What are the terms?

Trump claims this has been signed, but, the signing is supposed to take place in Switzerland on Friday..

Sadly, your guess is as good as mine.

AlJazeera

The United States and Iran are set to sign an initial agreement in Geneva on Friday to end the US-Israel war on Iran, begin a 60-day negotiation process, and resume traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistan, which has taken the lead in mediating peace talks, will host the signing in Switzerland.

However, neither side has yet published details of the agreement, so it is unclear to what extent Iran and the US have reached agreements on any major issues – or even whether to discuss them in the upcoming talks.

While US President Donald Trump has indicated that Iran’s nuclear programme will be part of any final agreement, he has made no mention at all of other previous US demands – such as dismantling Iran’s ballistic missiles programme or ending its support for proxy armed groups in the region.

“The only thing that really ‌matters to me is Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and it says it ⁠loud and clear,” Trump told reporters at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in France on Tuesday.

Relations between Washington and Tehran have been fractured and tumultuous since Trump’s first term as US president, when he withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

I wrote about this 2018 withdrawal at my old site, moving the information here in 2024.

Trump makes preparations to attack Iran starting years ago. This was a campaign designed to justify an attack on Iran

August 2018: The US imposes new sanctions on Iran

On August 7, the US imposed its first round of new sanctions on Iran, which had earlier been lifted as part of the international nuclear deal. The sanctions barred trade with a range of business and production sectors in Iran, from aviation and carpets to pistachios and gold.

November 2018: The US imposes more sanctions

On November 5, the US announced a new round of sanctions, this time specifically targeting Iran’s key oil and banking sectors.

April 2019: Trump designates the IRGC a ‘foreign terrorist organization’

On April 8, Trump designated Iran’s elite, parallel military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a “foreign terrorist organization” (FTO), marking the first time Washington had formally labelled another country’s military a “terrorist” group.

Anyway…. deal or no deal?

Iran says deal to end war with US requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon

Iran’s top diplomat said Tuesday that the tentative deal to end the war with the United States would require Israel to withdraw from Lebanon — a condition Israel has already rejected and that could sink the agreement, leading to the resumption of all-out war.

Israel is saying no way to that- through it’s actions as they continue bombing Lebanon today

Link

Trump doubled down on his prediction that the deal would be signed Sunday, though he added that he was “very unhappy” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a Sunday phone call with Axios. The president told a reporter that Netanyahu “has no fucking judgment.”

Israel attacked Lebanon quite viciously today, again.- Trump is allegedly unhappy with this. I’ve heard this before. The US would have surely known Israel was going to and did attack Lebanon.

Top administration officials would not confirm whether a peace deal would be signed Sunday — though Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told CBS he thinks the agreement is “on track.”

“From all I know, we are on track. It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when,” Hegseth said.

While U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz said Sunday morning he’s “confident” the peace deal will happen soon, he deferred to the White House when asked about the timing and logistics for signing the agreement.

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday that a “great settlement” with Iran was close after more than 100 days of conflict. The president announced the timing of the peace deal in a pinned post on Truth Social on Saturday.

“The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL,” Trump wrote, claiming his administration has “a much different and better” relationship with Iran than previous presidents.

A senior Iranian official shared details about the pending peace deal with Reuters on Sunday, claiming that in exchange for Iran immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz and halting the expansion of its nuclear program (as well as agreeing not to acquire a nuclear weapon), the U.S. will deliver economic relief to the country in the form of $25 billion in frozen assets.

A White House source familiar with the deal told NOTUS that the framework reported by Reuters “isn’t accurate” but did not provide additional details.

So deal or no deal? Cause I’m not seeing one.

Conflicting messaging continues to encircle the status and details of a prospective interim peace agreement between the US and Iran, but regional industry sources tell Energy Intelligence that a deal may be more firmly grounded now than at any other time during the 3 1/2 month conflict.

Unclear, Murky,

Can Trump Restrain Israel?

The question really should be- Does Trump want to restrain Israel?

Personally, I think he can. But doesn’t want to.

Link

In recent days, Ukrainian Armed Forces have damaged three key bridges at land entry points into Russian-occupied Crimea.

In the early hours of June 11, Ukraine’s Defense Forces conducted an airstrike on the bridge spanning the Crimea Canal in Armyansk, currently under Russian occupation. 

Residents of Armyansk reported hearing explosions at around 1:57 a.m., with reports confirming a strike on the road bridge, which has since sustained damage. Initial information also indicates that another bridge, located at the entrance to Krasnoperekopsk from Armyansk, was damaged as well.

Prior to this, on June 9 and 10, Ukrainian forces launched missile strikes on the Chonhar Bridge and on another bridge connecting Russian-held Henichesk to the Arabat Spit. These actions have effectively rendered all major land entry bridges into annexed Crimea unusable.

Back in May, Ukraine’s Defense Forces began an operation aimed at isolating Russian troops on the occupied peninsula. As part of this campaign, missile and drone strikes have targeted bridges and key roadways connecting Russia-via Rostov-on-Don and Taganrog-to Crimea through other occupied cities such as Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol, and Dzhankoi.

The strategy to blockade Crimea’s land corridor appears to be working. The commander of Russia’s “Vostok” troop grouping has reportedly banned movement of military cargo along the Mariupol-Berdyansk-Melitopol-Simferopol route in occupied Ukrainian territory.

Ukrainian media is reporting on the work arounds

The first alternative route runs through the towns of Novooleksiivka, Askania-Nova, Chaplynka, and Myrne, from where vehicles can reach Armiansk.

The second detour option also begins in Novooleksiivka but then runs through Hromivka, Chaplynka, and Myrne, ending in Armiansk.

Both routes pass over the bridge from Myrne to Highway E97, which leads to Armiansk. This bridge was also under attack but likely sustained no significant damage.

Meanwhile, the Kerch Bridge, which connects the peninsula to Russian territory, remains operational, though traffic across it remains significantly restricted.

Strict restrictions on tonnage and vehicle types are in effect on the Kerch Bridge; in particular, electric vehicles are completely banned from using it.

That’s likely related to the explosive battery issue with EV’s.

One thing for sure about Trump is he never has a straight answer for anything. That’s a certainty

Trump calls off fresh strikes hours after threatening to hit Iran ‘very hard’

Trump says planned strikes on Iran are canceled, cites progress on potential deal

Speaking of Trump and Bibi’s war of choice;

World Bank lowers global growth forecast on Iran war impacts

The World Bank on Thursday lowered its global growth forecast to its lowest level since the pandemic, warning of the expanding economic impacts of the war in the Middle East on countries around the globe.

Worldwide growth is now forecast to drop to 2.5 percent in 2026, from 2.9 percent a year earlier, with headline inflation averaging four percent, the multilateral lender said in its Global Economic Prospects report.

The US-Israel war on Iran has sent energy prices skyrocketing, causing steeper inflation with the potential for increased borrowing costs as central banks seek to tame the rampant price increases.

The World Bank said it was making up to $60 billion immediately available to developing countries which have been hardest hit by the crisis. It said that number could increase to $100 billion over 15 months.

“In response to the current shock, we are providing liquidity where it is needed now — and we are ready with additional financing, guarantees, and private-sector solutions if pressures deepen,” said Ajay Banga, the Bank’s president.

Growth forecasts for two-thirds of the world’s economies have been downgraded in the new report relative to January of this year.

And World Bank officials warned of the unequal nature of the shock, hitting low-income and developing countries harder than advanced economies.

“For now, Asia is the worst affected section of the global economy,” said Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank.

Original url to my former site below

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-future-of-armenia-three-options-for.html?zx=2961c3821b1b4800

Carnegie endowment link below is no longer viable

https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/2021/01/19/future-of-democracy-and-state-building-in-postconflict-armenia-pub-83650

The Future of Armenia- is not for Armenia to decide

Have no fear the EU is going to keep it’s foot in the door and continue to force Armenian’s to bend to the will of the globalist capitalist western 5 + 1 eyes agenda. Remember that France’s Macron simply  couldn’t keep his mouth shut as Russia negotiated a settlement in this locale. France and the US were extremely displeased with the agreement made between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.   

No one could have thought the settlement, which had the support of Iran and Turkey as well was, going to be allowed to stand without being challenged?

 Carnegie Europe and I’m going to cut to the chase:

Any solution to the crisis should not only concern the government’s future but also involve an in-depth reflection on Armenia’s democracy-security nexus. The relationship between the democratization process begun in 2018, on the one hand, and territorial and security considerations after the 2020 conflict, on the other, will have critical implications for Armenia in the medium to long term when it comes to state building and national identity. This debate is especially crucial because the ceasefire stopped armed hostilities but fell short of offering a sustainable solution in Nagorno-Karabakh, not least because the truce agreement did not touch on the future status of the territory.

Three Options for EU Meddling- Cause you just can’t have neighbours getting along in their own neighbourhood. Right?

The relevance of the EU model in Armenia will hinge on the union’s engagement in the months to come. After the shift of power in 2018, the EU increased its assistance to the country to €65 million ($79 million) in 2019. The EU has supported the authorities’ reform agenda, in particular in fighting corruption (€14.8 million or $18 million), reforming the justice sector (€30 million or $37 million for the first phase), and improving the integrity of the electoral process (€7.5 million or $9.1 million). The union has also enhanced the protection of human rights in the country through a dedicated human rights budget-support program—the only one of its kind in the EU’s external assistance. The EU has expanded support for civil society organizations, including in Armenia’s regions. Some new EU support is also linked to humanitarian assistance for people displaced by the conflict, while other funding is related to the coronavirus pandemic.

In the postconflict context, the EU will need to massively step up its engagement in support of the state-building process launched in 2018, along three priorities. First, the EU should further assist the Armenian government in enhancing good governance and the rule of law, including through reforms of the public administration and the judiciary. The EU’s decision to disburse €9 million ($11 million) in grants to support justice reform is a step in this direction.

Enhancing good governance sounds good, but, it’s always off tempo and out of key- It’s bad.

Second, as economic development is critical for the sustainability of democratic reforms, the EU should further support European investment in Armenia. The Armenian government’s steps to attract foreign investment and the forthcoming entry into force of the EU-Armenia Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement should make this easier.

Civil Society, Gene Sharp’s Colour Revolution re-invigorated funded by the likes of George Soros and NED

Third, the EU should continue to expand existing support for civil society organizations and youth, for example the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum, the Youth in Action program, the Erasmus+ student-exchange program, and the Tempus higher-education initiative. The EU could do this specifically by further fostering the participation of civil society and youth organizations—including grassroots bodies in Armenia’s regions—in policy dialogues and the monitoring of reforms at all levels, especially the local level. The EU has undertaken initial steps in this respect, for instance by funding a two-year coaching program and grants for eight grassroots organizations.

In delivering assistance aimed at these three priorities, the EU should focus on sharing experiences and offering exposure to EU templates and exchanges of practice, rather than make its support onerously conditional on progress in Armenia’s reform process. That is because the former approach is more likely to trigger deep changes in the long term, whereas the latter could backfire.

All approaches will be tried. And there are likely additional approaches that will be attempted as well. By other players.

Via the Burning Archive

Read Tarik Cyril Amar’s article on “Mein AI: at https://www.tarikcyrilamar.com

Palantir manifesto described as ‘ramblings of a supervillain’ amid UK contract fears

“Palantir’s manifesto, which embraces AI state surveillance of citizens along with national service in the USA, is either a parody of a RoboCop film, or a disturbing narcissistic rant from an arrogant organisation,”

For those who may not know the name?

Alfred W McCoy is the Harrington Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is the author of the now-classic book The Politics of Heroin: CIA Complicity in the Global Drug Trade, which probed the conjuncture of illicit narcotics and covert operations over 50 years, and the recently published In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of US Global Power.

An interesting read.

Amid all the drama of air raids, drone strikes, and naval blockades, there are deeper geopolitical forces at play that lend a lasting historical import to events in the Persian Gulf—dynamics best seen by comparing two newspaper editorials with revealing similarities despite the 80 years separating their publication.

Writing in 1942, during some of Britain’s darkest days in World War II, the editors of the venerable London Times looked far beyond the relentless German attacks on their forces in Egypt or the Nazi U-Boat sinkings of Royal Navy ships in the Atlantic to predict their empire’s future with an uncommon prescience.

With its contradictory motto of “Imperium et Libertas” (Empire and Liberty), the vast British Empire, which still covered a quarter of the globe, had already become what those editors called “a self-liquidating concern.”

Once the “temporary circumstances” that had allowed Britain’s ascent — naval dominance, industrial preeminence, and “the relative weakness of rival states” — faded, that empire’s “ultimate reliance on coercion” could no longer hold.

Ready for self-governance, Britain’s many colonies, the editors suggested, would soon begin breaking away and so eclipse the empire. And that prediction couldn’t have been more accurate. Within five years of that editorial’s publication, the British Empire had already started to break apart.

Writing in a May 2026 edition of The New York Times, contributing editor Christopher Caldwell made a strikingly similar prediction about the future of US global hegemony. Under the provocative headline “America Is Officially an Empire in Decline,” Caldwell noted some unsettling parallels between the fate of America today and Great Britain 80 years ago.

Back then, England was “deindustrializing, overcommitted, complacent,” and found itself “essentially bankrupt” by the end of World War II. Apart from its “ill-fated attempt” to seize the Suez Canal from Egypt in 1956, however, it managed to decolonize in a successful fashion by giving up “territories it could no longer afford.” As he points out, Britain even “wound up on reasonably good terms with its former colonial possessions.”

To the US, presently

At the start of his second term as president in 2025, Donald Trump, Caldwell continued, “had a chance of pulling off something similar” by withdrawing “to a less expansive sphere of influence” and “refocusing American attention on the Western Hemisphere.” Caldwell considered that strategy potentially “workable” since “imperial systems, whatever you call them, last only as long as their means are adequate to their ends.”

Instead of keeping to that plan, however, Trump “has overextended the empire dangerously” by his intervention in Iran, which has now become nothing less than a “watershed in the decline of the American empire.”

To test the probability of Caldwell’s prediction coming true, we need to go beyond the immediacy of the Iran crisis to explore both the deeper causes of US global decline and its likely long-term consequences for both the United States and the rest of the world.

Explaining US imperial decline

Since most Americans came late (if at all) to the realization that their country was indeed an imperial power, and a stunningly powerful one at that, they have generally remained oblivious to its aging and the inevitable erosion of global power that accompanies such aging.

Please do read the rest at the link provided

Interesting information- quite contrary to western media presentation

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s remarks on relations with Azerbaijan, delivered on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, became one of Moscow’s most notable regional signals. The Russian leader not only offered an emphatically positive assessment of bilateral ties but also revealed that the two countries are holding talks on specific areas of cooperation, primarily in the energy sector, and announced a forthcoming meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

Putin spoke about Azerbaijan on June 4, 2026, during his traditional meeting with the heads of leading international news agencies at the Konstantinovsky Palace. Responding to a question from Vugar Aliyev, Chairman of the Board of AZERTAC, the Russian president described bilateral relations in distinctly positive terms.

“We have good relations with Azerbaijan. They have always been good and remain so, both in the economy and in the political sphere,” Putin said.

He placed particular emphasis on the role of President Ilham Aliyev, noting his efforts to give practical substance to the agreements on strategic cooperation between the two countries. Putin was referring to the Declaration on Allied Interaction signed by the two leaders in Moscow on February 22, 2022.

The document covers a broad range of areas, including political dialogue, security, trade, energy, transport and humanitarian cooperation. Putin’s reference to this framework is significant. Moscow is thereby signalling that it continues to view relations with Baku not as a collection of separate economic contacts, but as a structured interstate partnership. This is particularly important against the backdrop of complex regional developments, growing competition over transport routes and the continued transformation of the economic architecture of Eurasia.

The most intriguing part of the Russian leader’s remarks concerned energy. Putin said that Russia and Azerbaijan were conducting negotiations “across a whole range of specific areas,” although he considered it premature to disclose the details.

“This primarily concerns energy. We will meet with President Aliyev and will certainly discuss all of this,” he said.

Such wording suggests that the two sides are discussing not merely general prospects for cooperation, but practical projects that may require political approval at the highest level. At the same time, no exact date has yet been announced for the upcoming meeting between Aliyev and Putin.

Energy dialogue between Azerbaijan and Russia is multilayered. Both countries are major producers and exporters of hydrocarbons, yet their interests are not limited to competition. Baku and Moscow cooperate in the oil and gas sector, electricity, energy exchanges and regional infrastructure. Russian companies operate in the Azerbaijani market, while SOCAR has longstanding experience of working with Russian partners.

Potential new agreements could relate to energy supplies and swap operations, the processing of raw materials, the use of energy infrastructure or the balancing of regional markets. However, until official information is released, any more specific assumptions should be regarded solely as possible scenarios.

A substantial part of the Russian president’s response focused on economic relations. Putin said that bilateral trade was growing and that additional opportunities were emerging for mutual supplies. The latest full-year figures indeed confirm the long-term expansion of trade.
According to Azerbaijan’s State Customs Committee, trade turnover between Azerbaijan and Russia reached $4.92 billion in 2025, an increase of 2.5% compared with $4.799 billion in 2024. Russia remained among Azerbaijan’s three largest trading partners, behind only Italy and Türkiye

So, Israel… not a big trading partner with Azerbaijan?

Azerbaijani exports to Russia reached $1.184 billion in 2025, rising by 0.5%. Imports of Russian goods increased by 3.2% to $3.736 billion. Bilateral trade therefore continues to show a significant imbalance in favour of Russian supplies. For every dollar of Azerbaijani exports to Russia, more than three dollars’ worth of goods were imported from Russia

The use of national currencies is also expanding. According to figures presented in April at a meeting of the intergovernmental commission, the Russian ruble accounted for 42% of settlements for Azerbaijani exports and 83% of payments for imports from Russia. This reduces dependence on third-country currencies and simplifies transactions amid a changing international financial environment.

The International North-South Transport Corridor remains the key project in this regard. Its western branch runs through Russia and Azerbaijan toward Iran. The corridor’s full-scale operation requires the completion of missing infrastructure sections, the modernisation of railways and border crossings, and the improvement of customs procedures. For Russia, the route represents an alternative gateway to southern markets, while for Azerbaijan it offers an opportunity to strengthen its position as one of Eurasia’s principal transport hubs.

Read the rest at the link provided

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed deeper peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a combative open letter on Thursday

Mr. Zelenskyy floated direct negotiations hosted by Switzerland, Turkey or “countries of the Arab world,” adding that talks could not take place in Moscow or Kyiv.

Mr. Zelenskyy said, is prepared to agree to a complete ceasefire for the duration of negotiations and insisted that Kyiv is not looking for a “permanent war.”

However, he insisted that Ukraine would not negotiate with Russia without the European Union leaders present and hoped that the U.S. would serve as monitors of a potential ceasefire.

“If you do not personally come to the conclusion that it is time to end this war, Ukraine will continue fighting for its existence. We will have those who support us,” he wrote. “It is a fact of Russian history that you know well: When Russia grows tired, change comes. We can work toward that fatigue. You can stop your war.”

So, Zelensky does some historical rewriting.. You can stop your war? Dictating terms for the meeting? Wanting the EU involved with negotiations and wanting the US to monitor the ceasefire (occupy Ukraine)

Mr. Putin has been briefed on the letter and reiterated that Mr. Zelenskyy is welcome to attend peace negotiations in Moscow at any time.

Mr. Putin, for his part, rejected the participation of EU officials in negotiations, arguing that countries involved in supplying weapons to Ukraine cannot be neutral (This includes the US)

President Trump expressed general support for the idea of direct talks between the two leaders, calling them both “very good people.” He also reiterated that Ukraine could not have withstood Russia’s advance without U.S. support.

“Without our military and our equipment, Ukraine would not be able to continue the fight today. Without the equipment that I provided them, Ukraine would not have lasted even a day or two,” Mr. Trump said.

Like I said, PR/Propaganda stunt- This was clearly not a serious offer