Interesting excerpts from a 2019 report

Economic Cost-Imposing Measures

Expanding U.S. energy production would stress Russia’s economy, potentially constraining its government budget and, by extension, its defense spending. By adopting policies that expand world supply and depress global prices, the United States can limit Russian revenue. Doing so entails little cost or risk, produces second-order benefits for the U.S. economy, and does not need multilateral endorsement.

Already in action

Imposing deeper trade and financial sanctions would also likely degrade the Russian economy, especially if such sanctions are comprehensive and multilateral. Thus, their effectiveness will depend on the willingness of other countries to join in such a process. But sanctions come with costs and, depending on their severity, considerable risks.

Already in action

Increasing Europe’s ability to import gas from suppliers other than Russia could economically extend Russia and buffer Europe against Russian energy coercion.

Already in action

Providing lethal aid to Ukraine would exploit Russia’s greatest point of external vulnerability. But any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages.

Enacted years ago– With Trump making the first substantive provisions, as mentioned here and acknowledged by Trump

Increasing support to the Syrian rebels could jeopardize other U.S. policy priorities, such as combating radical Islamic terrorism, and could risk further destabilizing the entire region

Despite the risks the US did do just that. One would assume the US is okay with the region being destabilized.

Expanding ties in the South Caucasus—competing economically with Russia—would be difficult because of geography and history.

Ongoing with Armenia (successful) and Georgia (still a work in progress)

Of course, read the rest at the link provided.

The Trump administration comes into office as the United States and its Western allies are on the verge of losing Georgia, and the loss to U.S. interests would be considerable. Once one of America’s most reliable non-NATO partners on the European continent, providing valuable personnel to U.S.-led missions, Georgia also is part of an important strategic land corridor for Central Asian resources and trade — the only non-Russian, non-Iranian rail and pipelines to the West run through Georgia.

Providing valuable personnel to US led missions? Mercenaries or Soldiers of Fortune would definitely be valuable personnel.

The Georgian roots of Isis commander Omar al-Shishani

He was born Tarkhan Batirashvili and grew up in Georgia’s picturesque Pankisi Gorge. He lived in the village of Birkiani, where his father, a Christian, still lives in a small, simply-furnished house.

The jihad in Syria and Iraq was not Shishani’s first experience with combat. He previously served with the Georgian army during the war with Russia in 2008.

Back to Just Security

U.S. Marines and Georgian troops trained and deployed together in Afghanistan to defend Bagram airbase. In August 2017, then-President Donald Trump’s vice president, Mike Pence, visited Tbilisi, and, several months later, the Trump administration announced it would provide Georgia with long sought-after Javelin antitank missiles, overturning the Obama-era policy of not giving Georgia lethal weapons. And in 2018, Georgia launched a $53 million in-country initiative with the U.S. Army, called the Georgia Defense Readiness Program, to train and equip the Georgian military.

Fear of Moscow

Not surprisingly, Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin found these moves provocative. It already controlled two northern provinces of Georgia after its 2008 invasion. In 2019, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigoriy Karasin warned Tbilisi of consequences for its deepening cooperation with the United States and NATO: “[I]f such activities continue to develop, this will lead to problems,” Karasin warned. “We all know how the problems in Ukraine started.

Of course Moscow would find these moves provocative because they are intended to be provocative.

Georgian Dream also allowed three high-profile U.S. initiatives to lapse without renewal or replacement: the Millennium Challenge program in 2019 and the U.S. Army’s Georgian Defense Readiness Program and the U.S. Marines’ joint training and deployment program in 2021.

In conspiratorial tones, Georgian Dream officials falsely (Falsely?) and repeatedly claimed there was a “deep-state global war party” in Washington trying to blackmail Georgia into opening a second front against Russia. They accused representatives of the U.S. Agency for International Development of training political activists to overthrow the Georgian Dream government. The Russian government seconded the claim, calling it a U.S. plan to foment a “color revolution” that Russia was ready to help prevent.

USAID training political activists to overthrow the government- Sounds about right.

Georgia’s rightful president, Zourabichvili, is coming to Washington for President-elect Trump’s inauguration Jan. 20. She has been an outspoken critic of Georgia’s October parliamentary elections and an organizer among the opposition forces against the government

Zourabichvili mentioned in the post directly below;

A western backed overthrow has been in the works, with multiple attempts made, for some time

But, that’s the fact- This is as near an exact duplicate to the Western backed Ukraine Maidan as you can get. I’m going to omit the colourful descriptions, you can enjoy that for yourself at the link provided

The Economist

https://archive.ph/injkm#selection-977.0-977.59

Over the past few days similar events have been playing out in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia. Tens of thousands of demonstrators have poured into the streets every night. Police have beaten and tear-gassed protestors, who have surrounded the parliament building and subjected it to a barrage of fireworks. “Our future is being stolen from us,” said 29-year-old Michael Meskhi, gesturing towards the crowd, many wearing gas masks. “We all want the same thing: Europe, not Russia.”

With an abundance of gas masks and giant fireworks being aimed as weapons- these peaceful “pro- democracy” protests carry on

The authorities still seem confident, and observers say there is little chance of a Maidan-style collapse

On October 26th GD claimed to have won another election. The opposition rejected the results immediately, but protests were small and evidence of gross fraud was lacking, muting the international reaction

As reports of voter intimidation and ballot irregularities trickled in, it “became clear that the elections were stolen”,

Actual evidence of “gross fraud” was lacking, then suddenly, NGO originating reports of voter intimidation and ballot irregularities be de rigeur

The trigger has been the government’s apparent decision to turn away from the West. On November 28th the European Parliament passed a resolution declaring that the elections had been “neither free nor fair”, and called for new ones.

America, in turn, suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia. The Georgian move represents a deliberate break with the West, says Kornely Kakachia, head of the Georgian Institute of Politics, a think-tank in Tbilisi: “[Georgian Dream] no longer wants the EU’s conditionality. Instead they aim to consolidate power and lean towards illiberal states like Russia, China or Iran.” Mr Ivanishvili has tried to frighten Georgians by invoking the Ukrainian example, warning that a move towards the West would provoke Russia to attack the country again, as it did in 2008.

The protests are unlikely to simply dissipate, but they lack a clear leader. The only consolidating figure is Salome Zourabichvili, the president, whose powers are largely ceremonial. She has come out on the side of the protesters. Mr Ivanishvili wants to replace her with Mikheil Kavelashvili, a footballer, when her term expires later this month. But on November 30th Ms Zourabichvili said she would not step down unless new parliamentary elections were held; the next president is to be chosen by parliament, but she says the current one is illegitimate.

Though Georgia is in full-blown crisis, within the state itself defections have so far been confined to the resignations of several ambassadors and mid-ranking officials. There are no signs of disloyalty among the police, and the NATO-trained army has stayed in its barracks.

I quoted that specifically because Georgia has an interesting history with it’s NATO trained army- One that connects it directly to Syria & ISIS in Syria. If the NATO trained army steps out of it's barracks- look for irregular army tactics- terrorism.

Georgia is suspending talks on its bid to join the European Union for four years, its prime minister said Thursday, in view of what he described as “blackmail and manipulation” from some of the bloc’s politicians. His announcement outraged the opposition and triggered a new wave of protests.

That is exactly what the EU is doing! Blackmail, manipulation and bullying

Breaking: Georgia is clearing the streets of western/eu NGO backed protestors out

This all came about immediately after the EU demanded new Georgian elections- So they could have another opportunity to steal them.

On Thursday, the European Parliament adopted a resolution condemning the 26 October parliamentary elections in Georgia, an EU candidate country, for being neither free nor fair, representing yet another manifestation of the continued democratic backsliding of the country “for which the ruling Georgian Dream party is fully responsible”.

The EU must impose sanctions and limit formal contacts with the Georgian government

While supporting calls for an independent international investigation into the allegations of electoral manipulation, Parliament wants the EU and its member states to impose personal sanctions on the officials and political leaders

The EU parliament is a dictatorship- Georgia is going to have to be on guard in a big way. Western backed terror attacks may occur. Possibly political assassinations. It’s all possible.

Flashback

And

Considering he’s ended Ukrainian elections, has enacted martial law as well as forced military conscription in Ukraine… The freedom bringer Zelensky a light in the darkness– or something along those lines

The President Salome Zourabichvili is a French citizen, born in Paris.

A citizen of France for most of her life, a career French diplomat who became a Georgian citizen and started her own political party-

Of course she is leading the charge of election fraud. Of course. She is providing all the “right” talking points to western media- Of course.

We’ve been informed of the allowable parameters of discussion via her spoon fed to the media talking points, all of them sounding as if they’ve come right out of US state department via Brussels. I’m trying to find something readable! Thank goodness for the piece below from Responsible Statecraft!

An unfortunate rush to judgment in Georgia elections

The Western media is indulging the preassembled narrative: that the only way the government could win was by rigging

That’s sooo obvious!

One did not have to be an Elijah or an Amos to predict the aftermath of the Georgian elections, but all the same, the Quincy Institute and Responsible Statecraft can claim a modest prize for prophecy. The domestic and international background to the elections and the ensuing crisis are analyzed in a QI policy brief published earlier this month; and as I wrote for RS back in July:

“Parliamentary elections are due in Georgia on October 26, and the universal opinion among Georgians with whom I have spoken is that if the government wins, the opposition, backed by pro-Western NGOs, will allege that the results were falsified, and will launch a mass protest movement in an effort to topple the Georgian Dream government. Judging by recent statements, most Western establishments will automatically take the side of the opposition. This narrative is already well underway, with lines like ‘Government vs. the People in Georgia’ and ‘a crisis that has pitted the government against its people.’ This suggests that Georgia is a dictatorship in which ‘the people’ have no say except through street protests.”

Good foresight back in July!

This is exactly what has happened. According to the results issued by the National Election Commission, the governing Georgian Dream Party won 53 percent of the vote to 38 percent for the different opposition parties. The opposition, however, immediately alleged fraud, and declared that its MPs would boycott the new parliament, thereby depriving it of a quorum.

The pro-opposition President, Salome Zourabichvili, stated that Georgians were “victims of what can only be described as a Russian special operation – a new form of hybrid warfare waged against our people and our country.” However, when asked by Western journalists to substantiate this, she could only say that the government had used “Russian methodology.”

Her people? Her country? Is she talking about that absurd French election? Remember those? Yah, Macron is still there! Can you hear the crickets?

She mixed accusations of electoral falsification with an appeal for “the firm support of our European and American partners to the part of Georgia that is European, that is the Georgian population.” This is a quite different argument. It implies that whatever the results of the elections, the only real “Georgian population” is the part that identifies with the West. Only their voice is truly legitimate, and a government that does not unconditionally follow the “European Path” is inherently illegitimate, elections or no elections.

Much of the Western media immediately responded with headlines like “Georgians join mass rally” and “Georgians protest contested election results,” suggesting (without directly asserting) that this is indeed a case of “the people” against a government, as if the government has no real support at all – despite the fact that even if the government’s election victory is contested, there can be no doubt at all that a very large proportion of the Georgian population voted for them.

The Biden administration and other Western governments and institutions have not even waited for detailed reports from their own observers to call the election results into question. Moreover, it must be stated with regret that many of these observers can hardly be called objective.

Please do read the rest of the responsible statecraft piece at the link provided

The EU/Western darling President, has asked for people to take it to the streets. And Ukrainian politicians were present in Georgia, during the election. But let’s blame Russia

Georgian Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili defended the ruling Georgian Dream party’s highly controversial nearly 54 percent victory in the October 26 elections, denying allegations of fraud by opposition and observers. At the October 28 briefing, he accused opposition forces and civil society organizations of trying to stir unrest in the country through disinformation campaigns. “They don’t want to accept people’s will,” he said.

https://news.am/eng/news/849464.html

The US needs to clean up it’s own elections.. Looking very tinpot for a while now, as have Canada’s. The recent election in BC and lack of ability to count ballots in a timely fashion is suspect. The EU is down right autocratic since the institution runs roughshod over each nation

TBILISI. Oct 28 (Interfax) – Georgian Central Elections Commission (CEC) Chairman Giorgi Kalandarishvili announced the results of Saturday’s parliamentary elections on Sunday.

Data from 3,100 out of 3,111 polling stations was processed, he said.

“The remaining several polling stations are abroad, and information will be updated after they submit data,” Kalandarishvili said.

The Georgian Dream ruling party has won the elections with 54.08% of votes, he said. It is followed by four partners which passed the electoral threshold of 5%, – the Coalition for Changes with 10.92%, the United National Movement with 10.12%, A Strong Georgia with 8.72%, and For Georgia with 7.76%.

The Government of Canada has introduced legislation to create a registry of foreign agents that would be less independent and potentially less transparent than the current federal lobbyists’ registry.

Perhaps because it’s largely a meaningless move?

AA

In an interview with Anadolu, Yildiz Deveci Bozkus, a professor at Ankara University who has expertise in Armenia and Caucasus issues, assessed the ongoing rallies and discussions over a controversial ‘foreign agents’ bill in Georgia, as well as its repercussions.

Q: Why did the people revolt in Georgia?

Bozkus: The adoption of the bill known as the bill “On the Transparency of Foreign Influence” in Georgia with a large approval rate caused mobilization in the streets of Tbilisi. If the bill in question comes into force, organizations established in Georgia and that receive more than 20% of their funds from abroad will have to be registered as “agents of foreign influence” or “organizations that pursue the interests of a foreign power.” If the bill comes into force, the registration process of such organizations will be controlled by Georgia’s Justice Ministry.

All organizations established in Georgia that receive more than 20% of their funds from abroad have to register as “agents of foreign influence” or “organizations that pursue the interests of a foreign power.” I would think Georgians would be pleased that influence peddlers would be known as such?

Q: What does the “foreign agents” bill mean for the sides?

Bozkus: The fact that the bill, which was discussed before but was withdrawn due to public and opposition protests, is now back on the agenda has caused some disagreements in society. A group in Georgia says that this law alienates the country from the EU and deals a blow to freedom of thought. On the other hand, these developments also bring to mind the question of whether Georgia will be the new Ukraine, because it is known that the recent developments in the South Caucasus are directly related to global developments. In this regard, it should be noted that the victory in Karabakh as well as the Russia-Ukraine war affected the developments in Georgia.

Q: Is Georgia turning into a new arena of struggle between Russia and the Western world?

Bozkus: Fault lines have been on the move in the South Caucasus for some time. Regional and global developments play an important role in the mobilization of these fault lines. For this reason, although the international public raises questions about whether Georgia will become a new Ukraine, what is happening in the region can actually be considered as the historical competition of global powers in the South Caucasus. On the other hand, it should not be forgotten that the developments in the South Caucasus are linked to the new conjunctures regarding the Karabakh region and the Zangezur corridor. This reveals that the Caucasus region has strategic importance in every period of history.

When we look at all these developments as a whole, it can be seen that global powers are trying to turn this region into a new arena of struggle, both in terms of timing and the content of the “foreign agents” law. This is because Georgia, as in many periods of history, has very critical importance, both in strategic and geopolitical terms

Last paragraph

On the other hand, the voices rising from the Western world regarding the actions that went down in history as one of the largest protests in Tbilisi since the dissolution of the Soviet Union give signs that the process will be painful. Countries such as the United States and England, which are called historical great powers, as well as countries such as Germany, Italy and France, which are important members of the EU, have stated that the bill should be withdrawn. This also shows that this bill clarifies the positions of the global ranks like a litmus test.

Related from the Duran– Georgia passes foreign agents law. Armenia protests

Keeping in mind the latest reporting regarding the attempted assassination of the Slovakian leader is not looking like a “lone wolf”

We know the name of the person from the EU- it’s included below

Euractive

In what Kobakhidze called a “horrific threat,” the unnamed EU official had referred to a recent assassination attempt on Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and told him to “be very careful”.

The Georgian prime minister did not disclose which Commissioner he was referring to. “For the purpose of prevention, I considered myself obliged to provide information about this threat to the Georgian society,” wrote Kobakhidze.

“The parallel drawn with the attempt to kill Robert Fico reminds us that in the form of a global war party, we are dealing with an extremely dangerous force that will do anything to bring chaos to Georgia,” he added.

According to the Georgian Dream (GD) party narrative, there is a ‘Global war party’, which for them refers to forces working to involve Georgia in Ukraine’s war with Russia and to open a ‘second front’ on Georgian territory.

There are forces looking to involve Georgia in the ongoing fight between Russia and Ukraine. If fact some Georgian persons openly protested on behalf of Ukraine. In Georgia. Western NGO’s have been present for a very long time in Georgia. And then there is the Georgia/Armenia axis and potential destabilization of Russia’s border

Georgian Dream politicians have over the past year used the narrative mostly to discredit Western politicians or civil society actors critical of the government’s actions, without naming who allegedly belongs to the named group.

In a statement published on Thursday evening, Enlargement Commissioner Várhelyi said his phone conversation with Kobakhidze had been “not just fully taken out of context but was also presented to the public in a way which could give rise to a complete misinterpretation of the originally intended aim of my phone call”.

Várhelyi said he had attempted to warn Kobakhidze “not to enflame further the already fragile situation by adopting this law which could lead to further polarisation and to possible uncontrolled situations on the streets of Tbilisi”.

Attempted to warn Kobakhidze? By threatening him? Perhaps it was you know a “friendly warning”? A warning from a friend.? But, not received as such?

He also said he had reiterated the EU’s call for the controversial ‘foreign agent’ bill to be withdrawn.

Trippin’ down memory lane

Images that should still be accessible at the links showed pro Ukraine protestors/protests in Georgia- Yup, NYPost images from Georgia-

Samantha Power

She said they have received disturbing accounts of violence against civilians (committed by Azerbaijani soldiers) from eyewitnesses. At the same time, given the chaotic situation that has developed so far and the trauma that people have experienced, it is necessary to listen to people’s stories to understand the real situation.

Samantha Power stressed that it is absolutely critical that humanitarian organization (USAID) be granted full and unimpeded access to the Lachin corridor and the towns in Nagorno Karabakh.

USAID should NOT have full and unimpeded access to this corridor

“President Biden sent me here to meet with Government officious, NGOs and civilians, families fleeing Nagorno Karabakh. Many of them fled their village sunder shelling, and many that have arrives are suffering from severe malnutrition, according to doctors,” she said.

“It is absolutely critical that international monitors and humanitarian organizations get access to the people in Nagorno Karabakh who still have dire needs,” the USAID Administrator stressed.

I’ve brought this location back up for a specific reason. The West, particularly France and the US, are looking for a reason to intervene. This is an attempt to destabilize the region. Targeting Iran, Turkey, Russia and redrawing borders that are advantageous to NATO interests

But it’s for “humanitarian reasons”- This appeals to the progressives who love war as long as it’s humanitarian- which it never is.

Security Service alleges coup

On the morning of September 18, the Georgian Security Service issued a statement saying that there are plans to repeat the Ukrainian Euromaidan in Georgia.

According to the SBG, behind this plan are “certain groups of individuals acting on the territory of Georgia and beyond its borders,” specifically ethnic Georgians working in the Ukrainian government and residing in Ukraine. The statement mentions three people:

Giorgi Lortkipanidze, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, who was deputy interior minister under Saakashvili’s government, is named as the author of the plan. A former security guard of ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili, Mikhail Baturin, is also mentioned. Another figure is Mamuka Mamulashvili, a member of Saakashvili’s closest entourage and commander of the Georgian Legion operating in Ukraine.

According to the SBG, the training of young people who will take part in the riots is taking place near the border with Poland:

“According to confirmed and verified information, the plan developed by Lortkipanidze is to use a rather large group of persons of Georgian origin fighting in Ukraine and a part of Georgian youth under the influence of interested parties, whose training is being conducted near the Polish-Ukrainian state border.”

The agency also names several Ukrainian organizations, which, according to its information, are also involved in the process:

“To prepare youth groups for use in the revolutionary scenario, the Kanvas organization is used, the core of which is the Otpor organization. These are the organizations that took active part in the revolutionary processes that unfolded in Serbia in the past, and, accordingly, are regularly used in different countries to train young people and involve them in destructive processes.”

Otpor + Gene Sharp/US Scholar = Western backed destablization tactics

According to the Georgian security service, all these individuals and people close to them are planning to stage mass riots in October-December. “The ultimate goal of this is to change the government by violent methods.”

October-December were not randomly chosen as the date for the start of destructive processes, the statement goes on, as this is the period when the interim and final conclusions of the European Commission [on Georgia’s obtaining the status of an EU candidate country] are to be published.

“The expectation of the conspirators preparing for the overthrow of state power is calculated that the published conclusion will be negative, which, with the information networks at their disposal, artificially attached to the government with the slogan of ‘pro-Russianity’, will create fertile ground for public unrest and further disturbances.”

“As for the scenario, according to the information of the SGB, several scenarios for the development of events are being considered, including the creation of the so-called “tent city”, erection of barricades on the central avenues and near strategic objects of Georgia, occupation and barricading of government buildings, as well as other illegal actions containing elements of serious provocation. In particular, it is confirmed that the organizers are considering the possibility of repeating in Georgia the Euromaidan that took place in Ukraine in 2014.”

The statement also stressed that this plan was planned with the coordination and financial support of foreign countries.

Associate Professor of Ilia State University Giorgi Meladze responds to the statement of SBG that the group “Kanvas” is engaged in preparing young people for such an event.

According to the director of “Kanvas”, no coup d’état is planned by the group, and the purpose of SBG is to intimidate people.

So what is being planned?

“SBG talks about coups… Which it always does, but this time it is adding the Kanwas organization to all this. I am currently the director of Kanvas-Georgia and I am not planning any coup. The only purpose of the statement is to intimidate people!

The statement against me was published in the spring. The author of the statement was [Irakli] Kobakhidze [chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream party], and even then he called me an “extremist.” I have worked with many groups and with various activists over the past 20 years, and it is very important for me to work together with active people in civil society to create better systems of governance. What the SBG is saying today, I have heard similar statements from authoritarian states before. No matter what, I will continue my work spreading knowledge about non-violent campaigns!”, said Giorgi Meladze.