Everyone is quite quiet lately? Could it be the increased hostilities in the middle east? Israel and the US turning up the heat on Iran? Russia advancing in Ukraine while US bellicosity towards Russia escalates?

Or how about watching retirement savings disappearing? Understanding all pension plans personal and otherwise, including CPP (Canada Pension Plan), are being negatively affected by this instability?

On a side note-we’re a couple of years away from retiring, this doesn’t inspire confidence for our “golden years”

While acknowledging my understanding of all these financial machinations is certainly limited. I’ve been reading and posting different articles here. Well, I got another one. I read this three times, including once to my husband because the author really explained, very well, the numerous problems with this economic warfare the US has initiated. Including in the way this has all been presented to a mainstream audience.

A limited excerpt is included below the links, but, the entire piece can be read at the archive link below

Link to Globe and Mail and Archive.ph

David Rosenberg- Special to the Globe and Mail

There is now certainty that this White House trade strategy is both nonsensical and unachievable. Look, we can all accept that China is a menace and a huge cheater, but it would be preferable if the White House specifically dealt with Xi Jinping. One can certainly make the case that Mexico was the big winner from the NAFTA sucking sound (not Canada). But when President Trump states that the trade plan is “our declaration of economic independence,” what he is, in effect, saying is that he wants America to be “independent” – or “liberated” – from bilateral deficits with all countries running such gaps against the U.S.

As a result, just about any country in the world that runs trade surpluses with the United States just faced a brutal and unanticipated assault in terms of magnitude – 57 in total (with a range of 1 per cent to 40 per cent of penalties layered on top of the 10 per cent baseline move – amazingly, Russia and North Korea were not on the hit list). While I don’t like to label this a “tariff” rate (I define what this is below), it basically amounts to 22 per cent, and that takes out Smoot-Hawley in 1930 and is the highest since 1910 (a big shock from 2.5 per cent before this current trade war was launched).

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President Trump said he loved that word “reciprocal” when he spoke at the Rose Garden on Wednesday and even took the time to define it for us. But let’s look at the numbers. What is reciprocal about imposing a “tariff” of 10 per cent on the U.K. (as an example) when it has a tariff rate of 0.7 per cent on imports of U.S. goods? That is what we should be asking ourselves. Or a 10 per cent tariff now imposed on Australia when it has no tariffs at all on imports of U.S. merchandise.

How is that reciprocal? Reciprocal would mean a 3.9 per cent tariff on Korea, not 25 per cent. It would mean a 3.9 per cent tariff on Japan, not 24 per cent. India got slapped with a 26 per cent tariff even though its tariff rate on the U.S. is 5.5 per cent. What is with Vietnam being hit with a 46 per cent “tariff” when its comparable on U.S. products is … wait for it … 2.9 per cent (in a $30 trillion U.S. economy, Vietnam runs the grand total of a $123-billion trade surplus with the U.S.)? Thailand charges a 6.2 per cent tariff rate, and the U.S. just slammed it with a 36 per cent punitive “tariff.”

So, I must make this very clear. These are not really “tariffs” that are being imposed.These are actions aimed at completely eliminating the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with every country. That is why the “tariff” is really not that at all but rather a “ratio” of every country’s trade surplus with the U.S. divided by the exports of that country

they are ratios that are intended to cause trade deficits to go away entirely (depending on the elasticities). What that means is that every country can drop its tariff rate to zero, and it won’t matter because that will not cause the bilateral trade gaps to disappear –

And the question is, why? Because the president and his team believe that trade deficits are “subsidies,” pure and simple. And that, my friends, is patently absurd.

Again, to be clear, what the White House just unveiled are NOT “reciprocal” tariffs by a long shot. They are rooted in a misapprehension that trade deficits are “subsidies” (which the president keeps referencing when he talks about Canada). Which they are NOT.

I’ve actually come across people saying the US subsidizes Canada, as if they are bestowing charity on Canada- nothing could be further from the truth- Even this (me) financial neophyte understands this!

Why does the U.S. run trade deficits with so many countries, and why is it natural?

The United States is the largest and richest economy on the planet. This is all about the laws of large and small numbers. For small countries, it is next to impossible for them to import all that much given their smaller populations and GDP bases. For many countries, what they export to the U.S. may be big in relation to their economies but very small relative to the size of the U.S. market. The math just doesn’t work. There is no way they will be able to boost their imports sufficiently to cause a balance in bilateral trade.

Canada has about 1/10th of the population of the US, we cannot import from them like they can from us. Plus they consume vast quantities of our energy resources-

But more importantly, given the relative size of the U.S. to many other countries, it makes zero sense to expect anything but deficits with these nations. In other words, the law of large and small numbers here is going to make it next to impossible for every bilateral deficit to banish. A wholly unrealistic expectation.

The U.S. economy is built on consumerism. And there is a huge correlation between consumer spending and imports. No national sales tax and a system that encourages an extremely low personal savings rate. The rest of the world has no such culture and runs much higher savings rates.

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Please read the linked article entirely. There is so much more information to absorb. Below is the last little bit that will be included here.

The U.S. dollar is the reserve currency of the world. It is perfectly normal for the reserve currency country to be running current account deficits with other countries. Why? Because the status of trust and stability that comes with being the reserve currency leads to capital account surpluses. And these surpluses, because of the wealth and income streams they cause, flow through into a current account deficit via the import channel. The capital account drives the current account and, by definition, the balance-of-payments must balance. This, you never hear about despite the fact that it is an incontrovertible fact that the balance-of-payments must always balance.

As always, share some thoughts.

https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/bayesian-superyacht-robots-sonar-divers-deployed-pn8q6l7mx

Italy is providing special forces divers from a secretive unit of the Italian military– web archive link

Divers from an Italian navy special forces unit are searching the sunken yacht Bayesian for clues to why it went down in a storm off the coast of Sicily last month, killing seven.

About six divers from the Italian navy’s secretive Comsubin unit are combing the superyacht for electronic equipment — including data storage and CCTV footage — while checking to see if doors were left open.

“The investigating magistrate has asked Comsubin to investigate so he can check statements made by the crew of the yacht,” a source close to the investigation told The Times.

Wikipedia

The Italian Navy’s secretive Comsubin unit are combing the yacht for any electronic devices that might offer clues to why it sunk – as well as checking to see if any doors were left open on board.

The yacht’s captain and two British crew members are under investigation by Sicilian magistrates for their role in the August 19 sinking of the Bayesian, which now sits on the sea bed 50 metres down and half a mile outside the fishing port of Porticello. Seven of the 22 on board the 56-metre-long, $40 million yacht died including the British tech tycoon Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah.

The victims’ bodies were recovered by divers from Italy’s fire-fighting service before Comsubin divers moved in, supported by a navy minesweeper which has a decompression chamber to assist deep-dive operations and a high-speed vessel used to deploy the divers.

Trained for demining operations and the rescue of sailors from stricken submarines, the divers — whose identities are kept secret — hail from a small unit within Comsubin, which is the Italian navy equivalent of the British Special Boat Service.

This is a private yacht, that is alleged to have sunk in a storm. Mine sweepers and secret identity divers?

The hope is to raise the superyacht, eventually

Revton has employed Drafinsub, a Genoa-based diving company, to use sonar and a submersible robot to study the position and state of the Bayesian in order to plan how to raise it.

“With the robot we will video the hull to see how the yacht and its mast are positioned on the sea floor, while the sonar we have on a vessel can map the sea floor and check the position of the anchor and chain,” a Drafinsub official said.

Bad weather has delayed the start of the operation, which may get under way next week and will take two to three days to complete, he added. Once data is collected, Revton is expected to discuss with the local coastguard and investigating magistrates the best way to raise the Bayesian — either by using buoyancy balloons or by attaching ties to it and hoisting it to the surface.

Before that happens, 18,000 litres of fuel must be syphoned out of the yacht’s tanks in order to avoid any spillage and make the vessel lighter to lift.

https://www.standard.co.uk/showbiz/captain-glenn-shephard-below-deck-sailing-yacht-season-5-gary-king-lee-bayesian-b1180597.html

Boat enthusiasts have been eager to hear Shephard’s perspective on the tragic sinking of Bayesian, especially given his experience with Parsifal III, a superyacht from the same manufacturer. Although that’s where the two vessels similarities end, with Parsifal boasting two masts, not one. It also doesn't have a lifting keel, meaning stability is always at its maximum onboard.

Speaking of the tragedy, Shephard added: “I know there’s going to be questions, and I’m happy to address them, but I’m not going to speculate. All I can say is, my heart goes out to the family and loved ones of the people that perish. It’s a horrible tragedy, and I’ll also say it’s definitely a freak accident. You know anyone thinking about going out on a boat and worried that's going to happen - that doesn't happen and I couldn't believe that it could happen.

And yet it did.

What we’re talking about here is most likely yet another war lord/ Oligarch. Ukraine has or has had these same types individuals in leadership roles? Think of the Jewish/Ukrainian citizens, often dual nationals that fund the Nazi Azov/Adir battalions Ihor Kolomoysky

Billionaire, Business, Bankers, Warlords

Shady Private Armies Take the Field

In March, members of the private army backed by tycoon Ihor Kolomoisky showed up at the headquarters of the state-owned oil company, UkrTransNafta

Many of these paramilitary groups are accused of abusing the citizens they are charged with protecting. Amnesty International has reported that the Aidar battalion — also partially funded by Kolomoisky — committed war crimes, including illegal abductions, unlawful detention, robbery, extortion and even possible executions.

Azov and Aidar

Don’t worry, here in Canada we pretend these private armies don’t exist and aren’t committing all manner of horrendous abuses- Past or present.

So, what about this specific billionaire banker Ruben Vardianian who was fleeing hidden among those leaving Karabakh?

I’ve been digging into all manner of information since 2008. Actually longer than that, but, officially, that’s when my first, now censored by big tech site started me down the path of auto didactic learning, in earnest.

After those many years of reading and writing and reading and writing more… one begins to see repeating patterns- persons, behaviours- different names and places but nearly always the same scenarios

Who is Ruben Vardianian?

Ruben Vardianian is not a Russian Citizen. The obfuscating media is implying he is but that does not seem to be the case. He is an Armenian Citizen for certain. Wonder if he holds citizenship with any other nation?

Perhaps the US?- He studied at Harvard, allegedly

Vardanyan met Noubar Afeyan, a Boston-based entrepreneur of Armenian heritage, while studying at Harvard.

Coincidentally, Ruben Vardianian got wealthy plundering the former Soviet Union after the fall, alongside an American banker. The timing is impeccable. Well connected. Right place, right time and all that.

Troika Dialog’s Founder Ruben Vardanian on Building Russia’s First Investment Bank

Troika Dialog, founded in 1991. Its subsidiary, Troika Dialog USA, an SEC-regulated firm based in New York, serves Western institutional clients. Ruben K. Vardanian is president and CEO of Troika Dialog. In 1991, at age 22, he and a small group of Russian students specializing in finance, along with American banker Peter Derby, founded Troika Dialog, Russia’s first investment bank.

Ruben Vardanian, former Troika Dialog CEO: a grumbling optimist

Ronald Freeman was head of banking at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in the 1990s after the break-up of the Soviet Union when he first worked with Ruben Vardanian; 

So, at the age of just 22 Ruben Vardanian fortuitously stumbles in banking, alongside a prominent American Banker. In Russia. After the fall of the USSR. He’s a humanitarian of some sort as well. And this humanitarian, billionaire, banker, businessman who happens to be well connected somehow ends up leading the break away bunch in Nagarno Karabakh.

This guy is right place, right time, all the time! However, his luck may have run out… for now.

Azerbaijan arrests Armenian billionaire fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh

Russian-Armenian billionaire Ruben Vardanyan, who briefly held a top political job in the self-proclaimed state of Nagorno-Karabakh, has been arrested while attempting to leave the breakaway enclave, after Azerbaijan seized control of the region. The former banking executive, who has ties to Russian oligarchs and politicians but moved to Karabakh last year, was arrested by Azerbaijani security services as he was making his way out of the mountainous region alongside thousands of refugees.

During this time, Vardanyan, who served for four months as state minister of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh until February this year, remained inside the tiny enclave.

More than 50,000 people have fled to Armenia in the past four days, exiting through a border checkpoint set up by Azerbaijan during the blockade. Most have exited with ease, but fears remain widespread that border guards are seeking out and could detain members of Karabakh’s elite. Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev last week described the Karabakh elite as a “criminal junta” and said those who had committed war crimes would be “brought to justice”.

Not a Russian citizen

Dmitry Peskov, Russian president Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, said on Wednesday that Moscow was prepared to defend Vardanyan’s rights if he were still a Russian citizen, but added it would be “another matter” if the oligarch had given up his Russian passport. A spokesperson for Vardanyan confirmed that the businessman was a citizen of Armenia but not of Russia. Vardanyan relinquished his Russian passport and arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh shortly before the blockade began last year. In November, he was appointed its first minister.

Vardanyan attempted to overthrow the leadership in Karabakh

The billionaire’s move to Nagorno-Karabakh, however, was part of plans to burnish his influence in Armenian politics, according to three people familiar with the matter. Armenia was largely ruled by members of a Karabakh clan in the first decades after the Soviet Union’s collapse before current prime minister Nikol Pashinyan swept to office in a velvet revolution in 2018. Within a few months of Vardanyan’s appointment as state minister, Nagorno-Karabakh’s de facto president dismissed him — the result, according to two of the people, of the billionaire’s failed attempt to seize power in a coup.

The ministry spokesperson said there had been no contact with Vardanyan since Tuesday. Azerbaijan’s border service said Vardanyan was “detained at the Lachin exit point on the state border”. “He was brought to Baku,” the agency added, and “has been handed over to the relevant state authorities”.

Truth is always so much stranger than fiction