Interesting read @ Responsible Statecraft

As soon as the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran ended without an agreement, President Donald Trump fired a volley of angry tweets venting his frustration. As a concrete step to force Iranian concessions, he announced a blockade of Iranian ports along the Persian Gulf.

Cut off Tehran’s oil exports, the logic goes, and the regime will have no choice but to bend to Trump’s will.

This thought process is being echoed and amplified by influential Washington voices who should know better. Take Dennis Ross, a former Middle East peace negotiator, who argued that “the blockade always made more sense than seizing Kharg Island. It stops Iran’s exports, its revenues, is a counterpoint to their closing the Straits.” He also thinks that the measure will “put pressure on China to pressure Iran.”

Meanwhile, Richard Haass, the former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, praised the announcement and suggested the U.S. should “also propose a new governance authority for the Strait in which Iran participates but doesn’t control.”

This is wishcasting disguised as strategy. A blockade is not a clever alternative to military strikes. It is, in fact, an act of war — and one that carries serious risks.

The very idea of an American blockade ignores the legal reality: under international law, Article 3(c) of the U.N. General Assembly’s Definition of Aggression (1974) considers a naval blockade of a sovereign state’s coasts an act of armed aggression. That entitles Iran to use all necessary means to defend itself.

You cannot propose a “governance authority” while your warships are blockading a nation’s lifeline. Haass’s suggestion of a structure where Iran “participates but doesn’t control” is therefore a non-starter. Tehran will never surrender control of its sovereign waters to an arrangement designed by the same power that just declared a blockade.

That is a recipe for continued escalation. And for the Trump administration, a resumption of a shooting war with Iran would be far less popular and far more costly than Ross or Haass seem to acknowledge.

But there is an even more dangerous scenario that no supporter of the blockade addresses. Major buyers of Iranian oil — most notably China — could decide to escort tankers with their own naval vessels. Beijing has a strong economic incentive to call Washington’s bluff. Ross claims a blockade “puts great pressure on China to pressure Iran,” but what if China pressures the U.S. instead? What would the U.S. Navy do then? Fire on Chinese warships? Let the convoys pass, effectively ending the blockade? Risk a direct confrontation with a nuclear-armed power over oil lanes in Hormuz?

The stakes could not be higher as Trump prepares to embark on a visit to China for a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Trump has already postponed the meeting once because of the war with Iran. Postponing it for the second time, or going to Beijing with, using Trump’s own language, weak cards, would be an embarrassing blow to American standing.

So is Trump’s blockade threat a serious policy or bluster? That remains unclear. But one thing is certain: the mere threat of a U.S. blockade is enough to drive oil prices higher and inject dangerous volatility into global markets. On Monday, when the blockade is expected to enter into force, the oil price bounced back to over $100 per barrel. The view that a blockade is a clean, low-risk pressure tool is a dangerous illusion.

Read the above article entirely at the Responsible Statecraft link

Interesting listen

… read at link above

Stock futures jump, oil prices retreat on report Trump willing to end war

The president is willing to end hostilities even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, WSJ reports

Iran Invasion would be America’s greatest strategic mistake yet

James D. Durso is the Managing Director of Corsair LLC, a supply chain consultancy. In 2013

A U.S. invasion of Iran would be militarily overwhelming and likely unwinnable, requiring massive troops, long occupation, and heavy casualties.
It would trigger global backlash and instability—spiking oil prices, strengthening rivals like Russia/China, and uniting Iranians behind the regime.
The human and economic costs would be enormous, making diplomacy and containment a far more viable strategy than war.

The ghosts of Baghdad and Kabul should be enough to silence any serious talk of sending American troops into Iran. Yet here we are again, with voices in Washington and Tel Aviv whispering that only boots on the ground can neutralize Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, its local allies and its regional mischief.

They are wrong. An American invasion of Iran would be a strategic catastrophe, a moral failure and a self-inflicted wound from which the United States might never fully recover.

Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war

Foreign central banks have slashed their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Federal Reserve to the lowest level since 2012, as countries sell the US government bonds to prop up their economies and currencies in the wake of the Iran war.
The value of Treasuries held in custody at the New York Fed by official institutions — a group that is largely made up of central banks but also includes governments and international institutions — has dropped by $82bn since February 25 to $2.7tn, according to Fed data.
Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who studies foreign holdings of Treasuries, said oil importers such as Turkey, India and Thailand are probably among those selling Treasuries as they pay higher prices for oil, which is denominated in dollars.

As thousands of additional American troops deploy to the Middle East, President Donald Trump says Iran has eased a weeks-long choke point at the Strait of Hormuz, allowing 20 boats to pass. The shift comes amid a report that the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations inside Iran, while stopping short of a full-scale invasion. NBC correspondent Matt Bradley reported the latest developments.

Slate.com- Iran war, oil futures and insider trading

Last week, President Donald Trump did a funny two-step on Iran. He began by threatening to “obliterate” Iranian power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz was safely opened back up. He gave a 48-hour deadline. Then, right before that deadline hit, Trump pulled back on his ultimatum. But, a few minutes before he did that, the oil markets saw a massive spike in activity. A spike so huge that it seems clear that somebody knew something.

It sure looked like closely guarded national security information was being used to make a quick buck. As Nobel Prize–winning economist Paul Krugman reasons, if a spy were giving our adversaries this kind of info, we’d certainly call it treason. So why not use the same language now?

This is also not the first time White House moves have been tied to suspicious trading patterns. When the president rolled out and then clawed back “Liberation Day” tariffs a year ago, some wondered whether Trump was putting the country on a financial roller coaster so that his pals could buy the dips. In other words, everything here is happening out in the open

It’s pretty safe to say insider trading is going on

Seizing Kharg Island would risk US troops but may not end the Iran war

Trump is considering deploying ground troops to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s crucial oil export hub, as military leverage in ongoing conflict negotiations.
Military experts warn seizing the island would risk American soldiers’ lives without guaranteeing victory, citing Iran’s proximity and advanced weaponry.
A safer alternative: establish a naval blockade against Iranian oil shipments, experts say, outside the range of Iran’s weapons systems.

If Trump wants to hobble Iran’s oil industry for leverage in negotiations, a better option might be setting up a blockade at sea against ships that have filled up at Kharg Island’s oil terminals, the experts said.

The island — located on the other side of the Persian Gulf from U.S. bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia — is the beating heart of Iran’s oil industry, through which 90% of its exports pass. It is important because Iran’s coastline is mostly too shallow for tanker ships to dock.

Not a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian facility

The cause of the fire in the production of Nizhnekamskneftekhim was the ignition of the gas mixture in the operation to eliminate the consequences of depressurization of the equipment. This was reported by the press service of the company.

“When working to eliminate the consequences of depressurization of equipment in the production of synthetic rubber Nizhnekamskneftekhim from the source established for today, there was an ignition of the gas mixture with subsequent explosion,” the report said.

The company reports that the fire was localized, and now the residual fire is being eliminated. There are no risks of fire spreading, as there were regular cuts of equipment and other technological operations provided for the security of the enterprise.

In addition, experts monitor the quality of atmospheric air.

More than 150 personnel and 54 units of equipment of the Russian Emergencies Ministry are involved in extinguishing.

Forward.com– Israel barbaric death penalty law

The bill mandating the death penalty for (so called or alleged) terrorists, which the Knesset passed into law on Monday, is the latest dismal illustration of Israel’s democratic decline.

Promoted by the ultranationalist firebrand National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir — whose resume includes convictions for supporting terrorism of the Jewish kind — the bill is plainly aimed at Palestinians only. It specifically targets West Bank residents, who are tried in military courts, which Jews are not. It will drag Israel another few steps further away from the democratic world, almost all of which — with the notable exception of the United States — has abandoned the death penalty as inhumane and flawed in its irreversibility.

Al Jazeera

Prepare to pay more for food: Nova Scotia farmers hit hard by skyrocketing cost of fertilizer, diesel from Iran war disruptions

The American-Israeli invasion of Iran, and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is having a devastating effect on the cost of vital fertilizers. Nitrogen is a fundamental component in the mixes used by local food producers, but one third of the global supply comes from Persian Gulf nations so a massive amount of that stock can’t be delivered because of the Iranian shipping blockade.

There is not so much of an actual blockade as there are issues with insurance- Some ships are going through.

Based on current prices, using the usual amounts of fertilizer this season will cost about 40 per cent more. Laying out that kind of extra cash at the beginning of the growing season is a tough pill to swallow.

But putting less on the fields to try to save money in the short term would reduce yields dramatically, which would be a heavy financial hit on the back end. Put another way, farmers are between a rock and a hard place.

Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr appointed as new secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC).

The announcement was made on Tuesday by Seyyed Mehdi Tabatabaei, deputy for communications at the Iranian president’s office, in a post on social media platform X.

Tabatabaei said the appointment was made with the consent of Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

US marines deploy as Trump pressures Iran on oil route

Sen. Dave McCormick, R-Pa., joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to discuss President Donald Trump’s Iran deadline, rising military pressure in the Middle East and the potential impact on oil prices and U.S. national security.

Just a few news articles.. for your reading enjoyment?!

1- We already know Trump manipulated the stock market yesterday.

2-Trump claims there are negotiations with Iran. Iran denies there are any negotiations taking place

Of course, how could they? Nothing is confirmed. It’s like one big false narrative

Check this- UK confirms Iran unsuccessfully targeted military base. No hits what is to confirm- obviously there is nothing.

U.K. Communities Secretary Steve Reed

I’m not aware of any assessment at all that they are even trying to target Europe, let alone that they could if they tried,” Reed said. “But even if they did, we have the necessary military capability to defend this country.”

So Iranian missiles can’t reach Europe?- that’s not what’s being claimed in the media

Arab News

The  White House and the British embassy in Washington and Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment

TEHRAN : Iran ( allegedly) fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia but did not hit the US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing multiple US officials.
One of the missiles failed in flight, while a US warship fired an SM-3 interceptor at the other, although it could not be determined if the interception succeeded, the newspaper said. The Journal did not specify when the missiles were fired.
The White House and the British embassy in Washington and Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

Nothing hit Diego Garcia

One of the missiles failed in flight (allegedly)

Another was fired upon by US warship interceptor (allegedly) since the US can't determine if their interception succeeded.

And no one is responding to media requests for comment

Lastly Iran has denied the whole thing

A senior Iranian official told Al Jazeera on Sunday that Iran was not responsible for and was not behind missile attacks on the Diego Garcia military base in the Indian Ocean.

My conclusion- Entirely fake story.

UPDATE!!!

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte CANNOT Confirm Israel’s claim that Iran attempted to hit Diego Garcia

MARGARET BRENNAN: Good morning. We did see that Iran fired two missiles at Diego Garcia. That’s that island in the Indian Ocean, which houses a U.S. UK joint base. That was 4000 kilometers from Iranian territory, furthest Iran has ever gone. You just heard Ambassador Waltz say there might be a difference there in how Israel and the U.S. assess that capability Iran has in terms of what they fired. But Israel says these were intercontinental ballistic missiles that could hit Berlin, Paris and Rome. Does NATO share that Israeli assessment?

DOES NATO SHARE/AGREE WITH THE ISRAELI ASSESSMENT?

SECRETARY GENERAL RUTTE: We cannot confirm that at the moment, so we're looking into that. But if this would be true, it is the more evidence that what the President is doing here, taking out the ballistic missile capability, taking out the nuclear capability from Iran, is crucial.

Answer NATO does not share or agree with the Israeli assessment- Nor can they confirm the claim at the moment. But, if it was true? “Looking into it”??

Israel lied, and/or fired missiles themselves at Diego Garcia.

I don’t know that America has many friends, since Trump has gone to great lengths to alienate so many nations. Anyway..

The Economist via archive.ph

The superpower has lost control of its foreign policy, writes Badr Albusaidi, Oman’s chief diplomat

TWICE IN NINE months the United States and Iran have been on the verge of a real deal on the most difficult issue that divides them: Iran’s nuclear-energy programme and American fears that it could be a weapons programme.

So it was a shock but not a surprise when on February 28th—just a few hours after the latest and most substantive talks—Israel and America again launched an unlawful military strike against the peace that had briefly appeared really possible.

Go back to my Feb 26/26 post- Significant Progress Made- World peace tossed, the global economy, ruined by Usrael

Iran’s retaliation against what it claims are American targets on the territory of its neighbours was an inevitable, if deeply regrettable and completely unacceptable, result. Faced with what both Israel and America described as a war designed to terminate the Islamic Republic, this was probably the only rational option available to the Iranian leadership.

Trump’s window for face-saving exit may be closing now

Escalation is only putting him in a lose-lose situation, so negotiating is the only option. However, Iran’s growing leverage could prevent an easy off-ramp.

The developments of the past 24 hours may prove a turning point in this war: Israel and America’s escalation by striking oil facilities at the Qatari-Iranian Pars field, and in Asaluyeh, Iran’s massive retaliation against oil and gas installations in Saudi, Qatar and beyond, which shot up oil prices, the near downing of an American F-35 fighter by Iran, and Secretary Bessent’s revelations that the U.S. may un-sanction Iranian oil on the waters to bring down oil prices.

Plan A came crashing down after it became clear that the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei neither brought the implosion of the theocracy nor their surrender. As a result, Washington is increasingly letting the Israelis drive the bus, by virtue of them having a plan, even though their plan does not serve U.S. interests (the Israelis want to prolong the war to degrade Iran’s entire industrial base, regardless of what happens to energy markets, Trump’s presidency, and security in the region as a whole.)

The Israeli strike against the Pars field, coordinated with the U.S., is particularly important because it violated a promise Trump made to Qatar back in September 2025 that Israel would no longer be allowed to strike Qatar.

But that gas field is shared by both Iran and Qatar, hence it was an attack on Qatar as well as on Iran. With American coordination. This — and the impact on energy markets — may explain why Trump took to social media to blame Israel for the attack and publicly forbade them from striking further energy fields.

But Bessent’s comments about un-sanctioning Iranian oil currently sitting in tankers on the sea are the most important. Though it’s primarily done to push down oil prices, it appears that we may have nevertheless entered sanctions relief territory out of necessity.

I wrote several days ago that Tehran is very unlikely to end the war even if the U.S. pulls out and declares victory. Iran has leverage for the first time in years and will seek to trade it in. It has publicly demanded a closing of American bases, reparations, and sanctions relief in order to stop shooting at Israel and open the Straits. The first may happen over time anyway, the second is highly unlikely, but the third — sanctions relief — may become more plausible as the cost of the war rises, and escalation strategies become increasingly suicidal for Trump.

To understand the sheer desperation of the US administration

Scott Bessent-

“In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that’s on the ​water. It’s about 140 million barrels,” Bessent told Fox Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria” program.

He said the release of the sanctioned Iranian oil ​into global supplies would help keep oil prices down for the next 10 to 14 days. ⁠Oil prices have been above $100 per barrel for much of the past two weeks as Iran has closed the Strait of ​Hormuz to shipping and has attacked tankers.

The Trump cult types are pushing this as a win against Iran. This is insanity.

1st- How much will this move reduce oil prices, if at all? Bessent doesn’t say. It isn’t going to make any sort of substantive difference

2nd- They most probably will not sell the oil in American dollars.

The US and Israel should not have attacked Iran, nearly 3 weeks ago.. The fall out from this is going to be, globally, economically and environmentally extremely unfortunate perhaps even catastrophic– We ain’t seen nothing yet!

Not so much.

Behind the Curtain: Trump’s escalation trap

Why it matters:

Trump could wind up trapped between his caprice and the realities of war. He expects a quick, clear victory. But unlike tariffs that can be swiftly imposed and rescinded, the war’s outcome is beyond unilateral control and quick fixes. And Iran gets a say.
Trump is working to help break the Persian Gulf oil jam. But in doing so, he risks getting caught in an “escalation trap,” where a stronger force is incentivized to keep attacking to demonstrate dominance amid diminishing returns.

State of play:

Israel wants regime change in Iran and more dramatic military destruction as it weighs an invasion of Lebanon. Bibi Netanyahu has shown several times that when it comes to Iran, he has the ability to convince Trump to take his side.

Iran wants survival — and to prove it can impose pain, militarily and economically, to scare off future attacks.
And other nations want the free flow of oil and commerce through the Middle East's waters and air.

What we’re watching: Averaging out the timelines mentioned by Trump and his aides, it’s fair to assume the administration expected an intense military operation lasting about 4-6 weeks. That makes April 1 (Day 33 of the war) a real gut-check moment.

But in Washington and in capitals around the world, officials are preparing for a much longer crisis. Axios' Barak Ravid tells us he's heard from three different people in the administration and in allied countries who believe the instability in the Middle East and U.S. involvement could continue until September, even if the war shifts to a low-intensity conflict.
Israel told journalists it plans at least three more weeks of attacks on thousands of additional targets in Iran.

Behind the scenes:

Trump has grown accustomed to doing what he wants and then quickly improvising if things go south. But this time, some in his inner circle have what one official called “buyer’s remorse” — growing fears that attacking Iran was a mistake.

Iran and U.S. have been in direct contact in recent days, sources say

A direct communications channel between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been reactivated in recent days, according to a U.S. official and a source with knowledge.

Why it matters:

It’s not clear how substantive the messages passed between Araghchi and Witkoff were, but it’s the first known direct communication between the parties since the war started more than two weeks ago.

Behind the scenes:

The U.S. official and the source with knowledge said Araghchi sent text messages to Witkoff that focused on ending the war.

Drop Site News reported on Monday that Witkoff had sent messages to Araghchi and quoted Iranian officials who claimed the Iranian foreign minister was ignoring the White House envoy's messages.
The U.S. official claimed it was Araghchi who was attempting to engage, but told Axios the U.S. "is not talking" to Iran.
Neither of the sources spoke in detail about how many texts had been exchanged or about their content.

Has there been contact? Perhaps?

Trump family profiteering-

Nothing new, in politics, however, Trump railed against Biden’s nepotism. Yet, it looks to me as if the entire Trump clan is using their political ties to make money and lots of it

The U.S. military desperately needs drone capabilities for President Donald Trump’s war in Iran, and fast. Coincidentally, his sons Eric and Donald Trump Jr., are on the case.

Indeed, the Trump brothers are pumping money into defense-tech oriented firms that have already secured Pentagon contracts, or have already put battle-tested products to market. For example, they’ve invested in Powerus, a new drone company aiming to harness its “strong relationship with Ukraine” as a means to acquire and leverage war-tried Ukrainian drone technologies in a competitive U.S. market. Having bought out several competitors, Powerus already does business with the U.S. military.

In other words, the Trump family stands to benefit financially from the war, and already are.

Eric Trump also invests in Israeli drone firm and DoD contractor Xtend, whose “low cost-per kill” attack drones have been used by the IDF in Gaza. Expanding to the U.S., the company opened an office near Tampa last summer.

Donald Trump Jr. has a $4 million stake in, and sits on the board of Unusual Machines, a drone parts startup. In December, it secured a $620 million DoD loan — the largest loan in the history of the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital — to make drone parts.

I’ve written twice about the use of US replica of the Shahed recently

Turkey, next Iran- we have seen the script

If the United States and Israel succeed in destroying Iran, Turkey may be next. This is no longer a speculative provocation whispered on the margins of Washington’s ( If these were “whispers”how the heck did I hear them?) think tank ecosystem. It is increasingly an articulated narrative, voiced by senior Israeli political figures, echoed by right wing American commentators, and amplified by a growing constellation of states allied with Israel.

The language being used is not new. Rather, it is a familiar script – one that has preceded sanctions, destabilisation, and war across the Middle East for decades. The implications are unmistakable: a powerful regional actor that refuses subordination to Israel is being rebranded as an existential threat requiring containment – or worse.

This shift is not merely rhetorical. Bennett explicitly argued that “a weakened Tehran” creates “a summons to hunt down enemies ‘throughout the Middle East’ before they can solidify.” In this formulation, Turkey is no longer a rival power – it is a future target.

The warning signs extend beyond Bennett.

On 27 February, former Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant also escalated criticism of Ankara. While Gallant emphasized diplomacy, he simultaneously gestured towards coercive measures, suggesting Western states reconsider arms sales to Turkey, despite its status as a NATO member. The contradiction in this proposed strategy is revealing – because diplomacy, in this framing, is not engagement between equals but pressure designed to force Turkey back into alignment with Israel.

Rupture in Israel– Turkey relations

The deterioration of relations between Turkey and Israel did not occur in a vacuum. Since coming to power in the early 2000s, Erdogan has been increasingly critical of Israel, particularly following Israel’s 2010 attack on a Gaza bound flotilla that killed ten Turkish activists – a defining rupture in bilateral relations. Israel’s military operations against Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, over the past decade and a half has further inflamed Turkish public opinion, pushing Ankara towards an openly confrontational stance against Israel’s genocidal policies and territorial ambitions, especially after October 2023.

Recall my mentioning Turkey being subject to an intentionally misleading propaganda campaign, most often presented in the alternative media?

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently outlined a “hexagon of alliances” – including India, Greece, Cyprus, and unspecified Arab, African, and Asian countries – designed to constrain Turkey’s regional influence. In recent months, Israel has hosted the leaders of Greece, Cyprus, and India to cement this alliance. (Could this be why the Duran’s 2 Alex’s endlessly harp on against Turkey?)

Iran let Turkish-owned ship cross Hormuz strait, Turkish minister says

A Turkish-owned ship was able to cross the Strait of Hormuz with Iran’s permission, Turkey’s transport minister said.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical shipping route that Iran has closed since Israel and the United States attacked it on February 28.

“We have 15 Turkish-owned ships in the Strait of Hormuz and were able to get one of them through after obtaining permission from the Iranian authorities,” Abdulkadir Uraloglu told journalists late Thursday, in comments only published today.

The US has long targeted Turkish banks- I know because that’s a topic I’ve written on! (Censored site) Turkey helping Iran circumvent the insane US sanctions regime..

The Hill

The Turkish state-owned lender Halkbank has served as a conduit for illicit Iranian financing networks. It was indicted in the U.S. in 2019 for one of the largest sanctions-evasion schemes in modern history, and at least two of its employees were convicted during the first Trump administration for their involvement.

The US is playing for time with Turkey-

**Good read- War, Inflation, and the Hidden Costs of Closing the World’s Most Important Strait

The article actually talks about 2 chokepoints, excerpts below, read entirely at link above

I want to talk about the thing nobody in Washington seems willing to say out loud, which is that the cost of this war is going to show up at your kitchen table before it shows up in any congressional budget hearing.

But I’m not writing about the war. Not really. I’m writing about what the war is doing to the invisible infrastructure of the global economy, the shipping lanes and insurance markets, fertilizer contracts, and airfreight corridors that nobody thinks about until they break.

Because they’re breaking right now, in ways that will take months to repair, and the people who will pay for it aren’t the ones making the decisions.

The Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Through that gap moves roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil, about 20.9 million barrels per day. It also carries a significant share of global liquefied natural gas, a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer exports, and a meaningful slice of container traffic linking Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

It is, as of right now, essentially closed.

Not formally. Nobody has dropped a chain across it. But Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the waterway shut to allied shipping.

Protection and indemnity insurers pulled coverage. War-risk premiums, which had already tripled in the days before the strikes, became irrelevant once insurers stopped offering any coverage at all.

And without insurance, no shipowner will send a vessel through. It’s not the missiles that closed the Strait. It’s the actuarial tables.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from an average of 138 vessels per day to roughly two.

One hundred and fifty tankers are sitting at anchor in open Gulf waters.

One hundred and forty-seven container ships are trapped inside the Persian Gulf, unable to exit.

Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, every major container line, has suspended operations. Maersk paused two key services linking the Middle East to Asia and Europe and halted all trans-Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Houthis, who had eased up on Red Sea attacks in recent months, announced they’re resuming. So now both chokepoints are closed, and the only way around is the Cape of Good Hope, which adds 10 to 14 days to every voyage.

This is what a dual chokepoint crisis looks like. It’s never happened before in modern container shipping.

Let me put this in dollars.

LNG shipping charter rates went from $40,000 a day to $300,000 a day in less than a week. That’s a 650 percent increase.

Asian spot LNG prices doubled.

Qatar halted all LNG production at its Ras Laffan hub, the largest LNG export complex on Earth, after Iranian drones hit facilities there, and declared force majeure on its contracts.

Qatar and the UAE together supply roughly 20 percent of the world’s LNG, and 85 percent of Qatar’s exports go to Asia.

The Oil Shock You Were Promised You’d Never See Again

Crude oil has risen roughly 50 percent since February 28. That’s not a typo.

Brent was trading around $70 a barrel before the strikes. It touched $119 overnight. (it has since come down)

WTI has moved from $67 to over $115.

Iraq, the second-largest OPEC producer, has seen output from its three main southern oilfields collapse by 70 percent, from 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million, because there’s nowhere to put the oil.

Kuwait has cut production preemptively. The UAE is “carefully managing offshore production levels.”

Everyone in the Gulf is producing less because the tankers can’t get out.

Meanwhile, Israel struck a major fuel storage facility near Tehran over the weekend.

Saudi Arabia’s 550,000-barrel-per-day Ras Tanura refinery has been hit twice. Drones even targeted Saudi Aramco’s million-barrel-per-day Shaybah oil field.

We are watching the physical destruction of energy infrastructure in real time, which means this isn’t just a shipping problem. Even when the Strait reopens, some of this supply isn’t coming back quickly.

Did Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu consider these realities before striking Iran? Or was their hubris so great, they didn’t consider the possibility that Iran wouldn’t fall immediately?

Did Trump consider he would end up having to ease Russian oil sanctions in an attempt to try to keep global oil prices down?

**Trump eases Russian oil sanctions as Iran war sends prices spiking

The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil, a boost to the Kremlin as Washington tries to contain energy prices sent soaring by the American-Israeli assault on Iran.

The announcement failed to immediately calm oil prices, which have spiraled since Tehran effectively closed the vital Strait of Hormuz oil chokepoint and began attacking energy facilities across neighboring Gulf countries.

The international benchmark of Brent crude rose again overnight, sitting just above $100 a barrel as of 6 a.m. ET. Markets worldwide slipped, with U.S. stock futures down following slumps across Asia and Europe.

Announcing the move Thursday evening, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that until April 11 countries would be able to buy Russian oil that was already at sea.

That moves seems really at odds with the US sanctions regime.

**Europe Negotiating With Iran For Oil Access Through Strait—As U.S. Still Blocked—Report Says

Specifically France and Italy.

France and Italy have reportedly opened talks with Iranian officials in hopes of negotiating a deal to allow their vessels through the Strait of Hormuz after a weekslong standstill in the shipping lane has wrecked havoc on global energy markets.

**Drone attacks strike Italian and French military bases in Iraq amid Iran’s regional retaliation

Italy and France have maintained occupying forces in the Kurdish territory of Iraq for decades now

In a surge of violence linked to Iran’s broader retaliation against U.S. and Israeli strikes, drone attacks targeted military bases hosting Italian and French forces in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region on Thursday.

While the strike on the Italian base at Camp Singara in Erbil caused only material damage with no casualties, a subsequent attack in the nearby Makhmour area wounded six French soldiers and killed one officer, escalating concerns over the safety of international coalitions in the region.

The Italian incident occurred overnight on 11-12 March, when a drone struck Camp Singara, a facility near Erbil International Airport that hosts 141 Italian soldiers as part of Operation Prima Parthica. This mission, integrated with the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition and NATO’s Iraq operations, focuses on training, assisting, and supporting Kurdish Peshmerga and Iraqi forces, alongside logistics and protection duties

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto confirmed via X no victims or injuries among military personnel, though the attack caused material damage, including the destruction of a logistics vehicle.

***U.S. to send 2,500 Marines to Middle East as Iran, Israel continue to exchange attacks

Meanwhile, a U.S. official told The Associated Press that roughly 2,500 Marines and at least one amphibious assault ship were headed for the Middle East in a major addition of troops.

The US military has seen more casualties..

Did Trump and Bibi even consider any alternative scenarios, costs, damage to the global economy and worse before launching this attack? The fact they have made the offer to Russia to ease up on sanctioned oil, suggests, they didn’t consider all possibilities.

Thoughts, please?

1- Trump and Bibi are going to cause a global economic catastrophe. If they didn’t think through what their attack on Iran was going to lead to they should have. Thinking of order out of chaos and the make America great again has me entertaining the idea that chaos was what they were after. They likely assumed Iran would back down like last time and Iran didn’t. Now things are getting out of hand. Trump is all over the place. Contradictory and bizarre claims. Including one of an impended Iranian drone attack on California. Alongside reports of drones stolen in November 2025
Do you all recall some time back there were all these reports about drones in the sky- December 2024- Leading to a bit of a hysteria?
And then no more reports- what was that all about, really?

Keep in mind as mentioned in a previous post- The US reverse engineered an Iranian drone

2- There have been a number of alleged attacks in the area of conflict that originated elsewhere in my opinion. Two in particular strike me as false flags. Azerbaijan and Turkey, were allegedly fired upon by Iran. Iran denies targeting these two nations. I believe them. Iran has been quite open about who their targets are and why. It’s been US military assets in other countries and Israel- Sure, Turkey has NATO bases. And yet, still I do not believe Iran has targeted Turkey. Those two nation have shared common interests and concerns. They have cooperated on many things. Turkey has not allowed the use of their airspace for the US to attack Iran. Same as when the US attacked Iraq. Many Azeris live in Iran- there’s just no reason I can think of for Iran to attack Azerbaijan. Nothing.

Interesting reads..

*Rawstory

The Pentagon has confirmed an Iranian strike on a radar system at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan valued at $300 million, and Iran’s response – called Operation True Promise 4 – has surgically focused on targeting the detection systems that underpin the entire U.S. defensive architecture in West Asia, reported Monthly Review Online.

“The AN-TPY/2 radar is essentially the heart of the THAAD battery, enabling the launch of interceptor missiles and contributing to a networked air defense picture,” munitions specialist N.R. Jenzen-Jones told CNN last week. “It also happens to be an incredibly expensive piece of kit.”

*First week of Usrael attack on Iran has cost the US..

Over 11 billion dollars.

*Iran cannot accept US calls for negotiations while it keeps on committing war crimes

Iran said Thursday it cannot accept US calls for negotiations or ceasefire while “war crimes” are being committed against the country.

“We cannot accept that the enemy sometimes speaks about dialogue and negotiations, while at the same time we face war crimes,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in statements carried by the state news agency IRNA.

He said Iran had faced a similar situation for the second time in less than a year, adding that Tehran had been engaged in a diplomatic process and negotiated seriously and “in good faith.”

Baghaei said the talks appeared close to producing an agreement, citing the latest round of US-Iran nuclear talks that concluded in Geneva under Omani mediation in late February, where both sides had described the atmosphere as serious and constructive.

“But the US and Israel carried out military attacks while negotiations were underway,” he added.

“We were in the middle of negotiations and they committed this crime,” he said.

The spokesman said Iran cannot ignore such experiences or accept calls for dialogue while attacks continue.

*Iran Lists Three Conditions To End War With US And Israel

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the conflict could only end if Iran’s rights are recognised, reparations are paid for damages caused during the war, and international guarantees are provided to prevent future aggression against the country.

In a message posted on social media platform X, Pezeshkian said he had reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region while speaking with leaders of Russia and Pakistan. However, he maintained that the war—triggered by what he described as actions by the “Zionist regime” and the United States—could only end if the three conditions were met.

“The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime and the US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression,” Pezeshkian said.

Trump had said the US navy was going to escort ships through the Straits of Hormuz

No.

*US Navy not ready: Team Trump’s U-turn on oil tanker escort through Hormuz

In a U-turn from his earlier claim, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US Navy is not yet ready to escort commercial oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most sensitive maritime choke points for global energy supplies.

Israel looks to as if it’s being hit hard- Though there seems to be a media blackout on that topic. Clearly they are a-ok with the losses, as it is their war of choice

*Iran is reporting civilian casualties over 1300. I expect this to climb because the US is carpet bombing Tehran/ Iran

*The United States and Israel are bombing Iran’s critical energy and civilian infrastructure, Marks New Escalation In War

More interesting reads

*US-Sanctioned Vessels Shipped $11 Billion of Russian Oil Last Year

*Russia and India see potential in Shanghai cooperation/BRICS to ease tensions

Russia, India see potential Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS roles in easing US-Israel-Iran tensions

*Russia shouldn’t get too excited about Trump’s proposal to reduce sanction

The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has, unsurprisingly, destabilized global energy markets. Oil prices shot up by around 30% to $119 per barrel earlier this week, marking a four-year high that is starkly felt by Washington’s alliance network in Europe and parts of Asia.

The spike in oil prices stems from supply shortages and logistics constraints that, even if the U.S. takes steps to guarantee partial traffic through the blockaded Hormuz Strait, will likely persist throughout the duration of the war.

The White House, in an attempt to ameliorate global energy pressures stemming from the war, has temporarily lifted some sanctions on Russian oil. These steps include a recent decision to approve a 30-day waiver on Indian purchases of Russian oil; additional measures in this vein may be expected following a phone call between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday.

* The US can’t be trusted to negotiate in good faith- CLEARLY via https://archive.ph/NRc52

Fyodor Lukyanov, a prominent Russian foreign policy analyst who advises the Kremlin and Russian diplomats, told a Russian radio station that the U.S.-Israeli campaign in Iran “marks a transition to a different type of international relations” where “at any moment, you can move from being a person sitting across the table to becoming a victim.”
Lukyanov added, “How can negotiations even be conducted in such a situation, if you know that at any moment the other side may shift to a direct personal attack against you?
Russia, like Iran, has sent officials to meet Witkoff and Kushner in Geneva in recent weeks. And Russia, like Iran, knows that it is viewed as a threat by the United States and NATO allies.

You can read to your hearts content! Thanks for stopping by!