The Iran war and Hormuz disruption have turbocharged U.S. LNG exports, giving Washington a major short-term energy dominance boost as Asia and Europe scramble for alternative supply.
China, however, enters the crisis from a position of greater energy resilience after years of investment in domestic production.
The U.S. still has a major long-term opportunity, but sustaining dominance will require turning crisis-driven demand into lasting partnerships

*Oil Prices fall on hope for US Iran Ceasefire

We wonder why it is we are unhealthy? Our fertilizer is derived from gas (Thinking about Gary, here)

The war in Iran has done more than disrupt global hydrocarbon markets—it has quietly set off a crisis in the fertilizers derived from natural gas that feed the world.

The virtual standstill in marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also taken 50 percent of the world’s traded sulfur and 36 percent of the world’s traded urea off the market, all essential components of fertilizers that sustain global food production. The result is a cascading supply crisis—spanning natural gas, ammonia, urea, sulfur, and phosphates—that threatens food security worldwide and that the United States has a limited but real window to address.

*Gold recovers, for now

*Ukraine attacks– Zaporizhzhia Power Plant

They said they didn’t but they did. It’s always been them attacking the plant

IAEA issues Ukraine nuclear plant warning after Russia alleges Zaporizhzhia attack

“The IAEA has been informed by the ZNPP that a drone today struck a turbine building at the site, reportedly causing a hole in its wall,” the agency said in its statement.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, the statement added, “expresses serious concern about the reported incident which would endanger both the seven indispensable pillars for ensuring nuclear safety during the conflict as well as the five concrete principles to protect the ZNPP, which clearly state that ‘there should be no attack of any kind from or against’ the plant.”

*Ukraine strikes Russia

Ukrainian drones struck targets across several Russian regions overnight, including an oil pipeline pumping station, a refinery and a fuel depot, Russian and Ukrainian authorities said on Sunday, in an escalating campaign of strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s General Staff said it had struck the Saratov oil refinery on the Volga river, causing a large fire. Saratov regional governor Roman Busargin said on Telegram that “civil infrastructure” had been damaged in the strike, but gave no more details.

Here are some takeaways from Trump’s trip to China, the first by a U.S. president since 2017.

NO BREAKTHROUGH ON IRAN

Trump downplayed the need for China’s help with Iran ahead of the trip, even as his aides said Beijing – a major buyer of Iranian oil – could play an influential role in brokering a path to ending a conflict that has created the biggest crisis of Trump’s presidency.

The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has crowded out other policy priorities, raised energy costs and weighed on Republican prospects ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Trump ended his trip without any obvious sign of securing China's help

Trump suggested he could ease sanctions on Chinese refineries that do business with Iran, (Iran was not interested) potentially rolling back one of the few concrete steps the U.S. has taken to punish China for its support of Iran.

“We feel very similar,” Trump said on Friday as he met with Xi in a secretive Chinese Communist Party compound in central Beijing. “We want that to end. We don’t want them to have a nuclear weapon. We want the straits open.”

Xi said nothing. About the same time, the country’s foreign ministry issued a statement that sounded a different note: “This conflict, which should never have happened, has no reason to continue,” the ministry wrote, adding that it wants to help the parties find peace.

MORE PAGEANTRY THAN POLICY

Trump touted deals with Xi on Chinese purchases of farm goods, beef and Boeing aircraft, but the details were thin.

He departed Beijing without extending a trade truce due to expire later this year. Markets were disappointed that a deal reported by Trump for China to buy 200 Boeing jets wasn’t bigger, and traders said U.S. soybean futures fell to their lowest level in more than two weeks on Friday after the summit failed to produce specific deals for American farm goods.

On major issues from expanding trade to artificial intelligence and Taiwan, the leaders appeared to have made little progress beyond agreeing to disagree and, perhaps, to keep talking.

The two countries agreed to set up separate boards to govern bilateral trade and investment, but Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said officials from both sides were still working out details.

Unlike in 2017, the leaders made no joint public statement to the media. They didn’t release mutually agreed summaries of their meetings, nor a fact sheet detailing what came out of the talks. China’s public statements made little specific reference to purchase agreements or other commitments by Xi to the U.S.

A person familiar with the planning for the trip said there was little pressure within the White House to secure a big new deal.

The pageantry outshone the policy. Xi treated Trump to goose-stepping soldiers and succulent preparations of Beijing beef but sent him home with little of substance to show for his journey.

STRATEGIC SILENCE ON TAIWAN

When Trump emerged from his first round of talks with Xi on Thursday, reporters wanted to know one thing. What did they discuss on Taiwan?
Standing at the ancient Chinese Temple of Heaven alongside Xi, a president known for his loquaciousness opted for an almost spiritual silence. Trump said nothing.

By that point, China had already released an extended summary of Xi’s own comments on Taiwan in the private meeting with Trump. The Chinese leader warned that mishandling the countries’ disagreements over Taiwan, the democratically governed island claimed by Beijing, could push China-U.S. relations to a “dangerous place.”

For much of the trip, Trump appeared inclined to maintain the United States’ traditional “strategic ambiguity” on the topic.

As he headed back to Washington on Friday, he finally offered a bit more. In Trump’s telling, Xi wanted more information about where Trump stands on Taiwan, in particular if he would defend the island.

“I said I don’t talk about that,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.

Trump also did not commit to selling more arms to Taiwan, telling reporters he would decide later.

DISCIPLINED TRUMP

Trump often deviates from his prepared remarks to spin yarns, give advice, drop insults or tell jokes.

In Beijing, the Republican president stayed on script, including during a prewritten toast he delivered to Xi at a state dinner on Thursday.

A White House official said Trump was eager to pull off a summit that improved ties, and Chinese Communist Party officials are not well known for appreciating surprises during their highly choreographed events.

For his part, Xi paired gestures of friendship with pointed warnings, underscoring both cooperation between the two countries and their sometimes frosty ties.

“We must make it work and never mess it up,” he said of the China-U.S. relationship.

HEADWINDS BACK HOME

Trump arrives back in the U.S. facing the same political quagmire that dogged him before the trip.

Gas prices, high. Inflation, high. Voter anger, high.

The U.S. president badly needed a win as his administration struggles to contain the political and economic fallout from the war with Iran. The highly anticipated visit may have offered a short-term distraction, but it likely will do little to shift the narrative.

Trump is saying he’s still heading for China in about 10 days time- We’ll see?

Australianews.net

Beijing [China], May 3 (ANI): The Chinese government has issued a formal injunction to block US sanctions directed at five domestic refiners, including the Hengli Petrochemical Refinery, accused by Washington of purchasing Iranian oil.

China Daily, a state-affiliated English-language outlet, defended Beijing’s decision by describing the move as a ‘defensive and justified response’ to what the government characterises as a clear violation of international law.

In an analysis for the outlet, writer Li Yang argued that the sanctions imposed by Washington lack the necessary authorisation from the United Nations. Consequently, Li asserted that such measures ‘violate international law and the basic norms of international relations.’

He further contended that the US ‘is not merely targeting specific companies‘ but is actively attempting to assert ‘jurisdiction over third-party trade between sovereign actors.’

Connecting this to broader geopolitical strategies, Li noted that the US has historically utilised the global dominance of the dollar to expand the reach of its domestic policies. He observed that ‘secondary sanctions penalising entities that transact with blacklisted parties have become a staple of US statecraft.’

According to the report, China’s judicial and administrative response serves to establish a firm boundary against external interference. Li concluded that the injunction sends a definitive message that ‘Chinese entities are not to comply with illegal US sanctions.’

In a sharp escalation of trade hostilities, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOC) on Saturday formalised this stance by issuing a blocking measure prohibiting domestic entities from complying with the US restrictions, Xinhua reported.

This marks the first time Beijing has officially invoked its ‘blocking statute,’ a legal mechanism designed to neutralise the extraterritorial reach of foreign laws, signaling a shift from diplomatic protests to active legal countermeasures.

signaling a shift from diplomatic protests to active legal countermeasures.

According to Xinhua, the specific companies named under this protection include Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refining Co., Ltd., Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd., Hebei Xinhai Chemical Group Co., Ltd., and Shandong Shengxing Chemical Co., Ltd.

As per the Chinese MOC, the US measures involve placing these firms on the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list, freezing their assets, and restricting transactions with them.

An MOC spokesperson criticised the US actions, stating that such measures improperly restrict normal economic and trade exchanges between Chinese companies and third countries. The spokesperson added that these actions target citizens and organisations in violation of international law and basic norms governing international relations, Xinhua reported.

The Chinese response follows a period of heightened scrutiny from Washington. Last month, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) cautioned global financial institutions about the sanctions risks associated with dealings involving independent Chinese oil refineries, commonly known as ‘teapot’ refineries, particularly those based in Shandong province.

According to an alert by the OFAC, these refineries have continued to play a significant role in importing and processing Iranian crude oil throughout 2026. The Treasury Department has identified these refineries as major buyers supporting Iran’s oil economy, having reportedly purchased billions of USD worth of Iranian petroleum.

The Chinese Commerce Ministry stated that the blocking order was issued in accordance with Beijing’s rules on countering the extraterritorial application of foreign laws. The measure aims to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests while protecting the legitimate rights of Chinese entities, as reported by Xinhua.

Reiterating its position, the spokesperson said the Chinese government firmly opposes unilateral sanctions that are not authorised by the United Nations or grounded in international law. (ANI)

Bessent says Chinese Banks Warned about Secondary Sanctions

The Treasury Department warns China, Hong Kong, the UAE and Oman

The warning comes the day after the Treasury Department sent a letter to financial institutions in China, Hong Kong, the UAE, and Oman, threatening to levy secondary sanctions for doing business with Iran, and accusing those countries of allowing Iranian illicit activities to flow through their financial institutions.

Bessent told reporters that two Chinese banks have received warnings about handling Iranian money. Trump is preparing to visit Beijing next month for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

That meeting now set to take place in May was postponed from earlier this year

President Trump’s planned visit to Beijing has been postponed to May 14 to 15 because of the ongoing U.S. war with Iran. What does the delay signal about the state of U.S.-China relations

It’s Brookings so, expect a bias

The Conversation

The US blockade can be seen as the latest attempt by the Trump administration to project strength. But it also throws down a challenge to Beijing. China has been the main purchaser of Iranian oil in recent years and is one of the few nations whose shipping can enter the strait unchallenged.

However, the US seizure of any Chinese shipping could certainly provoke a more dangerous outcome, with the prospect of increased tensions or even conflict with Beijing. Should the US seize a Chinese vessel, Beijing could see this as an act of war on Washington’s part, if it chooses to interpret such an incident as an American effort to strangle the Chinese economy.

While an armed clash between the US and China in the Persian Gulf is unlikely, it is possible that Beijing may deploy its fleet stationed in Djibouti to the region. China’s base in Djibouti is home to its 48th escort group which has previously performed anti-piracy operations in the region as well as escort duties for Chinese-owned ships in the region. This which raises the question over whether Washington would be willing to fire on Chinese warships to enforce its blockade

Would Washington be willing?

How Trump’s gambit helps China..

In addition, the potential shortage of petroleum can open the door for wide-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), with Chinese firms such as BYD being potential beneficiaries of a future EV boom. This echoes the popularity of Japanese cars during the Opec crisis of the 1970s, due to their comparatively high fuel efficiency in contrast to American and European models.

As a result, a prolonged Middle East oil crisis may see firms such as BYD become household names, furthering the influence of “Brand China”.

Alongside these, the crisis may further China’s push to present itself as a more stable partner in contrast to Washington’s more chaotic approach. (Yah!) This has gained traction due to the perceived unpredictability of the Trump administration over the past 15 months.

China already has a comparatively favourable global image when compared to the US. A wider conflict with Iran will probably take this further. As a result, the path of the Rich Starry may chart the course of the Sino-American competition and the world that this competition will shape.

Unintended consequences…

Interesting read @ Responsible Statecraft

As soon as the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran ended without an agreement, President Donald Trump fired a volley of angry tweets venting his frustration. As a concrete step to force Iranian concessions, he announced a blockade of Iranian ports along the Persian Gulf.

Cut off Tehran’s oil exports, the logic goes, and the regime will have no choice but to bend to Trump’s will.

This thought process is being echoed and amplified by influential Washington voices who should know better. Take Dennis Ross, a former Middle East peace negotiator, who argued that “the blockade always made more sense than seizing Kharg Island. It stops Iran’s exports, its revenues, is a counterpoint to their closing the Straits.” He also thinks that the measure will “put pressure on China to pressure Iran.”

Meanwhile, Richard Haass, the former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, praised the announcement and suggested the U.S. should “also propose a new governance authority for the Strait in which Iran participates but doesn’t control.”

This is wishcasting disguised as strategy. A blockade is not a clever alternative to military strikes. It is, in fact, an act of war — and one that carries serious risks.

The very idea of an American blockade ignores the legal reality: under international law, Article 3(c) of the U.N. General Assembly’s Definition of Aggression (1974) considers a naval blockade of a sovereign state’s coasts an act of armed aggression. That entitles Iran to use all necessary means to defend itself.

You cannot propose a “governance authority” while your warships are blockading a nation’s lifeline. Haass’s suggestion of a structure where Iran “participates but doesn’t control” is therefore a non-starter. Tehran will never surrender control of its sovereign waters to an arrangement designed by the same power that just declared a blockade.

That is a recipe for continued escalation. And for the Trump administration, a resumption of a shooting war with Iran would be far less popular and far more costly than Ross or Haass seem to acknowledge.

But there is an even more dangerous scenario that no supporter of the blockade addresses. Major buyers of Iranian oil — most notably China — could decide to escort tankers with their own naval vessels. Beijing has a strong economic incentive to call Washington’s bluff. Ross claims a blockade “puts great pressure on China to pressure Iran,” but what if China pressures the U.S. instead? What would the U.S. Navy do then? Fire on Chinese warships? Let the convoys pass, effectively ending the blockade? Risk a direct confrontation with a nuclear-armed power over oil lanes in Hormuz?

The stakes could not be higher as Trump prepares to embark on a visit to China for a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Trump has already postponed the meeting once because of the war with Iran. Postponing it for the second time, or going to Beijing with, using Trump’s own language, weak cards, would be an embarrassing blow to American standing.

So is Trump’s blockade threat a serious policy or bluster? That remains unclear. But one thing is certain: the mere threat of a U.S. blockade is enough to drive oil prices higher and inject dangerous volatility into global markets. On Monday, when the blockade is expected to enter into force, the oil price bounced back to over $100 per barrel. The view that a blockade is a clean, low-risk pressure tool is a dangerous illusion.

Read the above article entirely at the Responsible Statecraft link

Interesting listen

I wrote about this in 2018 at my big tech censored site- accessible via the internet archive. Fortunately, I can still access this and I have a HUGE file of news articles and my posts all stored away– Trumpinsanity was so predictable- Trump and Bibi together, are bring to mind the iconic evil duo Henry Lee Lucas & Ottis Toole-
who are alleged to have killed as many as 3000 people–

Mr Henry Lee Lucas. Convicted of 11 murders, the one-eyed Lucas is thought to have committed many, many (many) more. In fact, on his arrest, the man claimed to have been directly involved in almost 3,000 murders. Few people realise that the man rarely acted alone, though. His preferred killing pal? An arson-obsessed rapist and murderer by the name of Ottis Elwood Toole.

But Trump and Bibi have way more blood on their hands, with their killing spree expanding the globe- Perhaps in the future we will look back on these 2 as the worse mass killing duo of our supposed enlightened an modern times.

Let’s head back to 2018- to my report entitled

Flashback 2018: Trump Breaks(P5 +1) Risks Increased Middle East Conflict—Moved here in 2024

Updated | President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he would reinstate nuclear sanctions against Iran, ending U.S. commitment to a landmark nuclear agreement with Iran. Experts said the move could destabilize the region and spark a new conflict.

It’s seems quite obvious the US is looking to “spark a new conflict”

February 2026-

Trump is weighing “intial limited strikes” to force Iran into a nuclear deal

According to media reports, US President Donald Trump is weighing initial limited strikes to force Iran into a nuclear deal. Speaking with FRANCE 24’s Sharon Gaffney, Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Centre, says

The amount of military hardware Mr Trump has moved into the region does not suggest “limited strikes”

Correct me if I’m wrong?? – rhetorical, cause I’m not. Last year Donald Trump told the world he “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities- So what the hell is he on about?! Iran’s nuclear facilities completely and totally obliterated- Spectacular military success.

This man is insane. Completely and dangerously insane for the planet- That’s my opinion

Brits deny use of Diego Garcia for US Strikes on Iran

The U.K. won’t allow the Pentagon to use British bases to launch attacks on Iran, reported The Times of London.

The ban includes Diego Garcia, the joint U.S.-U.K. base in the Indian Ocean that has been at the center of a deal for Britain to hand over control of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius.

Now amid President Trump’s military buildup in the Mideast, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government won’t permit air missions against Iran to be launched from Diego Garcia or RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, home of America’s B-52 bomber force in Europe, according to the British newspaper.

“Under the terms of long-standing agreements with Washington, these bases can only be used for military operations that have been agreed in advance with the government,” the Times reported.

Mr. Starmer’s Cabinet is reportedly concerned that any use of Diego Garcia or RAF Fairford would be a violation of international law, which “makes no distinction between a state carrying out the attack and those in support if the latter have ’knowledge of the circumstances of the internationally wrongful act.’”

Will Britain back down? I don’t know.

• The stock market ended down on this tension- while the price of oil increased- Bad news for the global economy- inflationary if this persists
• Turkey is opposed to this war.. For obvious reasons
• China is supposed to have leaked intel on locations of US military hardware in Saudi Arabia

Iran, Russia, China envoys hand over joint letter to Grossi- no doubt opposing the US push for war

Not that the IAEA is very trustworthy

Lastly- No US War on Iran: An Open Letter to the UN Security Council
From Jeffrey Sachs

The current threat of an attack by the US did not begin with any failure by Iran to negotiate. On the contrary, it began with the United States’ repudiation of negotiations that had already succeeded.

Distinguished Members of the Security Council,

The President of the United States is issuing grave threats of force against the Islamic Republic of Iran if it does not accede to US demands. His actions risk a major regional war that would be devastating. Asked if he wanted regime change, he responded that it “seems like that would be the best thing that could happen.” When asked why a second US aircraft carrier has been sent to the region, President Trump answered “in case we don’t make a deal, we’ll need it … if we need it, we’ll have it ready.”

Read entirely at the link provided

Financial Times

Xi Jinping has called for the renminbi to become a global reserve currency, in some of his clearest comments on his ambitions for China’s currency as Beijing seeks to play a greater role in the international monetary system. In commentary published on Saturday in Qiushi, the ruling communist party’s flagship ideology journal, China’s president said the country needed to build a “powerful currency” that could be “widely used in international trade, investment and foreign exchange markets, and attain reserve currency status”.

China’s leadership has long sought to promote the internationalisation of the renminbi. But the comments marked Xi’s clearest definition yet of his goal of a “strong currency”, as well as the broader financial foundations

Beijing will need to build to support it. These include a “powerful central bank” capable of effective monetary management, globally competitive financial institutions and international financial centres able to “attract global capital and exert influence over global pricing,” Xi wrote.

The comments were originally part of a speech Xi delivered in 2024 to top regional officials, but had not been released publicly until this week.

So, why is financial times reporting on this 2024 speech at this time?

The publication of Xi’s comments comes amid heightened uncertainty in global markets as a weaker US dollar — which President Donald Trump last week called a “great” development — a change in leadership of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical and trade tensions have prompted central banks to rethink their exposure to dollar assets. “China senses the change of the global order more real than before,” said Kelvin Lam, senior China+ economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Xi’s emphasis on the renminbi reflected “recent ruptures in the global order”, he added.

Caught my eye..

The naval forces of Iran, China, and Russia are preparing to launch the eighth iteration of the joint “Maritime Security Belt” exercises, scheduled for mid-February in the northern Indian Ocean.

According to Iran’s Al-Alam TV website on Saturday, units from the Iranian Army Navy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy will participate in the exercises, along with the navies of China and Russia, as part of efforts to strengthen military and maritime security cooperation among the three countries.

These exercises were first launched in 2019 at the initiative of the Iranian Navy, and seven successful rounds have been held to date.

Iran, Russia, China sign trilateral strategic pact

Jan. 29/26

The pact comes against the backdrop of decades of growing cooperation between these three states. Iran and Russia earlier concluded a 20-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty designed to deepen economic, political, and defence ties, and to blunt the impact of Western sanctions — a treaty that was signed in January 2025 and entered into force last year.  Meanwhile, Iran and China have been bound by a 25-year cooperation agreement first signed in 2021, aimed at expanding trade, infrastructure, and energy integration.

What makes today’s signing significantly different, and newsworthy, is that it explicitly combines the three powers in a coordinated framework, aligning them on issues ranging from nuclear sovereignty and economic cooperation to military coordination and diplomatic strategy.

Officials in Tehran described the pact as a joint commitment to “mutual respect, sovereign independence and a rules-based international system that rejects unilateral coercion,” echoing similar statements issued by Beijing and Moscow.

AA

The leaders of Egypt and Iran discussed Iran’s nuclear file and efforts to reduce regional tensions during a phone call on Saturday, with Cairo stressing the need for diplomatic solutions and warning against military escalation, according to the Egyptian presidency.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi received the call from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, the presidency said in a statement. The conversation addressed developments related to Iran’s nuclear program, with Sisi expressing Egypt’s “deep concern” over rising tensions in the region.

Sisi stressed the need to avoid escalation and rejected military solutions, underscoring that diplomacy remains “the only and optimal path” to resolving the crisis in a way that spares the Middle East further instability, the statement said.

The Egyptian president said Cairo continues to make intensive efforts to encourage the US and Iran to return to the negotiating table, with the aim of reaching a peaceful and comprehensive settlement of the nuclear issue.

Trump keeping Iran Plans close to his vest, leaving allies questioning

President Donald Trump said Saturday the United States is keeping its plans close to the vest as tensions with Iran intensify, even as reports Friday said key Gulf allies remain uncertain about Washington’s intentions and potential intervention.

Trump, in excerpts of a Saturday interview posted on X, declined to provide specifics about U.S. military planning, arguing that secrecy is essential — even with partners in the region seeking clarity.

“Well, we can’t tell them the plan,” Trump said. “If I told them the plan, it would be almost as bad as telling you the plan — it could be worse, actually.”

The comments came a day after reports that several Gulf allies are “in the dark” about what the United States may do next, raising questions about coordination with governments that host U.S. forces and could be affected by any escalation between Washington and Tehran.

Trump framed the situation as a mix of pressure and diplomacy, saying Iran has been communicating with the United States but leaving open the possibility of further action.

“But look, the plan is that [Iran is] talking to us, and we’ll see if we can do something, otherwise we’ll see what happens,” he said.

So…. Is Trump looking for an out? A face saving quick operation? Then he can claim to have stopped 9 wars? His ego is that huge. We’ll know soon enough either way? One thing I’m certain of we don’t need any more war.

Left this comment at X

This tanker is supposed to be empty- Still, this is an act of piracy

The ministry said the vessel was in international waters and that Russia has since lost contact with it: “Today at about 3 p.m. Moscow time, in the open sea beyond the territorial waters of any state, U.S. naval forces boarded the vessel; contact with the ship was lost.”

“In accordance with the norms of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the high seas are governed by freedom of navigation, and no state has the right to use force against vessels properly registered under the jurisdiction of other states.”

You’ll notice in the next article the author mentions Francis Drake, Queen Elizabeth’s favourite PIRATE- Oops, my bad, privateer. Which is just a fancier/obfuscation name for PIRATE and PIRACY, allowing the royalty some plausible deniability in their plundering activities–

Royals and other elites just had someone else do their dirty work (via approval or licensing) and share in their spoils. Pirates were free agents.

inews via archive.ph

In seizing the Russian tanker Marinera, formerly Bella 1, following hard upon the citizen’s arrest of the Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, Donald Trump was aping in the mid 21st century the habits of Queen Elizabeth I’s favourite privateer, Francis Drake.

The seizure of the empty, 22-year-old super tanker somewhere south of the Iceland Gap in the North Atlantic appears to have been accomplished bloodlessly. But it could have deadly consequences.

It was the third tanker to be grabbed by the US Coast Guard and Homeland authorities on the same pretext in as many months.

Immediately after news about Marinera broke, a fourth ship, the Sophia, was reported to have been arrested by US Coast Guards in the Caribbean. The ships were seized for breach of the embargo on Venezuela. They were part of the “ghost fleet” busting sanctions on Russia and Iran, as well as Venezuela.
Last month it was a ship called the Hyperion, and like Bella 1 she had been renamed and reassigned to the Russian flag. Ironically, the Bella 1/Marinera has the newly registered home port of Sochi, on the Black Sea, hard by Vladimir Putin’s favourite summer palace.

It all marks a dramatic handbrake turn in the tangled personal relations between the American and Russian presidents. With his latest move to enforce his version of the Monroe Doctrine of 1823 – renamed the “Donroe Doctrine” – Trump is likely to have reassigned Putin from “frenemy” to outright enemy.

Trump and Putin were not friends- The so called peace negotiations were never legitimate.

The oil embargo strikes at three of Russia’s close clients, allies or proxies – Cuba, Iran, and China. Iran’s shadow fleet is under sanction. As with Maduro’s Venezuela, the principal client for oil from both countries has been China – and Beijing will hurt from Trump’s new oil strategic offensive. The last three registered ports for offloading for Bella 1/Marinera are in China.

Cuba, Russia’s main client and ally in the Caribbean next to Maduro’s Venezuela, is completely dependent on Venezuelan oil. It is now under a complete “soft blockade” from the US. Havana has lately been suffering up to 56 hours on end of sustained blackouts.

The focus for Russia is now to keep the Baltic ports open to oil shipments – especially Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Vysotsk and Kaliningrad. In its enclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, Kaliningrad – formerly Prussian Konigsberg – is especially vulnerable. A formidable naval base, it is now one of the short-odds bets for a clash between Russia and Nato.

Trump’s oil strategy appears to have brutal simplicity. He aims to dominate, and even control where possible, the hydrocarbon resources of the American continent – “Our Hemisphere” in the words of the US national security strategy released last year – plus the strategic minerals from copper to rare earths, lithium and the like. The claim runs from the Arctic to Antarctica.

This leads to America being the dominant hydrocarbon superpower – able to face down Opec, Russia and China, in energy commerce. This week Washington has declared the grabbing of 50 million barrels of oil “owed” to it from Venezuela.

The new face-off with Russia is the key to the latest Trump posture and rhetoric about Greenland. Not so much a deep mineral and hydrocarbon resource, it is needed for America’s defence, we now hear. Specifically, it is needed for American installations as part of the embryonic “Golden Dome” anti-missile defence – because a large part of the projected flight paths of Russia’s strategic missile force is over the Atlantic Arctic, mainly Greenland. It looks as if large parts of Greenland could become areas of sovereign base for the US forces by treaty.

The episode of the Bella 1/Marinera directly involves the UK alliance with the US. A US special force contingent has used bases in England – Thetford, Fairford and Mildenhall – and the standard SOFA – stationing of forces agreement. Supporting the chasing of sanctions-busters, the Royal Navy provided a tanker and the RAF a P8 surveillance plane.

Given the uncertainty of the crisis now emerging across the Nato security area, Keir Starmer is being urged to fulfill his airy promises about security of last year, and put real money into overdue defence reform and development.
The events across the Atlantic from the Caribbean to the Baltic of the last days and hours, as well as the implosion of Iran, are parts of a rolling crisis, now changing by the hour.
Donald Trump, no doubt, is bathing in the spotlight as possibly the number one global player – for good or ill.

If you haven’t yet read this previous post? Might be a good time to do that!

Keeping in mind;

The Roman empire eventually collapsed due largely to over expansion/extension. History repeats.

https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/2026-the-year-the-dollar-dies

I’ve been warning about the dollar’s eventual decline for some time now. Back in 2023, in my piece U.S. Dollar “Fear Mongers” Only Need To Be Right Once, I wrote that “optimists about the U.S. economy and the dollar’s global reserve status have had the wind at their back for half of a century,” and that this very success had made it almost impossible for people to seriously consider alternative outcomes.

I compared the United States to a gambler on the greatest hot streak in history, drunk on decades of winnings, blind to the reality that when you’re betting everything on every hand, you only have to be wrong once to give it all back.

Since that time, I’ve been tracking four developments in particular that continue to reinforce that warning: the accelerating de-dollarization efforts between Russia and China, the open challenge to the dollar being mounted by the BRICS bloc, the increasingly destructive nature of U.S. monetary policy, and the relentless rise in gold and silver prices, a market signal that confidence in the dollar’s long-term purchasing power is quietly eroding. Even the Swiss franc, long viewed as one of the world’s hardest currencies, has recently pushed to highs against the dollar, another subtle but important message from the market.

At the time I first laid this out, the argument was dismissed by many as fringe (hence the name of my blog, which came from a reader comment), overly pessimistic, even conspiratorial. But now that narrative is no longer confined to the margins. It’s moving steadily into the mainstream. A recent piece in WIRED makes that clear.

WIRED argues that 2026 may mark the year when what it calls “dollar dilution” truly begins to accelerate: not a dramatic collapse, but a steady erosion of the dollar’s role as the central artery of global trade and finance. The more Washington weaponizes the currency through sanctions, seizures, and financial exclusion, the more aggressively the rest of the world builds systems designed to route around it, it says.

And as my readers know damn well, this is already happening. Here’s a sampling of pieces I’ve published about it over the last 3 years:

March 05, 2023 – “A Tsunami of Inflation”: One Interview Everyone Should Watch This Sunday – Features analysis warning that the U.S. dollar faces reserve status challenges and that BRICS and petrodollar erosion may lead to a global monetary reset.

December 08, 2023 – Petrodollar Endgame Moves Even Closer – Highlights the UAE halting U.S. dollar oil transactions and the broader deterioration of the petrodollar system as evidence of the dollar’s weakening global role.

June 19, 2024 – Saudi Arabia Drifts Away From Washington And The U.S. Dollar – Discusses Saudi Arabia’s increasing willingness to settle oil in non-dollar currencies and its implications for U.S. influence and dollar hegemony.

January 12, 2024 – “All Bull Markets Run Out Of Money”: Dave Collum – While broader in focus, this piece includes commentary on runaway government debt, de-dollarization trends, and systemic risk that underpin pressure on the dollar.

August 31, 2025 – Gold To $6,000 Next Year: Peter Schiff Exclusive – A conversation projecting further dollar weakness and dramatic gold price inflation — reflecting perceived loss of confidence in the dollar.

November 22, 2025 – Central Bankers Disagree About Gold – Explores soaring gold prices as a potential indicator of eroding trust in the U.S. dollar and central banker acknowledgment of shifting currency confidence.

Wired now carries the torch forward, and closer to the mainstream than even. They write that America’s share of global trade has fallen from roughly one-third in 2000 to about one-quarter today. As emerging economies trade more with one another, the dollar is no longer the default medium of exchange. India and Russia now settle trade in rupees, dirhams, and yuan. China moves more than half of its trade through CIPS, its own cross-border payment network, rather than SWIFT. Brazil and Argentina, the UAE and India, and Indonesia and Malaysia are all piloting local-currency settlement systems. These are not ideological gestures. They are structural changes.

At the same time, the reserve picture is shifting. In 1999 the dollar represented 72 percent of global reserves. Today that figure is down to 58 percent and continues to slide. A reserve currency functions on confidence, and confidence is increasingly strained by ballooning U.S. fiscal deficits, a widening current-account gap, relentless money creation, and the growing use of financial infrastructure as a geopolitical weapon. What once seemed cushioned by the dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” now looks increasingly fragile.

If you missed the Wired article, it was included in the post below