--- title: "Netanyahu Gambling For Resurrection??" type: "post" post_id: "6207" slug: "netanyahu-gambling-for-resurrection" canonical: "https://pennyforyourthoughts2.ca/2024/05/10/netanyahu-gambling-for-resurrection/" markdown_url: "https://pennyforyourthoughts2.ca/2024/05/10/netanyahu-gambling-for-resurrection.md" json_url: "https://pennyforyourthoughts2.ca/2024/05/10/netanyahu-gambling-for-resurrection.json" txt_url: "https://pennyforyourthoughts2.ca/2024/05/10/netanyahu-gambling-for-resurrection.txt" published: "2024-05-10T14:56:28+00:00" modified: "2024-05-10T15:01:44+00:00" author: "penny2" categories: - "Uncategorized" tags: - "Israel" - "US" site_name: "PFYT2" publisher: "" language: "en-US" generator: "easyPress Markdown" generator_version: "1.0.6" --- **If this author is correct on `Gambling for Resurrection` theory- Netanyahu is overseeing what will inevitably be the downfall himself and of Israel. Unless the US throws him a lifeline. This also applies to Zelensky, who is in the process of destroying Ukraine. Both are looking for resurrection. Neither will get it, in my opinion.** > [What the foiled Zelensky assassination plot means or doesn’t mean](https://pennyforyourthoughts2.ca/2024/05/08/what-the-foiled-zelensky-assassination-plot-means-or-doesnt-mean/) **Let’s [cut to the chase](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/cut-to-the-chase) rather than include all the spin and perception management the author included.** [Forbes.com](https://www.forbes.com/sites/gautammukunda/2024/05/10/the-key-to-understanding-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-hes-gambling-for-resurrection/?sh=76db4cc5b617) > **How, though, do we explain the choices of Benjamin Netanyahu**—the democratically elected **(??)** leader of Israel — who is **continuing on a course of action opposed by his own people, his nation’s most important ally, and, of course, most of the rest of the world?** His choices may seem intractable, or illogical. They are not. They are, from a certain point of view, perfectly rational. They are, in fact, an excellent example of a phenomenon that political scientists have long studied, and that is a problem in areas far removed from the Middle East. It’s called ***“gambling for resurrection.”*** > > When international relations theorists first theorized about it, **gambling for resurrection was usually about dictators**. *( Interesting attempt at excluding Israel’s leadership- Netanyahu is dictatorial in actions and deeds- the author acknowledges such above)* Imagine you’re the leader of an autocracy. (Israel is not a democracy) You’re fighting a war, and you’re losing—by a lot. The best outcome for your country is for you to negotiate a settlement where you’ll lose, but you won’t get destroyed. > > For you, though, **admitting defeat might actually be the worst-case scenario**. Dictators who lose wars usually don’t hold onto power for very long. **So if you do admit defeat, at best, you’ll be overthrown and exiled. At worst, you’ll be overthrown and executed. What do you do? You gamble for resurrection.** With a 10% chance of winning the war and a 90% chance of catastrophe, you’re naturally going to gamble on the 10% so you don’t get overthrown (or worse). > > **The best historical example may be Napoleon’s final campaigns**. Facing the combined armies of Austria, Prussia, Russia, and the United Kingdom, all of which had made his overthrow a central war aim, he fought on long after defeat was virtually certain. Napoleon was perhaps the greatest military genius who ever lived. These final battles were among his greatest masterstrokes. **But he still lost, and tens of thousands of French soldiers died for no reason other than to extend his hold on power by a few weeks**. > > Then, in 1815**, he returned from his exile on the island of Elba and took over France once again, before his final defeat at Waterloo. Facing such tremendous odds, even Napoleon could not win. But he considered overthrow and exile to be such an awful fate that he had to try.** > Usually, in a democracy, gambling for resurrection isn’t a problem. Al Gore didn’t need to gamble for the 10%. **But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does.** *(Because Israel is not a democracy)* > **Netanyahu’s essential problem is that when he leaves office, he is likely going to jail. He’s under indictment for corruption charges, and nobody really thinks—as far as I can tell—that he’s innocent. The only reason he isn’t in prison is because he is currently Prime Minister and the country is currently at war.** > **For Netanyahu, the writing is on the wall, and that’s the reason pressure on him from all quarters doesn’t seem to be having much effect at all: All of his incentives push him to gamble for resurrection.** He can only steer clear of his fate if he pulls a rabbit out of his hat and turns his fortunes around before he is forced to call the next Israeli elections, which aren’t mandated to occur until October 2026. > > **If Biden wants to change Netanyahu’s course, the only avenue is to threaten his hold on power. Netanyahu’s majority in the Knesset is only 5 seats, and Netanyahu himself is extremely unpopular in Israel.** Pressure from an American President who has established himself in the last few months as perhaps the best ally Israel has ever had might well threaten that narrow margin. That would change his incentives—and likely his behavior—in a way that nothing else could. > > **If Biden intends to shape Israeli policy in the war in Gaza, it is likely his only path.** **Questions-** **Is the US through it’s withholding of weapons attempting to force Netanyahu’s hand?** **Is the US, by withholding the report mentioned in the post below, trying to force Netanyahu’s hand? As in, we’ve got the dirt and we’ll publicize it unless…** > [Washington delays report on Israel war crimes in last minute move](https://pennyforyourthoughts2.ca/2024/05/08/washington-delays-report-on-israel-war-crimes-in-last-minute-move/) **Are both measures being used to influence the Israeli governments plans in Gaza? A sort of carrot and stick measure?**