**Good read- War, Inflation, and the Hidden Costs of Closing the World’s Most Important Strait

The article actually talks about 2 chokepoints, excerpts below, read entirely at link above

I want to talk about the thing nobody in Washington seems willing to say out loud, which is that the cost of this war is going to show up at your kitchen table before it shows up in any congressional budget hearing.

But I’m not writing about the war. Not really. I’m writing about what the war is doing to the invisible infrastructure of the global economy, the shipping lanes and insurance markets, fertilizer contracts, and airfreight corridors that nobody thinks about until they break.

Because they’re breaking right now, in ways that will take months to repair, and the people who will pay for it aren’t the ones making the decisions.

The Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Through that gap moves roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil, about 20.9 million barrels per day. It also carries a significant share of global liquefied natural gas, a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer exports, and a meaningful slice of container traffic linking Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

It is, as of right now, essentially closed.

Not formally. Nobody has dropped a chain across it. But Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the waterway shut to allied shipping.

Protection and indemnity insurers pulled coverage. War-risk premiums, which had already tripled in the days before the strikes, became irrelevant once insurers stopped offering any coverage at all.

And without insurance, no shipowner will send a vessel through. It’s not the missiles that closed the Strait. It’s the actuarial tables.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from an average of 138 vessels per day to roughly two.

One hundred and fifty tankers are sitting at anchor in open Gulf waters.

One hundred and forty-seven container ships are trapped inside the Persian Gulf, unable to exit.

Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, every major container line, has suspended operations. Maersk paused two key services linking the Middle East to Asia and Europe and halted all trans-Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Houthis, who had eased up on Red Sea attacks in recent months, announced they’re resuming. So now both chokepoints are closed, and the only way around is the Cape of Good Hope, which adds 10 to 14 days to every voyage.

This is what a dual chokepoint crisis looks like. It’s never happened before in modern container shipping.

Let me put this in dollars.

LNG shipping charter rates went from $40,000 a day to $300,000 a day in less than a week. That’s a 650 percent increase.

Asian spot LNG prices doubled.

Qatar halted all LNG production at its Ras Laffan hub, the largest LNG export complex on Earth, after Iranian drones hit facilities there, and declared force majeure on its contracts.

Qatar and the UAE together supply roughly 20 percent of the world’s LNG, and 85 percent of Qatar’s exports go to Asia.

The Oil Shock You Were Promised You’d Never See Again

Crude oil has risen roughly 50 percent since February 28. That’s not a typo.

Brent was trading around $70 a barrel before the strikes. It touched $119 overnight. (it has since come down)

WTI has moved from $67 to over $115.

Iraq, the second-largest OPEC producer, has seen output from its three main southern oilfields collapse by 70 percent, from 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million, because there’s nowhere to put the oil.

Kuwait has cut production preemptively. The UAE is “carefully managing offshore production levels.”

Everyone in the Gulf is producing less because the tankers can’t get out.

Meanwhile, Israel struck a major fuel storage facility near Tehran over the weekend.

Saudi Arabia’s 550,000-barrel-per-day Ras Tanura refinery has been hit twice. Drones even targeted Saudi Aramco’s million-barrel-per-day Shaybah oil field.

We are watching the physical destruction of energy infrastructure in real time, which means this isn’t just a shipping problem. Even when the Strait reopens, some of this supply isn’t coming back quickly.

Did Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu consider these realities before striking Iran? Or was their hubris so great, they didn’t consider the possibility that Iran wouldn’t fall immediately?

Did Trump consider he would end up having to ease Russian oil sanctions in an attempt to try to keep global oil prices down?

**Trump eases Russian oil sanctions as Iran war sends prices spiking

The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil, a boost to the Kremlin as Washington tries to contain energy prices sent soaring by the American-Israeli assault on Iran.

The announcement failed to immediately calm oil prices, which have spiraled since Tehran effectively closed the vital Strait of Hormuz oil chokepoint and began attacking energy facilities across neighboring Gulf countries.

The international benchmark of Brent crude rose again overnight, sitting just above $100 a barrel as of 6 a.m. ET. Markets worldwide slipped, with U.S. stock futures down following slumps across Asia and Europe.

Announcing the move Thursday evening, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that until April 11 countries would be able to buy Russian oil that was already at sea.

That moves seems really at odds with the US sanctions regime.

**Europe Negotiating With Iran For Oil Access Through Strait—As U.S. Still Blocked—Report Says

Specifically France and Italy.

France and Italy have reportedly opened talks with Iranian officials in hopes of negotiating a deal to allow their vessels through the Strait of Hormuz after a weekslong standstill in the shipping lane has wrecked havoc on global energy markets.

**Drone attacks strike Italian and French military bases in Iraq amid Iran’s regional retaliation

Italy and France have maintained occupying forces in the Kurdish territory of Iraq for decades now

In a surge of violence linked to Iran’s broader retaliation against U.S. and Israeli strikes, drone attacks targeted military bases hosting Italian and French forces in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region on Thursday.

While the strike on the Italian base at Camp Singara in Erbil caused only material damage with no casualties, a subsequent attack in the nearby Makhmour area wounded six French soldiers and killed one officer, escalating concerns over the safety of international coalitions in the region.

The Italian incident occurred overnight on 11-12 March, when a drone struck Camp Singara, a facility near Erbil International Airport that hosts 141 Italian soldiers as part of Operation Prima Parthica. This mission, integrated with the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition and NATO’s Iraq operations, focuses on training, assisting, and supporting Kurdish Peshmerga and Iraqi forces, alongside logistics and protection duties

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto confirmed via X no victims or injuries among military personnel, though the attack caused material damage, including the destruction of a logistics vehicle.

***U.S. to send 2,500 Marines to Middle East as Iran, Israel continue to exchange attacks

Meanwhile, a U.S. official told The Associated Press that roughly 2,500 Marines and at least one amphibious assault ship were headed for the Middle East in a major addition of troops.

The US military has seen more casualties..

Did Trump and Bibi even consider any alternative scenarios, costs, damage to the global economy and worse before launching this attack? The fact they have made the offer to Russia to ease up on sanctioned oil, suggests, they didn’t consider all possibilities.

Thoughts, please?

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2020/11/nagorno-karabakh-russia-turkey-have.html?zx=91cd0ee4eb7f3434

Friday, November 13, 2020

Nagorno Karabakh: “Russia , Turkey Have Common Objectives in Karabakh” as MOU signed

Oddly enough I was the only independent thinking, alternative blogger that saw this cooperation as a possibility.

Back nearly 3 weeks ago.

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2020/10/3rd-ceasefire-faltering-in-nagarno.html?zx=698cd6aa2746c14f

“-Possible Outcomes?

1- Western Imperial Powers will Recognize “Artsakh” Talked about this here previously. This move will certainly set the region alight!

2– Turkey and Russia will send peace keepers in. The issue of territory will be settled once and for all. The same type of cooperation as we see in Syria. Iran may participate as well.

An Astana 2.0 if you like?”

   Too much irrationality. Too much bias, dare I say racism? Hatred? Not sure. On the part of alleged objective, independent thinkers. That’s how it appears. 

 Speaking for myself. I’m preferring diplomacy to blood letting. Turkey and Russia cooperating keeps NATO off kilter on one hand, while balancing international/global affairs on the other.

• Memorandum of Understanding Signed- Similar views and intent to continue cooperating.

Russia and Turkey have a common objective in the Upper Karabakh region to monitor the peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia that ended weeks of armed conflict, Russia’s foreign minister said on Thursday.

“We agreed with our Turkish partners to establish an observation center on the territory of Azerbaijan, which will not be located near the conflict zone,” Sergey Lavrov told a news conference.

Responding to a question by an Anadolu Agency reporter on Turkey’s efforts for ending the conflict through diplomacy, he noted that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin have held several phone calls and share similar views on the issue.

He said Moscow will continue cooperating with Ankara in other areas, including Syria, adding that they were interested in solving problems at their borders and across the world.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said earlier on Thursday that Ankara will play an equally important role as Moscow in monitoring the peace deal through the peacekeeping center in Upper Karabakh.

A memorandum of understanding (MoU) setting up a joint Turkish-Russian center to monitor the peace deal was signed on Wednesday morning.

As some Armenians vacate the occupied territories they are burning homes, schools etc.

Macron and Pashinian talk

“French President Macron says ready to assist in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement
The presidential press office reported in a statement early on Friday that President Macron held a telephone conversation with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan

Macron’s ready to assist now? Where was he before? Making trouble that's where he was.

 I trust Macron the least of nearly every political leader. Save for Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland. Macron is more meglomaniacal and duplicitous then Erdogan could ever aspire to be. Through my media based observations I find Erdogan, like Putin,  more diplomacy oriented. The are both very pragmatic leaders.
Macron has enjoyed an incredible free pass from the main stream and alternative media! He doesn’t deserve that level of obfuscation delivered on his behalf. The role of a Macron led France in the destruction of Syria, gets a free pass, though France shares no border with Syria. Unlike Turkey, which does mean they do have legitimate border/territorial security concerns. France does not.  Then there was the whole sale destruction of Libya, brought on by a Sarkozy led France (Turkey was not involved)  What’s with that so called anti empire media? Why the free pass for France? Speaking of Libya the love affair the alt media has with Haftar is incredible.  Incredibly disturbing that is.

For those who may not know- The 5 Eyes

Fox News

France and the United Kingdom have said they would step in to fill the gaps where U.S. intelligence has ceased, but the U.K. said it would not share data that originated with the U.S. but is shared through the Five Eyes alliance.

While it is claimed the US has ceased providing intelligence to Ukraine, the UK is providing intelligence that is shared through the 5 Eyes. Which means, quite obviously, as the US is a Five Eyes ally,that Britain can and is sharing US intelligence with Ukraine.

Obfuscation!

U.S. contractors reap the windfalls of post-war reconstruction

More than 70 American companies and individuals – donors to the presidential campaigns of George W. Bush – have won up to $8 billion in contracts for work in postwar Iraq and Afghanistan over the last two years.

Those companies donated more money to the presidential campaigns of George W. Bush—a little over $500,000—than to any other politician over the last dozen years, the Center found.

Kellogg, Brown & Root, the subsidiary of Halliburton—which Vice President Dick Cheney led prior to being chosen as Bush’s running mate in August 2000—was the top recipient of federal contracts for the two countries, with more than $2.3 billion awarded to the company. Bechtel Group, a major government contractor with similarly high-ranking ties, was second at around $1.03 billion.

However, dozens of lower-profile, but well-connected, companies shared in the reconstruction bounty.

From the limited descriptions of the “fund” being set up by the US/Ukraine for the mineral deal profits. I’m getting a sense of the same type of profiteering opportunities being created as Ukraine’s future looks to be that of a failed state, similar to Iraq, still to this day.

Ukraine– link

President Donald Trump last week engaged in verbal diatribes against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy while pursuing peace talks with Russia

But some of Trump’s aides, including Keith Kellogg, the special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, and Rubio, have been more critical of Russia, even if cautiously or in private.

Aid to Ukraine exempted from freeze;

Plans for the exemptions date to at least late January, days after the Trump administration imposed the broad foreign aid freeze, according to the document. The exemptions proposed in it covered programs ranging from general economic support to landmine removal to narcotics control and health programs.

The exact chain of command involved was unclear. The State Department official said the process is bypassing the department’s foreign assistance office. That unit is led by Pete Marocco, a Trump ally and skeptic of foreign aid who has taken a lead role in dismantling USAID. But the document said the foreign assistance office would be consulted.

US Security Cooperation with Ukraine- State.gov

January 20, 2025

The United States reaffirms its unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, extending to its territorial waters.

Ukraine is a key regional strategic partner that has undertaken significant efforts to modernize its military and increase its interoperability with NATO. It remains an urgent security assistance priority to provide Ukraine the equipment it needs to defend itself against Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Seems doubtful anything has changed in 1 months time

Bloomberg-France expects US to Provide Back-up after Ceasefire

https://archive.ph/65kOV

French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said he expects the US to provide backup for European troops to help maintain peace once a ceasefire is agreed between Ukraine and Russia.
The UK, Germany, France and other European countries are willing to send troops to guarantee a truce, he told Bloomberg Television in an interview in Cape Town, where he’s attending a meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs.

I believe the American’s have agreed to security back up- The minerals deal virtually guarantees this. This explains the Whitehouse visits of both Macron and Keir Starmer

Russia understands this reality

Russia accuses UK and France of ‘heating up’ Ukraine war amid defence push

The UK and France are “heating up the conflict” in Ukraine rather than seeking peace, Russia has suggested as Sir Keir Starmer travels to the US for crunch talks with Donald Trump.

Speaking during a visit to Qatar, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov claimed European nations, including the UK, were now seeking to prolong the war in Ukraine.

“The approach that is being imposed by the Europeans, first of all France and the British, is aimed… at heating up the conflict further and stopping any attempts to calm it down,” he said, according to a translation from Russia’s state news agency, Tass.

French President Emmanuel Macron pushed for security guarantees to enforce peace in Ukraine as he preceded Sir Keir in meeting US President Mr Trump this week.

Finally, Financial Times via archive.ph

Kyiv has agreed terms with Washington on a minerals deal that Ukrainian officials hope will improve relations with the Trump administration and pave the way for a long-term US security commitment.

“The minerals agreement is only part of the picture. We have heard multiple times from the US administration that it’s part of a bigger picture,” Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister and justice minister who has led the negotiations, told the Financial Times on Tuesday.

The final version of the agreement, dated February 25 and seen by the FT, would establish a fund into which Ukraine would contribute 50 per cent of proceeds from the “future monetisation” of state-owned mineral resources, including oil and gas, and associated logistics. The fund would also be able to invest in projects in Ukraine.

What companies would be awarded the projects? This is why I referenced the Iraqi reconstruction fiasco. Of course, we won’t know for years how this fund is used.. but shades of Iraq.

Ukraine has large underground deposits of critical minerals, including lithium, graphite, cobalt, titanium and rare earths such as scandium, that are essential for an array of industries from defence to electric vehicles.

The agreement excludes mineral resources that already contribute to Ukrainian government coffers, meaning it would not cover the existing activities of Naftogaz or Ukrnafta, Ukraine’s largest gas and oil producers.

A Ukrainian official with knowledge of the matter said president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was planning to travel to Washington on Friday to see Donald Trump and formalise the deal.

On Tuesday, the US president appeared to confirm his Ukrainian counterpart’s visit, saying: “I hear that [Zelenskyy is] coming on Friday. Certainly it’s OK with me if he’d like to.”

Rather longish report, yes, but, the situation with Ukraine, EU, Russia looks to be evolving quite quickly. Still waiting on Zelensky’s departure.

Europe Still Clings to Russia Gas With Record LNG Flow This Year

Bloomberg) — The European Union boosted imports of Russian liquefied natural gas against the backdrop of deepening tensions over pipeline supplies that flow through Ukraine.

The bloc purchased a record amount of Russian LNG this year, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Among top buyers, France has already hit its highest-ever volumes and Spain is closing in on records seen last year.

The numbers show that Europe is still hooked on energy from Russia, which remains one of the continent’s top gas providers despite severe cuts in supplies in 2022. While officials in the EU and Kyiv have called for a halt in purchases, there’s still no region-wide ban on the fuel and it remains a cheaper option for many buyers.

Countries such as the UK, Germany and the Baltic states have stopped taking Russian gas altogether.

Molecules mix and Russian gas becomes French or Belgium gas! See how that works?

Ukraine Blames Russia for Cyberattack on Critically Important Infrastructure

Ukraine blames Russia for mega cyberattack on ‘critically important’ infrastructure

“The enemy is trying to use this situation in its information operations to sow panic among citizens of Ukraine and abroad,” says Kyiv’s deputy PM.

Ukraine Friday blamed Russia for a major cyberattack on crucial government databases.

Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna wrote on Facebook earlier on Friday that the “largest external cyberattack on [the] state registers of Ukraine in recent times” had taken place.

“It is already clear that the attack was carried out by the Russians with the aim of disrupting the work of the critically important infrastructure of the state,” Stefanishyna said.

The cyberattack took place while Russian forces hit Kyiv with a huge ballistic missile attack, as Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s grinding multiyear assault on Ukraine shows no signs of letting up.

The group claiming to be responsible for the attack said in a post on the Telegram channel “XakNet Team” that it had also targeted backup servers in Poland. POLITICO has not been able to verify that claim.

“The enemy is trying to use this situation in its information operations to sow panic among citizens of Ukraine and abroad,” Stefanishyna wrote about the cyber warfare. 

As a result of the attack, the Unified and State Registers were temporarily suspended, Stefanishyna said. State registries are government records of information like people’s civil status and property rights. 

The attack has not affected the functioning of other services, she said. Russia has hit Ukraine with constant cyberattacks during the war, including on energy infrastructure. 

Ukrainian specialists are working to restore access to the databases, prioritizing registers for citizens’ civil status, legal entities and real estate rights, Stefanishyna said. That should take about two weeks, she said. 

Considering he’s ended Ukrainian elections, has enacted martial law as well as forced military conscription in Ukraine… The freedom bringer Zelensky a light in the darkness– or something along those lines

The President Salome Zourabichvili is a French citizen, born in Paris.

A citizen of France for most of her life, a career French diplomat who became a Georgian citizen and started her own political party-

Of course she is leading the charge of election fraud. Of course. She is providing all the “right” talking points to western media- Of course.

We’ve been informed of the allowable parameters of discussion via her spoon fed to the media talking points, all of them sounding as if they’ve come right out of US state department via Brussels. I’m trying to find something readable! Thank goodness for the piece below from Responsible Statecraft!

An unfortunate rush to judgment in Georgia elections

The Western media is indulging the preassembled narrative: that the only way the government could win was by rigging

That’s sooo obvious!

One did not have to be an Elijah or an Amos to predict the aftermath of the Georgian elections, but all the same, the Quincy Institute and Responsible Statecraft can claim a modest prize for prophecy. The domestic and international background to the elections and the ensuing crisis are analyzed in a QI policy brief published earlier this month; and as I wrote for RS back in July:

“Parliamentary elections are due in Georgia on October 26, and the universal opinion among Georgians with whom I have spoken is that if the government wins, the opposition, backed by pro-Western NGOs, will allege that the results were falsified, and will launch a mass protest movement in an effort to topple the Georgian Dream government. Judging by recent statements, most Western establishments will automatically take the side of the opposition. This narrative is already well underway, with lines like ‘Government vs. the People in Georgia’ and ‘a crisis that has pitted the government against its people.’ This suggests that Georgia is a dictatorship in which ‘the people’ have no say except through street protests.”

Good foresight back in July!

This is exactly what has happened. According to the results issued by the National Election Commission, the governing Georgian Dream Party won 53 percent of the vote to 38 percent for the different opposition parties. The opposition, however, immediately alleged fraud, and declared that its MPs would boycott the new parliament, thereby depriving it of a quorum.

The pro-opposition President, Salome Zourabichvili, stated that Georgians were “victims of what can only be described as a Russian special operation – a new form of hybrid warfare waged against our people and our country.” However, when asked by Western journalists to substantiate this, she could only say that the government had used “Russian methodology.”

Her people? Her country? Is she talking about that absurd French election? Remember those? Yah, Macron is still there! Can you hear the crickets?

She mixed accusations of electoral falsification with an appeal for “the firm support of our European and American partners to the part of Georgia that is European, that is the Georgian population.” This is a quite different argument. It implies that whatever the results of the elections, the only real “Georgian population” is the part that identifies with the West. Only their voice is truly legitimate, and a government that does not unconditionally follow the “European Path” is inherently illegitimate, elections or no elections.

Much of the Western media immediately responded with headlines like “Georgians join mass rally” and “Georgians protest contested election results,” suggesting (without directly asserting) that this is indeed a case of “the people” against a government, as if the government has no real support at all – despite the fact that even if the government’s election victory is contested, there can be no doubt at all that a very large proportion of the Georgian population voted for them.

The Biden administration and other Western governments and institutions have not even waited for detailed reports from their own observers to call the election results into question. Moreover, it must be stated with regret that many of these observers can hardly be called objective.

Please do read the rest of the responsible statecraft piece at the link provided

In the print version of this Globe and Mail oped– there is a sub headline that makes clear this is about choosing between Russia and NATO. I get the print version at home

Relevant paragraphs;

If Paris was to strike a deal for the release of Mr. Durov in exchange for information, it could gain access to valuable insights into Russian war efforts or plans, to share with other NATO allies. If the CEO was to negotiate such a deal with France, a member of NATO, another significant risk for Russia could be a leak of the many hacking groups that have exploited the platform to commit data breaches and identity theft, or to spread propaganda. These groups have been reported to have ties to the Kremlin.

In contrast, if the Kremlin was somehow able to work out an agreement with him, whether this be for a transfer of control of Telegram or change in its policies to protect stored information, it might have important consequences for Ukrainians and the freedom of communication.

The Durov investigation could result in changes to Telegram policies that have the potential to directly affect data privacy, who controls the app, and how war-related content spreads. The fate of Telegram now largely rests in the hands of the French courts and government – a country that happens to be on Russia’s red list of unfriendly nations.

NATO is clearly after what ever information they can gather up on Telegram. They are looking for access, so far they’ve been unable to get on their own-

Observation: Elon is quite quiet on this freedom of speech infringement. Choosing instead to participate in, what’s looking more and more like, putting the thumb screws to Brazil. What else to expect from an individual who has profited exorbitantly from the NATO military industrial complex

• Complicity in the administration of an online platform to enable illicit transactions by an organised gang
• Refusal to communicate with authorities
• Complicity in organised criminal distribution of sexual images of children

From earlier today...

Israel’s attempt to censor the internet? And/or punish the less then compliant? I don’t know but it’s certainly possible.

The news of the Israeli hack broke last week, at the time it was presented as an Iranian hack. It could be? What could tie it to Pavel Durev is that the hacked information was leaked via Telgram as well as other places. But Telegram is specifically cited as being the least cooperative.

Notice the original url? Israel’s futile war against Iranian hack of secret data

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/security-aviation/2024-08-21/ty-article-magazine/.premium/israels-futile-war-against-massive-iranian-hack-of-secret-data/00000191-6bd7-d1ee-afb5-6bff8a510000

Was Durev’s arrest tied to Israel’s war against the hack/hackers and those that provided a platform for the information to be dispersed?

Here’s the report via Archive.ph– The story is still paywalled at Haaretz

A few months ago, foreign hackers managed to break into a computer linked to Israel’s Justice Ministry. Tens of thousands of classified files and sensitive emails were leaked. Links allowing anyone to download the breached files were published on Telegram, the popular instant messaging app.

However, they soon began to disappear. One by one, the hacker’s Telegram channels were taken down, their users deleted and posts that shared the download links gone.

Many of the hackers present themselves as pro-Palestinian forces, but are often fronts for Iran’s semi-official cyber-intelligence hackers. Usually, their goals are to collect information, attack infrastructure and disrupt different services. However, they are also interested in what is termed “perception hacking” and psychological warfare, in this case intended to embarrass Israel, the so-called cyber nation.

Sources say the true extent of the damage to Israel’s security and economy caused by these leaks is not yet fully known, not even to those in charge of dealing with the issue in Israel. They say that despite massive investment in defensive cybersecurity measures, the scale of the leaks is likely the most severe in Israel’s history – “an unprecedented looting of gigabytes upon gigabytes of information of all sorts.”

Local cyber security experts explain that many times, the surfacing of hacked materials is just the public crescendo of a clandestine hack that began some time ago.

After their intelligence value is maxed out, or their operation is caught, the hackers shift gears and begin very loudly trying to publicize the stolen digital goods. Their goal: cause financial and reputational damages to Israel and Israeli firms, especially those who work with the military or state.

In other words, after the hacks come the leaks. Accordingly, once hacked, Israel works to prevent the leak and try to minimize its spread, and thus try to mitigate the long term damage caused by its online existence.

According to a number of people knowledgeable on the matter, Israel is waging a digital war on a number of fronts to try to stem the seemingly endless leak of its information. These efforts include monitoring the web and social media sites for leaks and using legal take-down requests to tech firms like Google, Amazon, Meta and even Telegram, to have them removed or blocked.

and even Telegram

In some cases, the policy proves quite successful. Websites hosted by Western firms have been taken down for providing a home for digital loot flagged by Israeli authorities. Recently, a number of accounts were taken down by Telegram after posting links to hacked materials, including the hackers’ own official channels, but also that of a well-known leaks website that frequently works with journalists and has recently started hosting leaked Israeli data.

The next few paragraphs including the heading…..

Finding Pavel

“From October 7 and continuously since then, up till this very day, we’ve seen a concerted effort of cyber-attacks, some directly linked or attributed to enemy states and terrorist organizations, to conduct ‘perception attacks’ in the form of publishing leaks,” says Haim Wismonsky, the director of the cyber unit in the Israeli State Prosecutor’s Office, which is part of the Justice Ministry and is the body charged with filing the actual requests to tech firms.

“The publication of these leaks is intended to cause a scare, inspire a public panic and create the sense that we are exposed and penetrable, but they are also aimed at causing economic damage if not actually endangering the lives of those people whose personal details are included in their leaks,” Wismonsky explained to Haaretz.

The policy and the way it is deployed makes Israel unique. Many countries, including the U.S., usually take criminal or legal steps against leakers, foreign and local, but will make peace with the leak’s existence online. Israel, on the other hand, uses tech firm’s internal rules to get them to take down the hacked goods on its behalf – and thus prevent the leaked data from reaching the public or journalists, both in Israel and abroad.

Platforms, even those considered hostile to government requests like Telegram, have rules in place intended to defend them against the legal ramifications of their users’ conduct. These can include anything from take down requests due to copyright infringement, or legal claims of libel.

Hacked materials fall under a broad category of stolen goods, so the same policies in place to prevent the spread of files for illegally downloading movies or television series can also be used to take down hacked materials stolen from Israeli servers without consent.

In recent months, for example, Israeli requests flagging violations of Telegram’s terms of use have led to at least 10 takedowns of hacker groups’ users and channels. Many times, it’s the same hacker group who, undeterred, have opened a new channel and posted new links to the same leak.

Telegram has proved a massive challenge for Israel since the start of the war. While many tech firms have streamlined mechanisms through which states can reach out to them, Telegram is considered the least cooperative of them all.

Telegram emerged at the start of the war as a key platform utilized by Hamas’ information warfare against Israel, one Israel was unable to properly address, lacking both monitoring capabilities and an understanding of the platform.

Concerned by the wave of pro-Hamas content, which included videos from the actual attack as well as a constant stream of propaganda materials, Israelis in the high-tech industry tried late in 2023 to reach Telegram’s founder, Pavel Durov.

Though they successfully contacted Durov, who lives in the UAE, he was unreceptive to these private requests to improve moderation on the platform. Though a few pages linked directly to Hamas’ military wing were locally blocked at a later stage, the private initiative failed to gain any real traction with the app’s founder.

Sources explain that Google or Meta will take down a page if it is shown to be directly linked to Hamas and Amazon will remove a website for hosting terrorist materials. On Telegram, content cannot be taken down with such arguments. Only clearly stolen goods will be taken down, making content claims the only effective route for Israel’s legal authorities.

The data speaks for itself: According to official numbers provided by Israel, the Justice Ministry has sent Facebook over 40,000 successful requests to remove “illegal content.“ These are not pro-or-anti-Israel posts, but rather content that is illegal by Western standards. Even TikTok has taken down over 20,000 posts flagged by Israel. On Telegram, that number is just over 1,300.

Being less then cooperative with Israel’s demands to censor the internet might just get you arrested?

Excerpts included- read entirely at the link

INTELLINEWS

Founder of Telegram encrypted messenger exiled Russian internet guru Pavel Durov was arrested as he got off his private jet in France, TF1 and Le Monde reported on August 25.

Durov holds a dual French citizenship since 2021 was reportedly arrested in the airport of Le Bourget outside Paris, accompanied by his bodyguard and assistant, as they were making a stopover on the way from Azerbaijan on the way back to his home in St Petersburg.

Exiled but still has a home in St Petersburg?

A search warrant was issued against him by French investigators for various offences involving his encrypted messaging service, sources close to the case told Le Monde.

The sources also expressed surprise that Durov would travel and disembark in France knowing that he was wanted in the country. France does not extradite its citizens and if convicted of the charges he will remain in a French jail.

Did he want to be arrested? If this reporting is accurate and he knew there was an arrest warrant issued for him in France, why stop there?

Reportedly, the search warrant has been under an investigation involving various services, for Telegram not doing enough to prevent offences ranging from fraud, drug trafficking, cyber-bullying and organised crime to apology for terrorism and fraud, according to the sources of Le Monde. “Enough of Telegram's impunity”, one of the unnamed investigators told the daily.

Link

Is Telegram the primary means of Russian army communication? I’d think they would have their own structure.

Durov famously puts almost no restrictions on the content shared on his service. In its terms of service Telegram forbids the sharing of illegal content in public groups, but implicitly suggests that content can be shared in private groups. As a result the service, which offers reportedly uncrackable end-to-end encryption, has been popular with various criminal groups as a secure means to conduct illicit business.
Most recent reports suggested that Telegram was looking for solutions to comply with European regulation. Belgian Institute for Postal Services and Telecommunications (BIPT) was reportedly set to become the supervisory body responsible for Telegram messenger’s operations across Europe. BIPT criticised Telegram for failing to comply with the supervision requirements of a Very Large Online Platform (VLOP).

In the meantime, in Russia, this week Telegram has been disrupted in Russia in a possible targeted blocking attempt, and independent media warned that Telegram could be falling out of favour with the Kremlin now.

Durov, whose fortune is estimated by Forbes at $15.5bn, himself was rumoured to have sought a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Putin was in Azerbaijan recently.

He was reportedly trying to meet the Russian president to prevent Telegram from being blocked in Russia. Publicly, the Kremlin press service said that Putin refused the meeting, but the Kremlin is increasingly interested in promoting its control over the internet and has allied with various companies, led by VK, the Russian equivalent of Facebook, which is run by Vladimir Kiriyenko, the son of former Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and current deputy head of the presidential administration.

As followed by bne IntelliNews, Durov has recently revived his media efforts and gave a number of interviews. In the latest interview with right-wing American journalist Tucker Carlson he again denied the links between Telegram and Kremlin and reminded that he had to flee to Dubai for refusing to disclose data on his users to Russian security services

But there are a growing number of questions over Durov autonomy from the Kremlin. Wired reported that the FSB has arrested citizens for making defamatory remarks about Russia’s so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine, after reading their private messages on Telegram – messages the FSB theoretically have no access to.

Durov successfully defied the FSB in 2018, which ordered him to hand over the electronic keys that allow access to read the uncrackable encoded messages.

However, in 2020 Telegram made a surprise comeback on the Russian business scene, as the messenger app has been unblocked in Russia after a two-year stand-off with the security services and legislators.

Investigations into the funding of Telegram, which has over 700mn subscribers, but never made a profit, revealed that amongst the investors are David Yakobashvili, the founder of juice-maker Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods, and oil oligarch Roman Abramovich, who is also close to Putin.

Notably, the state sovereign Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and the state owned VTB bank have also both invested over $1bn into the bonds issued by the messenger, which raised concerns over Durov’s willingness to cooperate with the Kremlin.

Durov is due to appear in a French court on August 26 for his arraignment.

Make of it what you will. It’s interesting because it coincides with the democracies cracking down on discourse on the internet- Think of Canada’s Bill C-63

Macron isn’t foolish. My suspicion is he called this election to solidify his leadership in France. We shall see?

Marine LePen had not won enough votes to garner a majority & maneuvering is taking place!!

French election

Opponents of France’s National Rally (RN) stepped up their bid to block the far-right party from power as more candidates said they would bow out of this weekend’s run-off election to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote.

Some 180-plus candidates have confirmed they will not stand in Sunday’s second-round for France’s 577-seat national parliament, according to local media estimates.

Marine Le Pen’s RN came out well ahead in last Sunday’s first-round vote after President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble on a snap election backfired, leaving his centrist camp in a lowly third place behind a hastily formed left-wing alliance.

But even before the manoeuvring of the last 24 hours to create a “republican front” to block the anti-immigrant, eurosceptic party, it was far from clear the RN could win the 289 seats needed for a majority.

Pollsters calculated the first round put the RN on track for anything between 250-300 seats. But that was before the tactical withdrawals and cross-party calls for voters to back whichever candidate was best placed to defeat the local RN rival.

“The match is not over,” the Socialist mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, told France 2. “We must mobilise all our forces.”

Financial markets gained yesterday on relief that the far right had not performed better, but the reaction has been muted by the fact that a hung parliament would also risk policy paralysis for the rest of Mr Macron’s presidency till 2027.

There was initial confusion over whether Mr Macron’s allies would stand down in local contests in favour of better-placed rival candidates if they came from the radical left-wing France Unbowed (LFI) party of Jean-Luc Melenchon.

However Mr Macron yesterday told a closed-door meeting of ministers at the Elysee Palace that the top priority was blocking the RN from power and that LFI candidates could be endorsed if necessary.

The “republican front” has worked before – such as in 2002 when voters of all stripes overwhelmingly backed Jacques Chirac to defeat Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie, in a presidential contest.

However, it is not certain voters these days are willing to follow guidance from political leaders on where to place their vote, while Ms Le Pen’s efforts to soften the image of her party has made it less of a pariah for millions.

She repeated her assertion that the RN would not try to form a government if it and its allies did not have a workable majority in parliament.

“We cannot agree to form a government if we cannot act. That would be the worst of betrayals of our voters,” she told France Inter radio.

Ms Le Pen has urged voters to give the RN an absolute majority, which would see Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old RN chief with no governing experience, become prime minister.

However, in a foretaste of the sour mood that would prevail in the event of a power-sharing “cohabitation” between Mr Macron and an RN-led government, Ms Le Pen referred to media speculation that he was planning to make key public sector appointments aimed at preventing the RN from implementing its policies.

While not saying she had any evidence that was the case, Ms Le Pen said any such move would amount to an “administrative coup”.

Analysts say the most likely outcome of the snap election is a hung parliament that could lead to months of political paralysis and chaos.

The election results fuelled fresh criticism of Mr Macron’s decision to call the vote in the first place, a move he took with only a tight circle of advisors.

The chaos also risks damaging the international credibility of Mr Macron, who is set to attend a NATO summit in the US immediately after the vote.

Let’s make a deal