alleged attacks in the area of conflict that originated elsewhere in my opinion. Two in particular strike me as false flags. Azerbaijan and Turkey, were allegedly fired upon by Iran. Iran denies targeting these two nations. I believe them. Iran has been quite open about who their targets are and why. It’s been US military assets in other countries and Israel- Sure, Turkey has NATO bases. And yet, still I do not believe Iran has targeted Turkey. Those two nation have shared common interests and concerns. They have cooperated on many things. Turkey has not allowed the use of their airspace for the US to attack Iran. Same as when the US attacked Iraq. Many Azeris live in Iran- there’s just no reason I can think of for Iran to attack Azerbaijan. Nothing.

Interesting reads..

*Rawstory

The Pentagon has confirmed an Iranian strike on a radar system at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan valued at $300 million, and Iran’s response – called Operation True Promise 4 – has surgically focused on targeting the detection systems that underpin the entire U.S. defensive architecture in West Asia, reported Monthly Review Online.

“The AN-TPY/2 radar is essentially the heart of the THAAD battery, enabling the launch of interceptor missiles and contributing to a networked air defense picture,” munitions specialist N.R. Jenzen-Jones told CNN last week. “It also happens to be an incredibly expensive piece of kit.”

*First week of Usrael attack on Iran has cost the US..

Over 11 billion dollars.

*Iran cannot accept US calls for negotiations while it keeps on committing war crimes

Iran said Thursday it cannot accept US calls for negotiations or ceasefire while “war crimes” are being committed against the country.

“We cannot accept that the enemy sometimes speaks about dialogue and negotiations, while at the same time we face war crimes,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in statements carried by the state news agency IRNA.

He said Iran had faced a similar situation for the second time in less than a year, adding that Tehran had been engaged in a diplomatic process and negotiated seriously and “in good faith.”

Baghaei said the talks appeared close to producing an agreement, citing the latest round of US-Iran nuclear talks that concluded in Geneva under Omani mediation in late February, where both sides had described the atmosphere as serious and constructive.

“But the US and Israel carried out military attacks while negotiations were underway,” he added.

“We were in the middle of negotiations and they committed this crime,” he said.

The spokesman said Iran cannot ignore such experiences or accept calls for dialogue while attacks continue.

*Iran Lists Three Conditions To End War With US And Israel

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the conflict could only end if Iran’s rights are recognised, reparations are paid for damages caused during the war, and international guarantees are provided to prevent future aggression against the country.

In a message posted on social media platform X, Pezeshkian said he had reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region while speaking with leaders of Russia and Pakistan. However, he maintained that the war—triggered by what he described as actions by the “Zionist regime” and the United States—could only end if the three conditions were met.

“The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime and the US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression,” Pezeshkian said.

Trump had said the US navy was going to escort ships through the Straits of Hormuz

No.

*US Navy not ready: Team Trump’s U-turn on oil tanker escort through Hormuz

In a U-turn from his earlier claim, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US Navy is not yet ready to escort commercial oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most sensitive maritime choke points for global energy supplies.

Israel looks to as if it’s being hit hard- Though there seems to be a media blackout on that topic. Clearly they are a-ok with the losses, as it is their war of choice

*Iran is reporting civilian casualties over 1300. I expect this to climb because the US is carpet bombing Tehran/ Iran

*The United States and Israel are bombing Iran’s critical energy and civilian infrastructure, Marks New Escalation In War

More interesting reads

*US-Sanctioned Vessels Shipped $11 Billion of Russian Oil Last Year

*Russia and India see potential in Shanghai cooperation/BRICS to ease tensions

Russia, India see potential Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS roles in easing US-Israel-Iran tensions

*Russia shouldn’t get too excited about Trump’s proposal to reduce sanction

The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has, unsurprisingly, destabilized global energy markets. Oil prices shot up by around 30% to $119 per barrel earlier this week, marking a four-year high that is starkly felt by Washington’s alliance network in Europe and parts of Asia.

The spike in oil prices stems from supply shortages and logistics constraints that, even if the U.S. takes steps to guarantee partial traffic through the blockaded Hormuz Strait, will likely persist throughout the duration of the war.

The White House, in an attempt to ameliorate global energy pressures stemming from the war, has temporarily lifted some sanctions on Russian oil. These steps include a recent decision to approve a 30-day waiver on Indian purchases of Russian oil; additional measures in this vein may be expected following a phone call between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday.

* The US can’t be trusted to negotiate in good faith- CLEARLY via https://archive.ph/NRc52

Fyodor Lukyanov, a prominent Russian foreign policy analyst who advises the Kremlin and Russian diplomats, told a Russian radio station that the U.S.-Israeli campaign in Iran “marks a transition to a different type of international relations” where “at any moment, you can move from being a person sitting across the table to becoming a victim.”
Lukyanov added, “How can negotiations even be conducted in such a situation, if you know that at any moment the other side may shift to a direct personal attack against you?
Russia, like Iran, has sent officials to meet Witkoff and Kushner in Geneva in recent weeks. And Russia, like Iran, knows that it is viewed as a threat by the United States and NATO allies.

You can read to your hearts content! Thanks for stopping by!

Some excerpts included below;

Russia controls a large swath of Ukrainian territory, and Kyiv has little chance of dislodging it, as Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive in 2023 demonstrated. To be sure, recent Russian gains have come very slowly and at significant cost; over the last three years, Russia has taken a mere one percent of additional Ukrainian territory. But that does not change the reality that Russia now holds almost a fifth of the land within Ukraine’s 1991 borders—or that Russia’s greater resources and population mean that Moscow can fight on for years to come. Overcoming those Russian advantages and clawing back lost land on the battlefield would require time and investment that Ukraine doesn’t have. Current circumstances are therefore pushing Kyiv toward a compromise peace—one that will necessarily include the surrender of Ukrainian territory.

I’m not going to address the casualty counts- because the author understands they are likely not accurate

…. the war is depleting a greater proportion of its manpower. Ukraine’s population today is just under 36 million, which is about 26 percent of Russia’s population of 140 million. Ukraine has just under 9.5 million men between the ages of 25 and 54, and it has lost between one and two percent of that cohort.For Russia, which has a little over 30.2 million men in the same age group, somewhat higher losses account for just 0.5 to 0.7 percent of the total. Ultimately, Russia, with its much larger population, can sustain larger total losses than Ukraine can.Moreover, Russia is fighting mostly with contract soldiers—people who have volunteered—and keeping conscripts away from the front. The result is more motivated Russian soldiers. So far, Moscow is not having much trouble meeting recruitment needs.

Ukraine, in contrast, relies heavily on conscription. Recent recruitment shortfalls and desertions have prompted increasingly draconian efforts to meet conscription a goal of 30,000 men per month. These include “busification,” the practice of grabbing men off the street and taking them in minivans to the local recruitment office. In addition to being unpopular, harsh methods are netting mostly older, less healthy, and clearly unwilling soldiers, many of whom desert at the first opportunity. Those who remain contribute little to the war effort.

When it comes to major weapons systems, Ukraine is outgunned across the board. As of 2025, Russia’s tanks outnumbered Ukraine’s at a ratio of nearly five to one.

Russia had more than three times as many infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers as Ukraine. It had 670 pieces of towed artillery to Ukraine’s 543. It had five times as much mobile artillery, nearly ten times as many multiple launch rocket systems, and nearly five times as many mortars. Russia had 163 combat aircraft; Ukraine had 66. Although Russia’s huge advantage rests, in part, on older, stored equipment, much of the Western equipment sent to Ukraine is also old, coming from partner countries’ stockpiles. But even excluding stored equipment, in most categories, Russia’s stocks are at least double Ukraine’s.

Economic power is foundational to military power, and Russia has an advantage there, too. Russia’s 2024 GDP (measured by purchasing power parity) was almost $7 trillion. Ukraine’s, in contrast, was almost $657 billion, less than ten percent of Russia’s. Nominal measures show the same substantial gap. Spending around seven percent of GDP, Russia can allocate $484 billion to defense. Even if Ukraine spends 30 percent of its GDP, it will be able to muster a defense budget of only $197 billion, less than half of Russia’s.

Admittedly, this figure underestimates Ukraine’s long-term military capacity because it excludes the substantial financial and in-kind assistance the country has received from western Europe and until recently (???) the United States. But Ukraine is more dependent on foreign partners than Russia is. Russia has a large indigenous defense industry and massive military stockpiles, although it, too, has come to rely to some extent on allies, including China and North Korea. Russia may not have all the cards, but it has big battalions and deep pockets.

Rampant corruption has undermined all aspects of Ukraine’s war effort.

Yet there can be little doubt that Russia can achieve more limited aims by force of arms. Roughly 2,866 square miles of Donetsk remain under Kyiv’s control. If Russian forces continue at last year’s rate of advance, they could take it in a year and a half, a reasonable time frame. They may also grab more chunks of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia. Doing so would cost Russia additional blood and treasure, to be sure, but it would impose greater relative costs on Ukraine, which Kyiv can ill afford.

The Ukrainians and their allies must now ask themselves what another year of war will achieve and at what price

Much more at the link included.

In his speech at the Munich Security Conference yesterday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not waste time mourning the end of the so-called “rules-based order” which has governed international relations for decades. (I question just how much the rules based order governed international relations). Instead, he celebrated it, branding that old order a foolish delusion and putting forward the Trump administration’s vision for what comes next: a future based on hard power, pursuit of national interests, and revitalised Western leadership. (This is work in process by the US return the globe to the unipolar world they dominated- after the fall of the USSR)

European leaders should not be reassured by Rubio’s gentle tone or his repeated appeals to the deep historical and cultural ties linking the United States with their continent, however. His speech was intended not as a love letter, but as an ultimatum. ( I didn’t get any love letter idea from Rubio) According to Rubio, Europe faces a choice. It can either align itself with Washington’s agenda in building a “new Western Century”, or it can go it alone and find itself on the receiving end of continued US pressure. ( So bullying, in plain talk) Whether Washington can make good on its threats is unclear, but the reality facing Europe should not be.
Rubio deserves credit for his honest and clear-eyed diagnosis of the mistakes made at the end of the Cold War, and his unsentimental acknowledgement that the old way of doing things no longer works. His speech departed from the consensus in important and productive ways, for instance, by discarding the democratic liberalism that has long been the foundation of the transatlantic relationship. He was right to call out the failure of institutions to address contemporary economic challenges and to fault Europe for leaving itself geopolitically vulnerable by outsourcing its security. ( I believe the US was fully behind making Europe geopolitically vulnerable- because it kept them subservient)

But the new world order Rubio called for looks remarkably like the one he criticised in at least one respect: it has a dominant America at its centre, ready to coerce allies and adversaries alike.

Yes…

Rubio’s speech did not throw out everything from the past. He was genuine in his hope that, for all its flaws, the transatlantic relationship could be sustained and restored — this time not with a focus on shared values and security threats, but on common culture, history, language, and religion.

The foundation of the transatlantic bond is different in Rubio’s narrative, but its purpose and utility for the United States is not. Donald Trump’s Washington still seeks American preeminence, and still hopes that Europe will sign up to support this project — as it has for decades — by strengthening itself militarily and economically, and backing the administration’s vision of the “new Western Century”.

But Rubio’s speech also contained an implicit threat. If Europe does not join this effort, America will go its own way, and the old continent will be left behind. Compliance, then, is the price of a continued transatlantic partnership.

Compliance– As it was previously, and is now, so it will continue. But, in my opinion, Europe would be better served by strengthening trade with Russia and China. The dominance of the US over Europe only served the US. Not Europe. That’s clear from the present day state of affairs in Europe.

Non-European leaders should be equally uncomfortable with Rubio’s speech. Decades of US primacy have been harmful for the world, due to America’s ready use of military power and exploitation of economic advantages. Yesterday’s speech promises more of the same, even if the rhetoric, rationales, and institutions enabling America’s pursuit of dominance change. Rubio’s vision is also a confrontational one, which pits a vaguely defined West against unnamed adversaries and rivals, not only in competition for resources and security but in an existential civilisational struggle as well.

There are two looming challenges facing the Trump administration as it works toward this desired future.

First, because this imagined new order retains the core characteristics of the old one, with the United States at the centre and the collective West locked in conflict with its rivals, it is not clear that this system will be any better at addressing today’s challenges, preventing fresh wars, or correcting the mistakes of the past.

Second, Trump’s coercive approach to building this new order may not work in an increasingly multipolar world. States in Europe and elsewhere now have many options, including the ability to form new balancing coalitions against the US which protect their interests.

At the same time, Washington’s power has declined in relative terms.

Rubio is right to proclaim the rules-based order dead, but by clinging to what remains of American hegemony, his vision for the future misses the mark. It risks leaving not Europe but the United States isolated and alone.

I think a very isolated US will be the outcome. This is already occurring & the US leadership understands that clearly. Hence MAGA?! Many citizens of the US and Canada, for that matter, do not grasp the world has changed. This is not the same world after WW2 or after the USSR fell.

That all said, the US will certainly make the planet a very dangerous place for humanity. Just my opinion

Chas Freeman: U.S. Restoring Empire & War On Eurasia