World Politics

Recent clashes between pro-government militias in Tripoli once again threatened to unravel Libya’s tenuous frozen conflict. Yet beyond the headline-grabbing instability, a quieter power struggle is unfolding, one in which Turkey and Russia are emerging as the most consequential actors, with both Ankara and Moscow utilizing the country’s stalemate to entrench their own influence.

Still, the political and military fault lines that divide Libya are increasingly shaped by Turkey and Russia, who have settled into what analysts characterize as a “managed rivalry” or “adversarial collaboration,” as previously seen in other theaters where their interests simultaneously collide and overlap, such as Syria and the South Caucasus

Turkey’s Outreach

Turkey’s military intervention in 2020 decisively shifted the balance in Libya’s civil war, repelling an offensive on Tripoli launched by Haftar in April 2019 and setting the stage for the United Nations-brokered ceasefire that ended the fighting between the Tripoli and Tobruk governments later that year. Since then, Turkey has remained the GNU’s key patron, supplying military equipment such as Turkish-made armored vehicles, drones, air defense systems and artillery.

The Turkish parliament has continued to renew the military mandate for its forces in Libya, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan citing risks to Turkish interests if the GNU were to come under renewed assault. That deep level of support was almost certainly the decisive factor allowing Dbeibah and the GNU to retain the upper hand amid the recent unrest in Tripoli. 

While Turkey’s military intervention had guaranteed it a seat at Libya’s political table, Ankara has also secured oil and gas exploration deals with successive Tripoli-based administrations, beginning with a Memorandum of Understanding signed with the GNA in 2019 and later ratified by Dbeibah’s government in October 2022.

Although the Tripoli Court of Appeal ruled against the deal in February 2024, the GNU ultimately overrode the court’s decision. That underscores how Ankara’s outreach to Tripoli’s powerbrokers has advanced its maritime and energy interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, even as Turkey’s offshore territorial claims sparked tensions with Greece and Egypt, which said they infringed upon their own sovereignty.

Russia’s Ambitions

Russia’s engagement in Libya has also been consequential, but was previously subtler.

Moscow has become more open in its ties to Haftar, particularly following the fall of former dictator Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in Syria. In May, both Khalifa and Saddam Haftar traveled to Moscow for Russia’s World War II Victory Day celebrations, where they met senior officials and discussed expanding military cooperation, for which the elder Haftar expressed his gratitude.

The deepening relationship comes at a time when Moscow is looking to reassert its Mediterranean presence following its loss of influence in Syria, which had guaranteed it an Eastern Mediterranean naval base in Tartus. In February, satellite imagery showed Russia’s development of the Maaten Al Sarra airbase in southern Libya, where it had shipped S-300 and S-400 air defense systems. Around 1,000 Russian military personnel have also relocated to Libya from Syria.

I’ve read that Russia has been looking for option in Libya, but, there are also news reports such as the one below;

Libyan PM resists Russia’s move to reinforce military bases in country

Russia’s move to reinforce its military base in eastern Libya after the toppling of the Assad regime in Syria is facing resistance from the country’s UN-backed government.

The prime minister of the Tripoli-based government, Abdul Hamid Dabaiba, said he rejected any attempt to turn Libya into a centre for major-power conflicts, stressing that the country would not be a platform for settling international scores.

“We have concerns about moving international conflicts to Libya, and that it will become a battlefield between countries,” Dabaiba said.

Libya has been a battlefield between countries for some time now, sadly. Thanks to the US led NATO destruction/destabilization and brutal murder of Gaddafi. And I mean BRUTAL!!

Back to World Politics

Russia’s growing influence with the LNA would likely make approval for building a naval base easier. Haftar’s forces depend on Russia for their logistical networks and reportedly even require Russian approval to use certain military installations, indicating how much leverage Moscow has established over him.

Yet rather than being an unconditional ally, Russia arguably views Haftar as a means to an end, a tool to maintain influence in Libya and extend its reach into Africa. Still, the fact Haftar and his son have engaged with Ankara, too, shows that the family is willing to leverage the competing powers to gain recognition. Thus, Russia and Haftar’s ties can be deemed a “marriage of convenience.”

Indeed, like Turkey, Russia has also looked to the rival camp to hedge its bets. Moscow’s outreach to Tripoli has gained momentum over the past two years, with a delegation traveling to Tripoli to meet with GNU officials—including Dbeibah—as recently as April. Beyond potentially allowing Moscow to use western Libya as a launchpad for power projection deeper into Africa, this balancing act advances Russia’s energy interests, as Russian firms are now in talks with the Tripoli-based Presidential Council, which is aligned with the GNU, for exploration deals.

Russia’s entrenched role serves as a geopolitical bargaining chip, compelling European powers to engage with Moscow and advancing President Vladimir Putin’s stated vision of a multipolar world order. There is also a potential risk of Russia of weaponizing Libya’s energy sector; Haftar has previously blockaded oil facilities to pressure Tripoli, a tactic Moscow could exploit to disrupt or manipulate European energy supplies.

Even short of active sabotage, a future Russian naval base in Libya would almost certainly raise alarm in European capitals. Yet all of this would likely be consolidated within a frozen conflict, one increasingly sustained by competing Russian and Turkish involvement.

Marriage of Convenience aka RealPolitik

Meanwhile, Washington has largely disengaged from Libya’s conflict, aside from recent inflammatory suggestions that it would relocate migrants and even displaced Palestinians from Gaza to Libya. Both proposals were swiftly condemned, in part due to the country’s lack of security and high risk of human trafficking.

With Western involvement waning, any U.N.-backed efforts to unify the rival administrations under a single government, push for domestic reform or hold elections will almost certainly require Turkish buy-in. Persuading Moscow to scale back support for Haftar and relinquish its strategic foothold in the Mediterranean and Africa, will prove far more difficult.

I’m not so sure western involvement has waned- That all said, Libya is definitely a nation to watch.

A new legislative initiative in the U.S. Congress seeks to institutionalize America’s interest in promoting the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), with a particular emphasis on the Eastern Mediterranean region.

Titled “Law for the Eastern Mediterranean as a Strategic Gateway,” the bill, introduced by Illinois Congressman Brad Schneider, directs U.S. attention toward critical infrastructures in IMEC member countries, such as Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt, to strengthen connectivity.

In this context, the legislation:

• Specifically highlights the importance of certain energy projects, including the Great Sea Interconnector, the Greece-Egypt GREGY electricity link, the Greece-Bulgaria pipeline, and new liquefied natural gas terminals, which will facilitate IMEC’s implementation.
• Calls for the U.S. Secretary of State to explore the possibility of expanding bilateral research and development programs, currently applied to Israel, to other regional countries.
• Urges the U.S. Secretary of State to support multilateral regional cooperation frameworks, emphasizing the “3+1” scheme and the CYCLOPS center in Cyprus, presented as an example of regional collaboration.
• Encourages strengthening Israel’s diplomatic and economic ties with neighboring countries to promote regional integration.

Finally, the new legislation mandates annual reports to Congress on progress in multilateral initiatives and the completion of defense and energy projects.

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.ca/2025/05/07/israel-announces-plans-to-seize-gaza-land-resource-grab-ethnic-cleansing/

This resource control/grab has been long in the works- As I’d written about in 2017 at my old site. Moved here in April 2025. The US is formalizing their plans through Congressional mandates


https://pennyforyourthoughts2.ca/2025/04/03/1st-flashback-2017-greece-israel-stars-aligned-italy-cyprus-to-discuss-east-mediterranean-pipeline/

There are massive gas fields in the Mediterranean-

While Presidents and parties may change, long term goals remain

4th – Turkey knows the US stands behind Israel. Turkey is in NATO but is not supported by the US. So it’s likely better to make this type of arrangement in advance from a realpolitik perspective, even if just from a public relations point of view- Though I suspect this is more than just PR.

Link

Speaking to Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office on April 7, Trump told the Israeli leader, “Any problem that you have with Turkey, I think I can solve. I mean, as long as you’re reasonable, you have to be reasonable. We have to be reasonable.” Even if Trump can hold Erdogan at bay, however, the military capabilities Erdogan may acquire in these four years could forever change the region.

Accordingly, it is time for Congress to set parameters for peace and security and reformulate the QME to account for the security calculus of Israel and Greece. Turkey should neither have missiles nor aircraft capable of outperforming those belonging to the Israel Defense Forces or Hellenic Armed Forces. This means no F-35 Joint Strike Fighter for Turkey. If France proceeds with its immoral and cynical sale of Meteor missiles with which to equip the Rafale jets it sold Ankara, then the U.S. should ensure both Athens and Jerusalem have access to even more precise, lethal, and long-range missiles capable of ensuring continued Israeli and Greek dominance over Turkey and its new proxy Syria.

Trump may see himself in Erdogan and believe he can deal with the Turkish despot, but neither Republicans nor Democrats should respond with deference. Rather, it is past time for Congress to establish the legal guardrails to prevent Trump from doing the equivalent of arming a serial killer. 

There are massive gas fields in the Mediterranean- A very large one of the coast of Gaza- Of course Israel claims it as their own. There are also gas fields off the coast of Lebanon- Israel also claims that as their own.

We can understand that the Greater Israel expansion is a land and resource grab. Fully backed by the US.

Part of this plan is to cut Turkey out of the picture as well as Russia. Hence the Gene Sharp type protests in Turkey. Calculated in an attempt to delegitimize Turkey leadership. Also to interfere in Black Sea shipping by forcing Turkey’s hand despite the Montreaux Accord. If Israel, Cyprus and Greece can succeed with their planned pipeline- they will be the providers of gas to Europe, thereby rendering Russia unnecessary as a resource provider. It’s a big plan, that’s been in the works for a while now– Birth pangs. We are witnessing this in real time, as the plan, long in the process of being carried out, proceeds or advances.

original url

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2017/01/greece-israel-stars-aligned-italy.html

 Government representatives from Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Israel plan to meet in February to discuss a natural gas pipeline from the east Mediterranean fields to Greece and Italy, according to a report in Globes, a business daily.

Israel energy minister Yuval Steinitz has already met Enel CEO Francesco Starace (pictured below) to discuss possible gas deals with the Italian power generator as production in northern Europe is declining. Enel also buys gas from Algeria.

An EU-sponsored survey last year found the 2,000-km pipeline would cost $5.7bn. The project will connect the Israeli Leviathan gas field, the offshore Cypriot Aphrodite gas field and possibly other gas fields to buyers in southern Europe.

A map on the European Commision's website shows a line starting east of Cyprus and running to Crete and from there up the west coast of mainland Greece to the Adriatic and then to Italy.

Map accessible via the wayback

https://wayback.archive-it.org/12090/20171219234014/https://ec.europa.eu/inea/en/connecting-europe-facility/cef-energy/projects-by-country/multi-country/7.3.1-0025-elcy-s-m-15

 The pipeline would have a 12bn m³/yr capacity and the idea is for the project to be built by private-sector companies without public funding (lie, the public funds the wars that make the areas usable..), although with the moral support of the European Union.

There is always public funding for big oil. What the heck does everyone think the carbon tax is really about?

Gas experts, however, are not convinced that the project can be achieved. An Israeli expert who was asked about the project's feasibility said the chances were zero as the project cost calculations were far too low and the project is just a PR stunt.

I’ve read this elsewhere also- unsure of the actual reserves- high, high costs. But there is all that public funding (debt enslavement) to help keep costs down- for big oil

Russian oil major Rosneft has also talked about piping gas from Egypt to Europe, an idea unlikely to meet with the same degree of support from the European Commission given the strong position Russia already holds in gas supplies. Egypt's own gas demand is also growing.

EU

 A key part of ensuring secure and affordable (?) supplies of energy to Europeans involves diversifying supply routes. This includes identifying and building new routes that decrease the dependence of EU countries on a single supplier of natural gas and other energy resources.

Israel sees ‘stars aligned’ for new gas pipeline to Europe- The Guardian via The Cypriot Puzzle

From 2014:

Israel and Cyprus have launched a new push for EU funds to build a pipeline that could bring about 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) of their natural gas to Europe annually, and ease the continent’s energy security anxieties. 

But Palestinians are warning that without a broader resolution of regional disputes, the pipeline risks becoming a source of conflict.

The Cyprus-centred project could be the world’s longest pipeline if built, stretching up to 1,530km, and passing through depths of up to 3,000m.

The Israeli energy minister, Silvan Shalom, raised the issue at a ministerial conference in Rome last week and held talks on the margins with the EU’s vice president for energy union, Maros Sefkovic, Israeli sources say. 

Israel, Greece and Cyprus expect a formal meeting with Sefkovic to discuss ways of actualising the project, on the fringes of an EU energy ministers’ summit on 9 December.

“The three countries involved intend to raise this issue [on the 9th] as it involves funding from the commission,” an EU diplomat said. Israel, as a non-EU member, will depend on its partner countries’ powers of persuasion. 

With energy diversification and security both rising up Europe’s political agenda, “it looks like the stars have aligned in one position now and that might be good for our timing,” Guy Feldman, an advisor to Shalom told the Guardian. 

But the Palestinian Authority cautioned the EU against signing any contract until territorial gas disputes with neighbouring countries such as Lebanon were resolved.
“The objective of energy security starts with a clear cut boundary of all the gas fields,” said the PA’s energy minister, Omar Kettaneh. “Otherwise instead of being a source of security the pipeline will be a source of conflict.” 

In 2010, the US Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that the Levant Basin, could hold more than 3,455bcm of gas, which is comparable to Iraq’s reserves.

But until now, political instability has hindered its exploitation, with Israeli and Cypriot claims to overlapping gas fields contested by Lebanon and Turkey, respectively.
In 2012, Israel, Cyprus and Greece signed a deal to promote exports of their gas to the EU through an eastern Mediterranean corridor. 

The planned offshore pipeline, which diplomats say could transport between 8-15bcm of natural gas annually, has already been selected for “project of common interest” status by the EU. This potentially gives it access to a €5.85bn fund, and preferential treatment from multilateral banks.

Clearly you can see the why of the conflict Israel has opted to engage in with Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.

When you read the 2nd repost- You’ll notice that Russia was left out of these talks although Russia has strong connections to Cyprus.

 What has been billed as the last chance for Greek and Turkish Cypriots to reunite the island nation appears to be tantalizingly within reach -- but it might not get there without a nod from Russia. 

  Now, Greece, Turkey and the U.K., which has bases in Cyprus, are the guarantor states of a military status quo. Along with the leaders of the two Cypriot states, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker took part in the talks in Geneva this week. After breaking down on Thursday, the talks are scheduled to pick up next week at a lower level.


 Russia offered to attend but it wasn't invited; there's no formal reason for that. Yet there are plenty of informal ones for Moscow's interest in the Cyprus process. Though Russia has officially voiced support for a settlement, the final deal -- depending on which way it sways -- could hurt its many interests in the region.

About 40,000 Russians live on the island, which has a population of 800,000. They own real estate and businesses in both the Greek-run and Turkish-run areas. Thanks to its history as an offshore haven for post-Soviet money, tiny Cyprus is officially the biggest source of foreign direct investment in Russia. According to the Russian central bank, in the second quarter of 2016 (the latest for which data are available), it accounted for $2.8 billion in investment, more than twice as much as the next country. 

They are also a major source of tourist revenue for Cyprus. According to the Cyprus government, 525,000 Russians visited the island in 2015; only Britain provides more tourists. 

In short, Cyprus is an important place for Russia and Russians. 

But reunification would only benefit Moscow under certain conditions.

Russia seeks to weaken and divide the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but a settlement could strengthen it by resolving a longstanding conflict between Greece and Turkey -- members both . It could also mean an end to Russia's military foothold in the region, gained in 2015 when Cyprus opened its ports to Russian warships taking part in anti-piracy and anti-terrorist operations. The U.K. has criticized the move. Russia hasn't used the official agreement to help its military action in Syria, but it appears to have used Cyprus ports to smuggle jet fuel to Syria despite an EU

 President Vladimir Putin is also seeking to forge an energy partnership with Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to sell gas to southern Europe, but reunification threatens to clear the way for a competing one. Big natural gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean and a warming of relations between Israel and Turkey made the construction of a pipeline carrying Israeli gas to Turkey a possibility (misleading) -- though the Greek government of Cyprus has linked the pipeline to reunification.

Bear in mind I’ve written numerous reports concerning the remaking of the region- Birth Pangs. This is a part of that process.

BrusselsSignals

The Eastern Mediterranean is at a crossroads, and the EastMed Pipeline – linking Greece, Cyprus, and Israel in a defiant energy pact – stands as a promise and a test. This isn’t just a pipeline. It is a battle cry for sovereignty, a chance to redraw the energy and geopolitical map, and a slap to the face of timidity.

The United States, under a newly emboldened administration, is dangling the prospect of reviving this 1.900-kilometre lifeline, a project that could pump 10 billion cubic meters of gas annually into Europe’s veins. Yet it is courage, not just cash, that will decide if it lives or dies. Greece, Cyprus, and Israel must force it through, and Europe must wake up to why it matters.

The Greece-Cyprus-Israel alliance is forged in adversity. (Wow that’s heroic) Greece offers its strategic spine. Cyprus, unbowed by Turkish threats, brings its gas-rich waters. Israel, a warrior-state, endows it with Leviathan’s bounty. Together, they are a middle finger to Ankara’s neo-Ottoman delusions and Moscow’s energy stranglehold.

The EastMed Pipeline is a means to break Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, side-line Turkey’s tantrums and make Greece the EU’s southern energy hub. This must happen, because the alternative is servitude.

In 2020, Athens, Nicosia, and Jerusalem signed the deal, backed by the EU as a Project of Common Interest.

Worse, Greece’s own government – led by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, poster boy of spineless liberalism – abandoned ship. Where was the fight? Where was the roar of a nation that respects its millennia of history? Instead of challenging Erdogan’s gunboats, Mitsotakis mumbled platitudes about green agendas and “dialogue”, letting a €6 billion dream rot. Turkey won and Greece retreated. Shameful.

Now the US offers a second chance and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Europe is shivering through energy crises. Russia and Ukraine alike turn the gas tap into a weapon and LNG tankers from Qatar or America can’t fully plug the gap.

Freedom for who? Control of what country? Denial of access? It’s fuel all absurd rhetoric aside

Yet it must happen, because the cost of failure is existential. Without the EastMed, Europe stays an energy hostage, Turkey’s blackmail intensifies and Greece fades into irrelevance.

This pipeline redraws the map. It bypasses Ankara’s coastline, isolates its aggression, and forges a Greece-Cyprus-Israel axis that could pull Egypt and others into a bloc strong enough to resist Erdogan. Greece becomes a gateway, not a doormat. Cyprus thrives, not just survives. Israel’s gas fuels a continent. This is geopolitical muscle Europe and America cannot afford to pass on.

The clock is ticking. EastMed could be operational by 2030, but only if the will outmuscles the whining. Technical hurdles? Solve them. Costs? Pay them. Turkey? Face it with ships and sanctions, not handshakes.

Europe needs this gas, America needs this win, and Greece needs this historic comeback. The Greece-Cyprus-Israel triad has the vision. Now it demands the guts. Let’s not mince words: if EastMed dies again, it will not be fate, but failure. And history will not forgive the faint-hearted.

It’s like the hero’s journey. It’s mythical. It’s heroic. It’s a quest for greatness. That kind of talk makes me so leery. It’s excessively loaded with emotional appeals.

Spectator UK

However, the standoff has also fueled a deepening divide between the country and the West, as Erdogan regularly accuses the US of supporting the Marxist PKK. Last year, he blasted President Joe Biden’s White House as being ‘behind’ the militant Kurdish group after it executed 13 Turkish hostages in Iraq, summoning Washington’s ambassador over the incident.

Turkey’s accusation is valid.

‘A lot of people in Turkey do feel that Western powers are out to crush their country, peel off its territory and destroy it as a great power,’ Professor Lisel Hintz, an expert on Eurasian politics at Johns Hopkins University, told The Spectator. ‘And the behaviour of the EU in arming Kurdish groups in Syria adds to that sense.’

Western powers are out to crush Turkey. And peel off it’s territory. And destroy it as a regional power. All correct. All obvious.

American officials have defended military and political support for the Kurds on the basis that they were one of the most effective forces fighting both ISIS and the brutal government of Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad. Ankara has repeatedly argued that same support is being used to perpetrate terror attacks on its soil. Sunday’s Istiklal bombing has only intensified that rhetoric, and drawn more of America’s partners into the fierce row. Security chief Soylu claims that, had the alleged bomber not been apprehended, she and her co-conspirators would have been smuggled to safety in neighbouring Greece.

The Kurds never fought ISIS. That’s ridiculous. At my censored site I’d covered reports, yes, reports, that the Kurds and ISIS cooperated.
As for Greece? After the coup attempt some of the plotters fled to Greece. There is a precedent.

Tensions between the two countries have skyrocketed in recent months, with Ankara insisting that US hardware is being used by Athens in its ‘occupation’ of contested islands in the Aegean Sea. Turkish warplanes have repeatedly violated their neighbour’s airspace, while their commanders lodged a protest after an armed Greek anti-air launcher locked on to one of their jets. Despite the fact both are Nato members, analysts say the prospect of a serious incident is high. Turkish politicians and the media frequently claim their nation is being targeted by a Western coalition that wants to see it weakened and broken up.

There are some recent reports here touching on the Turkish/Greek tensions. Inflamed by the US of course.

At the same time, an emboldened Erdogan is increasingly finding himself on the opposite side of other conflicts to the US and its allies. It has stepped up its presence in the Middle East, North Africa and the Caucasus, while refusing to impose sanctions on Russian oil and gas. Over the summer, Ankara threatened to veto the applications of Sweden and Finland to join Nato unless they took ‘concrete steps’ to extradite alleged Kurdish terrorists living there back to Turkey to face trial. Using this leverage he secured a deal, despite fears they would be treated unfairly.

The agreement looks to be a dead end deal. Sweden and Finland are not going to fulfill it.

‘America has been killing people by abandoning them from the moment the plane took off as they escaped from Afghanistan,’ Soylu said at the opening of a school named after a Turkish naval officer ‘martyred’ in Syria on Sunday, hours before the blast. ‘They said they would bring democracy to Iraq, peace to Afghanistan. But the world sees these things for what they are.’

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2019/12/pt-2-meddling-outsiders-and.html

Both pieces accessible here

 One more factor in all this was Assad’s “Four Seas” Strategy… (I’d written about his strategy back in 2011) this too was a plan that would have set Syria up as an energy hub integrated with Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan. This plan could not be allowed to come to fruition by the anglo zionist overlords, because, it would have resulted in a reduced Israeli role/ reduced Israeli power in the region. The US and Israel would never let this stand.

• 2011: Assad’s “Four Seas Strategy” Damascus converges with China

    “Since 2009, Bashar al-Assad has been promoting a “Four Seas Strategy” to turn Damascus into a trade hub among the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Persian Gulf/Arabian Sea and the Caspian Sea.

Aligning Syria with countries that lie on these shores—Turkey, Iran, and Azerbaijan (The Weekly Middle East Reporter, August 1, 2009)—Assad peddled this idea in May 2009 with Turkey, stating that “Once the economic space between Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran become integrated, we would link the Mediterranean, Caspian, Black Sea, and the [Persian] Gulf … we aren’t just important in the Middle East…Once we link these four seas, we become the compulsory intersection of the whole world in investment, transport and more.”      

Now let’s get up to speed on the Nov. 27/19 agreement between Libya and Turkey– 

Notice that the Turkish/Libyan agreement comes years after Greece, Cyprus, Israel and Egypt made their pacts?  Which by their design, intentionally, excluded Turkey (Lebanon and Syria/ Damascus) despite the FACT that Turkey was the most expedient path to transport energy resources to Europe?  (covered in Part 1)  Turkey’s participation,would have enriched Turkish coffers, of course. Making the attempt to circumvent Turkey as a trading partner  an aspect of financial warfare. As well as geostrategic warfare (denial of resources)

Turkey’s Parliament Will Vote in Early January on Sending Troops to Libya 

“Turkey could deploy troops to Libya to support the government in Tripoli as early as next month, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday, putting the north African country’s conflict at the centre of wider regional frictions.
Libya’s internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) has been fending off a months-long offensive by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s forces in eastern Libya.”

For those who are unaware or have forgotten Haftar is and has long been the CIA’s man…

• 2011: CIA Plunges Libya into Chaos
• 2015: Pt.2- Libya & Calls for International Strikes, Furthering the Balkanization Agenda

Excerpts from the two posts (relinked above) :

“Great Britain funded an Al Qaeda cell in Libya, in an attempt to assassinate Gadaffi.(the British government denies this) The main opposition group in Libya now is the National Front for the Salvation of Libya. This opposition group is being funded by Saudi Arabia, the CIA, and French Intelligence. This group unified itself with other opposition groups, to become the National Conference for the Libyan Opposition. It was this organization that called for the “Day of Rage” that plunged Libya into chaos on February 17 of this year (2011).
Khalifa Haftar’s army now controls much of the eastern half of the country.  
General Khalifa Haftar left his home in northern Virginia—where he had spent most of the previous two decades, at least some of that time working with the Central Intelligence Agency and returned to Tripoli to fight his latest war for control of Libya.   

Haftar’s force, which he calls the Libyan National Army, has taken much of the eastern half of the country, in an offensive known as Operation Dignity.
The US has been funding for decades are now taking their chance to gain control over the nation. A group recently arrested in Libya consisted of dozens of foreign nationals that were involved in numerous acts of looting and sabotage. The Libyan government could not rule out links to Israel.
Much as General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has boasted of doing in Egypt, General Haftar proposes to destroy the Islamist forces and bring peace and stability—enforced by his own army”   

That’s a giant laugh out loud. The Islamist/CIA agent allied with Al Qaeda is going to destroy Islamist forces, like el- Sisi the great Islamist fighter …Absurd. 

 Haftar was left to rot in Chad by Gadaffi decades ago, most probably due to the fact that Gadaffi found out Haftar was a turn coat. Haftar was eventually retrieved in Chad and whisked away to Virginia. The CIA got their man.

Haftar’s mercenary forces call themselves or are known as  the Libyan National Army. So they rebranded from the National Front for the Salvation of Libya (which destroyed Libya with NATO’s help and murdered Gadafi) to the Libyan National Army. The use of the word national in both cases brings to mind ‘nation’, like the nation of Libya, so it’s misleading. And intentionally so.

And one last twist to the tale of Haftar. Haftar was reported DEAD in 2018. He is in his 70’s so death or incapacitation from stroke is a real possibility.

• Khalifa Haftar has Died in Paris. Maybe?

“Unconfirmed reports that General Khalifa Haftar, a key figure in Libya’s political landscape, has died in Paris hospital are fueling speculation about the country’s future. Haftar had suffered a stroke earlier this week. 

The situation will become even more unstable should Mr Haftar die or become too incapacitated to lead the LNA. The LNA is a patchwork of tribal militias that have pledged loyalty to Mr Haftar allied with some former Libyan army units, rather than a singular force. As such, Mr Haftar is the unifying factor at present—and he has no obvious successor. In this context, rifts would probably emerge within the LNA and a power struggle for its leadership and key resources, such as oil infrastructure, could lead to internal fighting”

  Makes one wonder if Haftar is kept ‘alive’ in order to maintain cohesion among the CIA backed LNA?  Has there been recent imagery of him? We sure read much about his “army” but what about the man? Anyone?

But let’s get back to Turkey and Libya, the Mediterranean neighbourhood and a trade agreement presented as if the world had fallen apart. And maybe for the Usrael empire  the situation had become more complicated- hence the common presentation via the imperial media. Yet, there are competing interests and that’s the point of this entire series.
  Contrary to claims by the obfuscating media it seems that Turkey did demarcate a maritime border…. which will undoubtedly be disputed but nonetheless they’ve staked out their space

World Oil.com

Turkey and Libya officially approved a contentious maritime deal that may fuel an energy showdown in the gas-rich waters of the eastern Mediterranean, where both countries are at odds with Greece.
The Nov. 27 preliminary agreement demarcates an 18.6-nautical mile (35-kilometer) line that will form the maritime boundary separating what will be the two countries’ respective exclusive economic zones. Libya’s presidential council and Turkey’s parliament approved the memorandum of understanding, Anadolu Agency said Friday. It is now expected to be filed with the United Nations.
“This agreement also amounts to a political message that Turkey can’t be sidelined in the eastern Mediterranean and nothing can be really achieved in the region without Turkey’s participation,” Cagatay Erciyes, a senior foreign ministry official in charge of maritime and aviation boundary affairs, said on Thursday.
Greece, Cyprus and Egypt see the deal as a brazen Turkish bid for dominance in the contested waters. Libya is also in conflict with Greece over off-shore exploration licenses Athens issued for waters south of Crete, which is located between Turkey and Libya.

Libya is in conflict with Greece, same as Turkey is and lo and behold they sign an agreement together- should this be shocking? No.

Turkey’s main opposition party CHP backed the agreement.

Turkey & Libya’s joint trade agreement might give Israel a cause for concern? Maybe?

Turkey/Israeli relations following Libya deal

In fact, the world and especially the riparian states are closely following these “events,” which could also be named “belated decisions from Turkey.”
One of these states is Israel, which has been for a long time looking for ways to transport to Europe the natural gas that will be gathered from the hydrocarbon fields in the Eastern Mediterranean.
One of the most remarkable of developments was the formation of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) in Cairo in January 2019. Turkey, Syria and Lebanon not being included drew attention while countries like Egypt, Israel, Greece, Palestine and the Greek Cypriot administration were included in the forum. While the Minister of Petroleum of Egypt, Tarek al-Mala, said the forum is open to other riparian states in his opening speech, Israeli news sources stated that the forum is an anti-Turkey initiative and its goal is to inhibit the Republic of Turkey’s impact in the region

Turkey’s insistent calls for negotiations not getting appropriate responses from other countries in the region caused the game to get more serious.
Turkey decided to be present in the Eastern Mediterranean and defend its rights stemming from international law at any cost. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, “You can’t be at the table unless you are on the field.”
As a result, the Turkey-Libya Maritime Boundary Delimitation Agreement was signed Nov. 27 after long-standing meetings with Libya’s UN-recognized Government of National Accord. With this agreement, the maritime boundaries between Turkey and Libya were set and a possible Greece-Greek Cypriot administration and Greece-Egypt deal was rendered meaningless.

Moves and countermoves- not just one party or player involved.

It will be necessary for these countries to either remove their reservoirs and include all riparian states in the forum or to create a new forum where countries who do not want to collaborate with Turkey will be excluded.
Since the developments are very fresh, it is too soon to predict how these countries will react.
However, the Turkish-Israeli relations in the following period and the potential opportunities that might arise after will be a good starting point for future projections. In contrast, it’s absolutely certain that the new diplomatic process will be a more rational one for all shareholders.   

Personally, I doubt Israel will negotiate with Turkey.That’s my opinion.  In fact as you will read, Israel is carrying on it’s plans..

Meanwhile Cyrus reached out to some of it’s Mediterranean neighbours  and others

 Cyprus Mail: “Christodoulides held telephone conversations with: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov; Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry; United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan; Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi; and Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
The maritime deal ends Turkey’s isolation in the East Mediterranean as it ramps up offshore energy exploration that has alarmed Greece and some other neighbours. The military deal would preserve its lone ally in the region, Tripoli.”

“ends Turkey’s isolation in the Eastern Mediterranean” What parties were seeking to isolate Turkey and why?

“The military deal would preserve its lone ally in the region, Tripoli.” Isn’t the  government in Tripoli  the officially recognized/ UN sanctioned government of Libya? It is and yet… it’s get the pariah treatment. That’s odd isn’t it?

Cyrprus Mail: “Meanwhile on January 2 Cyprus, Greece, and Israel are to sign an agreement for the construction of the EastMed pipeline, seen as a response to the Turkey-Libya maritime deal.

The $7-9 billion pipeline would have to cross the planned Turkey-Libya economic zone.”  

Meanwhile…. Damascus Signs Contract to Develop Offshore Oil Wells With Russian Firms

This recent development is interesting since Damascus/Syria (Turkey and Lebanon)  had been entirely shut out of the eastern med by Israel, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt and the US/UK- despite having a stake in the resources of the Mediterranean- Look again at the map. Syria’s coastline runs between Turkey and Lebanon’s coast.

“Syrian Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ali Ghanem said that the country has signed contracts with two Russian companies to jointly develop two blocks of Syria’s offshore oilfields. The contracts still have to be ratified before the drilling can commence in the future.
The two countries also negotiated to jointly create an oil and geological centre as part of an energy roadmap for Syria, the minister added. The Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas will be the key partner in the project on Moscow’s side.”

This is getting very long, so, I’ll sum it up by stating or actually restating… the situation in and around the Mediterranean is complex and competitive. This is not a simple case of “bad Turkey” or “bad Libya” as is very commonly presented in the 5 eyes main stream and alternative media. That angle is a carefully crafted, pro empire bias that only serves to manipulate your understanding of what is happening in the region. Much in the way of resource profit and control is at stake. Countries can survive or be further weakened depending on the outcome of this situation.  And you and I can be duped dupes or we can take the time to understand the nexus of interests as they converge and diverge in this area.

It’s now 2022

If you been paying attention to intersecting pipelines and energy routes you’d have noticed that this area (Eastern Mediterranean) has recently been in the news and there are some hostilities being stirred up. As would be expected.

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2019/12/pt-1-meddling-outsiders-and.html

As yours truly stated at that time..

Part of the remake the region agenda includes the creation of a Usrael proxy terror  state, Rojova, which necessitates the theft of and further ethnic cleansing of still more Syrian territory in order to connect Rojova to this, vital for it’s survival, waterway.  The sea in the centre of the world. The sea that connects three continents.   
There have been previous reports here discussing massive resources the conflicting neighbours and outsiders are attempting to take control of. The resources in the Mediterranean are a large, no they are a huge factor in the Israeli/Palestine ‘conflict’ We’ll look at that fact , albeit briefly. As we also consider reports in the 5 eyes alt and msm painting Turkey as the ‘bad guy’ or sole problem in the region. Is that realistic? No way in hell.

Turkey has legitimate interests in the Mediterranean, since they border that sea… with an expansive coastline. To say they have no interests only serves the US/Israel and EU/NATO nations that have been and continue to do their most dastardly deeds in order to reshape the region into something more suitable to their interests and their interests alone.This reshape excludes Turkey in it’s present day form, Syria (until they can get Rojova to the Med) Lebanon, Russia which needs the Mediterranean as a warm water port and Iran. Those that are massaging perception in an empire friendly way have to be serving that remake agenda. There is simply no other reason for the nonsense I see being passed off as “analysis” about the happenings around the Mediterranean.

The link below is non viable as it goes back into my censored blog. At some point in time the info will be moved here.

Gas Heats the Eastern Mediterranean

Competition for security and energy is at the center of recent developments in the Eastern Mediterranean.

 Egypt and Israel, once the standard-bearers of the Israel-Arab conflict, have established a broad and cooperative energy and security relationship centering around the mutually beneficial exploitation and transport of commercially significant quantities of offshore natural gas.

Hmm, did that news get much coverage? Just wondering? At the time that report was published here my observation went like this..

Egypt and Israel’s buddying up explains why dictator el Sisi get’s a free pass in the media. And is promoted (as anti Islamist) by disinfo agents on line

“Turkey and Lebanon are notably absent from this new club. “

 Oh, gee that’s so “odd” Turkey and Lebanon absent from this new club despite having coastline in the Mediterranean.

See map here-

Turkey and Lebanon as well as Syria all have coastlines on the Mediterranean.

 March 2017: Greece/Cyprus Provocation as Pretext to Renounce Turkey ?

Moreover, Italy, Greece, Greek Cypriot and Israel had already agreed on the construction of a gas pipeline from newly discovered fields. The project — dubbed “East-Med” — will cost some $6 billion. An over 2,000-kilometer-long (1,243-mile-long) pipeline will channel offshore reserves in the Levantine basin to Greece and Italy.

The East-Med project could be interpreted as an effort to form a regional alliance between Greek Cypriot and Greece to confront Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean.

Confronting Turkey? But Turkey is a NATO ally? Whaaat????

It’s been stated very clearly here and for some time now that NATO no longer sees Turkey as an ally- Since the 5/6 eyes  have other plans.. Remaking the region plans with the intent to weaken Turkey, substantially. Making Turkey an easily controllable piece in the great game. At this time Turkey’s leadership is not going along to get along. Turkey’s leadership has been acting in the interests of Turkey. Not in the interests of the US. Israel. NATO. And the displeasure has long been obvious.

Heralding the Rise of Russia- Arevordi has a great new piece. I’m working on reading it, but, do wish to include a bit of his opening paragraphs here. Arevordi’s piece covers the Armenian genocide issue- but he understands that Usrael has a problem with Turkey at this time. And it’s the leadership.
 And the very obvious Usrael problem with Turkey is why I’m highly suspicious of those writing obfuscating diatribes regarding Turkey and the situation in the Mediterranean sea and region. 

“ I want to again remind the reader that the Anglo-American-Jewish problem is exclusively with Turkey’s belligerent Recep Tayyip Erdogan and NOT with the country of Turkey itself”

 Mediterranean Resources and the Israeli Palestine Conflict

2009 more then 10 years ago: aha ! Palestinian natural gas coveted by Israel  in the Israeli/Gaza conflict (Lebanon covered here as well)

Gaza is a small strip of land on the Mediterranean Sea. Its territorial waters extend to about 35km off the coast. In 1999, the oil firm BG International discovered a huge deposit of natural gas 32km from the Gaza coast. The Gaza Marine gas field contains 1.2 trillion cubic feet of gas valued at over $4 billion.   

 Hamas won the elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council in 2006. This sparked off a bitter power struggle between Hamas and the pro-west Fatah. Ultimately, the Palestinian Authority split in 2007, with Hamas taking control of Gaza and Fatah taking control of West Bank. One of the first things that Hamas did after getting elected was to declare that the natural gas deal would have to be renegotiated.

Then began the Israeli blockade of Gaza……

Pretty sure there are other reports here covering the Israeli Palestine aspect, but, you can easily find more should you be so inclined.

From 2011: An Israeli Natural Gas Pipeline to Greece

“ Israel is considering a plan to build an underwater natural gas pipeline to Europe as a way to transport gas being drilled from offshore wells in the eastern Mediterranean. The plan, as reported August 30 in Globes, involves a pipeline that will run from the Tamar and Dalit gas fields, located off Israel’s northern coastline, and along the seabed to Greece.

    Israel’s northern neighbor, Lebanon, is challenging Israel’s claim of ownership in these gas fields and has brought the issue to the attention of the UN General Assembly.”

2017: Israel Turkey Pipeline Hangs on Cyprus (this agreement failed)

“Although Turkey constitutes Israel’s most commercially viable natural gas market, a failure in Geneva would lead Israel and the Republic of Cyprus government in south Cyprus, which controls the Aphrodite offshore gas field, to look for alternative ways to export natural gas to Europe. Both countries desperately need to secure a stable export market in order to finance the development of their gas industries. In this circumstance, Russia would have a strong strategic interest to incentivize Israel and the government in south Cyprus to export gas via Egypt in order to gain greater influence over non-Russian supply sources and routes to the EU natural gas market”

Again from 2017: censored work

In sum — and in comparison to 2017 — one will witness more eventful scenes in the eastern Mediterranean in 2018. The only actor that could mediate between Ankara and Nicosia is not Washington but Moscow, the new shining star of the Middle East.

As has already been stated this is a complex and competitive situation. And the Mediterranean has certainly become more eventful.  With multiple players on different sides having diverging interests. BUT, the US and Israel are doing their best to unify or rally servile nations and mindless automatons against Turkey, Libya, Iran, Russia, China and Lebanon in order to reshape the region in a manner that suits their interests. 

The US and company did let their vision go forth and haven’t tried to piece together clever diplomacy or any diplomacy for that matter. This is where we are now.

Consider this the back ground related to the attack on North Stream 1 and 2. An attack that points to US involvement. Likely not alone, but, definitely US leadership.

Some of my previous research/work is being moved to this, my new site. This series was published in 2019 at my big tech censored site and was published in 3 parts. There will also be a fourth repost included as well- The information should, hopefully, shed some light on American goals to keep Europe subjugated and dependent on their largesse.

original url

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-mediterranean-sea-in-middle-of.html

Any links that are still viable will be included. Enjoy the read below:

The piece below gives us some very good background on the importance of and desire to control the Mediterranean. Have to do with the FACT it is bordered by three continents.  
 Yes, three continents converge on the shores of the Sea in the Middle of the Earth. AND it is resource rich- ripe for exploration.
 Making it a strategically important waterway. If you want to have a basic grasp, historically speaking, which sheds light on the present day jockeying for position in and around the Mediterranean- read below:

Hoover Institute

The Mediterranean Sea is today, as it has always been, a crossroads. The name itself testifies to that, as it means “the sea in the middle of the earth,” a Latin term reflecting an earlier Greek belief. We know better, or do we? From Syria to Libya and on the high seas, and with outside players including China, Iran, Russia, and the United States, the Mediterranean has re-emerged of late as a cockpit of conflict.

In an era of renewed Great Power competition, with a contrast between prosperity to the north and instability and poverty to the south and east, with revisionist powers present and with a clash of ideologies (Western secularism versus radical Islam) in the mix, the Mediterranean’s recent prominence is not surprising. The region was rarely completely at peace in the last century. Indeed, the Mediterranean is only returning to a role it has often played before, and for good reason. The Mediterranean is both a fault line of cultures in conflict and a geostrategic chokepoint.

Three continents meet around the Mediterranean: Africa, Asia, and Europe. Nowhere else on earth are three continents in such close proximity. Furthermore, the Mediterranean offers access to the Atlantic Ocean in the West and the Black Sea in the East, each through narrow waterways.

In the West lies the Strait of Gibraltar between Europe and Africa, while in the East the Hellespont, the Sea of Marmara, and the Bosporus separate Europe and Asia by the thinnest of margins. Ever since the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869, the Mediterranean has also been connected to the Indian Ocean via the Red Sea. Even in ancient times, a series of small canals connected the Nile River—and, thereby, the Mediterranean—to the Red Sea, but they were in no way as efficient or as navigable as the Suez Canal.

In historical terms, the Mediterranean has often been the crucible of conflict between East and West. Think, for example, of the battles of Salamis between Greeks and Persians in 480 BC or Cannae between Rome and Carthage in 216 BC or Lepanto between the Ottoman Turks and a Christian alliance in 1571. Since the Middle Ages the Mediterranean has represented an often-shifting border between two great conquering religions, each with a claim to universality, Christianity and Islam.
The Mediterranean is an enclosed sea, about 2.5 million square kilometers in area. Warm and relatively tideless, it is generally navigable, although not without some challenging winds and currents. The ancients avoided sailing the Mediterranean in the winter. Yet they knew that it served as a highway, as a medium of exchange and a path of invasion. Plato’s Socrates put the Mediterranean’s centrality succinctly when he said: “We live around the sea like frogs around a pond” (Plato, Phaedo 109B).

The Romans called the Mediterranean mare nostrum, “our sea,” and with good reason. They were the first people in recorded history to unify the Mediterranean and to govern all the lands surrounding it. The Romans all but wiped out piracy. Under their rule, there was no major naval battle on the Mediterranean between the Battle of Actium in 31 BC and the Battle of Cape Bon in 468, with the exception of the Battle of the Hellespont in 324, for 350 to 500 years of peace.

Not only were the Romans the first people to unify the Mediterranean, they were the last. No other empire or hegemon has done the same since, although various powers, from the Arabs to NATO, have predominated in one period or another. That is surely a sign both of the competitors in the Mediterranean and of the challenge facing any one state to defeat all others in the region.

Historically, the Mediterranean has been a crossroads, and it remains so today. Currently the Mediterranean is bordered by 19 separate countries, including two sovereign islands (Cyprus and Malta) as well as Gaza and British territories (in Cyprus and Gibraltar). In another sign of a crossroads: although the Mediterranean comes under the U.S. European Command, it is bordered by countries in CENTCOM (U.S. Central Command) and U.S. Africa Command.

Trade has always been a part of Mediterranean life, from the so-called thalassocracy or “sea domination” of Bronze-Age Minoan Crete, to the reflections of ancient trading patterns in Homer’s Odyssey (the Mycenaean Greeks traded in Sicily and Southern Italy), to the grain fleet that sailed from Egypt to feed imperial Rome, to the Arab, Italian, and Jewish merchants of the Middle Ages, to today’s European Union, in which the states of the southern rim live in very uneasy economic coexistence with the rich northern states like France (itself partly Mediterranean) and Germany. The flip side of trading is piracy and raiding, a recurring phenomenon in the region from the Sea Peoples who threatened empires at the end of the Bronze Age, to the Barbary Pirates of the nineteenth century. For a time in the early twenty-first century, piracy was a problem off the Horn of Africa, threatening shipping that had come through the Suez Canal. An international task force has, in recent years, successfully suppressed the threat.
But there are other, less violent challenges to the economy. The economic success and political stability of the European Union, particularly in northern Europe, make it a migrant magnet. In 2015, a very busy year for migration, over one million arrived in Europe by sea. Others came via the land route. That year Germany alone accepted nearly a million migrants, mostly from Syria. The ensuing political controversy continues to shape German (and European) politics. But migration is nothing new in the Mediterranean. The Late Antique and medieval periods, for example, saw various Germanic, Slavic, and Turkic peoples—some refugees, some conquerors—move into Mediterranean realms.

Since 1945, decolonization—the retreat of empire—has been a major theme of Mediterranean history. Colonization and conquest, however, have been more common motifs in the region over the millennia, beginning with Iron-Age Greek and Phoenician colonies from the Black Sea to Spain’s Atlantic Coast. Then there were the great, conquering empires. Macedon (and its successor states), Carthage, and Rome all carved out territorial empires within the Mediterranean and, in the case of Macedon and Rome, for example, beyond it.

Some of the most impressive Mediterranean conquests, however, were made by outside invaders. In ancient times Assyria and Persia (both in the Achaemenid and Sasanian periods) expanded from southwestern Asia into the Levant and Egypt. In Late Antiquity Germanic peoples, most notably Goths and Vandals, crossed the Rhine and Danube, invaded the Roman Empire, and conquered such Mediterranean lands as Spain, Italy, and North Africa. In the Middle Ages the Arabs advanced from Arabia to conquer the Levant, North Africa, Spain, and Sicily, long governed parts of southern Italy and France, continually attacked Corsica and Sardinia, and even raided the Vatican. In modern times, Italy and France each acquired imperial positions in North Africa and in the Aegean and the Levant.

Hegemonic rather than territorial empires also have played a key role in Mediterranean history, as is only appropriate for a sea. Various states have sought bases to promote maritime trade and project naval power rather than lands to settle. In antiquity there was Athens; in the Middle Ages, Genoa and Venice; in more recent times, Britain’s Royal Navy and the United States and its NATO allies have each dominated the Mediterranean Sea, but not without challenges. In the World Wars, Germany and Italy competed with the Allies for control of the sea. Russia, which has long had Mediterranean ambitions, continues today to project power in the region, most notably in Syria, where it has both an air base and a naval facility. China has recently become a major investor in such places as Greece, Israel, Italy, and Turkey.

Iran represents a different kind of hegemonic power in today’s Mediterranean, working primarily through land forces and aviation rather than by sea. Iran has a strong presence in Syria and Lebanon, over a land bridge through Iraq. Its arc of influence extends eastward to Yemen, and further east into Central Asia. This marks the greatest extent of Iranian power since the Early Byzantine era.

And then there is Turkey. The Mediterranean is NATO’s southern flank and, in Turkey, it also includes NATO’s largest Old-World army. And Turkey is a restless ally under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, full of neo-Ottoman ambitions and eager to expand its influence. Turkey has proven a ripe target for the equally revisionist and immensely shrewd Vladimir Putin, who has successfully revived Russian power. Russia’s sale of its S-400 air defense missile system has put a dent in NATO’s armor, adding to U.S.-Turkish tensions involving the Kurds and Syria. The upshot advances Putin’s ambitions.

While northern and western Europe have been largely spared war since 1945 (with Ukraine a recent exception), the Mediterranean has suffered. Traveling around the basin clockwise, and staying relatively close to the sea, we have: the Yugoslav Wars, the Greek Civil War, the invasion of Cyprus, the Syrian Civil War, the Lebanese Civil War, the various Arab-Israeli wars, the Libyan Civil Wars, the Algerian War of Independence, and the Algerian Civil War.

In ancient times underground resources sometimes proved to be of strategic significance. Athens, for instance, financed the fleet that defeated the Persian Invasion of 480-479 B.C. with silver discovered in the mines south of the city. Carthage paid for Hannibal’s mercenaries with silver from the mines that it had conquered in Iberia.

More recently, large amounts of oil and gas have been discovered in the Eastern Mediterranean. Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, and Israel have established cooperation agreements, but other countries are trying to gain influence over these resources. China, Iran, Russia, and Turkey all want a share, and at least some have launched challenges for control.

The author appears unaware or is most probably being misleading by lumping in Turkey, Russia, China and Iran together presenting as “outsiders” who want a share of resources. Turkey is on the Mediterranean. (It’s like reading MoA- misleading)

In one regard, the Mediterranean might become less important, and that has to do with its role as a transportation hub. Today the key to shipping between Europe and East Asia, the Suez Canal in the future might be overshadowed by alternatives. One possibility is a sea-land transport route linking western Europe and South Asia and involving India, Iran, and Russia. Another is an Arctic Ocean shipping route, which may become commercially feasible because of global warming and ice melt. That route is two weeks faster than the current itinerary between East Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal. So, if continued warning makes it feasible, it would mark a genuine change.

Yet that remains to be seen. For the foreseeable future, the Mediterranean will continue to be a restless route of commerce and conflict. Neither Athens nor Rome, Istanbul nor Jerusalem, Cairo nor Madrid might have the power they once did in ages past, but their destiny is not something that London or Berlin can safely ignore, not with Moscow, Teheran, Beijing, and Washington all taking part. The Mediterranean continues to be a central sea.

Barry Strauss teaches history and Classics at Cornell.