**Good read- War, Inflation, and the Hidden Costs of Closing the World’s Most Important Strait

The article actually talks about 2 chokepoints, excerpts below, read entirely at link above

I want to talk about the thing nobody in Washington seems willing to say out loud, which is that the cost of this war is going to show up at your kitchen table before it shows up in any congressional budget hearing.

But I’m not writing about the war. Not really. I’m writing about what the war is doing to the invisible infrastructure of the global economy, the shipping lanes and insurance markets, fertilizer contracts, and airfreight corridors that nobody thinks about until they break.

Because they’re breaking right now, in ways that will take months to repair, and the people who will pay for it aren’t the ones making the decisions.

The Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Through that gap moves roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil, about 20.9 million barrels per day. It also carries a significant share of global liquefied natural gas, a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer exports, and a meaningful slice of container traffic linking Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

It is, as of right now, essentially closed.

Not formally. Nobody has dropped a chain across it. But Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the waterway shut to allied shipping.

Protection and indemnity insurers pulled coverage. War-risk premiums, which had already tripled in the days before the strikes, became irrelevant once insurers stopped offering any coverage at all.

And without insurance, no shipowner will send a vessel through. It’s not the missiles that closed the Strait. It’s the actuarial tables.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from an average of 138 vessels per day to roughly two.

One hundred and fifty tankers are sitting at anchor in open Gulf waters.

One hundred and forty-seven container ships are trapped inside the Persian Gulf, unable to exit.

Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, every major container line, has suspended operations. Maersk paused two key services linking the Middle East to Asia and Europe and halted all trans-Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Houthis, who had eased up on Red Sea attacks in recent months, announced they’re resuming. So now both chokepoints are closed, and the only way around is the Cape of Good Hope, which adds 10 to 14 days to every voyage.

This is what a dual chokepoint crisis looks like. It’s never happened before in modern container shipping.

Let me put this in dollars.

LNG shipping charter rates went from $40,000 a day to $300,000 a day in less than a week. That’s a 650 percent increase.

Asian spot LNG prices doubled.

Qatar halted all LNG production at its Ras Laffan hub, the largest LNG export complex on Earth, after Iranian drones hit facilities there, and declared force majeure on its contracts.

Qatar and the UAE together supply roughly 20 percent of the world’s LNG, and 85 percent of Qatar’s exports go to Asia.

The Oil Shock You Were Promised You’d Never See Again

Crude oil has risen roughly 50 percent since February 28. That’s not a typo.

Brent was trading around $70 a barrel before the strikes. It touched $119 overnight. (it has since come down)

WTI has moved from $67 to over $115.

Iraq, the second-largest OPEC producer, has seen output from its three main southern oilfields collapse by 70 percent, from 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million, because there’s nowhere to put the oil.

Kuwait has cut production preemptively. The UAE is “carefully managing offshore production levels.”

Everyone in the Gulf is producing less because the tankers can’t get out.

Meanwhile, Israel struck a major fuel storage facility near Tehran over the weekend.

Saudi Arabia’s 550,000-barrel-per-day Ras Tanura refinery has been hit twice. Drones even targeted Saudi Aramco’s million-barrel-per-day Shaybah oil field.

We are watching the physical destruction of energy infrastructure in real time, which means this isn’t just a shipping problem. Even when the Strait reopens, some of this supply isn’t coming back quickly.

Did Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu consider these realities before striking Iran? Or was their hubris so great, they didn’t consider the possibility that Iran wouldn’t fall immediately?

Did Trump consider he would end up having to ease Russian oil sanctions in an attempt to try to keep global oil prices down?

**Trump eases Russian oil sanctions as Iran war sends prices spiking

The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil, a boost to the Kremlin as Washington tries to contain energy prices sent soaring by the American-Israeli assault on Iran.

The announcement failed to immediately calm oil prices, which have spiraled since Tehran effectively closed the vital Strait of Hormuz oil chokepoint and began attacking energy facilities across neighboring Gulf countries.

The international benchmark of Brent crude rose again overnight, sitting just above $100 a barrel as of 6 a.m. ET. Markets worldwide slipped, with U.S. stock futures down following slumps across Asia and Europe.

Announcing the move Thursday evening, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that until April 11 countries would be able to buy Russian oil that was already at sea.

That moves seems really at odds with the US sanctions regime.

**Europe Negotiating With Iran For Oil Access Through Strait—As U.S. Still Blocked—Report Says

Specifically France and Italy.

France and Italy have reportedly opened talks with Iranian officials in hopes of negotiating a deal to allow their vessels through the Strait of Hormuz after a weekslong standstill in the shipping lane has wrecked havoc on global energy markets.

**Drone attacks strike Italian and French military bases in Iraq amid Iran’s regional retaliation

Italy and France have maintained occupying forces in the Kurdish territory of Iraq for decades now

In a surge of violence linked to Iran’s broader retaliation against U.S. and Israeli strikes, drone attacks targeted military bases hosting Italian and French forces in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region on Thursday.

While the strike on the Italian base at Camp Singara in Erbil caused only material damage with no casualties, a subsequent attack in the nearby Makhmour area wounded six French soldiers and killed one officer, escalating concerns over the safety of international coalitions in the region.

The Italian incident occurred overnight on 11-12 March, when a drone struck Camp Singara, a facility near Erbil International Airport that hosts 141 Italian soldiers as part of Operation Prima Parthica. This mission, integrated with the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition and NATO’s Iraq operations, focuses on training, assisting, and supporting Kurdish Peshmerga and Iraqi forces, alongside logistics and protection duties

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto confirmed via X no victims or injuries among military personnel, though the attack caused material damage, including the destruction of a logistics vehicle.

***U.S. to send 2,500 Marines to Middle East as Iran, Israel continue to exchange attacks

Meanwhile, a U.S. official told The Associated Press that roughly 2,500 Marines and at least one amphibious assault ship were headed for the Middle East in a major addition of troops.

The US military has seen more casualties..

Did Trump and Bibi even consider any alternative scenarios, costs, damage to the global economy and worse before launching this attack? The fact they have made the offer to Russia to ease up on sanctioned oil, suggests, they didn’t consider all possibilities.

Thoughts, please?

The points omitted via translate (french to english) and Andrew Korbyko

Lavrov has certainly introduced some predictable polemics in his answers — this is his style, as those who follow know — but this does not justify the refusal to publish his interview.

The major Italian daily Corriere della Sera has outrageously refused to publish in its entirety the exclusive written interview of Sergei Lavrov that the Russian Foreign Ministry had proposed to clarify Russia’s position, and to which the newspaper was initially prepared to collaborate until the reception of the Minister’s responses. The Russian ministry then denounced the decision as “a blatant case of censorship.”

So here are the essential points of this interview, so that readers can form their own opinion.

Lavrov first explained that Trump and Putin had agreed to Anchorage on the need to keep Ukraine out of NATO and recognize the new geopolitical reality.

Ukraine, the European Union and the United Kingdom immediately tried to manipulate it at their next meeting at the White House. The Financial Times then played a complementary role after the new phone call between Trump and Putin in October, suggesting that the follow-up call between Lavrov and Rubio had failed their plans to summit Budapest. Putin is ready to meet Trump at this location.

The minister then clarified that the “special operation” did not address territorial objectives, but aimed to save lives within the Russian minority and ensure the security of the country. He claimed that Russia’s restraint so far was aimed at saving civilian and military lives. Lavrov also reaffirmed Russia’s objectives in this operation and defended the wearing of a sweatshirt bearing the inscription “USSR” at the Anchorage summit, stressing that it was not a sign of imperial nostalgia, but a simple expression of patriotism.

Continuing, Lavrov said that the Europeans were seeking to extend the Ukrainian conflict indefinitely, because “they have no other way to divert the attention of their voters from the rapid deterioration of the internal socio-economic situation … they are openly preparing Europe for a new great war against Russia and try to convince Washington to reject any honest and fair settlement.” He then recalled the 2022 Russian proposal to reform the European security architecture, rejected by NATO and the EU.

Imagine Europe trying to pass the buck by blaming Russia? It’s not hard to imagine at all.

Asked about Russia’s alleged “isolation,” Lavrov cited Moscow’s wide range of partners in the global South as well as the many high-level events in which its diplomats participated. He rejected the idea that Russia is dependent on China, noting that they are coordinating their positions on key issues and consider themselves equal.

Lavrov concluded by stating that a Russian-Italian rapprochement was only possible if Rome renounced its hostile policy.

Lavrov has certainly expressed some predictable spikes, but this does not justify the non-publication of his interview. Corriere della Sera has the right not to publish content or to propose an abridged version, but his decision not to broadcast this interview in full has everything of censorship, concealed under the guise of “editoral standards”. The newspaper probably did not want to expose the public to Lavrov’s criticism of Ukraine and the West.

In any case, this decision only drew more attention to the controversial passages they were seeking to dismiss, after the Russian Foreign Ministry brought the matter to light. Corriere della Sera, considered one of the European reference newspapers, emerges weakened from this sequence, just like the continental press as a whole. This will not surprise the informed observers, but could disturb naïve readers who still thought that censorship did not exist in Europe.

Thank goodness for online translators- this time Reverso

Brought to my attention by https://x.com/Serbofilo2018

Grazie

The reporter is lamenting the lack of coverage in the media- Duly noted myself as I took some time to search about- Came up with one item.

https://contropiano.org/news/internazionale-news/2025/02/19/un-attentato-stile-nord-stream-2-a-savona-0180561

Five days after the events, we note the delay with which the national media are informing the public about the disturbing news coming from Savona, news to which should have been given priority and space for gravity and possible consequences.

The events occurred on the night between Friday 14 and Saturday 15, a few hundred meters from the port of Vado Ligure (Savona), where the oil tanker «Seajewel» was and still is moored: the crew was awakened by two strong explosions, that have cut the side below the waterline, with water entering the bulkheads.

An attack in the style of “Nord Stream 2”, in Savona

As we write (19 February, 12 hours) we are finding that the news begins to bounce off the internet. Imagine the embarrassment of government: Our Ukrainian ‘ally’ has sent us a heavy warning, at a time when the USA seems to be abruptly exiting the proxy war against Russia, and Europe is divided over everything, Except apparently to inflate the orders of the arms industry.

Some in Italy are not feeling the love from Ukraine…

The case of «Seajewel» is strikingly similar, also in terms of timing, to that of the ‘bombing’ of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, whose disastrous consequences for peace and economic security we are still evaluating for defect. If it did not turn into an eco-disaster right in front of the marine sanctuary of Bergeggi it may have been a coincidence or a calculation.

The ship was sabotaged with explosives

Thanks to the work of local journalists, we learned that already on Sunday there were checks in the sea with divers «arrived from La Spezia» (IGV.it, online newspaper liguria, 17.2.2025), in all probability of the specialists of the underwater operational group of the Comsubin of the Navy.

Comsubin is a highly specialized, very secretive part of the Italian navy- I mentioned them previously when the sailing yacht, The Bayesian, went down off the coast of Italy- in very curious circumstances.

Recall?

Back to the Sea Jewel;

Moreover, also on Monday 17 the Savona Prosecutor’s Office has formally entrusted the Marine Corps of Divers with investigations into the explosive devices, and the day after (Ansa/Liguria Region, 18.2.2025) Military circles were leaking that the explosives used could be of a military type such as Rdx or Hdx, usable in water.

Terrorism probe opened over Sea Jewel explosion

Genoa prosecutors have opened an investigation into the Seajewel, a Maltese-flagged tanker moored off Savona with gash in its hull caused by an explosion, sources said on Wednesday.
The ship is reportedly part of the “shadow fleet” of tankers allegedly used to bring fuel from Russia to Europe in contravention of Western sanctions.
Italian Navy divers have inspected the ship’s hull for a second time, the sources said.

Terrorism? The state sponsored kind no doubt!

(I’ve omitted some paragraphs for brevity, read them at the link)

Financial Times

US president-elect Donald Trump has pushed back his campaign pledge to end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours” to several months, in a shift European partners have interpreted as a sign that his administration will not immediately abandon support for Kyiv.

Two European officials told the Financial Times that discussions with Trump’s incoming team in recent weeks revealed they had not yet decided on how to solve the conflict, and that support to Ukraine would continue after the US president’s inauguration on January 20.

“The whole [Trump] team is obsessed with strength and looking strong, so they’re recalibrating the Ukraine approach,” said one of the officials.

The incoming administration was also wary of comparisons being made with Joe Biden’s calamitous US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was something the Trump camp would not like to see repeated in Ukraine, the official added.

Trump earlier this week suggested that “six months” was a more realistic target to end the war. His appointee as special envoy for the war in Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, told Fox News on Wednesday that the aim was to stop the conflict in “100 days”.

European leaders and officials have been making the case to Trump and his team that continued US military aid is needed to put Kyiv in a stronger position for peace talks and help bring Moscow to the negotiating table, nearly three years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who met Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort last week, has ruled out that Washington would “abandon” Ukraine.

“I don’t foresee a US disengagement,” she said in a news conference on Thursday, adding that Trump had proven capable of blending diplomacy with deterrence. “On peace, Trump may be someone who is moving forward towards a solution, but I don’t think that means abandoning Ukraine.”

Meloni said that Ukraine would have to receive concrete security guarantees as part of any potential diplomatic deal to end the active conflict.

“Security guarantees are fundamental if we actually aspire to have peace in Ukraine,” she said. “We all know that in the past Russia has violated the agreements that it has signed. Without security guarantees, we cannot have certainty that will not happen again.”

Meloni is shameless.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sought to persuade Washington and other Nato allies to anchor those security guarantees in a concrete timeline for his country to join the US-led defence alliance. But both Biden and Trump have signaled reluctance in endorsing such a step, and so have some European leaders including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

French President Emmanuel Macron meanwhile has suggested that European troops could be deployed to Ukraine to ensure that Russia does not attack again — an idea that also lacks unanimous support in Europe.

Russian President Vladimir Putin would “welcome” any approach from Trump and was prepared for “dialogue” with the US, the Kremlin said on Thursday.

Putin’s main goal in any talks was to create new security agreements that would ensure Ukraine never joins Nato and that the US-led military alliance pulls back from some of its eastern deployments, according to a former senior Kremlin official and another person who has discussed this with the Russian president.

“He wants to change the rules of the international order so there are no threats to Russia. He is very worried about how the world will look after the war,” the former senior Kremlin official said. “Trump wants to roll back Nato anyway. The world is changing, anything can happen.”

Western officials including Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte have sought to stress the importance of Trump ensuring “peace through strength” in Ukraine, and avoiding a defeat for Kyiv that would embolden Putin and his allies in China, Iran and North Korea.

“We cannot have a situation where we have [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un and the Russian leader and [Chinese President] Xi Jinping and Iran high-fiving because we came to a deal which is not good for Ukraine, because long-term that will be a dire security threat not only to Europe but also to the US,” Rutte told the FT last month.

Rutte is a crackpot- Seriously, the idea of these leaders high fiving is so so absurd, but, it’s a good way to sell war to western audiences.

This incident caught my attention immediately for many reasons- Not the least of which is the amazing number of “coincidences” involved. Now, I’m not a coincidence theorist by nature. Yes, there are coincidences, but, not so many that it becomes completely absurd and impossibly improbable

When I first posted info on this topic, Mark said “Lynch seems the type of person who had ‘dirt’ on powerful people in the intelligence community.” Mark was correct. Based on the information from media sources he would have had intelligence on people AND nations.

Here’s another report- This time from CTV

I’m going to bold the points of interest.

ROME, Italy –

Specialist divers surveying the wreckage of the US$40 million superyacht that sank off Sicily in August, killing seven people including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch, have asked for heightened security to guard the vessel, over concerns that sensitive data locked in its safes may interest foreign governments, multiple sources told CNN.

The specialist divers are Italy’s own super secretive, special forces divers. And they’ve asked for heightened security to guard the vessel to keep this sensitive data away from other interested parties

Italian Prosecutors who have opened up a criminal probe into multiple charges of manslaughter and negligent shipwreck think the 56-metre (184-foot) yacht, the Bayesian, may contain highly sensitive data tied to a number of Western intelligence services, four sources familiar with the investigation and salvage operation said.

Lynch was associated with British, American and other intelligence services through his various companies, including the cyber security company he founded, Darktrace.

Israeli ties had been previously mentioned

That company was sold to Chicago-based private equity firm Thoma Bravo in April. Lynch, whose wife’s company Revtom Limited owned the vessel, was also an adviser to British prime ministers David Cameron and Theresa May on science, technology and cyber security during their tenures, according to British government and public Darktrace records.

The sunken vessel, lying on the seabed at a depth of some 50 metres (164 feet), is thought to have watertight safes containing two super-encrypted hard drives that hold highly classified information, including passcodes and other sensitive data, an official involved in the salvage plans, who asked not to be named, told CNN. Specialist divers with remote cameras have searched the boat extensively.

Initially, local law enforcement feared that would-be thieves might try to reach the wreckage to find expensive jewelry and other objects of value still onboard the yacht, according to divers with the Fire Brigade who spoke with CNN. Now they are concerned that the wreckage, expected to be raised in the coming weeks as part of the criminal investigation into the tragedy, will also be of interest to foreign governments, including Russia and China. They have requested that the yacht be guarded closely, both above water and with underwater surveillance.

“A formal request has been accepted and implemented for additional security of the wreckage until it can be raised,” an official with the Sicilian civil protection authority who is assisting with the criminal investigation confirmed to CNN.

Lynch, his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, American attorney Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda, British banker Jonathan Bloomer and his wife Judy, and the yacht’s onboard chef Recaldo Thomas died when the ship sank in a violent storm in the early hours of the morning.

Take note that the autopsy results for Mike Lynch and his daughter are less clear on cause of death.

Preliminary results from autopsies suggest that the Bloomer and Morvillo couples died of suffocation or “dry drowning” when the oxygen in an air bubble in a sleeping cabin ran out. Autopsy results for Lynch and his daughter were less clear.

The chef, whose body was found outside the vessel, died by drowning, the coroner said. Toxicology reports on the dead have not yet been released, but none had suffered any physical injuries when the boat went down.

Lynch’s wife Angela Bacares and 14 others survived, including the captain James Cutfield, who, along with a deckhand and the yacht’s engine room manager, is under investigation for multiple manslaughter and causing a negligent shipwreck. They have all been allowed to leave Italy.(??)

Some of the 15 survivors, of whom nine were crew members and six were passengers, including a one-year-old girl, reportedly told prosecutors that Lynch “did not trust cloud services” and always kept data drives in a secure compartment of the yacht wherever he sailed, a source with the prosecutor’s office told CNN. None of the crew or passengers who survived the incident were tested for drugs or alcohol because they were in a “state of shock,” authorities said during a news conference following the recovery of the bodies.

Morvillo represented Lynch when he was acquitted in a criminal fraud case in the US in June tied to the takeover by Hewlett Packard of his software company Autonomy, and survivors told investigators that the cruise was a celebration of that acquittal, according to the assistant prosecutor, Raffaele Cammarano. Though Lynch was acquitted of any criminal wrongdoing in the US, Hewlett Packard has indicated it will not drop its bid to collect a US$4 billion civil payout from Lynch’s estate, awarded by a British court in 2022.

In what appears to be a tragic coincidence, Lynch’s business partner Stephen Chamberlain — who was his co-defendant in the US fraud case and the former chief operating officer of Darktrace — died on August 19, the same day the Bayesian sank, after being hit by a car while out jogging two days earlier. A spokesperson for the prosecutor’s office told CNN that Cutfield told them Lynch had learned of Chamberlain’s serious condition and had planned to cut the cruise short to return to the UK to see his business partner, who had been on life support.

The Bayesian sank a few hours before Chamberlain died in the hospital, his lawyer said. Lynch would not have known of his partner’s death, and Chamberlain was in a coma so would not have known about the shipwreck, Chamberlain’s legal counsel said.

Local prosecutor Ambrogio Cartosio said no personal effects, including computers, jewelry or Lynch’s hard drives had been recovered from the vessel. However, the onboard hard drives and surveillance cameras tied to the yacht’s navigation system have been brought to investigators to determine if there is any usable data that might indicate how the yacht sank within 16 minutes of the storm hitting. The vessel did not have a traditional black box or voyage data recorder to record navigation data or audio on the bridge.

After divers complete surveys of the wreck this week, they will make suggestions for how to best raise the 473-ton vessel without spilling any of the 18,000 litres of oil and fuel still onboard, and how to make sure any sensitive data does not fall into the wrong hands. The costs of raising the ship will fall to its owner, Lynch’s widow, as is mandated by Italian maritime law.

The Italian Navy’s secretive Comsubin unit are combing the yacht for any electronic devices that might offer clues to why it sunk – as well as checking to see if any doors were left open on board.

Could they be looking for anything else? It seems that might just be the case!

la Repubblica- Palermo ( a local/ regional news article)

Un tesoro di gioielli, ma soprattutto un tesoro di informazioni contenute nei due hard disk dai quali Mike Lynch non si separava mai. A 49 metri di profondità nelle casseforti del veliero potrebbero esserci documenti di enorme valore per le intelligence di tutto il mondo.

A treasure of jewels, but above all a treasure of information contained in the two hard drives from which Mike Lynch never separated. At 49 meters deep in the safes of the sailing ship there could be documents of enormous value for intelligence around the world.

These two hard drives hold very valuable intelligence.

More info reported in the Palermo article from here

Sources told the paper the disks held: “the great digital archive of the IT entrepreneur whose clients included the British MI5, the American NSA and the Israeli services”.

The Italian newspaper said the “super drives” are protected by “cutting-edge encryption”.

Lynch reportedly did not trust the cloud to save his high-level business secrets so always had the hard drives on him.

The billionaire partly made his wealth by creating algorithms and software widely used by top Western security agencies.

His company Autonomy won high-profile contracts with governments, including a deal to provide infrastructure to the US Homeland Security for the post-9/11 war on terror.

Lynch also co-founded the cybersecurity company Darktrace and employed high-ranking intelligence agents for the firm.

There is no reason to question the existence of these hard drives or doubt they are an intelligence mother lode- all things considered.

Darktrace has developed a reputation as a sleek AI cybersecurity startup with ties to spy agencies like MI5 and the U.S. National Security Agency.

Lynch founded Darktrace in partnership with former British intelligence officials in 2013.

One of the co-founders was Stephen Haxter, a senior member of MI5’s cyber defence team, who became Darktrace’s chief executive. Then Haxter, according to Politico, hired 30-year veteran of the secret service GCHQ (the British government’s communications headquarters), Andrew France,

Former MI5 chief Jonathan Evans also served on Darktrace’s board for a time, while Jim Penrose, a 17-year US National Security Agency veteran, was in charge of the company’s US-related business. Other former spies at the company included technology director Dave Palmer, who previously worked at MI5 and GCHQ, and security director John Richardson, who worked in cyber defence for the UK government.

It’s been obvious, to me anyway, that there has been more to this incident then met the eye– Still no word on why the unsinkable ship sank

https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/bayesian-superyacht-robots-sonar-divers-deployed-pn8q6l7mx

Italy is providing special forces divers from a secretive unit of the Italian military– web archive link

Divers from an Italian navy special forces unit are searching the sunken yacht Bayesian for clues to why it went down in a storm off the coast of Sicily last month, killing seven.

About six divers from the Italian navy’s secretive Comsubin unit are combing the superyacht for electronic equipment — including data storage and CCTV footage — while checking to see if doors were left open.

“The investigating magistrate has asked Comsubin to investigate so he can check statements made by the crew of the yacht,” a source close to the investigation told The Times.

Wikipedia

The Italian Navy’s secretive Comsubin unit are combing the yacht for any electronic devices that might offer clues to why it sunk – as well as checking to see if any doors were left open on board.

The yacht’s captain and two British crew members are under investigation by Sicilian magistrates for their role in the August 19 sinking of the Bayesian, which now sits on the sea bed 50 metres down and half a mile outside the fishing port of Porticello. Seven of the 22 on board the 56-metre-long, $40 million yacht died including the British tech tycoon Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah.

The victims’ bodies were recovered by divers from Italy’s fire-fighting service before Comsubin divers moved in, supported by a navy minesweeper which has a decompression chamber to assist deep-dive operations and a high-speed vessel used to deploy the divers.

Trained for demining operations and the rescue of sailors from stricken submarines, the divers — whose identities are kept secret — hail from a small unit within Comsubin, which is the Italian navy equivalent of the British Special Boat Service.

This is a private yacht, that is alleged to have sunk in a storm. Mine sweepers and secret identity divers?

The hope is to raise the superyacht, eventually

Revton has employed Drafinsub, a Genoa-based diving company, to use sonar and a submersible robot to study the position and state of the Bayesian in order to plan how to raise it.

“With the robot we will video the hull to see how the yacht and its mast are positioned on the sea floor, while the sonar we have on a vessel can map the sea floor and check the position of the anchor and chain,” a Drafinsub official said.

Bad weather has delayed the start of the operation, which may get under way next week and will take two to three days to complete, he added. Once data is collected, Revton is expected to discuss with the local coastguard and investigating magistrates the best way to raise the Bayesian — either by using buoyancy balloons or by attaching ties to it and hoisting it to the surface.

Before that happens, 18,000 litres of fuel must be syphoned out of the yacht’s tanks in order to avoid any spillage and make the vessel lighter to lift.

https://www.standard.co.uk/showbiz/captain-glenn-shephard-below-deck-sailing-yacht-season-5-gary-king-lee-bayesian-b1180597.html

Boat enthusiasts have been eager to hear Shephard’s perspective on the tragic sinking of Bayesian, especially given his experience with Parsifal III, a superyacht from the same manufacturer. Although that’s where the two vessels similarities end, with Parsifal boasting two masts, not one. It also doesn't have a lifting keel, meaning stability is always at its maximum onboard.

Speaking of the tragedy, Shephard added: “I know there’s going to be questions, and I’m happy to address them, but I’m not going to speculate. All I can say is, my heart goes out to the family and loved ones of the people that perish. It’s a horrible tragedy, and I’ll also say it’s definitely a freak accident. You know anyone thinking about going out on a boat and worried that's going to happen - that doesn't happen and I couldn't believe that it could happen.

And yet it did.

Does the US led response have the additional goal of restricting Saudi Arabia’s ability to sell/trade/ship oil?

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2010/01/yemen-hidden-agenda-strategic-oil.html

url above for one report. Which included a piece from William Engdahl.

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2010/01/haiti-yemen-and-somalia-one-common.html?zx=3b8d2a33714fcfc9

url above for another report- Google shut down my blog two years ago- so far, but, unknown for how much longer I can access my previous reports

Included in my first linked url from William Engdahl

The Oil chokepoint and other oily affairs

The strategic significance of the region between Yemen and Somalia becomes the point of geopolitical interest. It is the site of Bab el-Mandab, one of what the US Government lists as seven strategic world oil shipping chokepoints. The US Government Energy Information Agency states that “closure of the Bab el-Mandab could keep tankers from the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal/Sumed pipeline complex, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa. The Strait of Bab el-Mandab is a chokepoint between the horn of Africa and the Middle East, and a strategic link between the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean.” [9]

Bab el-Mandab, between Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. Oil and other exports from the Persian Gulf must pass through Bab el-Mandab before entering the Suez Canal. In 2006, the Energy Department in Washington reported that an estimated 3.3 million barrels a day of oil flowed through this narrow waterway to Europe, the United States, and Asia. Most oil, or some 2.1 million barrels a day, goes north through the Bab el-Mandab to the Suez/Sumed complex into the Mediterranean.

An excuse for a US or NATO militarization of the waters around Bab el-Mandab would give Washington another major link in its pursuit of control of the seven most critical oil chokepoints around the world, a major part of any future US strategy aimed at denying oil flows to China, the EU or any region or country that opposes US policy.

Given that significant flows of Saudi oil pass through Bab el-Mandab, a US military control there would serve to deter the Saudi Kingdom from becoming serious about transacting future oil sales with China or others no longer in dollars, as was recently reported by UK Independent journalist Robert Fisk.

Included in my second report (second url)

Yemen and Somalia are on either side “of Bab el-Mandab”

The Strait of Bab el-Mandab is a chokepoint between the horn of Africa and the Middle East, and a strategic link between the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean.” Bab el-Mandab, between Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. Oil and other exports from the Persian Gulf must pass through Bab el-Mandab before entering the Suez Canal.

Background out of the way- let’s read this latest from Al Jazeera

Keeping in mind the US is working on a coalition of the willing to tackle the Houthi Red sea issue

The United States on Tuesday announced the formation of a 10-nation coalition to deter the attacks that threaten to disrupt trade passing through one of the busiest maritime routes in the world.

Only six are named – Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Seychelles and the United Kingdom

How seriously are they disrupting trade?

The Bab al-Mandeb is where 12 percent of the total global seaborne trade of oil, as well as 8 percent of liquified natural gas, passed through in the first half of 2023, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That is 8.8 million barrels per day of oil and 4.1 billion cubic feet per day of LNG.

More than 17,000 ships pass through it each year, some heading to the Suez Canal that takes them to the Mediterranean and acts as the link between Asia and the West.

Who could get affected the worst?

Israel, the first direct intended target of the Houthis, has already felt an impact from the disrupted maritime trade.

Traffic through its southern port of Eilat, located in the city which is also a tourist destination, has come to a halt, and the foreseeable future seems uncertain as the war rages.

Egypt, which was already facing an ailing economy before the war, could suffer heavily from the slowed trade, in addition to decreased transit fees

Europe and states in the Mediterranean are poised to suffer the most losses if the current situation persists

What do the Houthis stand to gain?

The Houthis have steadily consolidated their power within Yemen over the years.

It was inevitable for them to wish to secure recognition from the international community as the legitimate government in Yemen as well, according to Thomas Juneau, an assistant professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa.

“They will not obtain that for the foreseeable future, but at the very least they want to force the international community to deal with them as the de facto governing authority in the country,” he told Al Jazeera.

Saleh, was previous the leader of Yemen. Another American/NATO lackey.

Saleh developed deeper ties with Western powers, especially the United States, during the War on Terror.

Saudi Arabia has not joined in with the coalition so far

Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia agreed with Tehran, a close Houthi ally, to restore formal diplomatic ties after a seven-year rift.

With the Yemeni talks and Iran rapprochement hanging in the balance, the (Saudi) kingdom has not joined the US-led military alliance. Other Arab heavyweights like the United Arab Emirates and Egypt have not joined either.

Go back to the piece from 2013

a US military control there would serve to deter the Saudi Kingdom from becoming serious about transacting future oil sales with China or others

Are certain parties looking to restrict and punish Saudi Arabia?? I’m sure there are other reasons the US is looking to create the coalition too, but, reining in a recalcitrant Saudi Arabia might just be a factor worth considering.

The present government has closed the airspace above Niger, obviously in anticipation of some foreign intervention via the skies above. Clearly, an attempt to thwart this intervention.

The US has had direct contact with the present day government and have asked they step aside

US says had 'direct contact' with coup leaders in Niger to urge them to 'step aside' https://t.co/JBWKicldld pic.twitter.com/RkHYZMBO0m

— Anadolu English (@anadoluagency) August 7, 2023

After Niger’s coup, the drums of war are growing louder

So is opposition to restoring the government by force

The Economist

ASSIROU MAHAMADOU, a vegetable seller perched on a stool in Niamey, the capital of Niger, does not look like a fighter. Yet at the mention of threats by Niger’s neighbours to use force to reinstate Mohamed Bazoum, the president who was ousted in a coup on July 26th, he swells with anger. “If they come here, we [civilians] are going to war alongside the army.” He is outraged that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the regional bloc, is considering sending troops to battle the junta, even as it has done little to fight the jihadists that he says are the bigger threat. “ECOWAS has weapons to attack Niger but not to kill the terrorists,” he says. “It’s a disgrace.”

Weapons to attack Niger, but, not to kill terrorists… That’s curious isn’t it?

What’s also curious are the reports that Al Qaeda has circled Wagner fighters trying to enter Niger.

I’ve been looking for more information to confirm these claims.. However, these types of claims are believable based on the fact that Niger has a “terrorist”problem. And Al Qaeda is every where the US needs it to be! Always. That said it appears some Wagner fighters/mercenaries did get into Niger or were already present.

Georgia Meloni has taken some serious swipes at Macron- Italy and Africa have an extensive history- For bad and for good. Also interesting. Her speeches have the benefit of playing to the domestic Italian audience at this time, which is being over run with refugees.. that’s a problem for the nation and her people. France doesn’t care because historically they’ve treated Italy as the poor cousins in Europe- Which is a shame because Italy has an extensive ancient history- It’s people are survivors. And the country is beautiful beyond words .

My ancestors are from Italy, what else could you expect me to say

Back before big tech censorship became so all pervasive, yours truly was one of the first people on line reporting on the American destabilization of Syria.. I had grown quite a readership, on that topic too. As well as having a Syrian, from Aleppo, regularly leaving comments about what was going on. As the situation worsened that commenter disappeared. Never to be heard from again. I expect that he went to Turkey. But can’t be sure, of course.

A ‘contractor’ was killed in a drone strike in occupied Syria. A contractor is, of course, the sanitized way of saying a mercenary/hired gun was killed. That will be our staring point for this latest news.

Oilprice.com

Late on Thursday, the U.S. conducted airstrikes in eastern Syria against Iran-affiliated groups after a U.S. contractor was killed in an attack with a drone that the U.S. intelligence community assesses to be of Iranian origin.

The intelligence community determined the UAV to be of Iranian origin, the U.S. Department of Defense added.

No idea how this was determined. However, the use of the word ‘determined’ leads me to suspect this may have been a false flag op to justify the airstrikes the US has been itchin’ to undertake. Determined does not suggest there is any evidence to support the claim. Determined just means that the US was committed to this idea and carried through as they desired

Joe Biden: U.S. will respond ‘forcefully’ to Iranian aggression after drone attack

But the US is not looking for a confrontation with Iran– Biden who suffering from split personality as well as dementia claims “We don’t ‘seek conflict with Iran’” -Yes, they are. That’s obvious. And they’ve looked for conflict with Iran for as long as I can recall. Think of the Iran/Iraq conflict. Where the US simply had Iraq do the dirty work. Like Ukraine at this time

“To make no mistake, the United States does not—does not, emphasize— seek conflict with Iran,” Biden said

But the strikes that we took last night were intended to send a very clear message that we will take the protection of our personnel seriously and that we will respond quickly and decisively if they’re threatened.”

Except American forces have no legitimate right or reason to be in Syria. If they were not illegal occupiers their mercenaries would be out of harms way.

DoD

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, at the direction of President Joe Biden, authorized U.S. Central Command forces to conduct precision strikes into eastern Syria against facilities used by groups affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder during a news conference today. “The airstrikes were conducted in response to yesterday’s attack, as well as a series of recent attacks against coalition forces in Syria by groups affiliated with the IRGC,” he said. 

F-15E fighters assigned in Centcom launched the attack at approximately 2:40 a.m. local time. “We’re continuing to assess the outcome of the strikes,” Ryder said. “Initial indications are that the facilities were destroyed. These precision strikes were intended to protect and defend U.S. personnel, and the U.S. took proportionate and deliberate action intended to limit the risk of escalation and minimize casualties.” 

This morning, Iranian-backed groups launched 10 rockets that targeted coalition forces at the Green Village in northeast Syria. The attack resulted in no injuries to U.S. or coalition personnel and no damage to U.S. equipment or facilities, Ryder said.  

Iran is a source of instability all around the region. Ryder noted-

And he said that with a straight face! We know that Saudi Arabia and Iran have recently made a reconciliation deal. That deal doesn’t speak of being a source of instability in the region.

“The United States and our coalition allies and partners … are focused on trying to ensure stability, security in these regions,” Ryder said

Canada has relocated 425 White Helmet terrorists to Canada

This gives me the warm, fuzzies for sure- NOT

Members of the White Helmets, a volunteer search-and-rescue force that has been credited with saving lives in Syria, have arrived in Canada.

Being credited with something doesn’t mean that’s what actually occurred. And the White Helmets ended more lives in Syria than they saved, if they saved any lives at all- Other than their own

That year, 422 members of 50 White Helmet families were moved through the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, and then onward to Jordan, where they were to remain until they could be resettled abroad. This was a result of diplomatic arrangements that officials in Ottawa had helped broker.

While most members of the group were rapidly resettled in Canada, Britain or Europe, more than 40 people remained in limbo for years.

Those suspected of ties to militant groups or any efforts to overthrow “any state” can legally be barred from coming to Canada.

But it has never been clear whether concerns like those were behind the delay in this case. The standoff persisted for years, even as Canadian government officials vowed to relocate several of the families. In the fall of 2021, Global Affairs Canada announced it had moved one family to an undisclosed third country.

Nearly five years on, it is not clear how the impasse was resolved.

Any of my readers recall these murderous monsters sawing the head off of a child in Syria. I do. The little I did see of that atrocious video was simply horrific.

Italian rapprochement with al- assad backed by right wing but constrained by the west

Italy took the initiative to respond to the Feb.6 earthquake in the regime-held areas with rapid and successive steps and under humanitarian cover. It was the first European country to send two aid convoys via Lebanon on the seventh day of the earthquake, which included four ambulances and six packages of medical supplies.

Right-led steps

Meloni, before assuming the presidency of the Italian government, showed strong support for al-Assad’s remaining in power, as well as her support for the survival of his Russian ally, Iranian militias, and Hezbollah within the Syrian map.

Meloni leads the Brothers of Italy party, which belongs to the extreme right-wing, which makes her support for the Syrian regime linked to allegations that “the Christian community in Syria is still standing thanks to the government of the Syrian regime, Russia, Iran and (Hezbollah),” according to what she mentioned during a press statement in 2018.

Meloni isn’t wrong about that. Had it not been for Assad the Christian community would have been obliterated. Many were cleared out when the PKK ethnically cleansed vast swathes of territory and they relocated to parts of Syria controlled by Assad.

Italy’s steps towards rapprochement with the regime could reach the extent of reopening the Syrian embassy in Rome and the Italian embassy in Damascus, noting that this will not happen soon, Scalinci said.

Italy’s relationship with the US and European countries is a major factor that explains why Italy did not give full legitimacy to the Syrian regime and avoided formalizing diplomatic relations with the Damascus regime, according to the GSA’s executive director, Cafiero.