Spent a fair bit of time checking a variety of media outlets-
Overwhelming the media presentation quotes unnamed sources making specific claims.
The media outlets blaming Russia for the crash are also predominantly US, UK and/or other western backed media disinfo outlets- Like Meduza

Can’t help but also notice the predominance of weasel wording in most of these articles

Examples are words such as “probably”, “ likely”, “suspected” or “reportedly fired on” But there is nothing concrete that I can find.
It’s possible Ukraine shot at and disabled the plane using western missiles, drones or other types of arms- I don’t know?

Quoted in Washington Times article linked above “The airport in Grozny has been targeted by Ukraine in the past as part of its war with Russia.”

Recently; Ukrainian Drone Hits Russia’s Chechnya or Ukraine Drones Target Russia’s Chechnya Region

It’s also possible the plane was struck by Russian air defense “when a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system launched the attack”

But, long story short. I don’t know and everyone else is speculating!

A round up of news articles

There are no official versions on AZAL plane crash yet – Kazakh Deputy PM

ASTANA. Dec 26 (Interfax-Kazakhstan) – At the moment there are no official versions of the crash of the Embraer 190 aircraft of AZAL near Aktau, Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan Kanat Bozumbayev said.

Reports of an oxygen cylinder blowing up on board the plane

ASTANA. Dec 26 (Interfax) – An oxygen cylinder has blown up on board an AZAL plane that crashed in Kazakhstan’s Aktau while en route from Baku to Grozny, Kazakh Transport Minister Marat Karabayev said.

Was this a specific passengers oxygen tank? Or a tank for the crew? Because Oxygen Masks in airplanes’, for passengers, don’t use tanks- Relying instead on a chemical reaction

Two flight recorders have been located

The second flight recorder has been found on the site of the crash of the AZAL Embraer 190 plane in Aktau, administrative center in the Mangystau region, the region’s transport prosecutor Abylaibek Ordabayev said.

Black boxes of crashed plane in Aktau to be studied after arrival of experts – official

Experts will arrive in Kazakhstan tomorrow to decode the data from the black boxes of the aircraft that crashed in Aktau, the country’s Vice Minister of Transport Talgat Lastayev said at a briefing in Aktau today, Trend reports via Kazakh media.

“There is a standard algorithm and procedures followed by all countries. Currently, the process of collecting fragments and components is underway. Experts, including representatives from the aircraft’s manufacturer country—Brazil—and the airline, will arrive tomorrow. Once they arrive, a decision will be made on how to conduct the data decoding. This is the established procedure,” he explained.

The vice minister clarified that an investigation commission is first formed to examine the aviation accident. Namely, this commission makes decisions on handling the black boxes based on all available data and circumstances.

The tragedy occurred on December 25, when an Embraer 190 plane operated by AZAL, en route from Baku to Grozny, crashed just 3 kilometers from Aktau Airport.

The Embraer 190 was carrying 67 people, including 62 passengers and five crew members.

In the aftermath of the crash, 27 people were hospitalized. Among them, 15 are citizens of Azerbaijan, eight are from Russia, and three are from Kyrgyzstan. The identity of one individual remains unknown.

Of those hospitalized, 11 are being treated in intensive care, 13 in the trauma ward, two in the neurosurgery ward, and one in the surgical ward. They are under the care of experienced doctors from Kazakhstan, as well as specialists sent from Azerbaijan and Russia. All patients have received prompt and specialized medical and psychological support.

The crash claimed the lives of both pilots and a flight attendant. Two other crew members survived.

Bottom line. To date all reporting is speculation. The use of unnamed sources and excessive weasel wording is a BIG RED FLAG.

Most recent update!

CTV

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.

"The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing," he said.

Talks on Syria held in Khazakstan

A new round of talks on the settlement of the Syrian conflict was held on Monday and Tuesday in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said.

During their 22nd meeting, the participants in the Astana format, which includes Iran, Russia, Syria, Türkiye, and the UN, discussed the impact of regional developments on Syria, and assessed the security, humanitarian, and economic situation within the country, along with counter-terrorism efforts, said a Monday ministry statement.

The discussion also explored ways to revive the political process, which is the “only path towards a comprehensive solution to the conflict in Syria,” it stated.

At the conclusion of the meeting, the parties stressed in a joint statement the major role of the Astana Process in fostering an enduring resolution of the crisis.

Condemning the Israeli attacks in Gaza and Lebanon as well as in West Bank, the joint statement said that the parties called on the international community and the UN Security Council to ensure a lasting cease-fire and increase in humanitarian assistance.

The parties also condemned Israeli attacks in Syria.

They also “expressed their determination to continue working together to combat terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and stand against separatist agendas aimed at undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria and threatening the national security of the neighbouring countries, including through cross-border attacks and infiltrations.”

Condemning activities of terrorist groups including the Oct 23 terrorist attack on Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) in the Turkish capital Ankara and their affiliates operating under various names in various parts of Syria, the parties also underscored the necessity for full implementation of all arrangements concerning northern Syria.

The representatives of the participant countries also agreed to reconvene for their 23rd meeting on Syria in the first half of 2025.

Some media outlets are presenting the 2025 meeting as being a delay of some sort because of the situation in Syria. Doesn’t appear to be the case! This is what was planned.

A place and an individual completely unknown to me.

Twitter: Feel free to get in touch @TadeuszGiczan

However, the reading was good. A bit more of a local/regional perspective. Could shed some light on possible internal power struggles in Kazakhstan. And possible outside players. There is another article that will be featured here in short order that broaches the subject of criminal gangs operating in Kazkhstan and possibly wider areas?

On 1 January, Kazakhstan doubled the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the main fuel for cars in some parts of the country, from 60 to 120 tenge ($0.14 to $0.28) per litre. It didn’t take long for the public to react. The next morning, the residents of Zhanaozen, the capital of the traditionally troublesome Mangystau region in the west of the country, took to the streets. Two days later, on 4 January, Kazakhstani authorities decided to make concessions to the protesters, announcing that LPG prices in the Mangystau region would drop to 50 tenge per litre. This didn’t stop the protests, however; instead, the economic demands were joined by political ones – the protesters demanded the return of local self-government (possible separatist/balkanziation angle?) and the final departure from politics of first and longtime former president Nursultan Nazarbayev. Protests also spread to other cities – Aktau, Atyrau, and especially Kazakhstan’s largest city Almaty – but remained peaceful. Things would probably have remained that way if not for two key events that occurred on 4 January. 

Firstly, the protesters in southern Kazakhstan were suddenly joined by aggressive and well-organised groups of people who began smashing up police cars, shops and administrative buildings. Some protesters thought they were prisoners released from prisons, whose actions were intended to discredit the peaceful protest.

Secondly, police officers in Almaty reported as early as 4 January that they were given no orders to counter “destructive elements”. Furthermore, Almaty airport officials said that the paramilitary units guarding the terminal and runways had left their posts 40 minutes before unknown men with assault rifles appeared at the airport.

In the Mangystau region where the protests started, they remained peaceful until the end. But in the south, and especially in Almaty, these newly emerged organised groups soon seized the city hall without much police resistance, looted it, set it on fire and left. The same happened with other strategic buildings, including the presidential residence in Almaty, the regional office of the ruling Nur Otan party, and the building of Kazakhstan’s intelligence agency, the National Security Committee (NSC), which was left virtually unguarded and became a major source of weapons for the protesters.

On 5 January, security forces almost completely disappeared from Almaty, leaving its inhabitants at the mercy of attackers. The building of the state TV channel “Kazakhstan” was seized and burned down, as was the office of another TV channel Mir24. The building of the Almaty Police Department was also seized. Protesters continued to burn police vehicles. By evening, after police and security forces left, the city had descended into anarchy. Looters roamed the streets, many of them armed with assault rifles. It was then that the airport of Almaty, which had been abandoned by the law enforcers, was seized and looted as well. More than 700 policemen and soldiers were wounded, while 18 were killed, some of them decapitated. Eyewitnesses say that the rioters were armed and well-prepared; for example they were seen using walkie-talkies to communicate when the internet was down.

Did they have satellite access? Giving them broader connectivity to other parties?

This begs the question – who organised these militant squads and why did the security forces in southern Kazakhstan initially offer little to no resistance to them?

The official version announced by president Tokayev on 7 January is that Almaty was attacked by 20,000 terrorists who spoke unspecified foreign languages and, during the night, attacked morgues and took away the bodies of their fallen comrades to leave no trace. According to Tokayev, this is “a known practice of international terrorists”. Also blamed was the National Security Committee, which “slept through” these hordes of terrorists and “concealed the existence of war camps in the mountains”.

For those who find the official version somewhat absurd, another exists. The people responsible for sacking Almaty and turning it into a warzone on 4-6 January might be members of the Nazarbayev clan, specifically Nazarbayev’s nephews Samat Abish and Kairat Satybaldy. One of the first to publish this version was Daniil Kislov of Fergana in his article “Terrorist transit”, to which the Kazakh Ministry of Information reacted almost immediately, claimed the information to be false, demanded its removal and blocked access to the website from Kazakhstan.

Samat Abish is the first deputy chairman of the NSC, as well as the nephew of Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. He is also the brother of Nazarbayev’s second nephew, one of Kazakhstan’s richest men, Kairat Satybaldy. Like Samat, Kairat started his career in the NSC, but then went into business. In addition, Satybaldy has for many years been an informal leader of the country’s religious radicals and runs well-structured paramilitary units, mainly in the southern regions of the country.

Some local experts and journalists have long written about how Nazarbayev’s nephews, who accumulated power and money with their uncle’s blessing, have become a danger to the country. For instance, back in June 2021, one Kazakh telegram channel wrote:

“Recently, there’s been widespread discussion among Kazakhstan’s political elite about the redistribution of several sectors of the national economy in favour of private individuals, rather than state or quasi-state structures. Nazarbayev’s nephew Kairat Satybaldy and brother Bolat Nazarbayev, some of the most influential and wealthy people in southern Kazakhstan, are increasingly being named as beneficiaries of such redistribution.

At the same time, there is increasing talk about a Jamaat (a group of Muslims offering prayers together) run by Satybaldy and Bolat Nazarbayev, accepting only big businessmen as its members. The existence of such a Jamaat was first brought up when all the bazaars and markets in Almaty and the Almaty region were monopolised. Even though the vendors are supposed to be competitors, at a certain point they all adopted common rules and started collaborating on the raising of prices, smuggling and many other issues. It was then that people began to say that all these vendors were members of the same Islamic community taking part in Jumma Namaz at least once a week.

The same community also includes the managers of a logistics hub at the Bolat Nazarbayev-owned Altyn-Orda market in Almaty, as well as of several retail chains. Gradually, the influence of what was known simply as the Jamaat spread to markets in neighbouring towns and regions from Shymkent to Nur-Sultan, as well as in Jambul, Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions.

In practice, the whole sector of trade in food and basic consumer goods is already completely monopolised in the south of Kazakhstan by one group of people, and partially monopolised in other regions. Legally, these individuals are not connected in any way, which allows them to bypass anti-monopoly regulations.

It is believed that the aim of the Jamaat is to peacefully seize power in the country by monopolising as many spheres of the economy as possible, and that its activities extend well beyond commerce alone.

Presently, the Jamaat operates solely within the limits of the law, but the possibility of redistributing some sectors of the national economy by force cannot be ruled out in the future. Such a scenario is especially possible given that in southern Kazakhstan the Jamaat has what might be described as a PMC, a private military company that is composed of both career criminals and security personnel from numerous bazaars and markets, as well as thousands of villagers who are dependent on the Jamaat. On the ground, members of the group include police and customs officers who have legal access to weapons.

That said, while Satybaldy’s Jamaat has so far acted peacefully (unless one counts the criminals working for Satybaldy and other members of the group who solve the most delicate issues, as well as the total corruption in the Jamaat-controlled customs houses), a violent option in the future cannot be ruled out.

The Jamaat has intensified its activities in recent years, awaiting the “final solution to the transit of power”. By that point, it seeks to be as prepared as possible – having subjugated as many spheres of the economy as possible. As for plan B, Satybaldy and Bolat Nazarbayev have long formed a de facto private army comprised of several thousand villagers in the south of Kazakhstan dependent on their patronage, security personnel in numerous bazaars, other assets of Jamaat members, several gangs, as well as corrupt police and customs officers”.

According to eyewitnesses, one of the instigators of the first acts of violence in central Almaty on 5 January was criminal leader Arman Dzhumageldiev (known as Arman the Wild), the right-hand man of Kairat Satybaldy. The attacks began right before Tokayev dismissed the government, the head of the NSC, and Nazarbayev’s confidant Karim Massimov, and further moved to remove Nursultan Nazarbayev himself from his lifelong position as head of the Security Council.

“The unrest that is taking place in Almaty – in the fiefdom of Samat Abish – is a direct consequence of the fact that he went all in and is almost openly playing against Tokayev”, said journalist Lukpan Akhmedyarov on Ekho Moskvy radio.

“When they saw that they were being removed from power by Tokayev, Nazarbayev’s nephews quickly mobilised the uneducated people of the south, yesterday’s villagers of the Karatau foothills and the Charyn valley,” wrote historian Andrey Zubov. “I think they have been preparing for such an option for a long time, having placed like-minded radical Islamists in all important positions in the country’s law enforcement agencies, especially in the southern regions”.

The rapid deployment of CSTO troops should also be seen from the same perspective. The primary goal of the CSTO troops was not to restore order but to send a signal to the leadership of Kazakhstan’s army and police, who were not fully subordinate to Tokayev, that Russia is siding with Tokayev in this conflict.

There is much more at the originating source. If you are so inclined read the entire article. It certainly provides food for thought. Is indepth. And quite interesting.

Dozens of protesters killed and security forces decapitated as Russia-led troops fly in for ‘peacekeeping’ mission

Sky news has the quotes around the word peacekeeping, as would be expected from a 5 eyes media outlet. The CSTO sent about 2500 peacekeepers in and I suspect that’s what they are there to do. Keep the peace. Quell the terrorists, oops… protestors

“Two members of the security forces were decapitated and are among at least 18 who have died, authorities said.”

It takes a special kind of ‘protestor’ to decapitate a human being. Speculating, but, not without good reason or just cause-

The Uighurs came into eastern Syria alongside the PKK mercs and that Georgian Army Sergeant Tarkhan Tayumurazovich Batirashvili (Omar Shishani) who was leading ISIS. They all have a common benefactor in the US/UK war machine. As was documented at my censored blog.

Before you go all ‘bad Turkey’ on me. Please don’t waste my time with that simplistic ideology I’ll explain the reason, sensibly speaking, for the presence of Uighurs. Uighurs reside in Xinjiang.

5 eyes media has been workin’ a specific mind virus against China for some time now. Uighurs as victims of Chinese oppression. You’d have to have your head stuck up your @rse to be unaware of this!

Look at the map below:

What do you see? Kazakhstan. Cooperation with China on the Belt and Road initiative- running through Xinjiang. Geo politics at play.

Yesterday: My observations as follows: Kazakhstan sits right at Russia’s border. Relations are good. Western border with China. Relations are good as well. Belt and Road cooperation.

Now we should be on the same page. And should understand why it’s quite likely there are Uighur mercenaries employed in Kazakhstan. Their presence indicates a wider destablization campaign is at play. I’ve seen no reports that back my contention up it’s an opinion that makes sense for so many reasons. Take it or leave it?

Business Insider: China has accused militant Uighurs of being terrorists and inciting violence across the country since at least the early 2000s, as many Uighur separatists left China for places like Afghanistan and Syria to become fighters.

Two-week state of emergency

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has blamed foreign-trained “terrorist” gangs, and a Russia-led military alliance is sending troops in a “peacekeeping” mission.

Troops from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation – an alliance of Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – have been deployed

Reports indicate the “protestors” are probably still holding the airport

As a large group of protestors seized Almaty International Airport for Kazakhstan’s economic crisis and inflation, over 70 Asiana passengers and crew members that arrived at the airport on Wednesday (local time) were unable to leave the airport. There is a total of 77 Asiana passengers and crewmembers who arrived at the airport at 8 p.m. on Tuesday, including 29 South Korean passengers and eight South Korean crewmembers. The South Koreans stayed overnight in a waiting area within the airport before moving to a local hotel on Thursday.

According to Reuters, protestors seized the airport around 8 p.m. on Wednesday. As a result, the operation of the airport was suspended with all departing flights canceled and the Asiana passengers that arrived around that time were unable to go through the entry procedure and had to stay in the airport.

Additional reading:

Covers more then just Kazakhstan. Mentioning Ukraine as well. These two situations have inter connectivity.

Let’s see what the Atlantic Council has to say?

Kazakhstan rarely makes international headlines. How unusual are these protests, and why should the West be watching? 

Very unusual. We haven’t seen major protests in Kazakhstan since the unrest in Zhanaozen ten years ago. The scale of these protests is unprecedented. A spike in fuel prices catalyzed the protests, but the causes are far deeper and the protests are globally significant. The unrest could draw in the Russians. China is undoubtedly watching with interest. 

I’d started addressing the neigbhourhood in my own words before stumbling across the Atlantic article.

My observations as follows: Kazakhstan sits right at Russia’s border. Relations are good. Western border with China. Relations are good as well. Belt and Road cooperation.

If you’ve been following along with the Syrian situation all these many years you’ll know that Astana, Khazakstan now renamed to Nur Sultan has hosted Russia, Turkey and Iran.

Last covered here just a short while ago.

What does the official response to the protests tell us about the Kazakh government/leadership?

The Kazakh leadership is out of touch with its people, but this isn’t a super authoritarian state like Belarus. So far there hasn’t been massive violence like there was in Minsk. The Kazakh government tried to dispel the protests by reducing fuel prices and offering this and that, but they’ve been too slow to pacify the protesters. 

— Melinda Haring

The situation is critical. Airports and important government offices are seized by protesters. There is a report that the military is not sure about the loyalty of the forces to the government. President Tokayev has called in security forces from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)—which means Russia and Belarus. 

— Ariel Cohen

There are reports that airplanes have been seized. Hardly indicative of run of the mill protestors

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/5/kazakhstan-asks-russian-led-alliance-for-help-quelling-protests

Atlantic Council: How are Kazakhstan’s major neighbors, Russia and China, interpreting these events?

Tokayev has appealed to the members of the CSTO—the security organization that ultimately replaced the Warsaw Pact for some countries of the former Soviet Union—for help. In practice this means an appeal to Russia, the most militarily capable of these states. A Russian military intervention is unlikely, particularly given the current Russian military buildup around Ukraine, which has diverted many of the Russian forces normally stationed near the Kazakh border. However, Russia has strong interests in Kazakhstan, ranging from its Baikonur Cosmodrome spaceport to the fact that Russia often relies on Kazakh gas as a backstop for insufficient Russian production. China has a lesser but still important interest in Kazakh stability; the country supplies at least 5 percent of Chinese natural gas imports. We should expect both the CSTO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization—of which all three countries are members—to play a role in this crisis going forward. 

— Emma Ashford

TASS

President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev replaced Nursultan Nazarbayev on the post of Chairman of Security Council, he announced on Wednesday in his second address to the nation amid massive protests.

Tokayev accused “financially motivated conspirators” of influencing the riots and promised to take the toughest possible actions from now on.

Quoting, lastly, from Atlantic Council

We should be concerned about chaos not destroying the significant achievements of the people of Kazakhstan. It is a large country—three time zones—with considerable resources of oil, gas, uranium, wheat, and many other important commodities. It has an educated and tolerant people that suffered a lot in the Soviet era. The United States should definitely collect and analyze information, talk to everybody, protect considerable American investments there, and support sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the secular nature of Kazakhstan—which has excellent relations with the United States.

— Ariel Cohen

Dam the virus to hell as the attempt to redraw borders continues on. Pandemic? What pandemic?