A North American trade pact — negotiated by President Donald Trump during his first term — means that most American products enter Canada duty-free. Rankings of the world’s most open economies usually put Canada near the top.

But when Trump looks at Canada, he says, he sees a predator out to cheat the United States and strangle its industries.
America has been “ripped off for 50 years by Canada,” the president declared Saturday when asked if he was considering pulling out of the three-way agreement he signed with the leaders of Canada and Mexico in late 2018.

Landing on the list of nations with allegedly unfair trade policies is a jarring turn of events for Canada, a country that built its economy around international commerce. Canada’s trade is equal to 64% of its economic output, the World Bank says, versus 25% for America.

There’s time for a deal to end the standoff

The neighboring countries need each other economically. Canada sends about 70% of its exports to the United States. U.S. refineries need Alberta’s oil. American farmers need Canadian potash fertilizer. Communities on the northern U.S. border rely on electricity generated in Canada.

The conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington ranked Canada No. 14 (out of 184 economies) on its Index of Economic Freedom; the United States landed eight spots lower at No. 22.

The libertarian Fraser Institute in Vancouver likewise ranked Canada No. 11 (out of 165 countries and territories) on its Economic Freedom of the World report.

Before the latest blowup, Canada’s effective tariff rate on U.S. imports was about 2.4%, less than half the 5% that the United States imposed on Canada, according to calculations by Oxford Economics. Most U.S. exports enter Canada duty-free under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement that took effect on July 1, 2020.

Canada Protects it’s Dairy Industry, but..

So, does the US. The US protects and subsidizes their dairy industry

The 588-page study by Grey, Clark, Shih and Associates — commissioned by Dairy Farmers of Canada (DFC) — says the American government contributed around $22.2 billion in direct and indirect subsidies to the dairy sector in 2015.

Lead author Peter Clark shared the numbers at DFC’s annual policy conference in Ottawa this week.

“The support is completely ignored,” he said. “When it comes to farm support, the U.S. has the deepest pockets; deeper even than the European Union. Our study provides detail nationally, and on a state basis, the losses to U.S. dairy farmers. USDA data reveals that for more than a decade, U.S. farm gate prices for milk fail to cover costs of production.”

But, but, that’s a Canadian source- See below an American source

https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/dairy/policy

The program is administered by USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Classified pricing and The revenue pooling are two key elements of FMMO regulations. FMMOs set minimum prices paid by milk processors for milk from dairy farmers according to how the processor utilizes the milk.

Dairy Forward Pricing Program

However, the forward contracts cannot cover Class I fluid milk. Handlers entering these agreements will pay farmers the contract price instead of the FMMO calculated minimum blend price. However, handlers must continue to account to the Federal Order revenue pool for all milk they receive at the respective order’s minimum class prices

Dairy Margin Coverage

DMC is a voluntary program that protects dairy producers when the difference between the U.S. all-milk price and a national average feed cost (as calculated by a formula) falls below a certain dollar amount selected by the dairy farmer

Dairy Indemnity Payment

The program provides payments to dairy producers when a public regulatory agency directs them to remove their raw milk from the commercial market because it has been contaminated by pesticides and other residues

Dairy Revenue Protection

The Dairy Revenue Protection program insures against unexpected declines in each participating operation’s quarterly revenue from milk sales relative to a guaranteed coverage level.

Check the link yourself– The US government subsidizes the US dairy industry in many ways..

Back to Fortune..

Canada shields its dairy producers through a convoluted system that imposes tariffs of more than 200% on most dairy products — nearly 300% on some items, such as butter — once they’ve exceeded a quota, according to Leonard Polzin, a specialist in dairy markets at the University of Wisconsin.

Polzin said the Canadians have a strong incentive to protect their politically sensitive dairy industry from competition with America.

Wisconsin alone produces more milk than all of Canada. American dairy producers are so adept at producing large quantities of low-cost milk, Polzin said, that if Canada opened its market completely “we would dump so much product there’s no way they could remain as a viable industry.’’

Trump claimed falsely on social media Tuesday that “Canada doesn’t let our Great Dairy Farmers sell into the Canadian Market.’’

In fact, the United States agreed in the USMCA to allow Canada to continue the supply management system in return for giving American dairy farmers more access to the Canadian market. And American dairy producers have made headway: U.S. dairy exports to Canada rose more than 11% last year on top of an 8% increase in 2024, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The United States already runs a hefty trade surplus in dairy with its northern neighbor, exporting $1.3 billion worth of dairy products to Canada last year while importing just $585 million, according to the USDA.

US runs a trade deficit with Canada because of oil

Overall, the United States runs a trade deficit with Canada — $27.3 billion last year — and Trump isn’t happy about it.

But the gap between what the U.S. sells to Canada and what it buys can be explained by one industry: oil. Canada exported more than $85 billion worth of crude oil to the United States in 2025.

Refineries in the U.S. Midwest need heavy sour crude oil from Alberta’s oil sands deposits.

“It’s the only oil they can use,” Appleton said. “They can’t use Texas crude. They can’t use Venezuelan crude. They’re not set up for it. It would take years and billions of dollars to shift over.’’

What’s more, the Canadian oil sells at a discount to the benchmark U.S. crude oil.

Repeating as I end this piece

What’s more, the Canadian oil sells at a discount to the benchmark U.S. crude oil.

Trump is good at one thing for sure, undeniable- misrepresenting to the point of outright lying

It’s weird that so called first world Canadians would fall for the same methods of operation (modus operandi ) that have taken place in country after country in which the US interfered. Iraq, Libya, Syria as just a few examples. Aren’t Canadians supposed to be all progressive, savvy and educated? That’s the claim, but, here we are and my conclusion has been made.

After writing extensively about Syria as it was destabilized in real time, it has become undeniable that what has been and is occurring in Canada was the same type of propaganda/ perception managing campaign that had played out so many times before.

Social media played a huge role in Syria’s destruction. In fact the entire “Arab spring” was promoted through social media, though internet connectivity was low in the region at that time. I can talk about how that happened, but, it’s not necessary at this time.

Of course, assets and natural resources were plundered and each country was left in worse shape then when the US campaigns started. Libya’s gold was stolen as was it’s oil. Same with Iraq and Syria. Canada, has natural resources too. The US certainly has designs on natural resources. Obvious in Trump’s Greenland moves. The location is beneficial for the US to maintain global hegemony as well. Canada has geostrategic value as well

Right now were looking at the economic & diplomatic pressure methodology of destabilizing– This would be most obvious in the outrageous demands made by the Trump administration during the most recent trade negotiations. And the endless tariff war initiated by Trump against Canada and other nations.

As well as election interference, that the US would never tolerate.

Along with the giant heaping, foul, steaming piles of obvious and blatant demonization of the targeted nation, Canada. Trump is relentless in portraying America as the “victim” of Canada. Or Canada as some overwhelming evil that needs to be redeemed/saved. It’s quite pathetic when one considers the reality.

Remember the Canada is a fentanyl providing nation threat to the US? Most notably promoted by Canadian con artist ( IMO) Sam Cooper- Or as I like to call him Scam Cooper- Prominent promoter of disinfo on X. Recall my very large, extensively linked post. Covering this gossipy pieces and reporting the fact he’s been brought to court for defamation.. Twice if my memory is correct. Give that older post a read for yourself!

Of course there is the domestic political interference aspect. Ongoing this time in Alberta.

There have been numerous reports on this very subject.

Link–Smith admits referendum facing foreign interference

“Malicious actors can reach into everybody’s life using social media,” he said Wednesday in an interview with the News.

X is full of these types of accounts, hailing from everywhere on the planet..

“What disinformation achieves is it basically poisons us against each other,” he said. “Like what we see in the States, where someone who’s a different political party is no longer like someone who has different policy ideas, but is seen as someone who’s like a traitor to their country, someone who’s not really human in some way. “It poisons us against each other, and then who can be believed?” According to the most recent report, the most common narratives foreign actors are promoting are about cost of living crisis, media corruption and U.S. statehood.

The true believers in Canada won’t accept they are being played, but, they are- I’ve seen these same ploys/tactics play out so many times, over too many years of covering geopolitical happenings

Since then, common narratives have avoided the referendum directly, instead aiming to stoke discord about specific political concerns and to undermine trust in government and media. This week, Premier Danielle Smith said she was concerned by Cipher’s findings, after previously denying any evidence suggested foreign actors were interfering in discourse surrounding the referendum. “What we do say is people just need to, before they believe everything they read on social media, they need to check the source and verify to make sure that they’re not sharing things and inadvertently amplifying a message that is being used to try to interfere in our contest,” said Smith in a statement. “I trust that Albertans are able to do that research.”

**Hattip over to Ms Cat’s Chronicles as she had covered the meeting of Trump administration officials and Alberta Separatists

Trump officials met group pushing Alberta independence from Canada + More

Leaders of the Alberta Prosperity Project, a group of far-right separatists who want the western province to become independent, met US state department officials in Washington three times since April last year, according to people familiar with the talks.

Meetings between US officials and Syrian destabilizers were frequent as well. They even had a mission in the US. 2014. Yes, 12 years ago..

This is a very common tactic in US destabilization campaigns- meeting with opposition figures. Not a surprise the US is meeting Canadian destabilizers/separatists.

**Dutch Youtube creators behind Alberta Separatist videos

Remember the whole absurd, blame Canada for smoke drifting from forest fires in our enormous boreal forest. Really pathetic, pointless stuff. Nonetheless the sycophantic targets gobbled it down. Demonization, ad hominem galore, but, nothing more

Trump claims to be subsidizing Canada because of the trade deficit? This is over the top bullshit. You have to be very naive or clueless to eat this up? Let’s talk about this..

Donald Trump is fond of repeating that the United States “subsidizes” Canada and other countries, alluding to the country’s trade deficits. Let’s be clear:

The United States isn’t handing money out to Canada or to any other nation. A trade deficit isn’t a subsidy. The United States is simply buying foreign products at market price.

The United States is simply buying foreign products at market price.

What is actually true is many other countries prop up the US through the use of the petro dollar- which requires other nations to hold US dollars for trade. Which allows the US to have an insane amout of debt.

This petro dollar dominance is looking to be coming apart and I will write more on this topic soon – I have, however, relinked a recent article immediately below. This may seem a digresion from the main subject, perhaps slightly, but not entirely. In fact, I’m going to suggest that because the US is tottering financially, the bond market is shaky, very shaky and use of the petro dollars is declining- the US has to resort, again, to plunder of other nations resources. Same as it always has. And this makes Canada an easy target. And that’s what is happening right now!

I’m not alone in this thinking. Sadly, there just aren’t that many of us that can see the forest for the trees. Or the destabilization campaign for what it really is? But there are others who see the reality, because they don’t have blinders over their eyes. And perception managed brains addling their understanding

Lastly, these absurd claims that Canada is going to join China. Or that Canada is going to join the EU and China- No legitimate information on Canada joining the EU or China that I can see.

Btw, The US trades substantially more with China than Canada does.

David Pugliese is an award-winning journalist covering Canadian Forces and military issues in Canada

A judge has ordered the release of federal records on an American initiative to settle Nazi war criminals in Canada after ruling there is no evidence that making the files public would harm relations between the two nations.

The records involve a U.S. program set up after the Second World War to secretly settle large numbers of Nazi war criminals in Canada, often with the support of Canadian officials.

The federal government declined to release the documents under the Access to Information law, claiming the records would harm U.S.-Canada relations at a time of ongoing tension.

But Federal Court judge Simon Fothergill concluded that claim was unsupported by any evidence. “A bald statement of ongoing ‘tensions’ between Canada and the United States is not a sufficient basis to refuse disclosure of very specific information related to efforts by the United States to resettle suspected Nazis and Nazi collaborators in Canada following World War II,” he wrote in a Sept. 1 ruling.

The decision to withhold the information was unreasonable and the records must now be disclosed, Fothergill concluded.

Similar information had already been released years ago by the Central Intelligence Agency, which ran the Nazi resettlement program, as well as the U.S. government.

After the war, U.S. intelligence agencies recruited Nazis and Nazi collaborators, many from eastern Europe, for their covert operations against the Soviet Union.

Fothergill noted in his ruling that the study written for the Deschênes Commission concluded “inadequate security screening led to many perpetrators of Nazi war crimes entering Canada.” He also pointed out the study concluded Canada was reluctant to prosecute such war criminals.

That “inadequate security screening” was intentional- same as in the US.

Canada has long been seen as a haven for Nazis and their collaborators, including large numbers of Waffen SS soldiers. There are a number of monuments in Canada to the Waffen SS. In addition, the Department of Canadian Heritage had to remove the names of several hundred alleged Nazi collaborators it planned to engrave on the Victims of Communism Memorial in Ottawa.

Robertson said he is hopeful the public will get a better understanding why the government had agreed to the Nazi resettlement program after the war. “This is a victory for all Canadians,” he said. “This is information that all Canadians deserve to have made accessible.”

Much of the renewed debate around Nazi war criminals and collaborators in Canada was prompted by a September 2023 event in which MPs of all parties gave two standing ovations to Yaroslav Hunka, a resident of North Bay, ON. Hunka was described by then-House of Commons Speaker Anthony Rota as a hero and he was thanked for his military service.

But news quickly emerged that Hunka had served in a Ukrainian Waffen SS unit which fought for the Nazis. Large numbers of soldiers from a Ukrainian Waffen SS division came to Canada after the war.

There are no allegations that Hunka took part in any war crimes.
Article content

The Polish government and Jewish groups have denounced the Ukraine SS unit for its role in killing civilians and its involvement in massacres during the Second World War. The division was also used by the Nazis to crush a national uprising in Slovakia, again prompting allegations of war crimes.

But some Ukrainian nationalists see the SS soldiers as heroes because they fought against the Soviet Union. The Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Alberta in Edmonton continues to maintain eight endowments in the names of Ukrainian SS veterans.

The clock ticked toward midnight on Friday. New U.S. tariffs on Canada were about to come into effect and negotiators cooped up across the street from the White House were still plodding through the differences on each side. Aides shuffled in and out with new drafts, adjusting and readjusting.

U.S. officials said they had offered Canada the best trade deal of any nation. Canadians believed it was a bad one. In the waning hours, both sides dug in even more.

One Canadian negotiator said it was as if “shadow figures were suddenly in the room,” raising topics that had supposedly been settled in previous days.

Back in Ottawa, Prime Minister Mark Carney got off the phone with Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario. Mr. Ford had told him plainly: Don’t take the deal.

Mr. Ford told Mr. Carney he would not comply with a key U.S. demand: restoring the sale of U.S. alcohol that he, alongside most other provincial leaders, had banned. American tariffs on Canadian steel and automobiles were still too high to enable their long-term survival, Mr. Ford had decided.

Mr. Carney called his team in Washington for the latest news from the negotiations. Then, just after 10:30 p.m., he pulled the plug and ordered them home.

The sticking points were many. In the last few hours, negotiators clashed over Canadian rules promoting French-language movies and shows online, as well as the Trump administration’s demands to dictate Canada’s steel tariffs on other countries. Canada, in turn, insisted on more generous treatment for its autos, electric vehicles and products made with metal — and ultimately backed away from its offer to cooperate on the Keystone XL pipeline that President Trump has long desired, people familiar with the negotiations said.

What led to the breakdown is a story of fundamental misalignment between the countries — ideological, economic and political. Ultimately, Mr. Carney decided to defy Mr. Trump and endure his economic and political targeting of Canada.

This account, which contains previously unreported details of the final days and hours of the trade negotiations, is based on interviews with five American and Canadian officials with direct knowledge of the talks, two former U.S. officials, as well as seven senior industry leaders on both sides of the border who were briefed throughout.

The interviews show that the red lines for the two sides were so far apart that it would have required major concessions, particularly by Canada, to come to a final agreement.

Howard Lutnick- Epstein neighbour, visitor to Epstein Island- LIAR- A really big part of the problem- Same as in many negotiations internationally- Iran, Russia as examples

The files revealed that Epstein and Lutnick were in business together as recently as 2014, investing simultaneously in a now-shuttered advertising company called Adfin. 

NYT’s continues

The Lutnick Factor

Mr. Lutnick, a hard-charging former bond broker who has known Mr. Trump for decades, oversees the administration’s tariffs on cars, trucks, steel and aluminum. And in the coming days, he would take a hard line on those topics, issues that ultimately took down the talks.

On Tuesday night, U.S. and Canadian officials agreed on the outlines of a deal, and Mr. Trump proclaimed on social media that he had paused his tariffs until midnight Friday to finalize the paperwork.

But on Wednesday, as the two sides got into the details, particularly on metals and autos, snags emerged. Mr. Lutnick was wary of Canadian proposals that would lower the tariff on autos below the level he wanted.

As word leaked last week that the United States would reduce its tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, U.S. companies lobbied the Commerce Department and the White House to preserve their protections. Mr. Lutnick intervened on their behalf, including suggesting that only a certain volume of aluminum be subject to lower tariff rates.

As word leaked last week that the United States would reduce its tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, U.S. companies lobbied the Commerce Department and the White House to preserve their protections. Mr. Lutnick intervened on their behalf, including suggesting that only a certain volume of aluminum be subject to lower tariff rates.

The US is denying all this of course, but, the reporting looks solid- Lutnick did what Lutnick does- I’m surprised he didn’t have Kushner at his side?

Col D.K. Turenne – For extraordinary leadership and diplomatic skill as director of the Combined Air Operations Center during the Israel-Iran conflict, synchronizing multinational air operations and enabling the safe evacuation of 10,000 personnel from the Al Udeid Air Base, Doha, Qatar, June 2025;

Came back to Alberta after having spent 5 years in Colorado with NORAD.

New Commander of 4 Wing no stranger to CFB Cold Lake

Colonel David Turenne assumed command of 4 Wing on June 3rd. He has spent the better part of 26 years in the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF).

Turenne is originally from Edmonton. He received his wings in 1999 and, after training, headed to 3 Wing in Bagotville.

He’s no stranger to 4 Wing, having trained here and been posted as a Fighter Pilot with 409 Tactical Fighter Squadron and 410 Tactical Fighter (Operational Training) Squadron. The last few years have seen him south of the border with the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) team in Colorado.

“I’ve been in Colorado Springs, at the NORAD headquarters, for the last five years which isn’t a normal length of time,” says Turenne. “Because of COVID, there were changes in cross-border moves. I was doing a few jobs down there, including working for the Chief of Staff of the Headquarters, I was director of NORAD inspections, and I’m currently the Deputy Director for J7 Joint Training, Exercises and Wargaming Directorate.”

Col Turenne has 2800 flight hours, with over 2000 of them via the CF-18. This is his first Wing Command position.

So, through NORAD Canada was involved?? Not a shocker.

*Pandemic as unique opportunity to test propaganda techniques

*Recall? War of the World’s alien invasion was also a mass psyop

*Looks to me as if the Alberta separatist movement is a psyop- working on multiple levels and infiltrated by outsiders

The reality is we are manipulated every day. From what goods to buy through to selling war.
The push to attack Iran is chock full of psyops/propaganda intended to get us on board with this action.

Valour Canada- “If” Day

At 0700 hours the siren cried into the early morning sky of February 19, 1942, and before long the city of Winnipeg, Manitoba, was plunged into a blackout. The supposed enemy was inching closer and despite the 3,500 Canadian soldiers and reservists making up the defensive army, it crumbled to the Nazi invaders. Winnipeg surrendered at 0930 hours.

But there was nothing real about this invasion – it was all an elaborate ploy to bolster interest and donations to the Victory Bond campaign. “If” Day was meant show Canadians what would happen if Nazis were not sufficiently kept at bay.

For the duration of the day, Winnipeg turned into Himmlerstadt (after high-ranking Nazi officer and head of the SS Henrich Himmler), Portage Avenue became Adolfhitlerstrasse, and Canadian dollars were replaced by Reichmarks.

Mock events aimed to instill a sense of fear and show the extent to which rights and freedoms would be curtailed by an oppressive Nazi regime. Priests and politicians were arrested, churches and other places of worship were forcibly closed, books were incinerated on the front steps of Carnegie Library, brusque identification inspections were conducted on street cars, homes were vandalized, all while Nazi-approved music and speeches reverberated on the radio.

“Everywhere the force of the great and valiant Nazi army are bringing the New Order to the Provinz of Greater Germany. The great and valiant Nazi army is also bringing to the Provinz German Kultur and the blessings of German civilization,” celebrated the newly minted Das Winnipeger Lugenblatt (“formerly” The Winnipeg Tribune).

To create the ultimate illusion, volunteers with the Young Men’s Section of the Winnipeg Board of Trade paraded in Nazi uniforms specially rented from Hollywood. Their behavior towards locals was intentionally brash and rough – though unlike their veritable counterparts, the Winnipeg “Nazis” did not exert any physical violence.

The deception was very convincing for many. “A lot of people were very uneasy and quite intimidated about this thing. Maybe it made them think that it could happen here. They didn’t know how far these Nazis would go,” recalled George Hoffman who played a fake Nazi.

Although the true Nazis had no immediate interest in conquering Canada, “If” Day did give Manitobans a small taste of what life under Nazi occupation would be like in a bid to drive support for the second Victory Bond campaign and propel donations into high gear. Through this first-hand experience, Winnipeggers appreciated how crucial it was to fight in Europe so Canada would not be vulnerable to a real invasion. The original goal of $45 million was surpassed for a total of $47 million (or approximately $658 million in 2017 dollars) – if the “Nazi” invasion was not successful because it was all staged, the Victory Bond campaign definitely was successful.

It’s an amazement to realize just how far a government, any government, will got to manipulate the populace to advance it’s own ends/agenda

Manitoba History- “If” Day Feb 19/1942

President Donald Trump’s tariffs may now be challenged in the House following the death of House Resolution 1042 on Tuesday night. The resolution included a procedural measure that would have prevented the House from voting until August to terminate the national emergencies that Trump has used to impose “reciprocal tariffs.” Now, the House will likely vote on Wednesday on House Joint (H.J.) Resolution 72, which, like its companion measure in the Senate that passed last April, seeks to end the national emergency Trump declared last February and roll back the tariffs subsequently imposed on Canadian goods.

But Republican leaders could not persuade Kiley, Bacon, and Massie to vote “yes.” Massie defended his decision to break from party ranks as “defend[ing] the Constitution,” which vests “taxing authority…in the House of Representatives, not the Executive.” Similarly, Bacon said he must “answer to Article I,” which grants Congress exclusive power to regulate international commerce and impose taxes.

Beginning in February 2025 with his tariffs against Canada and Mexico, Trump has invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to authorize his unilateral modification of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule. Trump used IEEPA in April, and again last summer, to impose his not-so-reciprocal tariffs on imports from all around the world, the burden of which has been almost entirely borne by Americans.

Unsurprisingly, to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, Trump had to declare a national emergency. Such emergencies are subject to congressional review.

Instead of facing trial for their participation in war crimes during WW2, they became top generals in NATO.

Which is why, NATO, like Nazi Germany, is always targeting Russia.

Kyivpost

The move ties economic recovery to wartime governance, as Zelensky reshapes his team around security, technology and Western-backed expertise amid prolonged uncertainty.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has appointed former Canadian deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland as an advisor on economic development, adding an internationally experienced figure to his team as Ukraine recalibrates its government to meet the dual pressures of war and long-term recovery.

The appointment was announced by Volodymyr Zelensky on social media, where he framed the move as part of a broader effort to strengthen Ukraine’s internal resilience amid uncertainty over the pace of diplomacy and continued delays in external support.

“Chrystia is highly skilled in these matters and has extensive experience in attracting investment and implementing economic transformations,” Zelensky wrote. He said Ukraine must be prepared both for rapid recovery if negotiations yield results and for prolonged resistance if the war continues.

A high-profile economic appointment

Freeland’s role will focus on economic development at a time when Ukraine faces enormous reconstruction needs alongside the demands of a wartime economy. Zelensky emphasized that the appointment is meant to deepen engagement with international partners and mobilize investment critical to sustaining the state.

After leaving Canada’s cabinet, Freeland was appointed (readied) special representative for the reconstruction of Ukraine, a role that positioned her at the intersection of international finance, diplomacy and postwar planning

• A U.S. intervention in Venezuela would trigger an immediate oil price spike, but analysts expect prices to fall later if regime change leads to sanctions being lifted.
• Venezuela’s heavy crude is a perfect fit for U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, meaning increased Venezuelan supply would directly compete with Canadian heavy oil.
• With over 300 billion barrels of reserves, Venezuela represents a huge long-term prize.
• The most immediate impact of such a move on the part of the Trump administration would, of course, be a price jump. Venezuela has seen its oil production and exports shrink considerably since the start of the U.S. sanction offensive, although in the past couple of years, there has been some recovery in both. The latest export figures, for November, showed a daily average of around 900,000 barrels, which Reuters said was the third-highest for this year.

If that “something” happens, it will have repercussions for the Canadian oil industry as well. Energy analyst David Blackmon noted this in a recent podcast, saying the return of more Venezuelan crude to Gulf Coast refineries will affect demand for Canadian crude, and it would not affect it favorably. In such a hypothetical context, it would be a smart thing for the Canadian government to expand the access of Canadian crude to markets other than the United States, such as China.(Canada has already been expanding trade with China)

Venezuela has oil reserves of over 300 billion barrels. This is 20% of the global total and certainly a prize worth coveting. However, getting to that prize would involve an oil price shock that would be inconsistent with “the key to affordability” as expressed by Secretary Bessent. The situation certainly remains interesting, keeping analysts on their toes, unsure what the endgame of the Trump admininistration is—and as a consequence what the U.S. president would ultimately choose to do with regard to Venezuela. All of this adds a new vector of uncertainty to oil markets.

Recently the US has seized a Venezuelan oil tanker with an eye to seizing more

The United States is preparing to intercept more ships transporting Venezuelan oil following the seizure of a tanker this week, as it increases pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, six sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

The seizure was the first interdiction of an oil cargo or tanker from Venezuela, which has been under U.S. sanctions since 2019. The action came as the U.S. executes a large-scale military buildup in the southern Caribbean and as U.S. President Donald Trump campaigns for Maduro’s ouster.

Went to check and guess what? It’s behind the paywall now- So via archive.ph

On the first night of a war games exercise meant to help Canada prepare for a possible global conflict, Russia sent drones into Poland, and NATO forces opened fire for the first time since the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Not in the game: in real life. On the elevator up to the introductory dinner at the Royal Canadian Military Institute for the sequel to the war game from last year involving Canada’s health-care system, one doctor said, “It’s not so hypothetical anymore, is it?”

One year earlier a group of health-care leaders, Canadian Armed Forces officials, and provincial government representatives completed an almost unprecedented Ontario-focused war games exercise based on a wider war in Europe involving Canadian troops. As trauma expert, NATO blood panel leader, and military surgeon Dr. Andrew Beckett put it, “the last time we did something like this was probably 1939.” To the vast majority of Canadians, and even to those in the room at the time, the idea of a society-wide war was hard to even imagine.

This time, the urgency was palpable. As the Russian war in Ukraine continues, the world is sliding into a more militaristic posture. Eastern European nations along Russia’s border — Lithuania, Poland, Latvia, Estonia — are engaged in various levels of medical wartime planning. Russia’s drone incursion into Poland in early September was followed by suspected drone incursions across Europe, shutting down major airports or seeming to map territory. Norway’s defence minister says Russia has nuclear weapons in the northern Kola Peninsula, pointed at the U.S., the U.K., and Canada, in case of war with NATO. (???)

Meanwhile, Germany is expecting to treat 1,000 wounded patients daily in the case of a wider European conflict, and is discussing the return of mandatory military service; this summer France’s health ministry directed its hospital system to prepare for potential military casualties by March 2026. 

Canada is further from Ukraine, and further behind in its preparations — for instance, the plan to use public servants as military reservists, as reported by the Ottawa Citizen, which was hastily reconsidered — which is what this war game was trying to solve. It was called Exercise Canada Paratus, and it was bigger than the first edition. There were federal officials in the room, along with a wider range of expertise: burn surgeons, rehab specialists, a flight surgeon, an airport official, emergency preparation officials, and more. It was conducted under Chatham House rule, meaning nobody’s in-game statements could be directly quoted by name; this reporter played the role of the press, pressing decision-makers with difficult questions.

Exercise Canada Paratus Post-​Exercise Report

The war games were a collaboration between the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, the CAF, the Canadian Institute for Military and Veteran Health Research, St. Michael’s Hospital, and other military-focused organizations.

Last year, the moves to relieve pressure on the hospitals mirrored COVID, because that was the only crisis playbook available, and the exercise was confined to Ontario. This time the field widened, which was appropriate: in a war the federal government would be in charge, and the whole federation would have to work together. Canada hasn’t effectively done that in generations, either.

The game presumed an average of 100 casualties per week coming home, with injuries mirroring the data from Ukraine: a huge number of both burns and traumas, a high probability of multi-drug resistant bacteria, significant traumas. There is a shortage of both burn surgeons and skin for grafts in Canada: right now most Canadian skin grafts are sourced from the United States, and as someone noted, skin cannot be donated while you are alive. Later, rehabilitation, physiotherapy, prosthetics and more would be absolutely overwhelmed, in so many ways.

But it’s the societal impact of a stream of those patients, with potentially complex and long-term needs that would impact Canada at a higher level, especially in big cities, with big hospitals. In the game Pearson Airport was knocked offline by a cyberattack, and separately, there was a terrorist attack in Ontario. The wounded had to come home on private planes, reconfigured and under national control — Canada doesn’t have enough military planes to spare. POWs were an added complication: where do you put them?

Read entirely at Archive.ph link