Read what Sergei Lavrov states:

Link

Armenia and Azerbaijan initialed a bilateral peace treaty during talks between their leaders hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on August 8. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian also pledged to give the United States exclusive rights to a transit corridor to Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan exclave that would pass through Armenia’s strategic Syunik region

Initialed but not signed- It was all for the show. Pashinian pledged exclusive rights- Azerbaijan did not.

Trump, Pashinian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claimed that these agreements put an end to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

Trump claimed that. The other 2, not quite.

We need to see how [the deal] will work because all the ecstatic reviews that were heard in the first few days after the meeting in Washington then somehow changed to skeptical assessments when the document was published,” said Lavrov. “And as it turns out, not everything was agreed upon there.”

Exactly as I’d reported!

Lavrov suggested that the White House talks touted by Trump as yet another foreign policy achievement of the current U.S. administration were first and foremost a publicity stunt.

“I think that such a method [of foreign policy making] has the right to exist, but if nothing follows it, then it will simply remain a flash in the pan,” he said. “But we are interested in a real peace treaty being concluded.”

Lavrov similarly said that Armenia and Azerbaijan reached in Washington the kind of agreements that they already negotiated together with Russia in 2020-2022.

As mentioned by yours truly!

Baku continues to make the signing of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty, initialed at the White House, on a change of Armenia’s constitution. Also, the two sides have yet to agree on or at least publicize crucial details of what they call the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.

I get that I’m a bit of an outlier from an alternative perspective, but, my track record has been pretty good!

I’m going to relink the recent posts covering this flash in a pan diplomacy. Including a link back to the actual signed 2020 peace agreement

From August 08/25

Again, Vainglory, Trump is they alternative name

Trump claims to have reached ‘historic’ peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan

All western/5 eyes media ignored the historic agreement when it actually did happen, 5 years ago, because the peace was made under the guidance of the Russian leadership- And the West can’t have this truth, this reality, known globally.

‘Scuse my railings but, Trump is a raving lunatic, who through his bombastic and incessant rantings is endangering us all, globally. That is honestly the way I feel about his piss poor leadership!

To quote my husband, “Trump is reckless”

As I’d explained previously and rehashed in a recent post- Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a peace agreement in 2020. That’s the first Trump lie. I’m going to relink the news about that agreement

Territorial claims contained in Armenian Constitution today prevented signing of peace agreement – President Ilham Aliyev

BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 9. The territorial claims contained in the Constitution of Armenia today prevented the signing of a peace agreement, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said in an interview with local media, Trend reports.

Apparently something was initialed with signatures yet to come

Since Azerbaijan and Armenia have already initialed a peace agreement, its official signing should not take long, said President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev during an interview with the Azerbaijani press in Washington

Armenia will have to amend their constitution

When a peace agreement is signed, every issue must be resolved, and the baseless territorial claims against us must be removed. Therefore, I have no doubts regarding this matter,” President Ilham Aliyev emphasized

Alieyev is contradicting Trump’s claim- Trump said the peace agreement was signed. Azeri President said it wasn’t signed because of Armenian territorial claims, that will necessitate a consitutional change on the part of Armenia.- but it was initialed to be signed in the future- at some time.

I’ll update when there is more news- That said it seemed doubtful to me there was any type of real agreement- Trump is really pushing the idea that he should be given a Nobel Peace Prize? Which is as bogus a prize as one can imagine. Trump winning one would carry on the tradition of sham winners being awarded perception managing prizes so all these undeserving cretins will be remembered as something they are not! That includes Obama. Or as I liked to call him Obomba!

Link– from Azeri media Caliber

According to Armenian media, during a meeting with residents of Syunik (Zangezur), he stated the following: “If we can open the gates of Syunik—I mean the opportunities of those 43 kilometres—then you can be sure that the future will offer us great prospects for development. The ‘Crossroads of Peace’ is very well received by the international community.

First of all, what did Khachaturyan mean by the “opportunity of 43 kilometres”? Given the ending of his tirade—“Our goal is to sign a peace agreement in the near future”—he was referring to the Zangezur Corridor. But then, what does the much-touted “Crossroads of Peace” have to do with this? It’s a complete logical fallacy and a glaring absence of common sense. Let’s break it down further.

The Zangezur Corridor is a transport route intended to connect mainland Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through Zangezur—a provision clearly laid out in Point 9 of the trilateral statement signed on November 10, 2020, which was personally endorsed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The corridor is planned to include both road and railway links, and in the future, it could become part of the Middle Corridor—an international trade route connecting Asia and Europe via the Caspian Sea. The creation of the Zangezur Corridor is supported by both Azerbaijan and Türkiye, and even two countries that can hardly be called allies—Russia and the United States—back the project.

At my former site- I have a post on this agreement- The TRILATERAL agreement was signed between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia- The link is still viable and is below;

11 point peace plan from 2020 (nearly 5 years ago)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, during one of his press conferences, spoke in considerable detail on the subject, noting in particular: “It is very unfortunate that such a practical and beneficial thing as the opening of a route through Zangezur for Armenia still remains only on paper. It is Armenia that is facing difficulties in implementing the opening of the transport corridor.”

Moreover, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made several statements regarding the U.S. initiative—characteristically contradictory in tone. Initially, he declared that the option proposed by Ambassador Tom Barrack—regarding the potential transfer of a section of Armenian territory under the control of a third party—was unacceptable and legally impossible. But, as the saying goes, it wasn’t long before he changed his stance. At a subsequent press conference, he confirmed that discussions had indeed taken place on transferring control of the Zangezur Corridor to a private company representing a third party.

Interestingly, at the time, the Spanish outlet Periodista Digital reported that it had obtained a secret memorandum concerning the Zangezur Corridor, allegedly signed between Armenia and the United States.

As I’d mentioned previously- any agreement regarding this corridor was most likely favoured only by Armenia.

Keep in mind I’m quoting from an Azerbaijani media outlet

Overall, the U.S. initiative concerning the Zangezur Corridor once again confirms that this project lies within the sphere of interest of major global players—and not only for economic reasons. The point is that the corridor plays a critical role in the current era of global order transformation. Specifically, the U.S. interest is motivated, among other things, by Washington’s desire, first, to weaken Moscow’s position in the South Caucasus region; second, to undermine the interests of Iran, which is well known for its opposition to the implementation of the corridor; and third, to use the issue of the Zangezur Corridor to push forward Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations, ultimately leading to a peace agreement under the auspices of the American track.

Azerbaijan understands that the US will use the issue of the corridor to influence negotiation with an attempt to implement an agreement that is favourable to Pax Americana

As for the Zangezur Corridor, Azerbaijan’s position remains unwavering, grounded in international law and on the commitments made by Armenia itself. As Ilham Aliyev stated at the III Shusha Global Media Forum, if Armenia continues to block the process related to the opening of the Zangezur Corridor, its chances of ever becoming a transit country are approaching zero.

“Unfortunately, no work has been done on the Armenian side in the last five years, as this issue is deliberately removed from the agenda. But under such circumstances, the chances for Armenia to ever become a transit country are close to zero. If they continue to block this process, I think that they will find themselves not only in transport isolation, which they already are in today, but also in political isolation to a certain extent,” the president said.

Unless America steps in. Which is what Armenia is wanting. Which is why Armenia is and has been stalling.

These words from the President of Azerbaijan, directed clearly at Yerevan, also serve as a clear message to the international community: Armenia is the main stumbling block to realising important processes in a geopolitically significant region such as the South Caucasus, where the interests of global powers intersect.

Below is an oped from CommonSpace.eu, 22 July 2025
Onnik James Krikorian

For the first time in 31 years of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the situation feels more unpredictable than ever. In the past, there was a grim certainty that another war would erupt just as it did in September 2020 while peace, on the other hand, always seemed distant. In recent weeks, comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that it was almost a done deal simply solicited disagreement among analysts and political commentators. As if that wasn’t confusion enough, and although both Baku and Yerevan have said that the 10 July meeting between the leaders in Abu Dhabi was constructive, another issue has emerged unexpectedly to distract and deflect attention.

What began seemingly as speculation by a prominent U.S. think tank on 1 July now appears to be gaining traction. Washington might have proposed that an American company manage any transit route from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan, running through Armenia, as envisaged by the November 2020 ceasefire statement. The situation was further muddled by the article in question appearing more focused on the need for Washington to push Ankara to open its border in the north.

However, the southern route, referred to as the “Zangezur Corridor” in Azerbaijan and Turkiye, would place the U.S. in direct proximity to Iran and Russian FSB border guards deployed in precisely the same area. Tehran has consistently warned that it will not tolerate any geopolitical changes on its border. The original article also suggested that an anonymous U.S. official opined that President Trump could win a Nobel Peace Prize if he helped facilitate the route.

This idea of Trump winning a Nobel Peace Prize for anything is deranged

This raised eyebrows given that several other ethnic Armenian commentators had pushed the same incentive of the coveted prize, though not guaranteed, since the beginning of June if he were to support Armenia’s position on unblocking regional communications. Again, the main focus was convincing or even pressuring Turkiye to open its border with Armenia before an agreement to normalise relations between Baku and Yerevan is signed. Ankara currently refuses to do so unless one is.

Recall my saying if anyone wanted the US involved in this area it was Armenia after having made a sharp turn towards the west. Not Turkey, or Iran. Not Azerbaijan. Not Russia.

However, the southern route, referred to as the “Zangezur Corridor” in Azerbaijan and Turkiye, would place the U.S. in direct proximity to Iran and Russian FSB border guards deployed in precisely the same area. Tehran has consistently warned that it will not tolerate any geopolitical changes on its border. The original article also suggested that an anonymous U.S. official opined that President Trump could win a Nobel Peace Prize if he helped facilitate the route.

This raised eyebrows given that several other ethnic Armenian commentators had pushed the same incentive of the coveted prize, though not guaranteed, since the beginning of June if he were to support Armenia’s position on unblocking regional communications. Again, the main focus was convincing or even pressuring Turkiye to open its border with Armenia before an agreement to normalise relations between Baku and Yerevan is signed. Ankara currently refuses to do so unless one is. (Ankara will not open the border until there is an agreement between Baku and Yerevan)

The articles also suggested that such a move could isolate Iran in the region, sideline Russia, and contain emerging Chinese ambitions. For many analysts in Armenia and Azerbaijan, this potential geopolitical escalation is precisely what the current bilateral track, suggested first by Baku in October 2023, sought to avoid. Since then there has reportedly been greater progress than earlier attempts by the EU, U.S., and Russia since 2021. All three had previously been criticised in the past.

The intention was to avoid the geopolitical escalation. First suggested by Baku, to avoid isolating Iran, sidelining Russia and containing China. Yet, Armenia has been working with the Americans, including promoting a potential Nobel Peace Prize for Trump- Sounds just like Netanyahu.

Domestically, Pashinyan appears increasingly determined to remove the Russian FSB from the same route the U.S. would oversee. The recent move against Samvel Karapetyan, an Armenian-Russian oligarch, has also been seen similarly. Pashinyan threatened to nationalise the electricity distribution network the businessman controls. This echoed an idea offered by a Yerevan analyst over a year ago that nationalising the Armenia-Iran gas pipeline could wrest it from Moscow’s control.

Meanwhile, both Azerbaijan and Turkiye reportedly oppose the U.S. proposal. At the weekend, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reiterated that Baku expects unhindered transit through Armenia and that it will not permit a U.S. company to operate on its own territory. He further stated that Armenia would not become a transit country, likely a reference to Pashinyan’s ambiguous “Crossroads of Peace” proposal introduced as an alternative to Baku’s “Zangezur Corridor.”

AA-

Back to the CommonSpaceoped

In parallel, pro-Pashinyan voices on social media have ramped up pressure on Washington, urging sanctions against Baku if it rejects the U.S. deal. They also continue to press the U.S. to pressure Ankara to open the Armenia-Turkiye border before the peace treaty is signed. Aliyev instead revealed that Baku prefers to initial the agreement until the two main sticking points are resolved

Moreover, there is little clarity on whether Washington intends to pursue this plan while other Armenian commentators suggest it is less about logistics and more about the U.S. taking on the role of a security guarantor, not unlike its recent deal with Ukraine on minerals. At least one Azerbaijani analyst believes this a trap set by Yerevan to sour Baku’s relations with Moscow further.

There are several more paragraphs to be read from the oped- Find them at the opening link.

Last written about in January of this year

We’ve also recently touched on the Armenia/Azeri situation and control of the pivotal, crucial corridor

GISReports

Some excerpts below, read entirely at the link directly above

U.S. eyes greater influence in the South Caucasus

The South Caucasus, comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, has been a focal point for geopolitical tensions for many years. Russia has historically played a strong role in influencing this region. The current administration of President Donald Trump sees both opportunities and challenges in deepening the United States’ engagement there and in Central Asia, where energy and critical resources are in relative abundance. With China’s expanding reach and assertive moves by Russia and Iran, Washington has strong incentives to bolster its presence

Russia’s war in Ukraine shapes South Caucasus geopolitics

In recent years, Russia’s role as the main mediator and security provider in the South Caucasus has diminished, largely due to its ongoing war in Ukraine, the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War and the 2022-2023 Blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh. The outcome of Russia’s war on Ukraine will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in South Caucasus dynamics.

To maintain its military efforts, Moscow has redirected resources from the region to the front in Ukraine. Furthermore, Russia has relied heavily on trade to bypass sanctions and market restrictions imposed by Western countries. According to a 2024 report by Oxford Economics, Moscow draws on:

A re-routing of trade flows to circumvent EU restrictions on the shipment of goods by Russian companies and sanctions against Russian financial institutions. … Furthermore, some ex-Soviet Union countries are expanding their manufacturing sectors to export more to Russia, thereby exploiting gaps left by the departure of Western companies from the Russian market.

Russia relies on the region as an avenue to bypass Western sanctions and, as a result, benefits from the status quo. Each of the three countries has pursued a distinct path, leading them to consider how the outcome of the war in Ukraine might shape Russia’s future plans for reengagement in the South Caucasus, the Caspian Basin and Moscow’s ability to reassert its sphere of influence.

Political turmoil in Georgia as Russian influence remains

Georgia, situated at the intersection of Europe and Asia, has faced significant political instability in recent years, marked by contested elections and prolonged public protests against the government, which is led by the pro-Kremlin Georgian Dream Party. Despite these challenges, the government’s policies – heavily shaped by billionaire and former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, the country’s wealthiest individual and a figure sanctioned by the U.S. and some European countries – aim to maintain relations with Russia and China.

Despite a history of strained relations, the U.S. has significant interests in Georgia. The country plays a crucial role in the Middle Corridor, linking Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus with the Black Sea, Europe and Turkey. The development of these corridors enhances global supply chain resilience and limits opportunities for China, Iran and Russia to interfere.

As a littoral state, Georgia could help maintain a free and open Black Sea. However, Russia, since invading Georgia in 2008, occupies 20 percent of the country’s territory, namely the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Additionally, Moscow is building a new Russian naval base in Abkhazia.

Washington has raised apprehensions about China’s involvement in Georgia’s Anaklia deep-water port situated on the eastern edge of the Black Sea, citing security, political and economic implications. Meanwhile, Tehran is actively developing a North-South Corridor connecting Russia to Iran through Georgia, a route that could reduce the regime’s vulnerability to economic and political isolation from the U.S.

Armenia’s shift toward Western alliances

The present Armenian government is clearly distancing itself from the country’s longstanding alignment with Moscow, pursuing closer ties with Europe and the U.S. In April, the government enacted a law establishing a legal basis for the South Caucasus nation to progress toward EU membership. In early 2025, Armenia signed a strategic partnership charter with the U.S. Since 2021, the EU and Armenia have been party to the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. Meanwhile, the country upholds trade and diplomatic relations with Moscow and Tehran, while striving to reopen its closed borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Armenia also enjoys cordial relations with Georgia, which has facilitated several trilateral efforts with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The strategic objectives of Armenia’s current government align closely with U.S. interests. Armenia’s pivot toward a pro-Western stance, its efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan and normalize relations with Turkey can significantly enhance regional stability if maintained and built upon.

This is critical for the development of the Middle Corridor (also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route or Central Asia-Caspian-Caucasus Corridor), which aims to link Chinese and European markets via Central Asia and the Caucasus. The corridor advances U.S. goals by offering regional countries a trade alternative to the North-South corridor from Russia to Iran. The route can foster diversified supply chains, open new markets, and secure energy and resource access for Western countries, while limiting the influence of Russia and Iran. Moreover, in parallel with its new critical minerals agreement with Kyiv, the U.S. is also actively pursuing mining and processing agreements in Armenia, as part of its global strategy to counter China’s dominance in rare earths and critical minerals production.

The Trump administration is likely to continue constructive engagement with Armenia.

Included above is half of the information available at the GIS link

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2020/11/nagorno-karabakh-russia-turkey-have.html?zx=91cd0ee4eb7f3434

Friday, November 13, 2020

Nagorno Karabakh: “Russia , Turkey Have Common Objectives in Karabakh” as MOU signed

Oddly enough I was the only independent thinking, alternative blogger that saw this cooperation as a possibility.

Back nearly 3 weeks ago.

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2020/10/3rd-ceasefire-faltering-in-nagarno.html?zx=698cd6aa2746c14f

“-Possible Outcomes?

1- Western Imperial Powers will Recognize “Artsakh” Talked about this here previously. This move will certainly set the region alight!

2– Turkey and Russia will send peace keepers in. The issue of territory will be settled once and for all. The same type of cooperation as we see in Syria. Iran may participate as well.

An Astana 2.0 if you like?”

   Too much irrationality. Too much bias, dare I say racism? Hatred? Not sure. On the part of alleged objective, independent thinkers. That’s how it appears. 

 Speaking for myself. I’m preferring diplomacy to blood letting. Turkey and Russia cooperating keeps NATO off kilter on one hand, while balancing international/global affairs on the other.

• Memorandum of Understanding Signed- Similar views and intent to continue cooperating.

Russia and Turkey have a common objective in the Upper Karabakh region to monitor the peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia that ended weeks of armed conflict, Russia’s foreign minister said on Thursday.

“We agreed with our Turkish partners to establish an observation center on the territory of Azerbaijan, which will not be located near the conflict zone,” Sergey Lavrov told a news conference.

Responding to a question by an Anadolu Agency reporter on Turkey’s efforts for ending the conflict through diplomacy, he noted that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin have held several phone calls and share similar views on the issue.

He said Moscow will continue cooperating with Ankara in other areas, including Syria, adding that they were interested in solving problems at their borders and across the world.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said earlier on Thursday that Ankara will play an equally important role as Moscow in monitoring the peace deal through the peacekeeping center in Upper Karabakh.

A memorandum of understanding (MoU) setting up a joint Turkish-Russian center to monitor the peace deal was signed on Wednesday morning.

As some Armenians vacate the occupied territories they are burning homes, schools etc.

Macron and Pashinian talk

“French President Macron says ready to assist in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement
The presidential press office reported in a statement early on Friday that President Macron held a telephone conversation with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan

Macron’s ready to assist now? Where was he before? Making trouble that's where he was.

 I trust Macron the least of nearly every political leader. Save for Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland. Macron is more meglomaniacal and duplicitous then Erdogan could ever aspire to be. Through my media based observations I find Erdogan, like Putin,  more diplomacy oriented. The are both very pragmatic leaders.
Macron has enjoyed an incredible free pass from the main stream and alternative media! He doesn’t deserve that level of obfuscation delivered on his behalf. The role of a Macron led France in the destruction of Syria, gets a free pass, though France shares no border with Syria. Unlike Turkey, which does mean they do have legitimate border/territorial security concerns. France does not.  Then there was the whole sale destruction of Libya, brought on by a Sarkozy led France (Turkey was not involved)  What’s with that so called anti empire media? Why the free pass for France? Speaking of Libya the love affair the alt media has with Haftar is incredible.  Incredibly disturbing that is.

Interesting excerpts from a 2019 report

Economic Cost-Imposing Measures

Expanding U.S. energy production would stress Russia’s economy, potentially constraining its government budget and, by extension, its defense spending. By adopting policies that expand world supply and depress global prices, the United States can limit Russian revenue. Doing so entails little cost or risk, produces second-order benefits for the U.S. economy, and does not need multilateral endorsement.

Already in action

Imposing deeper trade and financial sanctions would also likely degrade the Russian economy, especially if such sanctions are comprehensive and multilateral. Thus, their effectiveness will depend on the willingness of other countries to join in such a process. But sanctions come with costs and, depending on their severity, considerable risks.

Already in action

Increasing Europe’s ability to import gas from suppliers other than Russia could economically extend Russia and buffer Europe against Russian energy coercion.

Already in action

Providing lethal aid to Ukraine would exploit Russia’s greatest point of external vulnerability. But any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages.

Enacted years ago– With Trump making the first substantive provisions, as mentioned here and acknowledged by Trump

Increasing support to the Syrian rebels could jeopardize other U.S. policy priorities, such as combating radical Islamic terrorism, and could risk further destabilizing the entire region

Despite the risks the US did do just that. One would assume the US is okay with the region being destabilized.

Expanding ties in the South Caucasus—competing economically with Russia—would be difficult because of geography and history.

Ongoing with Armenia (successful) and Georgia (still a work in progress)

Of course, read the rest at the link provided.

I have zero doubt that this journalist spook, never really a journalist, was backed by western money- Like USAID and NED, in fact, I have reports to this effect at my old site. His velvet revolution was funded by western backed NGO’s as well

Also see this

Pashinyan, NED President Discuss “Fostering Democracy”

Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan and National Endowment for Democracy President Damon Wilson met today in Yerevan and discussed potential cooperation between the U.S. Congress funded organization and the Armenian government.

Pashinyan, according to a statement released by his office, said strengthening democracy in Armenia is one of the priorities of his administration and thanked the United States for its support in the field.

Pashinyan Courts Trump in Washington

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is concluding a week-long visit to the US, marking his first trip there since President Donald Trump assumed office.

Pashinyan departed for the US on Monday.

On Thursday, he met with Vice President JD Vance, with whom he discussed Armenian–US relations and updates on the South Caucasus.

Previously, on Tuesday, Pashinyan delivered a speech at the Atlantic Council, a US think-tank, discussing the peace process with Azerbaijan and the role the US could play in the process. He additionally said that the peace process required ‘persistent work, to be creative, to be active, not giving up, and continuously work on creating what you need’.

Pashinyan still claimed, however, that peace was ‘within reach’, and that ‘perhaps additional, or real, efforts’ by the Trump administration would have an effect on the talks.

Nerses Kopalyan, an associate professor of political science at the University of Nevada, told OC Media that Pashinyan assumed that direct pressure from the White House can ‘secure peace in the region […] in the same way direct pressure led to the solution of the hostage crisis in the Middle East and direct pressure is their approach on Ukraine’.

Kopalyan said that he believed Pashinyan thinks that Trump’s foreign policy agenda ‘seeks to proceed with a peace mandate’, and that ‘including the South Caucasus as part of this framework is the additional effort’.

Trump does not intend to seek a peace mandate. And Pashinyan knows this for a fact

Keeping in mind the latest reporting regarding the attempted assassination of the Slovakian leader is not looking like a “lone wolf”

We know the name of the person from the EU- it’s included below

Euractive

In what Kobakhidze called a “horrific threat,” the unnamed EU official had referred to a recent assassination attempt on Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and told him to “be very careful”.

The Georgian prime minister did not disclose which Commissioner he was referring to. “For the purpose of prevention, I considered myself obliged to provide information about this threat to the Georgian society,” wrote Kobakhidze.

“The parallel drawn with the attempt to kill Robert Fico reminds us that in the form of a global war party, we are dealing with an extremely dangerous force that will do anything to bring chaos to Georgia,” he added.

According to the Georgian Dream (GD) party narrative, there is a ‘Global war party’, which for them refers to forces working to involve Georgia in Ukraine’s war with Russia and to open a ‘second front’ on Georgian territory.

There are forces looking to involve Georgia in the ongoing fight between Russia and Ukraine. If fact some Georgian persons openly protested on behalf of Ukraine. In Georgia. Western NGO’s have been present for a very long time in Georgia. And then there is the Georgia/Armenia axis and potential destabilization of Russia’s border

Georgian Dream politicians have over the past year used the narrative mostly to discredit Western politicians or civil society actors critical of the government’s actions, without naming who allegedly belongs to the named group.

In a statement published on Thursday evening, Enlargement Commissioner Várhelyi said his phone conversation with Kobakhidze had been “not just fully taken out of context but was also presented to the public in a way which could give rise to a complete misinterpretation of the originally intended aim of my phone call”.

Várhelyi said he had attempted to warn Kobakhidze “not to enflame further the already fragile situation by adopting this law which could lead to further polarisation and to possible uncontrolled situations on the streets of Tbilisi”.

Attempted to warn Kobakhidze? By threatening him? Perhaps it was you know a “friendly warning”? A warning from a friend.? But, not received as such?

He also said he had reiterated the EU’s call for the controversial ‘foreign agent’ bill to be withdrawn.

Trippin’ down memory lane

Images that should still be accessible at the links showed pro Ukraine protestors/protests in Georgia- Yup, NYPost images from Georgia-

Iran's diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan are improving, while ties with Armenia are strained.
Tehran seeks to maintain a balanced approach and avoid siding firmly with any one country in the Caucasus.
The evolving geopolitical landscape, including tensions with Israel and Russia's role, influences Iran's strategy in the region.

Two major developments in recent years – Azerbaijan’s reconquest (retrieval/return) of Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia’s unprovoked (provoked) invasion of Ukraine – created new diplomatic openings for Iran. The changed geopolitical environment has enabled Iran and Azerbaijan to smooth over what for much of the post-Soviet period had been a prickly relationship. At the same time, Iran’s traditionally tight ties with Armenia are coming under increasing strain. But both bilateral relationships remain prone to sudden twists.

In March, the foreign ministers of Iran and Azerbaijan, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Jeyhun Bayramov, met on the margins of the meeting of the Organization of Islamic Conference in Saudi Arabia, agreeing on a return of Azerbaijani diplomatic personnel to Tehran. Baku had withdrawn its diplomats after an armed attack on the embassy in early 2023 that left an Azerbaijani citizen dead. (An Iranian court has reportedly sentenced the main suspect to death as a price for a full resumption of diplomatic ties.)

The diplomatic reengagement occurred not long after Baku and Tehran lanced another boil of tension, signing an agreement last fall to construct a rail link known as the Aras corridor. The route will connect mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via Iranian territory.

Azerbaijan had earlier sought to build a more direct route, known as the Zangezur corridor, by securing extraterritorial rights from Armenia. Iran had opposed Zangezur out of concern it would create a barrier to Iranian-Armenian trade.

While Iranian-Azerbaijani relations are presently on a roll, Iranian-Armenian ties have hit some potholes.

On the same day in March that the Azerbaijani and Iranian foreign ministers were restoring full diplomatic relations, Armenia’s defense minister, Suren Papikyan, visited Tehran for meetings with top Iranian officials, who delivered a firm warning that Yerevan should not grow too close to “extra-regional parties.” The phrasing was a clear reference to Yerevan’s recent cultivation of security ties with Western powers, including as France and United States. Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan acknowledged tensions with Tehran.

Other geopolitical factors are pushing Tehran and Yerevan in divergent directions. First, tensions in the Middle East connected with the Israel-Hamas conflict have raised the possibility of a widening of warfare to involve Iranian allies and perhaps even Iran itself. This has prompted Tehran to hedge risks by taking steps to ensure calm on its northern border. Given Azerbaijan’s close security (just how close is this relationship, I read claims, but these claims are always lacking details) relationship with Israel, the last thing Iran needs is an opening of another front – all the more so as Baku’s hawkish allies in Washington and Jerusalem have consistently sought to weaponize Iran’s sizeable Azeri population against Tehran.

Armenia also has experienced a rapid deterioration in relations with Russia, due to the widespread perception of Armenians that Moscow failed to live up to its security commitments to Yerevan during the most recent phase of the Karabakh conflict. As a result, Armenia is striving to diversify its foreign partners, in particular Western powers.

Armenia’s recently voiced intention to apply for membership in the European Union stands to be a lasting irritant in Yerevan’s ties to Tehran. The accession process would require Armenia to make major changes to bring its foreign policy into alignment with Brussels. Among such requirements would be the scrapping of Armenia’s visa-free regime with Iran, and the reorienting of Yerevan’s trade away from the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union, with which Iran has signed a free trade agreement.

The souring of Armenian-Russian relations sharply contrasts with Tehran’s own strengthening ties with Moscow, a trend driven in part by the development of the North-South trade route, which helps Russia mitigate the impact of Western sanctions. The expansion of such trade encourages closer cooperation between Iran and Azerbaijan to facilitate the transit of Russia-bound goods.

As two heavily sanctioned countries, Iran and Russia are drawn together by a sense of “inter-pariah solidarity”. Iran has supplied Russia with drones that the latter deployed against Ukraine. In exchange, Iran expects Russia to play a vital role in an upgrade of its air defense systems. In 2023, Russia overtook China as the main foreign investor in Iran. Conversely, prospects for Iran’s engagement with the West have diminished.

Despite the warming Baku ties and the diplomatic knuckle-rap of Yerevan, it would be premature to assume that Tehran is intent on altering its Caucasus policy to firmly side with Azerbaijan at Armenia’s expense. Iran does not look at Caucasus geopolitics as a zero-sum game. Iranian officials, for example, still consistently voice support for Armenia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Even as Tehran pursues normalization with Baku, Iranian officials are determined to do all they can to keep the country’s trade route to Armenia open and flowing.

As Armenia moves ever closer to the US and French, Iran will alter it’s policy more and more. Not that they will be entirely exclusionary of Armenia but there will be less and less cooperation.