One year reprieve, unless Trump changes his mind, of course

The Guardian

The United States has granted Hungary a one-year exemption from US sanctions for using Russian oil and gas, a White House official said on Friday, after Viktor Orbán pressed his case for a reprieve during a friendly meeting with Donald Trump in Washington.

From the Telegraph- I’ll bold the arrogant out of touch, downright dangerous talk, that could only come from a position of privilege and entitlement Via Archive.ph

Almost three years after Putin’s invasion, it almost beggars belief that cheap energy from Russia was still being piped across war-ravaged Ukraine into Europe. Stopping it has triggered another global price spiral, and may yet have dire political consequences – but EU leaders cannot afford to maintain this habit

Can we the people afford this global insanity? How many people will freeze in the dark?

Together, these measures mean that for many millions of users the price of gas will be going up – again.

Ukraine’s decision not to renew transit arrangements that have been in place since 1991, effectively brings to an end an era of relatively cheap Russian gas for Europe – and not before time

That mixed messaging is now over. Some Russian gas may still reach Hungary – as well as Turkey and Serbia, both outside the EU – via the TurkStream pipeline, and some EU countries are buying some Russian gas in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). But the amount is sharply reduced. And that is the right direction for the EU to be taking.

How is this the right direction for the EU to be taking? Clearly this is going to be extremely harmful to the population. To industry.

It is right for the EU to be buying its energy elsewhere, even if the speed of the transition up-ended the German economy – with the coming early election as a by-product. And it is right, even if the erstwhile EU recipients of the Russian gas that flowed through Ukraine now face higher costs, either through new reverse switching operations from the EU or from more expensive LNG bought mainly from the United States or the Gulf.

But the words of a certain former UK prime minister (Boris Johnson), in light of the global price rises prompted by the Russian invasion, remain true: “If we’re paying in our energy bills for the evils of Vladimir Putin, the people of Ukraine are paying in their blood.”

Boris Johnson is an entitled git. An arse. A horses arse. I remember him well through the Covid pandemic period. He’s wealthy and can afford huge energy bills- The vast majority of people cannot!

Doing the right thing by Ukraine does not mean that more efforts should not be made by governments and energy companies to rein in price rises as much as possible, and to protect those consumers most at risk. Different EU countries have introduced different measures, with the UK being among the least generous, not to say politically unwise in the way it summarily stopped the winter fuel payment for most pensioners. The EU should also do what it can to help Moldova, which is not in the EU and has no alternative supply.

Regrettably, it is clear that another price spiral looms. The ending of the gas transit across Ukraine triggered an immediate rise in global market prices, which will have a knock-on effect on consumer prices everywhere – and doubtless, in time, on the energy cap in the UK.

Continuing price rises, what is more, could encourage European consumers to blame not Russia, but their governments’ continuing support for Ukraine. It is an argument that finds favour in Hungary and Slovakia and is likely to be heard from the opposition on the far left and far right during Germany’s election campaign.

Consumers shouldn’t blame Russia. They should blame their insane, out of touch with reality leadership for continuing to support Ukraine. A nation that is in the process of decimating it’s own population because it has insane leadership as well.

If you’re curious who I’ve quoted above- check the comment section.

Last paragraph from the Telegraph

It is a happy coincidence that business, security and ethical considerations all converge to make Europe moving to end its reliance on Russian gas quite simply the right thing to do.

A happy coincidence? Right for who?

Regarding the ICC arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant?

I have my doubts they will be arrested. However, from a public relations/perception management point of view. This is very bad for Israel’s reputation in the world. And the over reaction of some parties suggests to me, this is a blow out in the court of public opinion to Israel, US and UK, in particular.

From the Economist via Archive.ph

Both the prime minister and the court that issued the warrant will suffer

FOR MONTHS the decision seemed both inevitable and improbable. On November 21st it finally came. The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and Yoav Gallant, until recently the defence minister (pictured right).

They are accused of overseeing war crimes during Israel’s year-long war in Gaza against Hamas, a Palestinian militant group. The court also indicted the top commander of Hamas, which carried out a massacre of Israelis that triggered Israel’s assault on Gaza. But it is the charges against the two Israeli politicians that are the real earthquake: a diplomatic disaster for Mr Netanyahu, and perhaps also for the court itself.

This decision is vastly worse for Mr Netanyahu, but the ICC will come under attack, particularly by the US.

Karim Khan, the ICC’s prosecutor, requested the warrants in May. The case he brought is separate from allegations of Israeli acts of genocide against Palestinians pending before the International Court of Justice, which hears disputes between states (the ICC prosecutes individuals). The type of charges brought against Messrs Netanyahu and Gallant are easier to prove than a charge of genocide against Israel would be: they are accused of using starvation as a weapon of war in Gaza, and of directing attacks against civilians in the territory.

A three-judge panel found “reasonable grounds to believe” that such crimes had occurred. Recent events no doubt bolstered Mr Khan’s case: the United Nations continues to warn of imminent famine in northern Gaza, which has been largely cut off from humanitarian aid for the past 40 days. The panel rejected a procedural challenge from Israel, which argued that the court has no jurisdiction in Gaza. Palestine, of which Gaza forms a part, is a signatory to the Rome Statute, the legal framework for the ICC. The judges ruled that gave them authority to investigate crimes committed there.

The ICC is meant to be a court of last resort that steps in when a country’s own courts fail to prosecute abuses. Israel’s attorney-general told Mr Netanyahu this year that forming a state commission of inquiry might stall the ICC’s probe. But he has yet to appoint one, and the judges noted Israel’s failure to do so in their decision.

The ruling drew near-universal condemnation from Israeli politicians. Bezalel Smotrich, the far-right finance minister, called it a “mark of Cain” on the ICC, while Yair Golan, the head of a left-wing party, called it a “shameful decision”. Many Israelis argued that it was the result of antisemitism: Mr Netanyahu himself called it a “modern Dreyfus trial”, referring to the wrongful prosecution of a Jewish officer in the French army in 1894.

But the charge of antisemitism cheapens the term. Nothing about the court’s history suggests a fixation with Jews. Since it was founded in 2002 the ICC has mostly prosecuted African warlords and despots, the likes of Omar al-Bashir, a Sudanese dictator, and Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son of Libya’s longtime tyrant. Over the past two years it has issued warrants for a number of Russian officials, including Vladimir Putin, for the invasion of Ukraine. This is the first time it has indicted Israelis.

Along with Messrs Netanyahu and Gallant, the ICC issued a warrant for Muhammad Deif, the longtime Hamas military chief. He is accused of directing the murder, torture and rape of civilians on October 7th 2023, among other offences. Mr Deif probably cannot stand trial: Israel believes he was killed in an air strike in July (the court issued a warrant because it could not confirm his fate). Mr Khan had also requested warrants for Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the massacre, and Ismail Haniyeh, the group’s leader at the time. Those requests were withdrawn because both men were killed by Israel this year.

There is no risk that Israel will extradite Messrs Netanyahu or Gallant to The Hague, since the country is not a member of the ICC. But 124 other countries are, including many of Israel’s closest friends. The most immediate consequence of the judgment is that both men will be unable to travel to those countries for fear of arrest. Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign-policy chief, said the court’s decision was binding on all EU members. “Netanyahu has ended his journey as a legitimate leader in the international arena,” wrote Eran Etzion, a former deputy national security adviser under Mr Netanyahu.

The main exception, of course, is America, which is not a member of the court. The decision has thrown a bombshell into America’s presidential transition. It will embarrass Joe Biden’s outgoing administration, divide Democrats and outrage Republicans as they prepare to take control of the White House and both houses of Congress in January.
Leading Republicans have warned that America will impose sanctions on the ICC—with support from Democrats if possible or without it if necessary. Mike Waltz, whom Donald Trump has chosen to be his national security adviser, promised a “strong response” to the court’s “antisemitic bias”. John Thune, the Senate’s incoming majority leader, denounced the ICC’s move as “outrageous, unlawful and dangerous”. He said that its actions, left unchecked, “could pose a threat to the United States in the future”.

He urged Chuck Schumer, the Democratic majority leader in the Senate, to take up a bill passed by the Republican-controlled House in June that would apply sweeping economic sanctions and visa restrictions to judges and others linked to the ICC, including their family members. If not, he warned, Republicans would do so in January as a “top priority”.

The writing was on the wall- the US knew this. Hence a bill passed in June to apply sweeping sanctions etc.,

Democrats, for their part, are increasingly split over the war in the Middle East. On November 20th the Senate firmly rejected three motions calling on Mr Biden to halt various weapons shipments to Israel, but 17 of the 47 Democrats, and two independents who support them, voted for at least one of the critical motions. The Biden administration is in a quandary. It has opposed legal action against Israel, but it has supported the court in issuing an arrest warrant for Mr Putin and has resisted the House sanctions bill as going too far.
Ironically, it may be the court that suffers the most immediate consequences in the form of sanctions imposed by America. Mr Netanyahu is not about to end up in the dock, nor is Israel about to end its war in Gaza. But the judgment will have long-term consequences: both Mr Netanyahu and the country he leads will be more isolated and more dependent on the United States. ■

The US loved the ICC when it was issuing arrest warrants for African warlords and Vladimir Putin- who were, not coincidentally, being targeted by the US. Now it is the US alone that stands unquestioningly beside Israel as it commits very obvious and open war crimes. Israeli leadership doesn’t hide what they are doing. Israeli soldiers do not hide what they are doing. The rest of the planet is aware of what is being done by the Israelis against the Palestinians.

The world is changing. The US refuses to accept the change. Pax Americana is weaker and more dangerous-

Re: Orban and Netanyahu- This is politics. He hasn’t supported the arrest warrant for Putin, so he’s not going to support this one.

Kremlin.ru

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Mr Prime Minister, colleagues,

Welcome to Moscow, to Russia.

I know that this time you have come not only as our long-standing partner, but also as the President of the Council of the European Union. I hope we will have the opportunity to exchange views on building bilateral relations in this difficult situation and, of course, to discuss the possible scenarios for the largest European crisis – I am referring to Ukraine.

I know that quite recently, on July 2, I think, you visited Kiev, and now you have come here to discuss in detail the situation that has arisen in Ukraine. I am at your disposal.

Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban (retranslated): Mr President,

Thank you for meeting with me today. This is far from our first meeting over the past decade; in fact, it is the 11th one. But this meeting is more critical than the previous ones.

As you have mentioned, Hungary took over the rotating presidency of the EU Council on July 1. Our last meeting was before the war; we met in February 2022. This is exactly why these two meetings are different.

The EU get’s all freaky (bizarre, weird and strange)

Washington Times

Charles Michel, president of the European Council, said the rotating presidency was not a mandate to engage with Russia on behalf of the EU. The EU has joined the Biden administration in sharply condemning the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and has tried to isolate Mr. Putin on the world stage.

I’d think the position of presidency would provide a mandate to engage with Russia in order to resolve the Ukraine issue. Orban has shown real leadership. Perhaps this is what the peons (menial employees of the US) in the EU didn’t like?

Mr. Orban, long seen as friendly to the Russian president, insisted that he was in Moscow in his capacity as Hungary’s prime minister. But he also added that peace will not be made from “a comfortable armchair in Brussels.”

“We cannot sit back and wait for the war to miraculously end,” he said on social media. “We will serve as an important tool in making the first steps toward peace. This is what our peace mission is about.”

There are some over the top dramatic headlines about- Not worth my time- Peace will not be made from a comfortable armchair in Brussels!!

EU leadership is pretty pathetic

Stoltenberg told The Associated Press that he urged Turkey to finalize the process as he met with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday on the sidelines of the COP28 climate summit in Dubai.

“I met with President Erdogan this morning and I reiterated my message that the time has come to finalize the accession process for Sweden,” he said.

Turkey and Hungary are the only NATO countries that have not yet formally approved Sweden’s accession bid.

Ratification of Sweden’s Membership will not be completed in time for this most recent meeting (taking place over the next two days)

Turkey has informed NATO that ratification of Sweden’s membership bid will not be completed in time to allow the country’s accession ceremony at a meeting of alliance foreign ministers next week, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Wednesday.

Last week, the Turkish parliament’s Foreign Affairs committee delayed a vote on Sweden’s NATO membership bid in order to hold further talks on the subject.

The committee will likely resume its debate on the matter on Tuesday or Wednesday, one of the sources said. NATO foreign ministers will meet in Brussels on those days, Nov. 28-29, a gathering that some in the Western defense bloc had hoped would mark Sweden’s accession.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry was not immediately available for comment.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan raised objections at the time to both requests over what he said was the Nordic nations’ protection of those who Turkey deems terrorists as well as their defense trade embargoes. Turkey endorsed Finland’s bid in April, but has kept Sweden waiting.

Turkey has demanded that Sweden take more steps to rein in local members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is considered a terrorist group by Turkey and much of the international community.

While NATO member Hungary also has not ratified Sweden’s membership, Turkey is seen as the main roadblock to Sweden’s accession.

A populist former prime minister and his leftist party have won early parliamentary elections in Slovakia, staging a political comeback after campaigning on a pro-Russian and anti-American message, according to complete results announced Sunday.

Saturday’s election was a test for the small eastern European country’s support for neighboring Ukraine in its war with Russia, and the win by Fico could strain a fragile unity in the European Union and NATO.

Fico, 59, has vowed to withdraw Slovakia’s military support for Ukraine in Russia’s war if his attempt to return to power succeeds. “People in Slovakia have bigger problems than Ukraine,” he said.

In other countries, including Germany, France, and Spain, populist parties skeptical of intervention in Ukraine also command significant support. Many of these countries have national or regional elections coming up that could tip the balance of popular opinion away from Kyiv and toward Moscow.

So Liberal- pro- West is not the same as leftist, populist-

Fico opposes EU sanctions on Russia, questions whether Ukraine can force out the invading Russian troops and wants to block Ukraine from joining NATO. He proposes that instead of sending arms to Kyiv, the EU and the U.S. should use their influence to force Russia and Ukraine to strike a compromise peace deal.

Fico’s critics worry that his return to power could lead Slovakia to abandon its course in other ways, following the path of Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and to a lesser extent of Poland under the Law and Justice party.

“It can’t be ruled out that he will be looking for a partner who uses similar rhetoric, and the partner will be Viktor Orbán,” said Radoslav Stefancik, an analyst from the University of Economics in Bratislava.

Orbán welcomed Fico’s victory.

“Always good to work together with a patriot,” he posted on X, the former Twitter.

TO BE DELAYED TO FALL

The vote on Sweden’s accession to NATO was delayed after members of the ruling party, which has a two-thirds majority in parliament, failed to show up for the meeting. Peter Szijjarto, Hungary’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, said on July 11 that ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership was currently “only a technical matter”. On June 28, Hungary announced that Sweden’s NATO membership ratification session had been postponed until the fall.

‘THE FINAL DECISION IS UP TO PARLIAMENT’

On June 14, Szijjarto stated that the Hungarian government supports Sweden’s membership in NATO, but the final decision belongs to the parliament, taking into account the “insults” the Stockholm government has made against his country.

Szijjarto noted that they were constantly subjected to criticism, accusations and allegations by Swedish politicians, and recalled that Sweden had accused Hungary of “not having democracy and becoming a dictatorship”.

Szijjarto stated that such criticism was a valid reason for not approving Sweden’s NATO membership.

Washington Post

But behind closed doors, Ukraine’s leader has proposed going in a more audacious direction — occupying Russian villages to gain leverage over Moscow, bombing a pipeline that transfers Russian oil to Hungary, a NATO member, and privately pining for long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia’s borders, according to classified U.S. intelligence documents detailing his internal communications with top aides and military leaders.

In a meeting in mid-February with Deputy Prime Minister Yuliya Svrydenko, Zelensky suggested Ukraine “blow up” the Soviet-built Druzhba pipeline that provides oil to Hungary. “Zelenskyy highlighted that … Ukraine should just blow up the pipeline and destroy likely Hungarian [Prime Minister] Viktor Orban’s industry, which is based heavily on Russian oil,” the document says

Hyperbole? Maybe? Maybe not? The idea didn’t sit well with Hungary, for obvious reasons.

Hungary Today

Many in the Hungarian press and on social media expressed their dismay. The Hungarian government has not yet issued an official reaction to the leaked information. State Secretary for International Communications Zoltán Kovács expressed his concern on Twitter.

How is it possible that Ukraine is plotting against a NATO country?? https://t.co/pABhdPtG7I

— Zoltan Kovacs (@zoltanspox) May 14, 2023

Five EU countries have said massive imports of cheaper Ukrainian grain are putting local farmers under pressure. They’re pushing Brussels to help.

But farmers in Poland then began protesting that they were being flooded by Ukrainian grain imports and felt they were being undercut, even if the grain was supposed to be destined for sale outside the EU.

In recent days and after months of discontent, Ukraine’s western neighbors Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia have all announced import restrictions on Ukrainian grain. The European Commission has criticized the moves, but is now working on a fresh round of funding to relieve farmers and come up with a common approach. In the past few days, Warsaw and Bucharest have indicated they would lift some of the restrictive measures.

Why hasn’t Ukraine taken advantage of the Black Sea Grain Initiative? Maybe the future is unclear but this information is talking past and present. What’s going on?

In the meantime, the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative   — up and running since August — currently looks unclear. Russia has been indicating it might stop abiding by the export facilitation deal, brokered by the UN and Turkey and designed to keep food supplies flowing out of the region and feeding the world. On Sunday, agriculture ministers from the seven wealthy industrial G7 countries called for its extension

Theoretically, the member states striking out on their own could be sanctioned if they were found to have broken EU rules, but the EU executive branch seems more interested in finding a solution.

The European Commission is looking at pulling together another package of aid worth around €100 million ($110 million), a senior EU official said on condition of anonymity at a briefing. This comes after a €56 million package earlier this year, plus national relief plans financed in part by the relaxation of EU state aid rules.

The current focus is finding a common EU measure that ensures Ukrainian grain makes its way out of the country and then onward to the non-EU markets it is intended for, according to the senior EU source.

I’m not sure why Ukrainian grain hasn’t been making it’s way to non-EU markets? Anyone?