Just days after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran announced the critical waterway is closed again, threatening oil flows after they had barely started to rebound. (Thanks Israel!)

On Saturday, Iran’s military command said it closed the strait, citing continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon and U.S. “bad faith” in failing to uphold commitments to end the war. It also warned that “if the aggression continues, subsequent steps have been planned.”

Not to be outdone, President Donald Trump threatened to charge U.S. tolls for “services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East,” if a final deal with Iran isn’t reached in 60 days.

Guardian Angel Trump- the entire reason the Straits are shut down is because the US and Israel attacked Iran

While the U.S. ended its naval blockade on Iran as part of the MOU, Central Command also said “U.S. forces remain present and vigilant to ensure all aspects of the agreement with Iran are adhered to, obeyed, and in full force and effect.”

For its part, Tehran’s new Persian Gulf Strait Authority warned that ships must follow a regime-established route that passes along the Iranian coast and that alternatives are prohibited.

And despite its deal with the U.S. banning tolls for 60 days, the PGSA is requiring insurance that will eventually come at a cost.

“At present, this insurance is provided free of charge to the vessel owner, with all expenses covered by the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Iran said. “The PGSA reserves the right to introduce insurance fees in the future, which will be determined by the relevant insurer. Owners will then be required to purchase and renew coverage accordingly.”

For ships that require assurances of safe passage, recent developments aren’t helping. Oil prices tumbled after the U.S. and Iran announced the deal last weekend, but a return to normal flows will take months.

And until supplies recover, global oil inventories will continue to remain under pressure. In the U.S., the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has already plunged to the lowest level since 1983.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which was the scene of regular skirmishes between the U.S. and Iran before the latest deal, highlights the private sector’s role.

“But it’s not Iran or the US who decide that the strait is open—it’s shipping and insurance companies,” Eurasia Group senior analyst Gregory Brew posted on X.

While other Iran experts predicted Saturday’s announcement of the strait’s closure would scare off ships just as traffic was showing signs of climbing, Brew questioned if that will be a sufficient threat

Again, it’s up to the ships to decide.

“Will the Iranian announcement be enough to deter them? Or will Iran need to resort to force and directly violate the MOU’s terms?” he added.

Even before the latest flurry of mixed signals, the industry had doubts. One shipping executive told the New York Times on Friday that he deemed the conditions too uncertain for his ship to leave the Persian Gulf.

Israel ‘ready to sabotage’ US-Iran memorandum, Turkish top diplomat says

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan cautions that Israel may act cynically to derail the US-Iran agreement implementation during the ongoing regional diplomatic negotiations process

Trump is counting on it.

Israeli Minister says Lebanon Must Burn

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused Israel on Friday of wanting “permanent war” following remarks from its far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir saying “all Lebanon must burn” after four Israeli soldiers were killed there. (Invading and occupying another country)

“This is not a rant by a random genocidal lunatic. It’s a public post by the national security minister of the Israeli regime. The genocidal death cult headquartered in Tel Aviv is a threat to all of humanity. It threatens all humans. Its only interest is permanent war,” Araghchi said on X.

Ben Gvir should have been tried for war crimes long ago.. Instead he’s as disgusting, despicable and hateful as always. Of course, he gets away with it

At least 31 killed as Israel keeps attacking Lebanon

At least 31 people were killed and several others injured in a series of Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon since early Friday, Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reported, marking the deadliest escalation since the US and Iran signed an agreement aimed at ending war on multiple fronts, including Lebanon.

Israeli strikes after midnight targeted residential homes in the towns of Al-Sharqiyah, Harouf and Kfar Sir in the Nabatieh district, causing casualties and leaving several people missing, NNA reported.

At around 2.10 am local time (2310GMT Thursday), Israeli warplanes launched a series of strikes on Nabatieh city, Kfar Tebnit, Nabatieh al-Fawqa and the Rayhan heights, according to the agency.

Several other strikes hit the Kfarjoz-Nabatieh area, the university neighborhood in Nabatieh and the Al-Baydar neighborhood in Harouf, killing eight people around 3 am (0000GMT), according to the news agency.

Another strike targeted the Al-Ashamiya area between Al-Sharqiyah and Doueir, destroying a house and killing four people, according to the agency.

US/Iran deal Strait of Hormuz- Shipping oil/gas prices

Gas Prices Could Take Months to Return to Pre-War Levels Even After U.S.-Iran Deal

It could take months for gas prices to fall to pre-war levels and economies to fully recover even after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war on Wednesday, analysts tell TIME, dashing hopes that countries around the world may find instant relief.

“Any indication that negotiations towards a final deal are not progressing as expected could raise concerns that the Strait of Hormuz may be blocked again,” adds Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO).

More than 40 energy infrastructures across the Middle East were damaged in attacks during the war, forcing many refineries across the Gulf to halt production. Middle East crude oil exports fell from 15 million barrels per day before the war began to around seven million barrels per day at the start of April

Ludher tells TIME that the repair of damaged fertilizer production facilities could take years. Food prices will also be dependent on how soon fuel supplies reach markets and whether suppliers opportunistically price gouge, she adds.

Trump condemned Obama’s Iran deal. Here’s how his own compares.

Read at this link via archive.ph

Related to yesterday’s post…

The “leaked” memorandum

Below is the full text of the alleged agreement between Washington and Tehran as circulated by Al Arabiya and Israeli media. A summary of the same 14 points was published by Bloomberg. The White House has not confirmed the authenticity of the leaked text, and RT could not independently verify the claims in the list.

1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare, upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this article and the remaining articles.

2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States will lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity. The traffic of ships shall be proportional to the prewar volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.

5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the prewar volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.

6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.

7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral US sanctions, both primary and secondary.

8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this article.

9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.

10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.

11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations toward a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final-beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.

12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of, and future commitment to, the final agreement. (IAEA will be back inspecting, as they did under JCPOA 1)

13. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, as well as the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a final agreement solely with respect to the remaining articles.

14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council. (Exactly like the JCPOA 1- negotiated under the Obama administration- without all the damage to the global economy)

JCPOA 1 summarized

The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) involved several core components tying the Obama-era agreement to the United Nations:

• UN Endorsement: In July 2015, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2231, which formally endorsed the agreement, terminated previous UN sanctions resolutions, and outlined a timetable for ending all UN-imposed nuclear restrictions. [1, 2]
• The Obama Strategy: The Obama administration’s primary goal for the agreement was to utilize diplomatic fanout with international partners (the P5+1) to lengthen the time Iran would need to develop a nuclear weapon—stretching their “break-out time” from 2-3 months to a full year. [1, 2, 3]
• IAEA Monitoring: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was designated as the independent body responsible for monitoring, investigating, and verifying Iran’s compliance with the deal’s strict limits on uranium enrichment and centrifuge counts. [1, 2, 3]
• Enforcement (“Snapback”): A unique UN provision allowed any participant in the JCPOA to trigger the “snapback” mechanism. If Iran was found to be violating the deal, this mechanism would automatically reinstate all previously lifted UN sanctions without requiring a new Security Council vote. [1, 2, 3]
• Current Status: The United States withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and formally pulled away from UN Resolution 2231’s framework. Since the U.S. exit, Iran has gradually suspended its adherence to many of the deal’s limits. [1, 2, 3, 4]
• France, Germany and the UK initiated the snapback mechanism in advance of the US/Israel attacks

On 28 August 2025, France, the United Kingdom and Germany (E3) activated the “snapback” mechanism, which re-establishes the international sanctions on Iran put in place in 2015

What are the terms?

Trump claims this has been signed, but, the signing is supposed to take place in Switzerland on Friday..

Sadly, your guess is as good as mine.

AlJazeera

The United States and Iran are set to sign an initial agreement in Geneva on Friday to end the US-Israel war on Iran, begin a 60-day negotiation process, and resume traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistan, which has taken the lead in mediating peace talks, will host the signing in Switzerland.

However, neither side has yet published details of the agreement, so it is unclear to what extent Iran and the US have reached agreements on any major issues – or even whether to discuss them in the upcoming talks.

While US President Donald Trump has indicated that Iran’s nuclear programme will be part of any final agreement, he has made no mention at all of other previous US demands – such as dismantling Iran’s ballistic missiles programme or ending its support for proxy armed groups in the region.

“The only thing that really ‌matters to me is Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and it says it ⁠loud and clear,” Trump told reporters at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in France on Tuesday.

Relations between Washington and Tehran have been fractured and tumultuous since Trump’s first term as US president, when he withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

I wrote about this 2018 withdrawal at my old site, moving the information here in 2024.

Trump makes preparations to attack Iran starting years ago. This was a campaign designed to justify an attack on Iran

August 2018: The US imposes new sanctions on Iran

On August 7, the US imposed its first round of new sanctions on Iran, which had earlier been lifted as part of the international nuclear deal. The sanctions barred trade with a range of business and production sectors in Iran, from aviation and carpets to pistachios and gold.

November 2018: The US imposes more sanctions

On November 5, the US announced a new round of sanctions, this time specifically targeting Iran’s key oil and banking sectors.

April 2019: Trump designates the IRGC a ‘foreign terrorist organization’

On April 8, Trump designated Iran’s elite, parallel military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a “foreign terrorist organization” (FTO), marking the first time Washington had formally labelled another country’s military a “terrorist” group.

Anyway…. deal or no deal?

Iran says deal to end war with US requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon

Iran’s top diplomat said Tuesday that the tentative deal to end the war with the United States would require Israel to withdraw from Lebanon — a condition Israel has already rejected and that could sink the agreement, leading to the resumption of all-out war.

Israel is saying no way to that- through it’s actions as they continue bombing Lebanon today

Link

Trump doubled down on his prediction that the deal would be signed Sunday, though he added that he was “very unhappy” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a Sunday phone call with Axios. The president told a reporter that Netanyahu “has no fucking judgment.”

Israel attacked Lebanon quite viciously today, again.- Trump is allegedly unhappy with this. I’ve heard this before. The US would have surely known Israel was going to and did attack Lebanon.

Top administration officials would not confirm whether a peace deal would be signed Sunday — though Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told CBS he thinks the agreement is “on track.”

“From all I know, we are on track. It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when,” Hegseth said.

While U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz said Sunday morning he’s “confident” the peace deal will happen soon, he deferred to the White House when asked about the timing and logistics for signing the agreement.

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday that a “great settlement” with Iran was close after more than 100 days of conflict. The president announced the timing of the peace deal in a pinned post on Truth Social on Saturday.

“The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL,” Trump wrote, claiming his administration has “a much different and better” relationship with Iran than previous presidents.

A senior Iranian official shared details about the pending peace deal with Reuters on Sunday, claiming that in exchange for Iran immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz and halting the expansion of its nuclear program (as well as agreeing not to acquire a nuclear weapon), the U.S. will deliver economic relief to the country in the form of $25 billion in frozen assets.

A White House source familiar with the deal told NOTUS that the framework reported by Reuters “isn’t accurate” but did not provide additional details.

So deal or no deal? Cause I’m not seeing one.

Conflicting messaging continues to encircle the status and details of a prospective interim peace agreement between the US and Iran, but regional industry sources tell Energy Intelligence that a deal may be more firmly grounded now than at any other time during the 3 1/2 month conflict.

Unclear, Murky,

Can Trump Restrain Israel?

The question really should be- Does Trump want to restrain Israel?

Personally, I think he can. But doesn’t want to.

Link

In recent days, Ukrainian Armed Forces have damaged three key bridges at land entry points into Russian-occupied Crimea.

In the early hours of June 11, Ukraine’s Defense Forces conducted an airstrike on the bridge spanning the Crimea Canal in Armyansk, currently under Russian occupation. 

Residents of Armyansk reported hearing explosions at around 1:57 a.m., with reports confirming a strike on the road bridge, which has since sustained damage. Initial information also indicates that another bridge, located at the entrance to Krasnoperekopsk from Armyansk, was damaged as well.

Prior to this, on June 9 and 10, Ukrainian forces launched missile strikes on the Chonhar Bridge and on another bridge connecting Russian-held Henichesk to the Arabat Spit. These actions have effectively rendered all major land entry bridges into annexed Crimea unusable.

Back in May, Ukraine’s Defense Forces began an operation aimed at isolating Russian troops on the occupied peninsula. As part of this campaign, missile and drone strikes have targeted bridges and key roadways connecting Russia-via Rostov-on-Don and Taganrog-to Crimea through other occupied cities such as Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol, and Dzhankoi.

The strategy to blockade Crimea’s land corridor appears to be working. The commander of Russia’s “Vostok” troop grouping has reportedly banned movement of military cargo along the Mariupol-Berdyansk-Melitopol-Simferopol route in occupied Ukrainian territory.

Ukrainian media is reporting on the work arounds

The first alternative route runs through the towns of Novooleksiivka, Askania-Nova, Chaplynka, and Myrne, from where vehicles can reach Armiansk.

The second detour option also begins in Novooleksiivka but then runs through Hromivka, Chaplynka, and Myrne, ending in Armiansk.

Both routes pass over the bridge from Myrne to Highway E97, which leads to Armiansk. This bridge was also under attack but likely sustained no significant damage.

Meanwhile, the Kerch Bridge, which connects the peninsula to Russian territory, remains operational, though traffic across it remains significantly restricted.

Strict restrictions on tonnage and vehicle types are in effect on the Kerch Bridge; in particular, electric vehicles are completely banned from using it.

That’s likely related to the explosive battery issue with EV’s.

One thing for sure about Trump is he never has a straight answer for anything. That’s a certainty

Trump calls off fresh strikes hours after threatening to hit Iran ‘very hard’

Trump says planned strikes on Iran are canceled, cites progress on potential deal

Speaking of Trump and Bibi’s war of choice;

World Bank lowers global growth forecast on Iran war impacts

The World Bank on Thursday lowered its global growth forecast to its lowest level since the pandemic, warning of the expanding economic impacts of the war in the Middle East on countries around the globe.

Worldwide growth is now forecast to drop to 2.5 percent in 2026, from 2.9 percent a year earlier, with headline inflation averaging four percent, the multilateral lender said in its Global Economic Prospects report.

The US-Israel war on Iran has sent energy prices skyrocketing, causing steeper inflation with the potential for increased borrowing costs as central banks seek to tame the rampant price increases.

The World Bank said it was making up to $60 billion immediately available to developing countries which have been hardest hit by the crisis. It said that number could increase to $100 billion over 15 months.

“In response to the current shock, we are providing liquidity where it is needed now — and we are ready with additional financing, guarantees, and private-sector solutions if pressures deepen,” said Ajay Banga, the Bank’s president.

Growth forecasts for two-thirds of the world’s economies have been downgraded in the new report relative to January of this year.

And World Bank officials warned of the unequal nature of the shock, hitting low-income and developing countries harder than advanced economies.

“For now, Asia is the worst affected section of the global economy,” said Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank.

Original url to my former site below

https://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-future-of-armenia-three-options-for.html?zx=2961c3821b1b4800

Carnegie endowment link below is no longer viable

https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/2021/01/19/future-of-democracy-and-state-building-in-postconflict-armenia-pub-83650

The Future of Armenia- is not for Armenia to decide

Have no fear the EU is going to keep it’s foot in the door and continue to force Armenian’s to bend to the will of the globalist capitalist western 5 + 1 eyes agenda. Remember that France’s Macron simply  couldn’t keep his mouth shut as Russia negotiated a settlement in this locale. France and the US were extremely displeased with the agreement made between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.   

No one could have thought the settlement, which had the support of Iran and Turkey as well was, going to be allowed to stand without being challenged?

 Carnegie Europe and I’m going to cut to the chase:

Any solution to the crisis should not only concern the government’s future but also involve an in-depth reflection on Armenia’s democracy-security nexus. The relationship between the democratization process begun in 2018, on the one hand, and territorial and security considerations after the 2020 conflict, on the other, will have critical implications for Armenia in the medium to long term when it comes to state building and national identity. This debate is especially crucial because the ceasefire stopped armed hostilities but fell short of offering a sustainable solution in Nagorno-Karabakh, not least because the truce agreement did not touch on the future status of the territory.

Three Options for EU Meddling- Cause you just can’t have neighbours getting along in their own neighbourhood. Right?

The relevance of the EU model in Armenia will hinge on the union’s engagement in the months to come. After the shift of power in 2018, the EU increased its assistance to the country to €65 million ($79 million) in 2019. The EU has supported the authorities’ reform agenda, in particular in fighting corruption (€14.8 million or $18 million), reforming the justice sector (€30 million or $37 million for the first phase), and improving the integrity of the electoral process (€7.5 million or $9.1 million). The union has also enhanced the protection of human rights in the country through a dedicated human rights budget-support program—the only one of its kind in the EU’s external assistance. The EU has expanded support for civil society organizations, including in Armenia’s regions. Some new EU support is also linked to humanitarian assistance for people displaced by the conflict, while other funding is related to the coronavirus pandemic.

In the postconflict context, the EU will need to massively step up its engagement in support of the state-building process launched in 2018, along three priorities. First, the EU should further assist the Armenian government in enhancing good governance and the rule of law, including through reforms of the public administration and the judiciary. The EU’s decision to disburse €9 million ($11 million) in grants to support justice reform is a step in this direction.

Enhancing good governance sounds good, but, it’s always off tempo and out of key- It’s bad.

Second, as economic development is critical for the sustainability of democratic reforms, the EU should further support European investment in Armenia. The Armenian government’s steps to attract foreign investment and the forthcoming entry into force of the EU-Armenia Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement should make this easier.

Civil Society, Gene Sharp’s Colour Revolution re-invigorated funded by the likes of George Soros and NED

Third, the EU should continue to expand existing support for civil society organizations and youth, for example the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum, the Youth in Action program, the Erasmus+ student-exchange program, and the Tempus higher-education initiative. The EU could do this specifically by further fostering the participation of civil society and youth organizations—including grassroots bodies in Armenia’s regions—in policy dialogues and the monitoring of reforms at all levels, especially the local level. The EU has undertaken initial steps in this respect, for instance by funding a two-year coaching program and grants for eight grassroots organizations.

In delivering assistance aimed at these three priorities, the EU should focus on sharing experiences and offering exposure to EU templates and exchanges of practice, rather than make its support onerously conditional on progress in Armenia’s reform process. That is because the former approach is more likely to trigger deep changes in the long term, whereas the latter could backfire.

All approaches will be tried. And there are likely additional approaches that will be attempted as well. By other players.

Via the Burning Archive

Read Tarik Cyril Amar’s article on “Mein AI: at https://www.tarikcyrilamar.com

Palantir manifesto described as ‘ramblings of a supervillain’ amid UK contract fears

“Palantir’s manifesto, which embraces AI state surveillance of citizens along with national service in the USA, is either a parody of a RoboCop film, or a disturbing narcissistic rant from an arrogant organisation,”