Call me pessimistic, while keeping in mind I do hope to be wrong.

Pay attention to what Netanyahu is saying..

Benjamin Netanyahu said that the first stage of the ceasefire deal was temporary, adding: “If we must return to fighting, we will do that in new, forceful ways.”

Netanyahu, who also said that Israel’s “campaign is not over yet”, added that both Donald Trump and Joe Biden back Israel’s “right to resume fighting if the second stage is fruitless”.

The Israeli prime minister’s comments on Saturday evening come as a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is set to take place on Sunday at 6.30 GMT.

As part of the deal, 33 of the 98 remaining Israeli hostages kidnapped by Hamas are expected to be freed in this phase, according to Reuters. In exchange, Israel will release approximately 2,000 Palestinians currently detained across multiple prisons.

We’re supposed to believe Trump’s pick for Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, was pivotal in making this happen

Trump had demanded a deal to release Israel’s hostages before he took his oath of office, and the man charged with making that happen was Steve Witkoff – a New York property developer confident that a long relationship with Trump could offset a lack of diplomatic experience

Witkoff, who is Jewish, made clear that would not be happening. Trump was in a hurry – and he wanted to get on with the mission.

Who are Mike Huckabee and Steve Witkoff

Huckabee is a dangerous crackpot, in my opinion.

Steven Witkoff

Steven Witkoff, who was named on Tuesday as the incoming administration’s Middle East envoy, raised a vast amount of money for Mr. Trump’s campaign — including from Jewish voters

When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel addressed Congress in July, Mr. Witkoff was in the audience.

When Biden claimed to stop the flow of US weapons to Israel, if they entered Rafah, but didn’t, Trump’s Pro Israel fundraising accelerated

“Every one of my friends started calling and asking, ‘What can I do for Donald Trump?’” Witkoff, a pro-Israel donor and fundraiser for Trump’s presidential campaign, told The Bulwark.

Witkoff and the Trump campaign had been waiting for these calls ever since October 7

“It was a notable shift,” Witkoff said. “I personally received and helped secure large Jewish donors over the last two weeks . . . and I’m not talking four-figure donations. I’m talking six-figure and seven-figure donations.”

I’m not a believer in the authenticity of this agreement or the bona fides of the US envoy, Israel will renege in very short order

This piece is from 8 years ago. Link via Archive.ph

It’s a good bit of background- Showing the covert cooperation between some of the GCC nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan alongside the US intelligence going back decades

Jan. 23, 2016

WASHINGTON — When President Obama secretly authorized the Central Intelligence Agency to begin arming Syria’s embattled rebels in 2013, the spy agency knew it would have a willing partner to help pay for the covert operation. It was the same partner the C.I.A. has relied on for decades for money and discretion in far-off conflicts: the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Since then, the C.I.A. and its Saudi counterpart have maintained an unusual arrangement for the rebel-training mission, which the Americans have code-named Timber Sycamore. Under the deal, current and former administration officials said, the Saudis contribute both weapons and large sums of money, and the C.I.A takes the lead in training the rebels on AK-47 assault rifles and tank-destroying missiles.

The support for the Syrian rebels is only the latest chapter in the decades long relationship between the spy services of Saudi Arabia and the United States, an alliance that has endured through the Iran-contra scandal, support for the mujahedeen against the Soviets in Afghanistan and proxy fights in Africa. Sometimes, as in Syria, the two countries have worked in concert. In others, Saudi Arabia has simply written checks underwriting American covert activities.
The joint arming and training program, which other Middle East nations contribute money to, continues as America’s relations with Saudi Arabia — and the kingdom’s place in the region — are in flux. The old ties of cheap oil and geopolitics that have long bound the countries together have loosened as America’s dependence on foreign oil declines and the Obama administration tiptoes toward a diplomatic rapprochement with Iran.

And yet the alliance persists, kept afloat on a sea of Saudi money and a recognition of mutual self-interest. In addition to Saudi Arabia’s vast oil reserves and role as the spiritual anchor of the Sunni Muslim world, the long intelligence relationship helps explain why the United States has been reluctant to openly criticize Saudi Arabia for its human rights abuses, its treatment of women and its support for the extreme strain of Islam, Wahhabism, that has inspired many of the very terrorist groups the United States is fighting. The Obama administration did not publicly condemn Saudi Arabia’s beheading this month of a dissident Shiite cleric, Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, who had challenged the royal family.

Secrets of the Kingdom

Although the Saudis have been public about their help arming rebel groups in Syria, the extent of their partnership with the C.I.A.’s covert action campaign and their direct financial support had not been disclosed. Details were pieced together in interviews with a half-dozen current and former American officials and sources from several Persian Gulf countries. Most spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the program.
From the moment the C.I.A. operation was started, Saudi money supported it.
“They understand that they have to have us, and we understand that we have to have them,” said Mike Rogers, the former Republican congressman from Michigan who was chairman of the House Intelligence Committee when the C.I.A. operation began. Mr. Rogers declined to discuss details of the classified program.
American officials have not disclosed the amount of the Saudi contribution, which is by far the largest from another nation to the program to arm the rebels against President Bashar al-Assad’s military. But estimates have put the total cost of the arming and training effort at several billion dollars.
The White House has embraced the covert financing from Saudi Arabia — and from Qatar, Jordan and Turkey — at a time when Mr. Obama has pushed gulf nations to take a greater security role in the region.
Spokesmen for both the C.I.A. and the Saudi Embassy in Washington declined to comment. When Mr. Obama signed off on arming the rebels in the spring of 2013, it was partly to try to gain control of the apparent free-for-all in the region. The Qataris and the Saudis had been funneling weapons into Syria for more than a year. The Qataris had even smuggled in shipments of Chinese-made FN-6 shoulder-fired missiles over the border from Turkey.

The Saudi efforts were led by the flamboyant Prince Bandar bin Sultan, at the time the intelligence chief, who directed Saudi spies to buy thousands of AK-47s and millions of rounds of ammunition in Eastern Europe for the Syrian rebels. The C.I.A. helped arrange some of the arms purchases for the Saudis, including a large deal in Croatia in 2012.

Prince Bandar bin Sultan and the mass purchases of arms from Eastern Europe- Information at my former site on this topic!

By the summer of 2012, a freewheeling feel had taken hold along Turkey’s border with Syria as the gulf nations funneled cash and weapons to rebel groups — even some that American officials were concerned had ties to radical groups like Al Qaeda.
The C.I.A. was mostly on the sidelines (mostly on the sidelines?) during this period, authorized by the White House under the Timber Sycamore training program to deliver nonlethal aid to the rebels but not weapons. In late 2012, according to two former senior American officials, David H. Petraeus, then the C.I.A. director, delivered a stern lecture to intelligence officials of several gulf nations at a meeting near the Dead Sea in Jordan. He chastised them for sending arms into Syria without coordinating with one another or with C.I.A. officers in Jordan and Turkey.(so not on the sidelines!)

Months later, Mr. Obama gave his approval for the C.I.A. to begin directly arming and training the rebels from a base in Jordan, amending the Timber Sycamore program to allow lethal assistance. Under the new arrangement, the C.I.A. took the lead in training, while Saudi Arabia’s intelligence agency, the General Intelligence Directorate, provided money and weapons, including TOW anti-tank missiles.
The Qataris have also helped finance the training and allowed a Qatari base to be used as an additional training location. But American officials said Saudi Arabia was by far the largest contributor to the operation.

While the Obama administration saw this coalition as a selling point in Congress, some, including Senator Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat, raised questions about why the C.I.A. needed Saudi money for the operation, according to one former American official. Mr. Wyden declined to be interviewed, but his office released a statement calling for more transparency. “Senior officials have said publicly that the U.S. is trying to build up the battlefield capabilities of the anti-Assad opposition, but they haven’t provided the public with details about how this is being done, which U.S. agencies are involved, or which foreign partners those agencies are working with,” the statement said.
When relations among the countries involved in the training program are strained, it often falls to the United States to broker solutions. As the host, Jordan expects regular payments from the Saudis and the Americans. When the Saudis pay late, according to a former senior intelligence official, the Jordanians complain to C.I.A. officials.
While the Saudis have financed previous C.I.A. missions with no strings attached, the money for Syria comes with expectations, current and former officials said. “They want a seat at the table, and a say in what the agenda of the table is going to be,” said Bruce Riedel, a former C.I.A. analyst and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

The C.I.A. training program is separate from another program to arm Syrian rebels, one the Pentagon ran that has since ended. That program was designed to train rebels to combat Islamic State fighters in Syria, unlike the C.I.A.’s program, which focuses on rebel groups fighting the Syrian military.

As the US funds and trains every side of the conflict.

While the intelligence alliance is central to the Syria fight and has been important in the war against Al Qaeda, a constant irritant in American-Saudi relations is just how much Saudi citizens continue to support terrorist groups, analysts said.

“The more that the argument becomes, ‘We need them as a counterterrorism partner,’ the less persuasive it is,” said William McCants, a former State Department counterterrorism adviser and the author of a book on the Islamic State. “If this is purely a conversation about counterterrorism cooperation, and if the Saudis are a big part of the problem in creating terrorism in the first place, then how persuasive of an argument is it?”

In the near term, the alliance remains solid, strengthened by a bond between spy masters. Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the Saudi interior minister who took over the effort to arm the Syrian rebels from Prince Bandar, has known the C.I.A. director, John O. Brennan, from the time Mr. Brennan was the agency’s Riyadh station chief in the 1990s. Former colleagues say the two men remain close, and Prince Mohammed has won friends in Washington with his aggressive moves to dismantle terrorist groups like Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
The job Mr. Brennan once held in Riyadh is, more than the ambassador’s, the true locus of American power in the kingdom. Former diplomats recall that the most important discussions always flowed through the C.I.A. station chief.

Current and former intelligence officials say there is a benefit to this communication channel: The Saudis are far more responsive to American criticism when it is done in private, and this secret channel has done more to steer Saudi behavior toward America’s interests than any public chastising could have.
The roots of the relationship run deep. In the late 1970s, the Saudis organized what was known as the “Safari Club” — a coalition of nations including Morocco, Egypt and France — that ran covert operations around Africa at a time when Congress had clipped the C.I.A.’s wings over years of abuses.

The Big Four in Saudi Arabia’s Government

Brief background information on the most powerful figures in the kingdom, and how they stand in the sometimes complicated order of succession.
“And so the kingdom, with these countries, helped in some way, I believe, to keep the world safe at a time when the United States was not able to do that,” Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former head of Saudi intelligence, recalled in a speech at Georgetown University in 2002.
In the 1980s, the Saudis helped finance C.I.A. operations in Angola, where the United States backed rebels against the Soviet-allied government. While the Saudis were staunchly anticommunist, Riyadh’s primary incentive seemed to be to solidify its C.I.A. ties. “They were buying good will,” recalled one former senior intelligence officer who was involved in the operation.

In perhaps the most consequential episode, the Saudis helped arm the mujahedeen rebels to drive the Soviets out of Afghanistan. The United States committed hundreds of millions of dollars each year to the mission, and the Saudis matched it, dollar for dollar.

The money flowed through a C.I.A.-run Swiss bank account. In the book “Charlie Wilson’s War,” the journalist George Crile III describes how the C.I.A. arranged for the account to earn no interest, in keeping with the Islamic ban on usury.

In 1984, when the Reagan administration sought help with its secret plan to sell arms to Iran to finance the contra rebels in Nicaragua, Robert C. McFarlane, the national security adviser, met with Prince Bandar, who was the Saudi ambassador to Washington at the time. The White House made it clear that the Saudis would “gain a considerable amount of favor” by cooperating, Mr. McFarlane later recalled.
Prince Bandar pledged $1 million per month to help fund the contras, in recognition of the administration’s past support to the Saudis. The contributions continued after Congress cut off funding to the contras. By the end, the Saudis had contributed $32 million, paid through a Cayman Islands bank account.
When the Iran-contra scandal broke, and questions arose about the Saudi role, the kingdom kept its secrets. Prince Bandar refused to cooperate with the investigation led by Lawrence E. Walsh, the independent counsel.
In a letter, the prince declined to testify, explaining that his country’s “confidences and commitments, like our friendship, are given not just for the moment but the long run.”

To the best of my knowledge, via information gathered through multiple media sources. Assad is still alive and is in Damascus

Below is linked what I have gathered from earlier today to now, in chronological order

Moscow Times

Turkey’s foreign minister will meet with his Russian and Iranian counterparts in Doha on Saturday to try to find a solution to the renewed fighting in Syria and avoid chaos on its doorstep.

The three countries have been partners since 2017 in the Astana process seeking to end the civil war in Syria

I want to point out this specific quote

The precise role of Turkey in this situation remains a topic of speculation- That is the understatement of the century! While I’m certain Turkey is a player, as they have always been, the extent of there involvement is unclear, but, that doesn’t stop alt media outlets & so called influencers from engaging in some of the wildest speculation I’ve ever come across! And that’s saying something! Something not so good.

Saba. Yemen

Syrian army announces start of recapture in Homs, Hama, redeployment in Daraa, Sweida
[Sat, 07 Dec 2024 15:46:55 +0300]

Damascus – Saba:
The Syrian army announced that its forces have regained control in Homs and Hama against the armed groups and carried out a redeployment and repositioning operation in Daraa and Sweida and established a defensive and security cordon in that direction.

A statement issued by the General Command of the Syrian Army and Armed Forces, as reported by Russian RT, said: “Our forces operating in Daraa and Sweida carried out a redeployment and repositioning and established a strong and cohesive defense and security cordon in that direction after terrorist elements attacked the army’s checkpoints and posts in order to distract our armed forces, which began to regain control in Homs and Hama governorates against the terrorist organizations.”

“The General Command of the Army and Armed Forces emphasizes that our armed forces are dealing with the course of events based on their concern for the security of the homeland and citizens, and will confront this terrorism with all firmness and strength,” he added.

Clashes between the Syrian army and armed groups renewed along the frontline in the northern Homs countryside, with the army carrying out intensive artillery strikes against the organizations’ positions in the area.

Yesterday, Syrian media sources reported clashes in various areas of the eastern Daraa countryside in southern Syria and near the Nasib border crossing with Jordan, but the militants have not yet entered the crossing compound.

Then Lavrov stated that we (Russia) will be providing air support to the Syrian Army

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed today, Saturday, that Russia will assist the Syrian army by air to confront terrorist attacks.

“We will provide air support to the Syrian army to counter terrorist attacks,” Lavrov said during the Astana meeting in Doha, calling for “an immediate end to hostilities in Syria and the preservation of its unity.
” Lavrov added, “We agreed at the Astana meeting in Doha on Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Iran, Russia, Turkey discuss Syria crisis in Doha talks via Mehr

Referring to the Astana Format Foreign Ministers’ Meeting held in Doha on Saturday afternoon, the Iranian Foreign Minister told reporters that his meeting with Russian and Turkish counterparts was very good.

Araghchi said that UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Syria, Mr. Geir Pedersen also attended the meeting.

The participants discussed and exchanged views on serious issues in Syria he said, adding that the sides agreed that the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria should be respected and the political dialogue between the Syrian government and the legitimate opposition groups should be started.

It was agreed that Iran and Russia consult with the Syrian government in this regard, the Iranian diplomat added.

From an Iraqi source

I need more context for this quote. But it reads to me as if Russia, Iran and Turkey will take steps on the ground to stop the ongoing military operations- Yes, I could be wrong and that’s okay.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed on Saturday that Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed to stop military operations in Syria.

“Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed to stop military operations in Syria and we will take steps on the ground,” said the Syrian News Agency – SANA quoting the Russian Foreign Minister.

Astana format (meeting in Doha) urges restart of political process in Syria

Astana format meeting urges restart of political process in Syria as per UN Security Council resolution

Turkish, Iranian, and Russian foreign ministers underscored the importance of restarting the political process in Syria during the Astana Format Foreign Ministers Meeting in Doha, Qatar, according to Turkish Foreign Ministry sources.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended the meeting, as did his Iranian and Russian counterparts, Abbas Araghchi and Sergey Lavrov, respectively.

The discussions focused on the situation in Syria, with sources describing the meeting as “constructive.”

According to sources, the meeting highlighted the need to restart the political process and act in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254, as well as reaffirming support for Syria’s territorial integrity and political unity.

UN Security Council Resolution 2254– PDF. It’s 4 pages long. Give it a read. Because the settlement in Syria looks to be dependent on this resolution

And the last piece of the day– Turkey, Iran, Russia and 5 Arab Countries Urge Political Solution in Syria

Türkiye, Iran, Russia and five Arab countries on Saturday urged a political solution in Syria to stop military operations there and protect civilians.

In a joint statement released by the countries’ foreign ministers after they met in Doha, they said the crisis in Syria posed a threat to regional and international security.

The call was also echoed by U.N. Special Envoy for Syria Geir O. Pedersen. He called for urgent political talks in Geneva to implement U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254, urging immediate action to address the ongoing crisis in Syria.

“The situation is changing by the minute. So when I’m addressing you, things are changing inside of Syria,” Pedersen said at a press conference in the Qatari capital, where the two-day Doha Forum 2024 began on Saturday.

Pedersen said he has held discussions with foreign ministers from Türkiye, Iran, and Russia, as well as officials from the U.S., France, U.K., Germany, and EU, and “I have called for urgent political talks in Geneva to implement Security Council Resolution 2254.”

Haven’t seen the 5 Arab nations named, but, it would seem reasonable that Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia , the UAE were at least 4 of the 5.

YEKATERINBURG. Dec 6 (Interfax) – The foreign ministers from member states of the Astana format of Syria talks (Russia, Iran and Turkey) are planning to meet in Doha on Saturday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said.

“The ministerial meeting in the Astana format is scheduled for tomorrow in Qatar, on the sidelines of the politics conference attended by the delegation of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov,” Zakharova told reporters in Yekaterinburg.

This should be interesting.

I’m going to omit the hyperbole- feel free to read entirely at the link above

Biden was injecting himself into one of the most complex hostage negotiations in modern history, a diplomatic frenzy that involved the heads of the Central Intelligence Agency and Israel’s Mossad, Egyptian intelligence officers and Sinwar, an enigmatic leader that Israeli officials say was operating from an underground bunker.

I do not believe Biden is capable of injecting himself into the most complex hostage negotiations in modern history- Flat out, don’t believe it. Reads like election propaganda. Another party most probably filled that role. Most likely Antony Blinken.

The agreement produced from those negotiations on Wednesday morning faced last-minute drama, with quibbling over the fine print delaying it by a day. But by Thursday evening, Qatari negotiators said the deal was back on to free 50 Israeli hostages held by Palestinian militants in Gaza in return for the release of 150 Palestinian prisoners by Israel, starting on Friday.

The agreement also requires daily pauses in Israel’s drone surveillance of Gaza—a key concession that Biden extracted from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. officials said.

The broad outlines of the agreement—an exchange of civilian hostages for Palestinian prisoners and aid—were proposed by negotiators weeks ago, but the talks continued to break down as the conflict flared.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, was coming under heavy pressure at home to break the impasse. The families of hostages held a five-day protest march from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and met with members of Israel’s war cabinet, fearing the military campaign was putting the hostages’ lives in more danger.

This account of the negotiations is based on interviews with more than a dozen officials in the U.S. and across the Middle East that were involved in brokering the breakthrough over the last several weeks. Officials discussed the details of the negotiations, which they frequently described as dramatic, intense, frustrating and tedious, in anticipation of the deal going through. Although the parties have all accepted it, it will be days before all the hostages are actually released. One U.S. official reiterated that the deal isn’t done until the deal is done
n the early days of the crisis, top officials from the U.S., Qatar, Egypt, Israel and Gaza began to hold secret talks as part of a special hostage negotiation cell. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan directed Josh Geltzer, a legal adviser to the National Security Council and White House aide, to help create the cell, according to a senior administration official, and it was established in the Qatari capital of Doha.

Qatari officials were expected to press Hamas’s political leaders. Egypt’s intelligence services had decades of experience dealing with Hamas in Gaza and with Sinwar specifically. The Egyptians had successfully brokered cease-fires in a series of previous wars between Hamas and Israel, and they maintained the only viable channel to Hamas’s military leadership in Gaza, according to officials across the Middle East.

Sinwar himself was no stranger to prisoner exchanges. Israel had freed him and more than 1,000 prisoners in 2011 in exchange for a single Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, who was held for years by Hamas in Gaza.

Often times freed prisoners are very friendly to their so called captors- At the time of the Mavi Marmara there was a prisoner, Mahdi al Harati, set free by Israel, who appeared in the US backed overthrow of Libya’s legitimate leader and subsequent destruction of that nation- Showing up in Syria too. He became the Mayor of Tripoli. He had also been rewarded with a nice new life in Ireland. Which makes me question Sinwar’s actual role in this entire situation

Developments on the battlefield “impacted the negotiation dramatically,” said Mohammed Al-Khulaifi, the Qatari negotiator. “Any escalation will make our task extremely difficult.”
The talks resumed days later, with Egyptian intelligence officers trying to coax Hamas into supplying a list of 50 names. On Oct. 31, Israel launched an airstrike targeting a Hamas leader in Jabalia in northern Gaza that flattened entire apartment blocks, killing more than 100 Palestinian civilians in the deadliest single airstrike of the war to date. Egypt, Qatar and Hamas all halted the negotiations in protest.

With the talks teetering, Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns and the director of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, David Barnea, flew to Doha to try to obtain more information about the hostages and see if more pressure could be applied on Hamas. Burns met Barnea and Qatari officials in Doha on Nov. 9 in what regional officials saw as a breakthrough in the talks. Officials wrote a rough draft of the deal.

On the morning of Nov. 12, Hamas finally supplied more names of hostages to be released as Israeli troops surrounded Al-Shifa Hospital.
Hamas leaders in Gaza again cut off contact with negotiators. Sinwar sent a message to Egypt saying Hamas would cancel the negotiations completely if the Israeli military didn’t call off the operation at the hospital.

Qatari officials agreed to prod Hamas and asked Biden for help pressuring Israel to accept the deal. Biden said he had been in frequent contact with Netanyahu about the negotiations.
In the following days, McGurk flew to Doha to hammer out the details of the agreement, now written down in a six-page document, while Burns joined the talks remotely. McGurk also flew to Cairo to meet Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel to go through the same document.

Hamas had agreed to most of the draft document, but sticking points remained. There was disagreement over the ratio for exchanging Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, as part of a second wave of releases. The two sides still differed over the length of the pause in fighting.
Hamas was also demanding Israel stop its drone surveillance of Gaza during the pauses—a measure that would hamstring Israel’s efforts to pursue Hamas leaders in southern Gaza.

Biden held a series of conversations with Netanyahu on the issues. Israel had initially resisted the request to stop drone surveillance, but at Biden’s request, ultimately conceded the point. The U.S., which also conducts surveillance over Gaza, is considering if it will continue its own drone operations and at what scale.
“We are evaluating how the U.S. will adjust its activities in support of these efforts,” one U.S. official said.
Hamas publicly accepted the deal on Nov. 21. Israel’s government approved it early on Wednesday.

But by Wednesday night, Israel’s top national security official, Tzachi Hanegbi, issued a surprise statement saying the deal would be delayed by at least a day. A last-minute issue had come up.

According to negotiators, Hamas asked Israel for a list of the first group of Palestinian prisoners to be released so it could inform their families. When Israel turned down the request, Hamas refused to share the list of hostages it planned to hand over on the first day, negotiators said.
A spokesman for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said Thursday that the lists of hostages and prisoners to be swapped would be exchanged daily.

Brett McGurk- Lawrence of Kurdistan- one of my censored reports..