A Trump imposed bad deal. What is that exactly. Is that a frozen conflict? A negotiated settlement? Or a continuation of the status quo. Trump is not entirely innocent, nor is he entirely guilty. But perceptions must be managed, always. That said, I don’t think Trump will let this fight go- I don’t believe he ever intended to do that. My suspicion is the narrative will change.

Washington Post via archive.ph

Pay particular attention to the words used in this piece. Yes, I’ve omitted some paragraphs to keep this to a reasonable read- Take the entire piece in at the link above

A settlement that dismembers Ukraine and rewards Putin will undermine U.S. credibility.

Ukraine is losing territory, troops and time. The next few weeks will determine whether Ukraine can continue to exist as a sovereign state within its preinvasion borders, or close to them, with full security guarantees for its citizens — or whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will be rewarded and emboldened in his war of territorial expansion.

How this conflict is resolved will have ramifications far beyond Ukraine, belying the notion expressed by some — including American isolationists — that this is Europe’s problem. At stake is the credibility of the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which immediately aided Ukraine after Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion and vowed to continue their support “as long as it takes” to defeat Russia’s aggression.

Ukraine is not a NATO member, so the pledge was not codified in treaty guarantees but contingent on political will in Washington and European capitals. A pullback now would convey that the United States and its allies lack staying power and that their promises come time-stamped as valid only until the next election date. How might China take such a message as its autocratic president, Xi Jinping, contemplates whether to make a military move to try to seize the self-governing democratic island of Taiwan?

Ukrainians have so far valiantly resisted Mr. Putin’s attempts to absorb the country into his reimagined Russian empire. They have done so while often being forced to fight with severe limits because of the indecision and vacillation from the Biden administration over which advanced weapons systems to send Ukraine, as well as how, and how quickly, and they could be used. Ukraine eventually received advanced fighter jets, modern Western tanks and long-range missiles. But much of the weaponry came after months of needless delay, giving Russia time to consolidate its battlefield gains.

Now Russian troops are slogging across the Donbas region, making incremental advances and seizing more ground than at any time since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Russia controls about 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and is inching farther west each day, particularly around Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Ukrainian soldiers who occupied the Russian Kursk region in August have also lost about 40 percent of the land they seized in their surprise offensive and risk being surrounded as Russian troops, backed by North Koreans, advance while suffering heavy casualties.

Ukraine is also losing troops at a rate far beyond what it can sustain and continue fighting. The official casualty estimate of 400,000 killed or wounded is considered a vast undercount. Thousands of exhausted Ukrainian soldiers are deserting the front lines.

Yet time is the most important commodity that Ukraine is losing.
President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20 and has promised to end the war quickly, but he has offered no specific details of a plan. Mr. Trump has made contradictory statements, saying he would cut aid to Ukraine, but not abandon the country altogether.

The other time constraint for Ukraine is a growing weariness in Europe and a desire to find an end to the conflict that is devouring many of the continent’s scarce military hardware stocks. Europeans are quietly shifting to the idea of negotiations based on a “land-for-peace” formula as the best way to resolve the war in the event of a U.S. aid cutoff. There is political uncertainty in Germany, one of Ukraine’s staunchest defenders under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who faces a difficult reelection bid in February. And far-right parties, often more amenable to Moscow, are in the ascendancy.

Ukraine can hardly survive another year of this devastating war. But the haste to find a negotiated settlement could produce a bad one that would reward Mr. Putin for his land grab and guarantee he will launch a new attack for more territory once he has a chance to rebuild his depleted arsenal. A poor settlement would also leave Ukrainians bitter after seeing their homes, schools and factories destroyed, and friends and family members killed. Much of their anger would be directed at the Western backers who betrayed them. This is a fight America, and Ukraine, cannot lose, especially with a bad deal.

Lowy Institute

Quick solutions will prove elusive

Should Trump not be able to achieve a quick solution in the Ukraine war, he could well turn on Putin and increase US support to Ukraine.

I don’t think Trump can achieve a quick solution. Not sure that he wants one. And I’m sure he will turn on Russia, led by Putin, or any other leader.

Trump’s obsession with Greenland, suggest very clearly to me, he intends to push Russia and push on them hard!

Russia has always been a target of western powers, including in the Arctic

US Department of State

In today’s actions, the Department of State is targeting two entities and two vessels connected to attempts to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S.-sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project. The Department is sanctioning Gotik Energy Shipping Co (Gotik) and Plio Energy Cargo Shipping OPC PVT LTD (Plio Energy). Gotik and Plio Energy are the registered owner and commercial manager, respectively, of the LNG carrier (LNG/C) New Energy. LNG/C New Energy used deceptive shipping practices, including shutting off its automatic identification system, to load cargo from the U.S.-sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project via a ship-to-ship transfer on August 25, 2024, with LNG/C Pioneer, a vessel blocked by the United States on August 23, 2024. We are also identifying one additional vessel managed and operated by Plio Energy, LNG/C Mulan, as property in which Plio Energy has an interest.

The U.S. government will continue to answer attempts to operationalize the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project or otherwise expand Russia’s energy capabilities with a swift response. Working alongside our G7 partners and other allies, we will remain steadfast in countering Russia’s exploitation of its energy resources for political gain.

Gotik and Plio Energy are being designated pursuant to Section 1(a)(vi)(B) of E.O. 14024, as amended, for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, Limited Liability Company Arctic LNG 2, a person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to E.O. 14024. New Energy (IMO 9324277) is being identified as property in which Gotik has an interest, and Mulan (IMO 9864837) is being identified as property in which Plio Energy has an interest.